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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Is the intention of the post to guess what moves the Twins will make or state an opinion on what the moves they should make? I have no interest in guessing what they will do. I will find out soon enough but I do have thoughts on what I would do. On the pitching side Bowman is DFA’d first. He hasn’t pitched well. Everything is an illusion thanks to a .056 BABIP. His ERA estimators are all in the 5s. I would give Topa the full rehab time and see how Woods Richardson is doing. They may want to get Sands stretched out as a starter if he isn’t doing well. On the hitting side I would like to take away one of the short side platoon bats that tempt Rocco to make so many in game changes. Let Julien or Larnach play against left handed pitching and remove the temptation of Farmer or Margot. I also think they need to give Miranda more playing time at the major league level. He has a 135 wRC+ and is on the bench against right handed pitching with Farmer starting.
  2. jorgenswest
    True. Their left handed batters against left handed pitchers have an OPS of .775. The right handed batters against lefties have an OPS of .708. The right handed batters are pulled down by Farmer and Santana who comprise 23% of those right handed plate appearances with an OPS of .319. Their best hitter against lefties this year is Julien.
  3. jorgenswest
    Jeffers is on pace for 540 plate appearances this year. Last year only 6 players had more PAs with catcher as their primary position.
  4. jorgenswest
    Edouard Julien’s hard work with the glove is evident with the eye and is showing up in the numbers. I think he is at least nearing an average 2B with the glove. Julien is second on the team with +2 OAA behind Buxton’s +3. Julien’s DRS is -1 but his UZR is positive as well as his FRV. Is his defense to the point where they don’t need to replace him at the end of games? The next step is starting against lefties. Farmer started at 2B yesterday and saw the left handed starter twice among his 4 at bats. Would it have been so bad to have Julien batting in that spot and see that lefty twice before the right handed pitcher was brought in?
  5. jorgenswest
    They need both Wallner and Larnach. They need them both as soon as Wallner turns it around. I argued in spring that Larnach needed to be on the roster or they needed to find someone else who could DH against right handed pitching. There was a lot of push back about the need for a right handed platoon outfielder and they ended up filling that spot with Margot. I still believe that additional bat against right handed pitching is important even if it means that Julien or Kirilloff or Larnach needs to start against a lefty. I far prefer seeing one of them start against a lefty than seeing someone like Vazquez at DH or in the line up at catcher more than necessary. They invested their resources this winter to hit left handed pitching better. Take a look at tonight’s line up. Did they invest wisely? Would it be so awful to have that extra bat against right handed pitching and replace Farmer with Julien in this lineup? If not Farmer then Larnach or Kirilloff at DH in place of Vazquez? JeffersDH R 3 12 0 .258 .822 BuxtonCF R 1 10 0 .247 .684 MargotRF R 1 2 0 .171 .521 Miranda3B R 1 3 1 .212 .590 Santana1B S 0 3 0 .149 .419 MartinLF R 1 4 0 .244 .692 VázquezC R 1 3 0 .150 .392 Farmer, K2B R 0 2 2 .073 .322 Castro, WSS S 1 4 1 .169 .538 Edit: I wasn’t expecting the bottom 5 of this order to put up a 4 spot. I hope they keep prove wrong repeatedly here in out.
  6. jorgenswest
    Julien was in a platoon the moment they tendered Farmer. Julien didn’t even start opening day.
  7. jorgenswest
    They only have 4 bench spots so at least 5 players need to be every day players. Those 5 were likely Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco prior to the Polanco trade. That is in the best of circumstances with everyone healthy. Once Polanco was traded they lost an everyday bat. Even after signing Santana I was still advocating for an everyday bat. Others including Twins podcasters saw it different advocating for a right handed platoon outfielder instead. We got Margot and it was clear that Santana was the 5th everyday bat. At least the Twins have their beloved flexibility at DH.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think I am in the same place but two months feels longer in the midst than it did before the season. “I am more concerned about the decisions to retain acquire players at an age where decline is a real possibility and might be retained. After two months of the season if Santana, Farmer or DeSclafini have dropped off they need to release them. They are really betting on spreading the dollars on those three aging players rather than getting one better player with the dollars and filling the other two spots from within. I hope the bet pays off. ”
  9. jorgenswest
    Nothing stood out but I did this when they traded for DeSclafani so I may have been more pitcher focused. This administration kept Logan Morrison so there may be no line for a position player.
  10. jorgenswest
    The earliest release of a veteran free agent I can find is Jason Marquis in 2012. The front office is different but the owner paying the bills is the same. He was DFA’d after game 41 and 7 starts. At that time he had an ERA of 8.47 with 14 walks and 12 strikeouts in 34 innings. His fWAR was -0.7. His 3 million dollar salary would probably equate to something in the 4-5 range now. The earliest release by the current management might be Blake Parker. He was DFA’d after game 100. He had trouble with walks and home runs in his high leverage role with an fWAR f -0.2. His salary was 1.8 million. I think it is critical that the Twins do draw a line for vets with expiring contract. Truly awful performance shouldn’t get beyond the Marquis Line or the quarter pole of the season. Hovering around replacement level performance shouldn’t get beyond the all star break. Did it work out? Hometown product Cole De Vries was brought up to replace Marquis. He was 5-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 16 starts. Marquis was picked up by San Diego and was 6-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 16 starts. Taylor Rogers had already taken over the closer role from Parker so it is harder to find a parallel. Zach Littell may be the closest by date and use in the bullpen but Devin Smeltzer was recalled with the move. They also added Randy Dobnak about 10 days later. The three had ERAs of 2.68, 3.86 and 1.59 respectively. Parker struggled even more with the home run ball in Philadelphia.
  11. jorgenswest
    Maybe. They could then stretch out Sands as a starter in AAA.
  12. jorgenswest
    I should have used the phrase “desperation mode” which was sadly predictable. The key for me is adding starting pitching depth and wondering whether Sands can help. The schedule with the White Sox ahead and the return soon of Duran and Topa should help with the stress on the pen. If the White Sox stress the bullpen against the rest of the Twins rotation they have bigger problems than Sands can fix. You would hope sandwiched between Lopez and Ryan starts the bullpen could handle the immediate stress. As for Alcala he is not the key piece here. He did give up a 2 run home run in his inning today. No runs were scored in his previous two innings but they can go to Staumont or someone else. That pitcher will likely go back down when Topa or Duran is ready.
  13. jorgenswest
    Varland may benefit from a reset in AAA. Woods Richardson looked good in his first major league start. He might be the best option though he has been inconsistent in AAA. Festa has a nice ERA but 11 walks in 12 innings. With his lack of command he is averaging 3 innings a start. I might start Sands in a bullpen day instead. Why not bring back Alcala (optioned the 14th) and send out Varland? I think Alcala is eligible to return the 24th. Start Sands on Wednesday with a hopefully rested pen following Lopez. Sands has used four pitches this year which can work as a starter. He has thrown as many as 35 pitches in relief. Can he start out approaching 50 and build from there? I don’t want to continue the debate about whether the Twins intended to leave themselves without depth in the rotation. The reality is that they don’t have any depth in the rotation whether intended or not after their winter moves. I an interested in thoughts about whether it is worthwhile to see if Sands can add to that depth.
  14. jorgenswest
    I followed the game today. I knew he was doing OK, hitting balls with good velocity and not striking out very often. Wallner, unfortunately, struck out four times today.
  15. jorgenswest
    Isn’t he hitting .400 with 2 strikeouts and 3 walks in 13 plate appearances? The numbers probably don’t mean anything other than he isn’t striking out half the time but I don’t get what you are seeing. Perhaps you have been to the games which would be way more meaningful than watching on MILB or certainly looking at stats. edit: of his 8 balls in play 4 have an exit velocity over 100 MPH
  16. jorgenswest
    Found Dan Hayes reported 5 days ago he is still in rest/recovery phase.
  17. jorgenswest
    Should the previous two innings and I think 41 pitches factor in? His third time through the line up thus far was a walk, triple and fly to outfield. Maybe that should factor in also.
  18. jorgenswest
    Did you see the three sacrifice flies? How about the ball to the right side that moved the runner to third with 1 out? Did you see the ball in play that scored Martin? The batters did a much better job with runners in scoring position. They put the ball in play. Four runs scored as a result. That doesn’t happen if they are striking out.
  19. jorgenswest
    Camargo will go back down with Kepler’s return. Meanwhile Martin, Larnach and Miranda get more time to earn their spot in this roster. Any update on the return to AAA of Brooks Lee?
  20. jorgenswest
    The only conclusion is that this is the line up Rocco knows gives them the best chance to win tonight. He needs to be right. I would have done it differently. Fly ball pitcher and 5 from the left side lessens the chance of groundballs to 3B. I am putting my best hitter against Flaherty at 3B. I hope Rocco did also. Fly ball pitcher and wind. I am not sure I want AK in the outfield. It seems like DH or 1B might be better fits with Martin in the outfield. I acknowledge there is a greater chance that Martin and Miranda make a mistake. Do they also have a better chance of making something happen? Again. Rocco needs to be right.
  21. jorgenswest
    His current injury was from fouling a ball off his knee on opening day. Instead of going in the IL immediately he returned 5 days later. They haven’t had a healthy Kepler for even one full game in 2024.
  22. jorgenswest
    Sold me. He was injured on opening day. I believe I wrote at the time they should IL him because he has shown he has shown in the past that he hits poorly with a bad leg. His OPS+ is not independent of that injury. That injury resulted in playing a hobbled Kepler followed by the injury replacements. I believe they are really missing a healthy Kepler.
  23. jorgenswest
    No one does flexibility at DH like the Twins. Imagine the envy of teams that have tied up there DH spot to essentially one batter. The Twins spread out their DH duties and even Vazquez and Margot get a chance at DH. Baseball rules give teams the opportunity to put a poor defender with a really good bat in the line up every day. It is often a cost effective way to add an everyday bat to the middle of the line up. Justin Turner is on a one year 13 million dollar contract. jD Martinez signed late and has a one year 12 million dollar deal. Jorge Soler has an AAV of 14 million. Joc Pederson 12.5. Rhys Hoskins has a AAV of 17 million. The Twins could have spent the money differently and added any of these bats. They chose their vision of flexibility and the short sided platoon. In reality there was more flexibility with Nelson Cruz and he was in the roster when they carried one less bat. Having so many batters you don’t trust to hit from both sides of the plate isn’t flexibility.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think a lot depends on how Wallner personally was responding to the struggle. We can’t see that. He may need the fresh start now.
  25. jorgenswest
    There is still time for Larnach and Wallner to learn and grow. Morneau in his third season had an OPS+ of 93 and a truly awful month of August that he entered with a nearly 800 major league PAs. It was Cuddyer’s 6th season before he posted an OPS+ over 100. I think the Twins utilized all his options moving him back and forth as he developed. Wallner’s success he showed last year is just as real as the struggle he has shown this year. There is a good chance he finds the successful swing again.
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