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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I am with you everything with the exception of giving Larnach a first base glove. it seems like the obvious play. A first baseman doesn’t need a good arm or good range. A first baseman can be left handed. For some reason Trevor Larnach has never played an inning of first base in the majors. He never played first base in college. He did play one game in the Cape Cod summer league in 2017. One. That is really unusual for a left handed throwing corner outfielder. It really helps to have good hands and feet to play first base. The Twins have not been shy about playing players around the field in the minors. Larnach played AA in Pensacola in 2019. The Twins AA team used 9 players at first base. Alex Kirilloff played 35 games there. It was his first time at 1B since being drafted in 2016. They didn’t use Larnach at 1B.
  2. jorgenswest
    The velocity on his sinker (primary pitch in 2023) has not approached his average velocity on that pitch in his only successful year. Do we expect that it will average 95 and touch 97 on occasion once he gets a few more outings in?
  3. jorgenswest
    I found his approach at the plate in his first training game encouraging. First at bat. First pitch down the middle. Line drive single. Second at bat. Takes ball 1 and ball 2. He took a called strike pitch 3 but he was ahead in the count. The pitch was in the upper away part of the strike zone. Pitch 4 was an outside middle strike that he lined out to left field. Third at bat. First pitch center up in the strike zone. Ground out. His approach didn’t work last year. I can’t argue with his approach yesterday. The one called strike was when he was ahead 2-0. He should shrink the strike zone when ahead. I suppose he could have taken that first strike in at bat 3 but at this point I would rather see him error on the side of aggressiveness.
  4. jorgenswest
    I do agree about the Twins needing to select the best 5. I have no idea how the determine which pitchers are the best 5. Data that I have access to from spring games is virtually worthless. The sample is far too small and skewed even further by varying levels of competition. The skilled eyes of those seeing the pitchers every day in training and games will be the best measure. I firmly believe spring training matters. I also know that spring training stats are meaningless.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would agree that there were no red flags for Topa. I also don’t think he did anything today to offer hope that he can repeat his one good season. The velocity on his sinker, which was his primary pitch in that good season, centered about 91. In 2023 his average velocity on the sinker was 95. I don’t think it is unusual for velocity to be lower at the beginning of spring training. I do think the Twins need to see average velocity hover around 95 before putting him on the 26 man roster.
  6. jorgenswest
    How would that be helpful to the future of the Twins? Why do we need to know? Seems like the best route to a new owner is a private process.
  7. jorgenswest
    You had to wonder why their interest was leaked so early in the process. I don’t see how the leak would benefit the Pohlads. It doesn’t benefit the Ishbia group unless they want to put leverage on the White Sox.
  8. jorgenswest
    I have learned to check for myself. Bader’s wRC+ L/R 2024: 70/93 2023: 151/35 2022: 66/89 2021: 101/110 Source: Fangraphs
  9. jorgenswest
    Miranda’s OOA last year at 1B was 0 in 100 innings. For his career it is -4 in 698 innings. Even assuming that he has not improved over the career number, how much should we worry about an out every 19-20 games? He will need to make it up with the bat. It will be his bat that determines the playing time. Julien did drop last year in OOA. It could be the shift. He had a -4 in 622 innings. His bat in 2023 would easily make up the difference. It will be his bat that determines his playing time. Lewis had a positive OOA. He makes some bad throws but must make up for it with range. It won’t be their gloves that keep them off the field. It will be mediocre bats that keep them out of the line up.
  10. jorgenswest
    It is really hard to hit major league pitching. The typical AAA pitcher is much closer to the typical AA pitcher than a major league pitcher. The jump is huge. For most players it takes time with a mix of success and an abundance of failure. The depth of those failures will be new for many players and they will need to learn how to respond to it. I don’t know if Lee will be a successful regular in the major leagues. He may need to utilize his three options to get there. Let’s get to that third option and lots more major league PAs before we see this as make or break. I am hoping for a make this year but if much is spent in AAA I won’t call it a break.
  11. jorgenswest
    I would not assume that the path to the majors is any quicker from the bullpen. It wasn’t in Ragans case. If he were having success as a lefty in the bullpen in 2023 there would have been no need to trade for Chapman. I would have the goal of a healthy year. Maximizing those healthy innings will be give the best hope that he will be helpful to this organization down the road. I think the best way to accomplish that is the regular work of a starter in the minors gradually increasing the number of pitches. Once he puts a healthy season in the books they can plan for how he best fits in the majors.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Rangers did not have enough patience or trust in his health with Ragans. They would not have traded a top half of the rotation starter if they saw that in his near future. Is this a lesson for the Twins? It will be a long wait. Ragans second surgery was March of 2018. It was the second half of 2023 before he was effective again. Prielipp had surgery on July 18, 2023. If he needs Ragans path, it is unlikely the Twins can wait that long.
  13. jorgenswest
    That won’t be good enough. Even though the value of 1 to 2 WAR exceeds his contract it will not help this team win games especially if it comes with a full season of health. Lots of playing time and 1-2 WAR from your first baseman will be a result of a batting line that isn’t close to good enough. He needs to approach Santana’s worth to help this team contend. Fangraphs had Santans’s worth at almost 25 million. France’s 21-22 numbers approach that level. Anything short of that and they need to move on. Quickly.
  14. jorgenswest
    There will be injuries and opportunities. The only thing that will stop Miranda or Julien or Larnach from taking the next step and thriving is their own mediocre play. The frustrating part about signing guys like France is the patience the Twins seem to have with mediocre play from veterans where it feels like there is little hope they will move beyond mediocre.
  15. jorgenswest
    I had to wonder about his splits. He was better at home than on the road last year. His wRC+ was 103 on the road which is very close to his career wRC+ on the road of 105. I would stick with Miranda and Julien. A wRC+ of 105 for a DH/1B is closer to DFA level than worthy of giving up assets.
  16. jorgenswest
    Intriguing. MLB has a formula for competitive balance picks. I can’t argue one or an another if it effective at finding the teams that need that competitive balance. Assuming it is a good measure… Let’s move those picks to the start of the draft. Let’s make them conditional based on spending enough vs revenue in order to earn those picks. Let’s determine the order by record of those teams and reward the team with the best record with the first pick. I can see several possible results that would be beneficial to me. Reward smaller market teams for their efforts to compete Competitive balance picks can be traded now but imagine the value if they are at the top of the draft Would there be fewer sellers at the deadline if teams are fighting for wins and better draft position? Fewer sellers will for the rich teams to pay up more for their trade deadline acquisitions I am with Mike in his earlier comment also. It isn’t World Series or bust for me. I want to watch a season full of competitive baseball games. This will help.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is it a given that his defense in center field is well worth a bench spot? I don’t know what that is based on. It must not be the on the eyes of the Twins staff that sees him every day. They have had a need and not turned to him. It certainly isn’t based in the limited data we have from his play in the minors. That data does not look like a player with good range. I would like to be more confident in his glove but other than anecdotal reports I don’t know what to go on. Is the entire Twins staff so inept that they can’t see an above average major league defender in CF? Has he had a string of several years in the minors where he consistently had fewer opportunities in centerfield than his teammates leading to a lackluster RF/9? Austin Martin had minor league RF/9 numbers of 3.13 in 2023 and 3.24 in 2024. With the same teams Keirsey was 2.46 and 2.68. His best is 2.76. Maybe balls just don’t get hit his way when he is out there. Help me with some data that points to a defense well worth a bench spot. I want it to be there. I don’t want the Twins continuing this cycle of decline phase stop gap free agents. With Emmanuel Rodriguez close, I would have gone with Keirsey/Martin/Castro with no expectation that any can play average major league level defense in CF.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am not confident of either. Keirsey’s wRC+ in the minors is not a match for “good potential offensively”. It might if he were in AAA and 23. You could hope for a big step up. I don’t see it in the glove either. @bean5302 has done the work on this but his range factor numbers are very uninspiring. One or two mediocre seasons might be bad luck but it is throughout his minor leagues. Take a look at AAA the last two years. Austin Martin is getting to significantly more chances than Keirsey. I also didn’t get that impression watching some AAA games on TV. Balls that I thought could be outs were landing in front or to the side. Neither is a good measure or evidence that he is a liability but I don’t think “very dependable” is a fit either. It was clear last year that Martin was not a passable center fielder yet. Keirsey is likely better but the bar for average major league center fielder is very high. Keirsey might be mediocre in that group. Bader is among the best. I think the question is whether that defense is worth devoting a bench spot to a veteran with that one plus skill or go with Martin/Keirsey hoping to get good enough play in CF and a comparable or better bat while spending the resources elsewhere,
  19. jorgenswest
    Urias doesn’t have options. He has hit below .200 the last two seasons. He also appears to have a passable but borderline glove to play SS. He probably needs to be a better defender at SS to get a major league contract in a utility role. He probably needs to show a better bat to get a major league contract as a starting 2B or 3B. His best option is to look for a minor league deal with a team that has infielders with an injury history in front of him. The Twins fit that description. I would rather add him on a minor league deal than a veteran back up SS in the decline phase of their career on a major league contract. No to Paul DeJong type. Yes to a minor league deal to 28 year old with some major league success
  20. jorgenswest
    The four players who earned the extra picked all were elite prospects. Two of them peaked at #1 and the other two at #2. Jenkins is near that territory. The other two are not. I think Rodriguez can help this team this year. He should be in strong consideration for a starting outfield job. I think he can combine good defense with a wRC+ over 100 as a result of walks and power combined with a mediocre batting average. That won’t win a rookie of the year crown but will help the Twins win games. Would there be incentive for the Twins not to promote him at all hoping that another year of development will help earn the extra pick in 2026? I wouldn’t think so but the incentive can work both ways.
  21. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe the splits show inconsistency or necessarily suggest an improved skill level. I think the right handed side is simply the result of the small sample any player would have against a left handed pitcher. It takes a very large number of plate appearances for slash stats to stabilize. If I only had the BR stat lines to judge improvement of skill level in splits, I think I would track the strike out rate and walk rates over time. They stabilize much quicker. If the strikeout rates showed significant improvement I would be hopeful.
  22. jorgenswest
    The strikeout and walk rates in the low minors can be deceptive. Some pitchers have stuff so good that the over challenged batters make so little contact and every count goes deep. That lack of contact and deep counts leads to an increase in walks (and strikeouts) as opposed to weak contact outs. I would be more concerned about a pitcher that relies and weak contact outs with lower strike out and walk rates up to AA. I think that weak contact will progress to solid contact too often as they move up the ladder. The Twins would have much better data to analyze whether the walks are a result of poor command or deep counts. With the data I can see I would prefer the high strikeout and walk pitcher in the lower minors to the high contact low walk rate pitcher.
  23. jorgenswest
    Experience leads to instinct. It is possible he will become a passable centerfielder. His bat is his ticket though. He needs to get on base at a high rate to have a career. How much should we get worked up about an OAA of -4 across 33 starts in centerfield? Is that about one out every 8 games? Certainly the Twins have bigger problems than that to fix. If he can get on base it seems like he should be able to make up for that in a bench role even if the improvement with experience doesn’t get him to the positive side of the ledger.
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they are poor at evaluating defensive skill. I think they prioritize batting as they drafted players like Julien, Keaschall, Steer and Schobel. They all moved infield positions in college. If any of them had the defensive skill to play exclusively at SS in college and stay their through the minors they would have been drafted earlier. In Julien’s case he moved from 2B to 3B. The Twins had to know that they were going to be questionable to stay up the middle. College shortstops don’t often stick at shortstop but particularly if they played significant time at other positions. Similarly if they end as college 2Bs they often move to a corner by the time they get to the majors. The days of the good glove/weak bat middle infielder is gone. A good bat is critical. I do wonder if Keaschall’s bat appears ready before his glove as was Julien’s case two years ago, should they bring him up? Should they have patience to let his glove develop at 2B or CF in AAA?
  25. jorgenswest
    The Orioles’ trade for Burnes happened right after the proposed sale was announced though the sale wasn’t approved and finalized until about two months later. The Twins have been quiet this winter as the sale process has moved forward. A sign that a deal is imminent might be a trade for someone like Cease.
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