The current iteration of the Twins' Front Office, led by Derek Falvey, has not been a frequent participant in the upper echelons of free agency, usually preferring to add impact players to the Major League roster from the farm system or via trade. They haven't sat out on this market entirely however, as signings such as Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, and especially Carlos Correa show that they are indeed to step in and participate for the right price and player. Despite the continued budget restrictions limiting the additions that the team can make this offseason, I thought it would be a fun exercise to dive into the top 50 players of this offseason's free agent class and explore who the Twins might pick up from this group if they once again decide to dip their toes into this market.
I'll be referring to MLBTR's recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, not just for the specific pool of players to investigate, but also for any projected contract values/lengths I discuss in my analysis. The players will be divided into 5 different groups based on how likely I think them signing with the Twins will be, with the higher-numbered groups being more likely.
Group 1: Never in a million years
3. Alex Bregman
5. Wily Adames
14. Tanner Scott
18. Jeff Hoffman
20. Gleyber Torres
21. Clay Holmes
22. Carlos Estevez
24. Joc Pederson
26. Hyeseong Kim
32. Michael Conforto
34. A.J. Minter
38. Kirby Yates
40. Andrew Kittredge
42. Tommy Kahnle
46. Tomoyuki Sugano
47. David Robertson
I find this group of 16 players so unlikely to sign with the Twins that I would be shocked if they were ever even linked to Minnesota. The reasons are pretty self-evident. This group is dominated by relievers, with 9 in total. With this front office’s tendency to avoid giving out multi-year or high AAV deals to relievers, this shouldn’t be surprising.
With the plethora of infield options the Twins have to choose from, I can’t see them deciding to spend big on a top-of-the-market option like Bregman, Adames, or Torres. Their abundance of left-handed-hitting outfielders makes a Pederson or Conforto signing similarly impossible. And in an offseason with so much uncertainty, I don’t think the Twins will take a flier on a middle infielder or 35-year-old pitcher from overseas.
Group 2: Very unlikely
1. Juan Soto
2. Corbin Burnes
4. Blake Snell
6. Max Fried
7. Pete Alonso
8. Jack Flaherty
9. Anthony Santander
10. Sean Manaea
11. Teoscar Hernandez
15. Luis Severino
28. Nick Pivetta
29. Nick Martinez
30. Danny Jansen
33. Max Scherzer
36. Kyle Higashioka
39. Michael Soroka
41. Kyle Gibson
45. Justin Verlander
48. Shinnosuke Ogasawara
This next group of players is even larger, consisting of 19 in total. The selection largely consists of players that will simply be too expensive for the Twins to realistically sign. The players from this group ranked in the single digits will likely demand an AAV that is simply too high for the Twins to pay given the current state of the payroll. Alonso is worth mentioning, because although he’d fill the Twin’s gaping hole at first base, he’s still too expensive. Multiple high-payroll teams like the Astros and Yankees are also in search of a first baseman this offseason, so it’s likely that one of them lands Alonso or the Mets simply re-sign him.
Although Manaea, Hernandez, Severino, Pivetta and Martinez will be cheaper, they were all issued a qualifying offer. Payroll additions will already be hard to come by this offseason, so any addition that would require the forfeiture of a draft pick is extremely unlikely to occur.
Outside of this “too costly” group, I don’t believe that the Twins have any interest in picking up an old, declining pitcher to clog up the rotation, meaning Scherzer, Verlander, and Gibson are likely off the board. Soroka is young, but showed little upside last year, plus the Twins have many better in-house options at SP. As for the catchers in Jansen and Higashioka, this could only happen if Vazquez gets traded, a scenario in which the Twins would likely need to retain at least some salary. Doing all that to barely upgrade their backup catcher without saving money is something I can’t see happening.
Group 3: Unlikely
12. Yusei Kikuchi
16. Jurickson Profar
17. Nathan Eovaldi
19. Tyler O’Neill
25. Andrew Heaney
27. Frankie Montas
37. Walker Buehler
43. Ha-Seong Kim
44. Shane Bieber
This next group of 8 consists of players I think the Twins could have serious interest in, but will simply get outbid for. The 6 starting pitchers are the headliners here, as they all would provide a valuable veteran presence as well as experience with pitching in the postseason. However, there are caveats. Montas, Buehler, and Bieber have all had recent major health concerns. Buehler and Bieber will likely be in high demand despite their recent injuries, as their upside is tremendous. Kikuchi and Eovaldi will also likely be in high demand, while Heaney and Montas were both below average pitchers in 2024.
The two remaining San Diego position players are an interesting case. Profar would be a great addition to the Twins to fill the position of right-handed-hitting outfielder, but his services will be in high demand after his career year. Kim would similarly be a great addition to bolster the depth on the left side of the infield as a great fielder, good baserunner, and average hitter. However, his upside could put him in similarly high demand, plus the injury which will keep him on the IL to start the 2025 season could deter the Twins from entertaining him as an option.
Group 4: Plausible
13. Christian Walker
23. Matthew Boyd
31. Jose Quintana
With just 6 of the top 50 players left to cover, this penultimate group consists of quality players that would fill a position of need for the Twins, but might be just barely too expensive and/or require significant payroll subtractions to accommodate on the active roster.
If the Twins sign Christian Walker, it would be one of the best signings of the entire offseason. With Alex Kirilloff’s retirement, the Twins now have a gaping hole at first base, with their only in-house option with any significant major-league experience at the position being Jose Miranda, who the Twins would likely rather use as a bench player for now. Walker would provide Gold Glove caliber defense at first, a trait the team clearly prioritized when signing the now departed Carlos Santana a year ago. Walker would also provide a consistently elite right-handed power bat, posting at least 25 home runs, an .800 OPS, and a 120 OPS+ each of the last three seasons. Health is also on his side, as he’s played at least 130 games every season over that same span. Age is the only knock on Walker as a player, as 2025 will be his age-34 season, but this clearly wasn’t a concern for the Twins when they signed the aforementioned 38-year-old Santana last offseason. The only obstacles to the Twins signing him will be cost, as he’ll command an AAV around $20 million, and demand, as he’s the second-best first baseman available.
Boyd and Quintana profile similarly, both being veteran lefties that provide a good floor, as they have each pitched to an ERA+ north of 100 for 5 of their past 7 seasons. The prospect of a left-handed starter could be enticing to the Twins, who haven’t had a lefty starter pitch over a full 162-game season since Martin Perez in 2019. They’re also both likely to sign a one or two-year deal, so the acquisition would be low-risk. However, this FO has been very hesitant to pay over $10 million AAV for any free agent starting pitchers, instead opting to acquire more expensive options via the trade market. MLBTR projects both Boyd and Quintana to land contracts with AAVs of $12.5 million and $10 million respectively, which could deter the Twins.
Group 5: Decent Chance
35. Paul Goldschmidt
49. Harrison Bader
50. Spencer Turnbull
I see these final three players as being easy for the Twins to sign if they are interested due to a combination of them being projected for short, cheap contracts, relatively low demand for their services, and great positional fit on the team.
Of these three, Goldschmidt would fill the most immediate team need at first base. The upside is obvious, as he’s a future Hall of Famer with an MVP on his resume, but he took a noticeable step back last year, posting an OPS+ of 98. This was the first time in Goldschmidt’s 14-year career that he hit to an OPS+ of under 120 during a full season. While this could simply be a fluke, Goldschmidt is 37, so further decline is very possible. Despite this, Goldy still grades out as an average defender at first base and is only projected for a one year, $15 million deal, so the Twins could easily choose to buy low and hope his bat comes back around for one last season. However, even $15 million could prove too costly for the FO.
If signed, Bader would fill the Manuel Margot role of right-handed backup outfielder that can play center if needed. Their bats are similarly below average, with Bader posting an 86 OPS+ in 2024 to Margot’s 76. Margot exhibited a typical platoon split, hitting to an OPS of just .540 versus righties and a decent .713 versus lefties, while Bader didn’t, posting an OPS in the .600s against both. Despite his similar woes at the plate, Bader would be a huge upgrade in the field over Margot, as he posted a +10 OAA in 2024 to Margot’s -5. As he’s projected only one year and $8 million in free agency, Bader is a very reasonable option for the Twins as a potential safety net for Byron Buxton.
Turnbull is a truly interesting case. He bounced around between the Phillies’ rotation, bullpen, and IL, making 7 starts and 17 total appearances. His history of injury and inconsistencies is a big concern, as he missed all of the 2022 season and has only made 12 or more starts once in his big-league career. The good news is that these concerns keep him cheap, as he’s projected to garner a one year, $7 million contract this offseason. For this price, the potential bang for your buck is immense. Turnbull pitched to a 2.65 ERA in just over 50 innings last year. His underlying stats show that while the elite run prevention should regress, his big step forward is for real. One MLBTR writer predicts the Twins will sign Turnbull, a move I wholeheartedly endorse if the FO can move off of Paddack somehow
Wish C4 could've been a nominee, guess Seager only got the nod over him because of all that missed time in the second half.