AlwaysinModeration

MacLeod signed: https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/sports/christian-macleod-son-of-retired-cape-breton-professional-baseball-player-signs-with-minnesota-twins-100618508/

Deadline this afternoon, and a few hundred thousand to spread around….

Interesting that you compared the Scherzer return and Berrios return. I was going to come on here to ask: If you had to choose between Josiah Gray/Keibert Ruiz or Austin Martin/Simeon Woods-Richardson, which would you take?

Yes, college seniors are drafted for $10K pretty regularly to save on cap space, And to give them the dream fulfilled of getting drafted by a major league team.

De Leon was the (former) Reds pitcher who fits this description I wanted them to scoop up. Now that they have some roster space…hope they do so.

How about Berrios for Martin and Woods-Richardson, would that get it done?

No Alex Manoah?

1. Syndergaard (4/80) 2. Maeda 3. Ober 4. Balazovic 5. Ryan Of course, if the Berrios trade nets a MLB ready starter, he might crack the rotation. Josiah Gray would have fit that description nicely. Not sure Mackenzie Gore does-needs more time at AAA.

Looking at the baseball trade values site, it seems unlikely that the Padres would trade Abrams; his value is sky high, and so the Twins would need to put together multiple players to get him. If the Twins are trading Berrios, I think it will clearly be multiple players coming back, as opposed to vice versa. A package that might work would be Hasell, Weathers and Gore (and maybe one extra low level prospect) for Berrios and Rogers. Twins would get more value according to the trade value site, but assuming the Padres are desperate to keep up with the Dodgers, they could do it.

It seems increasingly likely that Berrios will be a Padre by the end of the day. I the Dodgers are trading Ruiz because he is blocked at catcher; perhaps the Padres will consider trading Abrams because they have Tatis as their long-term SS.

I mean…wouldn’t De Leon stand a better chance of contributing to the Twins going forward than Happ?

So, as of now, the top five picks have signed, and seven of the top eight; nine of the top 11. Based on the MacLeod interview, it seems clear he will sign. Across the top 10 picks, three signed at slot, and four (Petty, Miller, Povich, and Yake) signed under, and two signed over; Winkel got $350K over, and Rucker got $50K over. The Twins have $323,600 in cap savings to spend on Birdsell/Cardenas/MacLeod, although it looks like they may have spent some of that on some of the 11-20 round picks. What are the slot values for picks 11-20?

We don’t know what the incentives are, but my question is, why such a long contract offer? How about 4/60 plus some incentives? This gives the Twins a chance to get his services for a few more years, and from his side, if he puts together a string of healthy, MVP-level years, he could set himself up to really cash in on his last major contract.

His BABIP in 2020 and 2021: .385 and .439. He’s got a minor league option and four years of arbitration eligibility left. His post-TJ fastball velocity is up from 91/92 to now 93/95. He throws 65% fastball, 20% change up, 10-15% slider. He had a curveball that he stopped throwing in 2016.

Just looking over De Leon’s minor league, college and Puerto Rican winter league stats. He’s got a fairly consistent track record across all of those levels; extremely high strikeout rates: 12K/9, 3.1BB/9, 7.3H/9, 0.8HR/9, 3.38ERA, 1.16WHIP, across 1800+ minor league batters faced. Those numbers are fairly similar across his 350 college batters faced and 140 Puerto Rican winter ball batters faced. It’s in the majors that he’s seemingly fallen apart: 12.6K/9, 6.6BB/9, 10.1H/9, 2.1HR/9, for an ugly 8.84 ERA and 1.86WHIP. But that’s across 240 batters faced, and most of that has come in 2019, 2020, and 2021, post Tommy John (lost 2018), the pandemic shortened year, and in Cincinnati. Now, maybe he will never find it, but I’d put more money on the 90% sterling track record coming back to the forefront, than the 10% terrible track record being the new norm. He’s from Puerto Rico, and is a year or two older than Berrios. He was traded to the Rays for Logan Forsythe instead of to the Twins for Dozier, but we know the Twins wanted him as a part of a Dozier trade. I say snap him up and give him some of the Happ or Pineda starts down the stretch, and see if Wes Johnson can work a little magic with him.