jorgenswest

I did notice that when behind Roberts did pinch hit earlier in the game today.

We really think it would have been a good idea that Ober pitch to Ohtani and Freeman a third time? They were 2-3 with a sacrifice fly previously and one of the outs was a sac fly with a .760 xBA. The other out was a line drive out. No reasonable manager should expect that Ober would get through those two batters the third time around without having success the first two times around. Unfortunately the lefty the front office provided him probably isn’t a pitcher a contender would want in their bullpen.

A 2D slice that is a representation of the 3D zone will geometrically look more oval. Pitches in the center horizontally center particularly at the top will have more space to drop in or out of the zone. Pitches on the corners don’t have that space as there is a better chance they will move laterally out of the strike zone.

I agree that it is different and not helpful in making the transition to the majors. I don’t believe it has been consistent across their minor league experience though. Last year minor league executives reported that it was not the same from park to park. They also reported of the trouble ABS had adjusting to the individual strike zones players. Moreover, the strike zone was changed from 22 to 23 then again later during the season in 23. Changing the strike zone three times within a year is anything but consistent.

If the electronic strike zone used in AAA last year is the model, count me out. It was not 3D and not the strike zone. That ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back. A pitcher with more movement will more often have a ball move out of the zone before the midpoint or move into the zone after the midpoint. They need a human to see what the machines are not seeing. Overall that ABS was a disaster and not well received. It was also not consistent between parks. It changed the run scoring environment. The tweak in September was to simply make it larger rather than to make it accurate. Instead of trying to model the strike zone they tried to create a zone that The first move is to get that rectangle off our screens. There are broadcasters who speak of it that thing as anlways accurate. It’s not. If you only take a 2D cross section of the plate to represent the 3D zone it will not be accurate. I think a geometrically more accurate 2D slice of strike in a 3D zone would be closer to an oval. Here is a quote from Morgan Sword, MLB executive vice president of operations Do you really want them to change the major league zone based on what feels wrong to people?

This is the last mention of Miranda and Larnach I found about 30 posts back. Thank @DocBauer. They will both get a shot this year and I think are as likely to have a significant career as Wallner. I haven’t given up on Miranda as a 3B but he was marginal before shoulder injury and may never get it back to 100%. They need Larnach’s bat against right handed pitching. I hope he is back healthy in AAA soon.

I wonder if they should have put Kepler on the IL. He has never hit well with a bad leg.

Is my opinion that the money should have been spent differently valid it all? It wouldn’t seem so with your comments. I think they could have spent the same money differently and built a team that is better for 2024. One way was to keep Polanco and non tender Farmer. The money would be the same. I think that makes this team better in 2024. That is all I have ever said.

What issue have I avoided? Payroll? I accept the drop in payroll. I don’t agree with the allocation of those dollars. Is it fair to say they could have kept Polanco and traded (or non tendered) Farmer and had the same payroll? Farmer plus DeSclafani is virtually the same as Polanco. Is the 2024 team better in that case? I thought so then. I think so now.

I am having a hard time caring about the motivation for the deal here and the back and forth. Did anyone believe then that this 2024 team was better as a result of the trade? I didn’t and it was my comment on the trade. Isn’t that what matters? I hope my beliefs are proven wrong by Topa pitching all star worthy relief.

I guess he did have Wallner to pinch hit for Margot later in the game but I don’t get the Julien move. Would it be better to put those left handed bats 1,3,5,7 in the order to make it a little less rewarding for a manager to put in the left handed reliever? I did appreciate that Jax was used to get the heart of the order in the 8th. I am looking forward to Duran joining Jax and Stewart in this bullpen.

Is it 3-1 in the 9th without Margot getting the walk that moved the runner into scoring position? Maybe. Does that spot in the order bat in the 9th without getting in base in the 7th? The 7th down 3-1 is not the middle innings to me. Unlike the 6th here is no guarantee it will get another at bat. I probably unfairly quoted Chief here because I don’t really disagree but… I don’t find myself frustrated with that move in the 7th. I am frustrated by the lack of everyday hitters on the roster and the over abundance of short side bats. The adds this winter all short sided platoon bats in Farmer, Santana and Margot who rank 6th, 7th and 8th (tied with our injured starter who will never pitch in a Twins uniform). It is horrible roster construction and right handed starters will be a challenge all year. Later in the game opposing managers can neutralize this left handed bats in one inning and the option will be either to concede that inning or pull out your left handed platoon hitter who you might need in the 9th. To me this is the opposite of flexibility. Flexibility is players who can hit pitchers from both sides. Nelson Cruz gave them the flexibility on a more options on the bench because there was never a need to remove him. When you DH a batter like Margot or Kirilloff that is not flexibility. It is devoting two guys to the DH spot in that game. It is the same for 2B or LF and now there are no options in the bench. There was a need for another everyday hitter entering the off season that was only magnified by the loss of Polanco. Opposing managers must love facing rosters like the one we have constructed.

In the line up today

This was far worse than being in first place at the deadline and trading for Mahle. I absolutely want them to take risks then for one of the more talented starters moved at that deadline. They made two moves this year volunteering to take on contracts for players that were not wanted by their organizations. The Mariners had to take on DeSclafani to make their Giants trade work. The Dodgers had to take on an Margot to make the Rays trade work. Neither was going to make those rosters and they found someone to take them off their hands. Once they traded for DeSclafani they stopped looking for alternatives. They have so little confidence in Margot that they started Martin instead when Buxton moved to DH. Falvey didn’t set the budget but he did set the roster. It started with needing to cut 30 million. You don’t payed a short side platoon infielder beyond market and then follow up by taking on the DeSclafani and Margot dollars. When the money is good take a chance on an injured pitcher and solidify the short side platoon. When the money isn’t good they really needed to prioritize the everyday line up and reliable depth. They leave themselves with a real need for an everyday hitter to add to an obviously weak lineup against right handed pitching and no depth in starting pitching.

The next pitcher in line is likely the pitcher is rested when there is a need. Last year Ober appeared to be next in line but Varland got the earlier opportunity since he was rested. The Twins would be wise to sync the player they perceive most ready with the starter more likely to need replacement. I think that is Paddack or Varland so I would line up that pitcher so that they are in sync with those two or maybe a day earlier.

Vazquez was great in the bottom of the 8th. Getting a called strike 3 on the lead off hitter topped by throwing out Witt. Then he wins it in the 9th with the bat. Wow!

We look forward to seeing if Austin Martin can translate his on base skills to the big leagues. Will those skills translate without more power? He has a career 105 ISO is the minor leagues which led to major league projections this year in the 80-99 range. That leads to the following questions. Is there any reason to hope that his ISO is trending up? Can a hitter be a successful every day player with a ISO in the 80-99 range? Any hope? There is at least some reason to hope that his ISO is trending up. One narrative is that the Twins messed him up trying to swing his approach and swing towards more power. I think it was the correct direction. Add a little power to his on base skills and defensive versatility and you find a valuable major league player. The adjustments may have helped. His ISO last year in AAA was 142 following a AA ISO of 93 over the previous two seasons. Somehow the narrative of the Twins failure to get more power misses this change in ISO. Can he be successful? Last year there were four major league regulars with an ISO below 100 in Tim Anderson, Myles Straw, Maikel Garcia and Andrew Benintendi. All were well be below average hitters on the season. In the 100-120 range you will find some average major league hitters in Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner, Jeff McNeill and Ty France. Nick Madrigal has been average in this range in previous seasons. McNeill and France were on a career low end of ISO so it seems like Hoerner and Kwan are the best hopes here. Here is a comparison of their last year in the minors. Martin has more walks at the cost of more strikeouts and a lower batting average. The window is small and he does need to continue with the upward ISO trend to make up for his lower batting average but there is a window for success with a low ISO. I should add that you will also find Luis Arraez here with an ISO of 115 last year. I think he is one of a kind but we can hope.

Martin has very similar hitting numbers to Gilberto Celestino with more speed and defensive flexibility. Hopefully he can combine that with the BABIP luck Celestino had early on to make a difference while Lewis is out.

Martin up. Lewis on IL.

Farmer’s career OPS against right handed pitching is .658. I wouldn’t start him against right handed pitching. Castro may not be much better but he also adds speed when he is on base.

The difference defensively between the two is marginal at best and the bat matters more at 3B. Play the better bat every game.

It would be nice to have another everyday bat for the top half of the line up. Someone like Polanco would really help. Jorge didn’t inspire much confidence at 3B last year but that was without working on it in spring. He isn’t needed there anyway with Castro. His bat is needed. Any everyday top half of the line up bat is needed. Falvey knew the budget. He chose Farmer and DeSclafani over Polanco. The dollars are virtually the same.

The biggest loss is his bat. They have plenty of coverage at 3B. A Castro/Farmer platoon will work with Julien playing 2B. Margot can play across the outfield. They need a bat that can play everyday regardless of position. Who is that bat?

I am fine paying him the 6.25 at last year’s budget level. This year I would have prioritized the smaller budget differently. Farmer needs to show he can hit right handed pitching. If not, he needs to remain in his short side platoon role and they must look elsewhere to replace Lewis. They can’t put a weak bat at a corner.

That wasn’t a play I thought he could make last year. Squared up the lefty also after working the count in his favor. Everyday player?