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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Keirsey and Cal Stevenson have a lot in common. Both are 27, played in the PAC 12, were drafted in 2018, are primarily centerfielders that can steal bases. Stevenson is currently on the Phillies bench being used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. His ISO in AAA this year is .184 and Keirsey’s is .185. Stevenson has had the better wRC+(139 to 116) in AAA this year due to his ability to draw walks. Keirsey is getting his first shot. Cal has had several because of his earlier minor league success. That success led him to be put on the 40 man earlier and therefore run out of options earlier. Since then he has bounced around as a DFA quite a bit after being traded a few times early in his career. It seems unlikely that Keirsey is better than Stevenson. Keirsey has not been quite as solid with the bat. To this point Stevenson has provided depth in AAA whose speed and ability to play centerfield will get him cups of coffee while he is in the prime of his career. I don’t think Stevenson would be seen as a Buxton replacement. If so the Twins ought to sign him this winter. He will likely be available.
  2. jorgenswest
    Is it a given that he is already an above average major league centerfielder? He is fast. Does he take a good first step? Does he track the ball well? These are hard to watching the game in person and impossible watching on MiLB TV. The Twins staff should know having watched him. I don’t agree that they needed to call him up to see to evaluate his defense. If they left sitting in AAA a defensively above average major league center fielder that can approach league average with the bat they should all be fired.
  3. jorgenswest
    Not very many good options. Those two did end up with half of the hits.
  4. jorgenswest
    They are their splits in games started by a left handed pitcher. They probably get a few at bats against a right handed pitcher in those games that are part of that record. I appreciate the split. Catchers usually play the full game so this split can be telling for them. Ryan Jeffers for his career has an OPS 70 points greater in games started by a right handed pitcher. He isn’t a better hitter against right handed pitching. He must be feasting on those at bats against lefty relievers later in the game when the right handed pitcher is pulled after two times through the line up. In this era of starters pitching half the game it would seem the wise line up would be put out your best 9 as often as possible. Jeffers is not suffering starting against all those righties.
  5. jorgenswest
    I will add that Walker had a 9 year stretch as a regular with an OPS+ of 101. That is pretty useful particularly through the first few years of arbitration. I think that is a reasonable comp in value that may be a little closer to Julien’s ceiling than this floor.
  6. jorgenswest
    Helman’s wRC+ in AAA is 126 to Keirsey’s 117. In 2023 it was 122 to Keirsey’s 93. Maybe Helman is the better hitter.
  7. jorgenswest
    The comment about ugly got to me. I should probably have just ignored it. I just these guys work their tails off for a chance. Someone could probably get on Keirsey also for not being aggressive on those balls to centerfield but it is an 8-0 lead. Better to play deep and keep the ball in front of him. There are times for aggression on defense and times when a pitcher needs to miss bats. This wasn’t that time.
  8. jorgenswest
    Did you watch the game? Winder did give up 4 hits. All were weak (below 80 mph) that landed in front of the outfielders. Maybe an average major league center fielder or left fielder gets to one or two of those. To me an ugly performance is when hitters are barreling up hitting several balls hard or when a pitcher can’t find the strike zone. If you come in with an 8-0 lead, throw strikes and avoid hard contact you did your job.
  9. jorgenswest
    If he continues to put up wRC+ over 130 in the minors he will get a chance. The Twins signed him from independent and have moved him aggressively.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am not sure how to quantify whether a player is a true centerfielder. Cave was primarily a centerfielder in the minors. In his 5 seasons as a Twin he had an OOA of +3 as a CF.
  11. jorgenswest
    Why would they lose Eeles?
  12. jorgenswest
    Is there really a need to equate a human to trash? It looks to me like Michael Tonkin has worked incredibly hard to get back to the majors. His family has moved all over the place including overseas in his effort. He has had reasonable success over the last two years since returning to the majors and really deserves better from us.
  13. jorgenswest
    First base gets its place at the end of the defensive spectrum but not everybody can play it. The pool of players is larger because left handed throwers can play there unlike the other infield positions and catcher. It doesn’t need the athleticism of other positions but it does require good hands and some good footwork. Is that a fit for Julien? I wonder about his hands. I do know he would work his tail off to get better there. Wallner has not played an inning of first base in the minors or in college or even in college summer leagues. It seems like if that were at all in his skill set he would have seen at least some time there. I did notice that he played center field more often than left or right in college. Margot and Martin have set the bar pretty low for centerfield play. I might give him a shot there particularly at the end of a game after he and Larnach have pinch hit so they can both stay in the game. Miranda is probably a fit. I think outfield is the spot where Lewis can best take advantage of his athletic skills. I wondered about Larnach too. He played just 1 game at first base in a 2017 college summer league. Since he has only played corner outfield I would guess that he isn’t a fit for 1B or someone by now would have played him there.
  14. jorgenswest
    Santana was a success. What about DeSclafani, Topa, Okert, Farmer, Margot, Thielbar and Staumont? They counted on several of these guys to fill the a role on this team. Should they use the same strategy next year and add/retain several inexpensive aging veterans in hopes that one gives them league average play in his role?
  15. jorgenswest
    Eric Longenhagen in his top 43 Twin prospects has him in the others in a group of 27th man types. He describes Keirsey as a “he can play a good enough center field”. An earlier scouting report from Fangraphs gave him a 45 score as an outfielder (50 is major league average). I am not sure if the 45 is outfielders overall or as a center fielder. He is probably below average when compared to the high bar major leaguer center fielders set but that is likely better than Martin or Margot. His bat might not be as strong as their bats. I suspect if he was an above average defensive centerfielder someone would have taken him when he was available in the rule 5 draft last winter.
  16. jorgenswest
    Maybe he should have more confidence in Richards, Theilbar or Okert. suppose he starts warming up one of them after the third batter. Are they ready for batter 6? Probably not. It was 5 pitches to batters 4 and 5. The next batter struck out. Should he take him out after the 6th batter strikes out? In hindsight yes. I am not sure I would have trusted Richards, Okert or Thielbar to have better success against the right handed Jung especially after the strike out.
  17. jorgenswest
    Concur. AAA was the best starting spot for Miranda and Larnach this year. Worked out well.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins were correct to hold onto Larnach and Miranda though they could have sold low on them. I don’t think I would sell low on Kirilloff. They did sell low on Gordon and correctly assessed that he wasn’t going to return to 2022 form. Even that decision gave little value as selling low did not return much help in Okert. I would keep him and hope on his upside until it is time to DFA him.
  19. jorgenswest
    Concur and further evidence that there are no low leverage jobs in the bullpen.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is the biggest challenge and they will figure it out. The ideal, for me, is an ABS and not a challenge system. The ABS can happen in the flow of the game without breaks for challenge or limit on number of challenges. The AAA trial just shows it isn’t ready. Significant inconsistencies had them tweek it last year and back off the ABS this year switching to the challenge system mid season. They don’t back off if it was at all passable right now.
  21. jorgenswest
    The same strike zone for every hitter?
  22. jorgenswest
    Huh? What does all that have to do with how smoothly the game moves along? So far the tech has not worked in AAA despite in season tweaks. They have now taken a step back from the automated strike zone in AAA mid season. I do think the tech will get there but the challenges of a 3D strike zone that changes with every batter are far different from the fixed 2D plane of a tennis court. It isn’t ready yet.
  23. jorgenswest
    Isn’t the game moving along smoothly now? It seems like adding tech can only cause the game to move along less smoothly.
  24. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the work @bean5302 I would just add that the bar for an average major league center fielder is much higher than an average AAA centerfielder. I would think very few on your list would be an above average or even average defender in centerfield when compared against the major leaguers. I think we should expect Keirsey to be a somewhat below average major league centerfielder but probably better than Martin based on his experience. He probably is similar with the glove to Cal Stevenson who is up with the Phillies. Cal in his limited 213 innings over his three cups of coffee has fielding metrics that suggest he is close to average. Cal has the better bat.
  25. jorgenswest
    That shouldn’t keep them from DFAing someone and calling on Keirsey if he would be an above average major league center fielder at the major league level. That he hasn’t been called on leads me to think he probably isn’t at that level. His Fangraphs field and arm scout scores of 45 show him to be below the major league average of 50. Those scores are for a OF and the bar for center field is probably higher. They may also be out of date.
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