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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Should any trade for Cease be thought of as a trade for Cease and a comp pick?
  2. jorgenswest
    Topa’s velocity on his primary pitch (sinker) was 92 at the end of the season and reported in the 90-92 range in his rehab. His velocity was 95 in Seattle the previous season. Injuries cause decline and age causes decline. I am hopeful but not optimistic on Topa. If his velocity on the sinker is 95 this spring I will be optimistic. Sands went the opposite direction with velocity adding 2 mph to his fastball. I think that is real so I am optimistic. Relievers can be one year mirages but often there is a clue in their BABiP or their ERA estimators are not in line with ERA. In Sands case his BABIP from last year is sustainable and his ERA estimators were in line with his actual ERA.
  3. jorgenswest
    What would a normal season look like from Topa? Is it the 2023 season or any of his others? 2023 appears to be an outlier to me. I will be watching his velocity this spring. It was down last spring before the injury. If his sinker and cutter are at his 2023 levels I will be encouraged. If not, I hope they use an option and see if he can work his way back.
  4. jorgenswest
    I assume they aren’t looking at baseball reference or Fangraphs to make decisions. They would have so much more as well as the skilled eyes of their trained staff. I don’t have the data or the skilled eyes so I stand by…
  5. jorgenswest
    Why trust any of the three? Choosing any as better than the other is folly all need more sample. In multiple years OOPS and FIP become relevant before ERA for major leaguer relievers. In a full career I would trust ERA. In the context on Henriquez I trust strikeouts and walks as I stated. I would add that I trust velocity but it isn’t as easy to find.
  6. jorgenswest
    With relievers it is really difficult to use any of the plate appearance result based stats other than strikeout/walk rates and maybe ground ball rate. The stabilization point of the components of OOPS at the major league level is over 600 batters faced. The most for Henriquez in a season line is 412 and that was when he was primarily a starter. If you want to look at platoon splits the sample becomes even smaller. There is just too much out of a pitcher’s control once a ball is put in play. We could look at multiyear data to get a larger sample but that doesn’t work so well for a minor leaguer who is playing at different levels and hopefully improving their skill level from year to year. I would probably go with the younger Henriquez to start the season over Topa or Tonkin but I can’t back it up with any data.
  7. jorgenswest
    It is a make or break spring for Henriquez. Is it best to use FIP for a reliever? Doesn’t it rely on home run rate which stabilizes at something over 1000 batters faced? A reliever isn’t going to come near that sample. I do remember reading something about mistake rate and location rate and a claim that they stabilize pretty quickly. If mistakes are leading to more home runs there might be an answer in that data. I don’t know how to find that data but I imagine the Twins have it. I do recall that Ober was among the MLB pitchers with a low mistake rate in 2023. I agree he needs to be better. I think he improved enough to remain on the 40 this winter. Now he needs to step it up to win and maintain a job with the Twins.
  8. jorgenswest
    Five catchers on the 40 doesn’t seem sustainable so at least one will be moved or DFA’d. How well did the Twins utilize three catchers in 2019 and 2021 when Astudillo was on the roster? I can see Gasper in that role if he can be an above average major league hitter and effective pinch hitter. He needs to be a better hitter than Astudillo. I can’t see the value in having any other combination of three catchers from the remaining four. How would it help?
  9. jorgenswest
    I would add that he was a minor league free agent after 2022 also. His 2024 BABIP was .148. His swinging strike rate of 9.3% would have been the lowest amount the Twins bullpen last year other a few pitchers that pitched very little.. Overt was 9.9% and Richards was 9.4%. That poor rate doesn’t fit with the claim of being among the best left handed relievers in the NL. Relievers are put in too many situations where it is really helpful to get a swinging strike. A .148 BABIP was extremely helpful last year but not sustainable to this year.
  10. jorgenswest
    It seems like it should be added that the Twins had 42 starts (25.9%) on 4 days rest last year without implementing a 6 man rotation. I also noticed that they did much better on 4 days rest than 5 or 6.
  11. jorgenswest
    Ranked 24th by MLB.com. Johan de los Santos ranked 23rd got 2.25 million. The guys following were between 1.1 and 1.4 million. Are you complaining that the Twins might have got a discount by signing one of their scouts kids?
  12. jorgenswest
    Thanks. A few notes on draft position leaders. Graig Nettles is the career WAR leader at #74 with 67.9. He edged David Cone. Dave Goltz is the leader at #97 with 23.1 WAR. Randy Jones is second with 17.7 Rick Dempsey is the leader at #297 with 25.1 WAR. No one else is close. Bert Blyleven is the career leader at #55 at 94.5. Rob Wilfong has the most WAR at #316 with 7.5 Lyman Bostock leads at #596 with 13.1 Butch Wynegar had the most WAR among players drafted in the second round in 1974 but his 26.5 is third among #38 picks.
  13. jorgenswest
    I appreciate this series. A few notes. Kirby Puckett was drafted in the 1982 January draft - regular phase. Frank Viola’s 47 WAR is the most from any player drafted 37th. Adam Jones is second at 32.6. Kent Hrbek holds the same honor at number 432 at 38.6 as long as I add caveat drafted and signed at 432. In that era many players were drafted in later rounds with no expectation they would be signed. In second is JP France with 1.0 WAR. Jim Eisenreich is the career WAR leader at position 401 with 13.2
  14. jorgenswest
    Widely reported or widely repeated? Was first hand news of the expectation to trim payroll sourced several times by multiple reporters?
  15. jorgenswest
    It does. That is the challenge of an international signing of a catcher at 16. By the time they are 21 they need to be on the 40 or open to rule 5. By the time they are 24 they are out of options. Cartaya has one option left. The Dodgers already have three other catchers on the 40 and one that is ahead of him in Rushing. A team contending for a pennant is going to need that 40 man spot for someone who will contribute to the 2025 team.
  16. jorgenswest
    If I am a prospective bidder I would make clear to the Pohlad’s that I don't want them to make deals sacrificing the 2025 season in order to reduce the budget. Trading Jeffers for a reliever or prospects will weaken the 2025 team.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins have one year to fix his bat and his throwing before he is out of options. The upside is there. To have any chance at that upside they have to work with him at AAA for the bulk of the season and find other payers to remove from the 40 when they have a need. The cost of the trade is not only Jose Vazquez but it is also a 40 man roster spot. At some point the Twins will have a need to remove a fringe player from the 40. If that player doesn’t pass through waivers it will be part of the cost of this deal. I would have done this deal. Catchers are a premium. He has more upside the other catchers in the organization.
  18. jorgenswest
    I was aware and should have acknowledged in post. I am assuming the Cartaya would not be the last add. At some point they are going to need to remove from this 39. They should offer the player that they view as the next to be removed.
  19. jorgenswest
    Who is the last man on the 40? Helman, Gasper, Keirsey, Headrick? I am not sure but that is who I would offer. The Dodgers can DFA that player and try to get them through to the minors. Otherwise I would wait to see if I get him on waivers. His ideal place is to a team that is not a true contender. That team can probably afford to give him a year in the minors and give up the flexibility of that 40 man spot. Maybe that does describe the 2025 Twins. As for defense Fangraphs has him at a 40 now with 55 potential so he is not ready. He allowed 55 steals in 62 attempts in AAA across 35 games.
  20. jorgenswest
    Other than the Guardians it was hard for me to find a team that tried to develop the left on left. They had 687 left on left plate appearances. There were a few teams ahead of the. And the Cardinals might fit. The others were more superstar driven lefties. I am sure you have reported that the Twins were 30th on this list with 194. The Guardians were second on the list last year and the Twins were 20th and reasonably close to average. They made a real effort last year to leverage that platoon but didn’t appear to get the advantage part of it.
  21. jorgenswest
    I wondered how many left handed batters were being developed. I decided to sort left handed batters by plate appearances against lefties and then try to come up with a qualifying line. My qualifying line was 502 multiplied by the ratio of left handed batters faced (~26.9%) ending up with 135 PAs. When looking at the list there is a gap from 129 to 141 so 135 fit that way also. There is also a noticeable drop in the ratio of players with a league average wRC+ in the next group of 35 players. Thirty five left handed batters qualified for the lefty on lefty title. 17 had an above average wRC+ and 17 a below average wRC+. The title winner was Jordan Alvarez. I am pretty confident the Twins would have started Alvarez against lefties. It would be the same for several others like Ohtani, Soto, Harper and Henderson. I then wondered about developing. The Guardians had three of the top 23 by PAs in Kwan, Gimenez and Naylor. Kwan was well above average, Gimenez below and Naylor just above average though probably not for his position. The Twins probably would have been batting Farmer against lefties instead of Gimenez. They probably would have limited Naylor’s at bats some also. I don’t know the Guardians motivation for playing the three so much against lefties. It may be to develop that skill. It may be to make it more difficult for teams to utilize the pen against them. Their typical line up against a lefty had Kwan batting first, Naylor batting 4th and Gimenez batting in the 6 or 7. I think splitting them up also can get that left handed pitcher off rhythm.
  22. jorgenswest
    I have to believe he has been tried at 1B in practice in college and the minors. It would be very surprising for a player who plays only corner outfield to have the skill to play 1B and never play there in college or the minors. In his first full season in the minors the Twins used 6 different players at 1B at his A ball stop and 9 in AA. They never used Larnach at 1B.
  23. jorgenswest
    It looks like there were 4 games in the last 10 against lefties with no left handed batters. They scored 8 runs in those games. Is it possible that a few left handed batters will get the left handed starter off rhythm? Maybe it doesn’t show up in the stats for the left handed batter. Maybe that disruption of rhythm shows up for the batter or two following the left handed batter. It didn’t work. It needs to be addressed. I hope it isn’t addressed with budget friendly short side platoon bats.
  24. jorgenswest
    I can tell you that August 20 and following they faced 10 left handed starters. Margot was the lead off hitter in 7 of them. In four games no left handed hitters were in the starting line up. In only one game were two left handed hitters in the starting line up. They went 0-10. If they go 5-5 they end up with 87 wins. Detroit and Kansas City made the playoffs with 86. 2024 line ups
  25. jorgenswest
    Platooning loses its effectiveness when starters are taken out mid game. It will remain ineffective short of baseball allowing re-entry. Take a look at Ryan Jeffers career line. The Twins haven’t platooned at catcher but there is a little bias towards left handed starter since he has DH’d against a lefty on occasion. Since he is a catcher he almost always plays a full game and rarely replaced by a pinch hitter. His numbers tell a story. It probably doesn’t surprise you that his OPS against left handed pitching (.832) is much better than his OPS against right handed pitching (.695). Wouldn’t it make sense to get a left handed catcher to platoon with him? They probably should limit Jeffers’ starts against a right handed pitcher. Shouldn’t they? Here is the catch. His career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher of .767 is almost 100 points better than his OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher of .677. What is going on here? Starters aren’t pitching deep into games. In games started by a right handed pitcher he is often batting in the bottom half of the lineup between two left handed batters. Relievers need to face a minimum of three batters so he probably sees a left handed pitcher or two in the second half of the game. Left handed relievers are not as strong as left handed starters and they almost certainly have more trouble against right handed batters. Jeffers feasts in those situations. The answer to roster construction is simply roster the better hitters. Strategic lineup construction is critical. Group players that have the more extreme splits from opposite sides. Want to bring in a lefty to face Wallner? That’s fine but he is also going to have to deal with Jeffers in the on deck circle. If Wallner, Larnach and Rodriguez are the best three bats for the corner outfield then they should roster those three. Alternate which one rest against a lefty and use all three in the outfield when Buxton needs a day off against a right handed starter. Don’t look for a Margot.
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