jorgenswest

I wonder if there are more unmeasured aspects to the catching than the other positions. Many successful teams have employed veteran catchers with pretty empty bats. Why? The Astros main catcher through much of their success could not hit. They won the World Series two years ago with the tandem of Maldonado and Vazquez. Neither was on the team for their bats. If you try to convert their measured defensive contribution into wins it really doesn’t appear to outweigh the deficit with the bat. There must be critical aspects of their contribution that goes unmeasured. This is the first year in many the Astros have not had one or even veteran catchers. Could it be part of their struggle this year? I can’t back up the appreciation I have for Vazquez with data, but I don’t think for a moment he could be replaced by an average or even good minor league catcher. I believe he brings value to the team that is simply not captured very well by the data.

It does feel thin but Varland and Festa do have some upside.

Why debate about pipeline? Do any two people agree on what is in or out of this pipeline? Why does it matter? They have built a very good pitching staff without spending big dollars in free agency. Isn’t that what matters?

Somehow the phrase pitching pipeline got tied to Falvey and Levine. I went to their introductory news conference. Falvey talked about pitching. He spoke about the need to explore every avenue. I think we have seen them add pitching through those various avenues. He spoke about the need to be cohesive and collaborative throughout the system. I believe they are consistent in their approach throughout the system. He spoke about identifying and pursuing top performing people. I think we have seen some quality pitching coaches enter this organization. They entered this organization with a pitching throughout the system that did not miss bats. They took on a Jose Berrios that was 3-7 though 14 starts with an 8.03 ERA. He immediately became a very good starter. Pipeline or not… why does it matter? Fast forward to 2024 and they are number one in K/9 and it really isn’t very close. They pair that with the third lowest BB/9. They have done this without spending significant free agent dollars on pitching. The phrase “pitching pipeline” seems to be a moving target impossible to define. Let’s get rid of it. I don’t know where it started or what it meant to the reporter/podcaster/Twins official that first uttered what has become nonsense. How can it possibly matter if a pitcher meets someone’s definition of pipeline? It does matter that they have built the staff efficiently using their resources. They have built a staff that has been one of the league’s best over the last two years. Isn’t that what we hoped for when Falvey and Levine were hired? Let’s bury the pipeline talk.

I don’t think having so many short side platoon players is a sound strategy. A lefty or two in the line up against a left handed pitcher doesn’t hurt and may actually be a good thing. It doesn’t hurt because they likely won’t face that starter three times. They can be placed in the lineup batting 6th and 9th making it more difficult to target a reliever at a part in the order. The pitch mix changes for a pitcher and maybe gets them off rhythm which could help the right handed bat after the left handed bat. In the winter they really needed an everyday bat or at least a bat to relieve Santana of starting against every right handed pitcher. Buxton could be back after the Toronto series. I think Martin helps the team more. If Buxton is out long term I think they need to give Rodriguez a shot. It won’t hurt his development if he struggles. Play him in centerfield and bat him 9th.

I have a few wonders from the business side. Whenever a team makes the playoffs a big push for those playoff tickets is to commit to a season or partial season ticket package for the next year. Those sales are a big part of the boost in that ticket put base. How did those future sales go during last year’s playoff run? Did the fans respond and support the team through buying ticket plans for 2024? Were disappointing future ticket sales one of the factors in reducing the budget? I have seen sources where the Twins rank 29th in average ticket price or average price for a family of 4. Only the Marlins ranked below them in generating less revenue per ticket. These pages from Statista and Moneygeek are the sources. Moneygeek listed their methodology using data from Seatgeek. I needed an account to see Statista’s source and I chose not to make an account. Their data may also come from seatgeek. Is the rank of 29 close to accurate? Generating money through ticket sales as well as through media rights has to be a big part of St. Peter’s responsibility. It seems as if he has failed on both.

Looks like a change in the forum to show more of the content of a topic. Maybe I am wrong. If topic lines are taking more space I wonder if the pinned topics can dominate the screen so that any new topics are pushed too far down. Limiting the pinned topics or posting only the title to pinned topics might help bring to the front any new or updated content.

Like many stats wins tell the story of the game. The blown save and win in Jax’s line represents yesterday’s story well. WPA also helps tell the story and does a good job of representing Woods Richardson and Correa. Neither stat has value for projection or evaluation.

His entire sample size takes the good with the bad. I think going back two years is pretty typical particularly when looking at slash stats that need a very large sample to stabilize. This year’s small sample is more encouraging because of his play in 2022. If he doesn’t play or played poorly in 2022 there is less hope with his start to this year.

Wasn’t your argument about sample size?

True. Although that 69 mph single doesn’t happen as the inning is over if the swing is called correctly earlier in that at bat.

Does our perception of Alcala’s outing change if Angel Hernandez correctly rules on that check swing and he gets out of the inning with a strikeout?

Wow! 12 in row Castro batting 3rd on a 10 game hitting streak Cole Sands the closer in a real save situation

I don’t think they get to a point where everyone is healthy. If they do get there the moves they make should depend on the point in the season. Castro, Margot and Farmer bring value to this team. I also expect all three to hit better than they did in April. If it is June 1, I would be motivated to keep them and utilize players with options to keep the depth.

He has 695 plate appearances to start his career with a 105 OPS+. That is a pretty fair start where at his age you would expect the next 695 to be better than the first 695.

I am fine with the plan to start him in AAA. Now that he is here and shown success they need to start him more against right handed pitching. He may be the every day bat they needed to find this winter.

Alcala returns

Matt Bowman traded to DBacks for cash.

I got a thumbs down from you once that made me rethink. Thanks.

I agree. Rarely use it but used it today on a front page article that seemed mean spirited ranking when players will leave. I had composed a longer comment on the decision to rank these 6 and then deleted and chose the thumbs down. Not sure what my better move might have been there.

Castro is so valuable to the Twins and will be next year also. It is possible that he will lead the Twins in plate appearances this year without a defined starting position. He is second so far this year just one behind Julien. Last year he was 4th in plate appearances. He is an everyday player for this team without an everyday position. He can run, play key defensive positions well and has shown some pop in his bat. He is fun to watch.

They just sent Boushley back to AAA and will announce a move tomorrow. They could take Boushley off the 40 and add Keirsey. That move might look like a reliever returning to the 26, Buxton on IL and Keirsey added to roster and 40. I am not sure they would want to put him on the 40 and limit their flexibility if it is short term. It would be fun seeing what Keirsey can do. He has earned an opportunity.

I agree. I also believe Wallner will get untracked. His performance last year was real just as Miranda’s was in 2022. He will figure it out.

A request that we focus on solutions and not rehash the decisions winter. What is your solution if it is short term? Long term?

It has been a pleasure watching Byron run the bases and play centerfield again. I hope this is short term. I don’t think the maintenance plan worked last year. Byron needs to healthy to be an asset. If he needs to be down for at least a few days I hope they use the IL and get him fully recovered. Bring up Martin for 10 days and share with Castro. If it looks longer term they need to find a solution for centerfield. I would give the first shot to Emmanuel Rodriguez. Fortunately he is healthy and back in the AA line up. They need his speed and defense. He has on base skills. He is the best upside solution. He might show he is not near ready after a month. The next best longer term solution is Royce Lewis. If Miranda keeps hitting maybe they need to get Lewis prepped for centerfield. Let’s hope Buxton is back shortly. If not, let’s hope Rodriguez is up to the challenge. Otherwise Lewis has the skills to be a great asset in the outfield and an asset that fits well on the roster in the coming seasons. Lee will be ready. Julien looks to be a fixture at 2B. Carlos isn’t going anywhere. Miranda is starting to earn an everyday role. None of those players looks to be an asset in the outfield. Is there a greater likelihood of injury in the outfield? Running the bases is more risky and I don’t think so and you can’t hide a player from injury in any case.