AlwaysinModeration

It feels like the events of this weekend are making the likelihood of Jenkins getting called up for tomorrow in Sacramento much higher.

I read that as the mound was relocated to St Paul.

Luckily the teams we are rooting to lose…have also all lost more games than they have won. Like the Twins.

And he’s not playing in the second game today, so draw your own conclusions…

Sorry Brian. But you should keep Jenkins anyway.

Always

Just getting a jump on the news. Mark it down. It’s happening before Sept 1. Most likely for the home series against the White Sox. But not impossible that he joins the team in Sacramento or even as soon as this weekend in San Diego. Edit to add: Apologies for the original post. The Twins are currently sitting in the final wild card spot. They have a legit shot at making the playoffs. It seems imperative that Jenkins gets called up before Sept 1 so that a) he can help them make a run at the playoffs and b) he’s eligible for the playoffs should they get there. It’s not if but when. The when has to be in San Diego tomorrow, in Sacramento Monday, or at home against the White Sox next weekend.

That’s a ringing endorsement from your manager.

Hypothetically would Hoffman be in line to work the 9th?

Martin Perez yesterday, Tyler Mahle today, could the Braves please start Chris Paddack tomorrow?

But, to get over .500, which was the point, they’d have to play .594.

Yes, saw it in southern Portugal

Twins went 5-8 against the Royals this season, and came a couple of pitches and a well placed Brooks Lee ground ball from going 2-11. Glad to be done with them. The Royals are 40-63 against every team not named the Twins.

No thanks. He’s 34, hasn’t slugged over 400 (or OBPed over 300) in the past two years. I’d rather see Wallner or any of the top prospects. Edit to add: He’s hitting .207 with a .284 SLG off of lefties this year. In other words, he might be a perfect fit for this Twins lineup!

Ok, this deal makes the deadline make sense. Find a way to call up Jenkins and Culpepper, hope Kremer turns things around a bit, and let’s make a run at a playoff spot

So far the headliner has been…Dean Kremer?

Where is the eye roll emoji when you need it

I feel like we need a separate “fun with numbers” post with AJ Minter’s projections for the rest of the season….50 games, 50 appearances, 50 pitches, 50 outs? Also, Brock, I feel like “truly terrible” for yesterday’s game is a bit hyperbolic. I do find it funny that the Mariners celebrated Cal Raleigh’s game winning groundout like he was a hero, even though he actually grounded out into a rally-killing double play, it just didn’t turn out that way.

Thanks for posting that Fangraphs piece. It’s been several years since I looked at the cost of free agents per WAR and this piece adds a lot of nuance. The piece notes that there is a big jump in price for 2+ WAR players as compared to 1-2WAR players. Jeffers is borderline between those areas. He’s definitely not a 3-5 WAR player commanding the high end of the scale. I’d suggest he’d get less than the 2+WAR group (which was $12.86) and more than the 1-2WAR group (which was $8.5). Let’s split it and say $11mm/ WAR. Now, how many WAR is he projected to get over a 4 (or 5) year contract? You say he’ll be projected/ paid for 2WAR in 27, which is reasonable given his 23-26 track record. In 2028, he will be projected at 1.6WAR or 1.5WAR, depending on the discount factor (the article uses 0.4WAR decline per year, but Tango and Smith have typically used 0.5WAR decline per year). In 2029, his projection goes down to 1.2 or 1.0, and finally, in 2030, he is projected for either 0.8 or 0.5WAR. So, the calculations for his free agent contract broken out like this: 2+1.6+1.2+0.8 =5.6, at $11mm/WAR = 4years. $62mm, or $15.5mm/year Or, using the steeper decline model, which might make sense (especially for a catcher): 2+1.5+1+0.5 =5 at $11mm= 4years, $55mm, or $13.7mm/ year. So Jeffers as a free agent this off season could be looking at a contract in the 4 years, $55-60mm range. (Note that the fifth year projection is 0-0.4 war, or $0-$4.4mm tacked on. If a team is willing to tack on a fifth year in order to land him, they are paying for basically no projected value.) As for next year, at $11mm/WAR, his projected value in 2027 is roughly $22mm. Twins could expect to get roughly even value if they offer him a QO and he accepts. However, Jefferson would be right to reject the $23mm QO offer, because he will get a contract worth $30-$40mm more than the QO offer.

I’d actually say the Twins almost stole this one. It’s too bad Caratini didn’t challenge ball 4. Munoz is tough—must be hard to see that clearly as a batter. If he was catching I bet he challenges that pitch.

Throw to second

Dobnak’s beard looks amazing

I have a relatively easy solution to this. For every inherited runner that scores, divvy up the earned run between the starter and reliever by quarter points based on the inherited base. So for that particular run, which Sands inherited on first base, Prielipp gets 0.25 and Sands gets 0.75. If a reliever comes in with the bases loaded, of all score, each get 1.5 instead of 3 for the starter and 0 for the reliever. If a reliever comes in with a runner on third, he only gets 0.25 if he lets it in, while the starter gets 0.75. (Second base is 0.5/0.5). Number of outs don’t matter.

Strong disagree. The bullpen isn’t going to be perfect every time. This was a great game to have a dud from the bullpen—when the offense/As defense scores 11.

Step 2 of the 15-game winning streak: ✅