jorgenswest

Martin and Keirsey both played in AA in 2022 and AAA in 2023-2024. In each of those three season Martin had the better wRC+ at their common level though they were both awful in 2022. Martin is 2 years younger. I would not describe Keirsey’s wRC+ of 119 last year as fantastic. It is good. Probably in the second quartile of minor league centerfielders. The top was Cal Stevenson unless you go down to 250 PAs and find Ji Hwan Bae of the Pirates. Stevenson and Keirsey have a lot in common. They both were drafted in 2018 out of the PAC12 and have similar skill sets. Cal has hit much better than DeShawn in the minors but hasn’t hit in the majors yet. Cal has been available on waivers multiple times. The Twins are willing to believe in Keirsey enough to give him a valued 40 man roster spot. I don’t think he has done anything in the minors to merit more belief. There are peers that have performed much better in the minors and yet to be successful in the majors.

In my old age my first reaction to any change is not a positive one. This won’t keep me from watching baseball though. On the positive side this rule change will give opportunity for more in game engagement about how to utilize that one golden at bat. It will likely provide more exciting moments over a season. Elite defenders may get more opportunity as teams will know they can bat for them in a key spot during the game, There is a downside though. Teams that can afford the elite game changing players are going to benefit more. The wealthy teams will have an Ohtani to use in that extra at bat. Over the course of the season that will be a great advantage. Records will be broken. Elite players may approach 800 players appearances in a season. I think it will increase the divide between the large and small market teams and that will not help. Maybe a better solution to generate more engagement and exciting moments is to allow reentry. A player reentering would need to be in the same spot in the batting order. If Larnach hits for Vazquez in the 9th spot then they can use either player in that 9th spot. Vazquez can return and they can alternate but both can’t be in the game at the same time. I think it could generate debate about how to best utilize those spots. I don’t think it increases the divide between the large and small market teams. Teams that roster wisely and deploy their players wisely should gain an advantage. It isn’t going to impact the individual single season records. It would not add time to the game unless it was decided that pitchers could reenter. We have enough injuries to pitchers as it is. Let’s not have reentry for pitchers. I prefer this solution but I still don’t like change. I will keep watching though.

Rosario’s inclusion would essentially make it a 39 man roster for much of the year and reduce his option count by 1. There is risk in putting him on the 40 man too early. The Twins will need reinforcements at time from AAA. Helman with his positional flexibility, speed and contact skills can be called on for any position other than catcher. That said… It really isn’t a choice between Helman and Rosario. They have a space for both on the 40 right now and can still DFA Helman later if it will improve the roster. I think this was all about their assessment of Rosario’s readiness to contribute in 2025.

It seems unlikely that he will stick as an up the middle of the field player. The first sign is that he did not start as a shortstop in the organization. Major league see one basemen almost always play some SS in the minors. @Cody Christie offers Pedroia as a comp but Pedroia’s primary position in AAA before he called up was SS and he started in the organization as a SS. Keaschall did have an injury that led him to DH/1B for his last month. He also had DH stretches in May of 24 and the end of his first season with the Twins. When in the field he alternated between 2B and CF with a few games at 3B. His three stretches as DH/1B as well as his moving between infield and outfield suggest that he is unlikely close to ready to be a major league 2B. Fangraphs prospect report scores his fielding at 30/45. Maybe he can get to that 45 but his defense is not knocking at the door and he will need a lot of time in AAA to develop as a 2B or CF. They didn’t give that time to Julien when his bat appeared ready. Will they follow the same path with Keaschall?

The title makes it seem like the Twins failed here. If anything it indicates to me a plan to contend and use those 40 man spots on players more likely to contribute this year. Winder outperformed his draft position. Only one pitcher drafted #214 has pitched in more games or has more career WAR. The reality is getting major league time and any positive production out of a player drafted in that range is the exception. Severino was a 2B at 17 in the Braves organization. That is a red flag that it will be hard to find a position. No speed. No glove. You have to really hit and he couldn’t cut down the strikeouts. He may break out at 28 like Rooker but no team can or should keep a guy around that long to find out. The 40 spots and eventually major league roster spots are too valuable particularly for teams planning to contend. There aren’t bench spots for a back up 1B/DH.

I agree. Build a team to contend. Sell at the all star break if it does not work out.

Thanks for the work. I don’t see how they move Paddack’s salary and then sign Turnbull. Why wouldn’t the other team sign Turnbull in the first place? Maybe they can find a team that prefers Paddack. The Dodgers did something similar last preferring Hernandez to Margot. They found a team to take on 4 million of Margot’s salary and used the 4 million to sign Hernandez. The Twins could have signed Hernandez in the first place. It would be nice if they raised the payroll a bit to sign Goldschmidt. If they aren’t contending at the all star break they should be able to move him even if he is just hitting around league average. If he is clearly above league average the return will be a bonus. If he hits well and they contend and make the playoffs the second half salary will be worth it. I would rather they avoid the veteran short side platoon outfielder this year. Let the lefties hit or sign an everyday player.

No mention of Marcelo Mayer’s injury history. He missed half of 2023 with shoulder issues and 2024 with back issues. I think the Red Sox would be wise to trade him for a good starter. I have no interest in a late blooming reliever entering his 33 year old season. Didn’t we try that last year? With velocity in the low 90s there is no space for decline.

A few thoughts on Keaschall… I am not sure he will stick at 2B. He didn’t start as a shortstop like many second basemen. They have also played him in the outfield as well as 1B and 3B. Are they trying to find a fit. If he is to stick at 2B I think he needs a near full season in AAA. It is encouraging that he is number 63 in the pipeline. That number 63 ranking is probably closer to a player ranked around 200 than a top 10 player. Go back 5-10 years of the pipeline and look at the other 63s. 2014 Zach Lee - 12 major league innings. Peaked in the ranking at #45 2015 Kevin Plawecki - 2.3 WAR across 8 major league seasons as a back up catcher. 2016 Victor Robles - 9.5 WAR across 8 major league seasons. Peaked in the rankings at #4 with thee season in top 10 2017 Dominic Smith - 0.9 WAR across 8 major league season. Peaked at #51. 2018 Heliot Ramos - 2.3 WAR in 2024 at 25 after two seasons of a combined -0.8 WAR. Four seasons on top 100 list. 2019 Griffin Canning - 4.7 WAR across 5 seasons. Looking at the 12 players in the surrounding 62 and 64 ranks you will find a greater range with several not making it at all and three that are significant players. Trea Turner followed up his #62 ranking with an #11 the next year. Julio Urias followed up his 64 ranking with a #8 and #4. Mookie Betts followed up his #62 ranking to be #14 midseason tearing up AA and AAA and spent the last third of the season in the majors. There is reason to be encouraged that Keaschall will contribute in the major leagues but it is going to take patience. Will he take a step towards the top 10? Will he be a useful player across several major league season like Plawecki? Will he need to get to his last option like Ramos? It is very unlikely that he will be a significant major league player in 2024. There is the hope of Mookie Betts who needed just 464 more minor league PAs before hitting the majors and not looking back. Betts wasn’t coming off an injury in his previous season though. I don’t see a game changing major league debut in 2025. I used baseball reference WAR for convenience of quick access to peak ranks.

They have gone from four salaries to two salaries in the top end management of the club. I wonder if they also have thinned the rest of the workforce supporting Twins baseball.

Do we know Keaschall can play 2B as well or better than Julien? He hasn’t played very much 2B in the Twins organization. He had 44 games at 2B, 24 in outfield, 13 at 1B and 2 at 3B. He also has 55 at DH but the bulk of those were after the arm trouble. It seems like most second basemen start as shortstops. Players that start at 2B often move to a corner like Yunior Severino. I haven’t seen any of Keaschall’s games in person but his use in the minors makes me wonder if he will need to move to corner. In any case if they want him to develop at 2B they should give him the bulk of the season in the minors.

His bat will play well there.

These teams have yet to adjust as measured by OAA at 2B. Their primary 2B is listed in parentheses. Dodgers -3 (Lux -4) Yankees -5 (Torres -7) Astros -7 (Altuve -8) Orioles -7 (Westburg -7) The Twins matched the Dodgers at -3 with Julien at -4. Imagine how much better those teams will perform next year once they join other teams in responding to the MLB rule change on shifts. The Twins can get by with a below average defensive 2B as long as he makes up the difference with the bat. If Julien can approach his rookie performance with the bat he will be an asset at 2B.

If they can trade Correa and end up a better 2025 baseball team then make the move. I suppose that is possible but it won’t happen with a return of minor leaguers and replacing his salary with three mediocre players on team friendly contracts. I will add that the Twins were 42-43 in Correa’s 85 starts.

On surplus players… In 2024 there were 17 position players that played the majority of their games at the major league level. They did that with just two catchers. Those 17 players spent more of the 2024 season on the major league roster than in the minors. I would not count on Keaschall or Eeles or Helman as part of those 17 but I do expect one or two of them will get some major league playing time. There isn’t a surplus. They need major league caliber players with options. On Julien… If he hits close to his 2023 level they will find a spot for him. Mediocre play at second base can be offset with an above average major league bat.

I would be searching for Seven Guys. They need at least 7 they can count on when constructing a roster. Add to that with two catchers and two utility men leaving them with one platoon pairing to start the year. They should roster no more than one short side right handed platoon bat. Every other right handed bat has to be able to hit right handed pitching or contribute defensive flexibility. I really don’t believe it is a competitive disadvantage to start Wallner against a lefty. Place him towards the bottom of the order and he likely only sees that lefty twice while ready to crush that middle inning right handed reliever. I also think having a few lefties in the line up can throw that left handed starter off rhythm. Maybe they get Wallner out but are less effective against the next batter. Let’s start a search for seven guys. Right now I have Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Miranda, Rodriguez and Lee. Add Jeffers, Vazquez, Castro, Julien and Larnach. Find at most one short sided platoon bat. If they want to spend the dollars to upgrade that group and send out someone with options that is preferred as long as they add an everyday player to replace them.

Why did you choose WAR sole measure towards determining most valuable? Aren’t there things valuable to the team not measured in WAR? Could a reliever ever win? Why Baseball Reference WAR over Fangraphs WAR? Wouldn’t it be better to at least report both?

Given their self imposed budget constraints, I think the Twins have to bet on the upside of their younger, controllable and inexpensive players to start the season. The alternative is to bet on getting one more year out of an inexpensive aging veteran who we know they aren’t going to release if they struggle. I would go with Miranda over the alternative.

In ranking hitting ability I would use wRC+ over WAR. OPS+ and dRC+ can also be helpful. Those three can vary some in a season sample so I would probably look at 2-3 seasons weighing the most recent more. WAR has a lot of noise and can be very different for the same player in the varied calculations. It is a stat that grows with more playing time and hard to compare with players of differing plate appearances. It includes a positional adjustment so games as a DH will be worse than the same batting line as a corner OF. It is also a base running factor that isn’t very consistent year to year.

I have thought about Larnach at 1B also. I am not a believer that anybody can play 1B though or that it isn’t an important position. It is an option for a lot of players because handedness, arm strength and range are not critical. Good hands are critical and it helps to have good feet. The reality is that Larnach did not play an inning of 1B in college or the minors. Wallner hasn’t either though he played some CF and pitched in college and they may not have wanted to add 1B. It seems like a corner OF would have seen some action at 1B if his skills were any fit at all. I think Wallner and Larnach are strictly corner OFs and I think there is space on the roster for Rodriguez and the two of them. It will be OK if two of them were in the line up against a lefty. Bat them in the bottom half of the order and the starter will be out of the game before they see him a third time.

The comments about Diego Cartaya don’t match up with his performance. He hasn’t hit since 2022 with below league average marks in AA and AAA. He hasn’t controlled the run game allowing 195 stolen bases with 41 caught stealing over the last two years. Rushing and Cartaya both split between AA and AAA last year. Cartaya had an OPS of .686 and Rushing .896. Rushing threw out 30% of runners to Cartaya’s 16% and was Tushing was run on less often. In addition, Cartaya has one option year remaining and Rushing doesn’t need to be put on the 40 until after the 2025 season giving him 4 years before running out of options. It seems like the Dodgers would be fools to trade Rushing over Cartaya. Cartaya seems more likely a 2025 DFA candidate than someone ready to take over the Dodger’s catching duties in 2025.

This is about Rodriguez so I assume your comments of Keirsey is your concern that the Twins will not give Rodriguez a shot since they not give Keirsey a shot. Keirsey up a wRC+ of 119 in his second stint in AAA. He put up a wRC+ of 123 in his second stint in AA. That isn’t encouraging and suggest he will struggle to hit at the major league level. It does not suggest major league readiness with the bat. The numbers and improvement from his first stints do offer some hope that he will take a step towards 130-150 given enough time. Rodriguez in his first stint in AA had a wRC+ of 203 which followed seasons of 145 and 196 in A+ and A. That is a whole different world of minor league performance.

Does he have an option left? I would much prefer Kirilloff on the 40 man at his arb salary than a short side platoon right handed batting veteran outfielder without options. You know that veteran will be on the roster all year no matter how they perform.

Topa can not be counted on in the major league pen. He has exactly one healthy major league season entering his age 34 season. He missed virtually all of last season and had 2 injury setbacks in each of 2021 and 2022. Even if he is healthy his primary pitch (sinker) was at 92 last year as opposed to 95 in 2023. His velocity was also reported to be down last spring and in AAA. I argued last year that they could not count on him. They can’t count on him next year. He will have to overcome both injuries and decline. If they want to offer him arbitration planning for him to be the shuttle reliever from AAA that is fine.

Tender decision are about excess value. Does Castro provide clear value in excess of his projected contract? I am as confident Castro meets that bar this year as I was last year that Farmer did not.