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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Dobnak gives them two things that are important for a long reliever. He throws strikes and hence can give them multiple innings. He can be swapped out for another pitcher with little risk of losing him. It would be better if he had upside to climb the bullpen ladder as Jax and Sands did from that role. Castellano didn’t offer either of those elements. He didn’t show he could throw strikes and he couldn’t be shuttled to AAA. I am hoping Dobnak defies the odds and is so effective he forces the Twins to look elsewhere when they need to make their next bullpen move.
  2. jorgenswest
    In 2004 three Rice pitchers were drafted among the top 8 players. All three needed surgery by 2006. Humber and Townsend had Tommy John. Niemann had shoulder surgery. The New York Times wrote a story about the three in 2006 and they backed Rice and their coach. Even so it does seem reasonable that their workload led to their injuries. Those surgeries were in 2006. It gained attention because they were 3 of the top 8 picks in the 2004 draft. Duffey pitched for Rice 7 years after the 2004 trio. He threw 52 and 61 innings in his two years prior to being drafted. Canterino threw 96 and 94 innings in his two years at Rice. He did not lead his conference in innings pitched either year and threw what was typical for a college’s top starter in that conference. Canterino pitched for Rice thirteen years after Humber, Townsend and Niemann. I don’t know if the workloads on the three contributed to their injuries. They claimed it didn’t at the time of their injuries. I don’t think a claim of higher injury risk as a result of pitching for Rice 7 or 13 years after the fact has any support. If you are going to make that claim it should come with support. I did look for pitchers prior to the 2004 group. 1997 number 1 pick Matt Anderson went to Rice. He did suffer a major injury to his throwing arm in 2002. He suffered a rare teres major muscle tear (arm pit). His injury occurred on a day where he participated in a Tiger sponsored fan octopus throw where he tried to win Detroit Red Wing playoff tickets. I don’t think there is any reason to recommend avoiding Rice University 21 years after the injured trio. I would recommend that pitchers avoid throwing an octopus as part of their pregame warm up.
  3. jorgenswest
    I object to extremity of your last question but I do think it is a matter of priorities and they could have their priorities in the right place. I am not sure anyone is developing Julien or Steer or Martin or Encarnacion-Strand into anything more than a passable defender. How often do college second and third basemen have the tools to be an average or plus defender in the majors? I also think they showed how much they prioritize defense when they traded Miller to the Dodgers. I would assume those priorities also bleed into where they spend their time working with the players also.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would start him once or twice a series against right handed pitching. Play him in LF and DH Larnach or give Buxton a day of rest. With Larnach at DH put Castro is on the bench or at 3B with France or Miranda getting a day off against a right handed pitcher. All it takes is Castro, France and Miranda getting a day off once a week against right handed pitching and he has three starts. I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. We will find out soon enough.
  5. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is a matter is developing. I think it is a matter of priorities. They give a lot more weight to the hit tool. When you draft a college second baseman or corner player the chance of that player being an average defender somewhere in the major leagues is pretty small. The best they might hope is that college 2B/3B like Julien can progress to passable.
  6. jorgenswest
    It was also his ball with his momentum going towards first. Gasper shouldn’t have been there.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do you think his defense is ready? Should they wait? It isn’t just about recovering from injury. He hasn’t played a lot of second base and almost all second basemen started as shortstops in the minors.
  8. jorgenswest
    Ryan Yarbrough opted out of his deal. Is there a better option on the roster for the last spot? He throws strikes. He is left handed. He can go multiple innings throwing 98.2 last year. I guess the contract needs to be one the Twins are willing to cut loose. They need to be willing to let him go if the rest of the bullpen is effective if and when Stewart is ready.
  9. jorgenswest
    Should they worry about the risk of injury? In the minors they can control his workload to try to build up his arm.
  10. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I was going by roster resource that lists him injured. It doesn’t list Stewart as injured so I suppose those two spots flip and they still need another pitcher.
  11. jorgenswest
    I thought he was starting on the IL. If healthy he could be that pitcher on options that can take the last spot.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am not confident that Keaschall will be ready defensively in 2025. Virtually all major league second basemen started as shortstops. Keaschall was moved off of shortstop in college. It was a transfer to Arizona State but the shortstop on that team also hasn’t been good enough to stick at shortstop in college. Keaschall has only started 42 games at 2B in the minors. If he is going to be a major league 2B he needs to lot of games in AAA at that spot this year.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would give that last spot in the bullpen to either a player on options or a player I am OK with losing to DFA. If they go the options route it has to be Funderburk. Otherwise they need to add a player to the 40 that they are willing to lose. That could be Blewett but it has been reported that he was told he would start in AAA. That probably leaves Misiewicz. They are running out of position players on the 40 also. If Gasper is on the IL I think Keirsey, Julien and Martin all make the team. How long will it be before it is no longer feasible to carry 4 catchers on the 40 man roster?
  14. jorgenswest
    Gasper injured today.
  15. jorgenswest
    I really disagree with @Cody Christie’s assertion that the failure to try Hendriks as a reliever was the mistake. The Twins released him after the 2013 season. After that he went from the Cubs to the Orioles to the Blue Jays to the Royals back to the Blue Jays and then to the A’s. He pitched in relief 201 times in that span and earned one save. His ERA’s in his first three seasons with the A’s were a mediocre 3.76, 4.22 and 4.13 as a middle inning reliever throwing a fastball in the 94s. Something happened at age 30 in 2019 and his velocity the next few seasons was 97 and the ERAs were under 2. The Twins didn’t make a mistake of not giving a chance to a reliever throwing in the 94s. If there was a mistake it was a failure to help him find that 97 mph fastball. All of the other coaching staffs he encountered on his path from 2013 to 2018 had the same failure. The Twins can’t make that same mistake with Varland. They have already helped him get to a velocity in the upper 90s.
  16. jorgenswest
    Does that best roster have a bench of Bader, Vazquez, Martin and Lee? My premise of choosing two was that Lee would be healthy and make the opening day roster. It could be a bad premise and maybe you send a healthy Lee to AAA for Gasper. Again I really want to know what everyone thinks is the best and not what they think the Twins will do.
  17. jorgenswest
    I need to reframe my question. I don’t care about guessing what the Twins will do or projections. We will find out the roster soon enough. I think Keirsey and Gasper help the roster the most to start the season. @Brock Beauchamp has Julien and Gasper. Any others interested in giving thoughts on the best for those two bench spots?
  18. jorgenswest
    I think these four are fighting for the last two spots and I am glad to have all four. Which pairing of these two helps the roster the most? Assuming Lee is healthy I am going to go with Gasper and Keirsey. I dismiss the notion that Keirsey doesn’t fit becuase he bats left handed. I would start him against right handed pitching 3-4 times a week with Larnach at DH or Buxton getting a day off. His defense and speed will be an asset to the bench. I am not confident that he can hit well enough to be more than a 5th outfielder that goes between AAA and the major leagues while on options. I would give him a chance to prove me wrong. I like Gasper’s bat off the bench. I hope he has enough trust at catcher that they would pinch hit for Vazquez on occasion but otherwise he duplicates positionally what they can get from Julien. I don’t know if he would start more than once or twice a week initially but I think there will be several games where he can help off the bench. Keirsey and Gasper are also older than Martin and Julien. Martin and Julien have plenty to work on in AAA. I think Gasper and Julien have nearly maxed out their growth in AAA. I would give them the first opportunity to claim a spot and never give it up. Note: If Brooks Lee can’t start opening day due to a back injury I would put him on the IL and add Julien.
  19. jorgenswest
    Thanks. He was really effective that year.
  20. jorgenswest
    I have. You are the only one to have offered a comp. He wasn’t effective and kept all year. Thank you.
  21. jorgenswest
    Was there a recent pitcher on a competitive team that filled a low leverage/long relief role while staying on the major league roster all year? I realize that this can break down into a painful back and forth about low leverage and long relief. I will do my best not to add to that pain by accepting your comp, I am truly interested in a comp of what we envision for Castellano. Point me to a pitcher with the following characteristics. 25 or younger no options remained on roster all year Let’s do this in reverse. Let’s find a pitcher that fits those characteristics. I am curious about his role and how effective he needed to be to remain on the roster all year.
  22. jorgenswest
    You will have to get by without great play from centerfield for a while. The Twins will need to get by at 3B. It is also an opportunity for someone to step up and claim and everyday role when Lewis returns. I like the possibilities in Miranda, Lee, Castro, Gasper and Julien with Keaschall and Eeles close. Someone can step up and claim the bulk of this playing time. It is so much better than having signed a veteran back up infielder who doesn’t hit well but is more trusted and given the playing time.
  23. jorgenswest
    Has he done that repeatedly this spring? For his first several games of spring he took very few called strikes and the ones he took made sense (being ahead in the count and looking for a certain pitch), I didn’t keep it up and he did take a called strike 2 today in his second at bat before putting the ball in play on the next pitch, Continuing to work on that approach in AAA might be the best route for him but he appears to have a more aggressive approach on pitches in the strike zone. edit: Next at bat after I wrote this he took three called strikes.
  24. jorgenswest
    In response to those that would sell low on Lewis… I would choose the injury prone more talented player over the less talented player that has a history of good health. It is hard to find a match for Buxton’s contract of 6 years at a little over 15 million a year (it was a 7 year deal but the first was still an arb year so it was lower.) Trevor Story received 6/140 that winter which isn’t an AAV match but closest for that term length. Chris Taylor received 4/60 which is closest positionally and by AAV. I rather have Buxton and gamble that he will be healthy should we reach the playoffs than Taylor. I know they lost that gamble in 2023 but that is still my bet. I would make a similar bet on Lewis.
  25. jorgenswest
    Thanks Seth. what do you know about Hall?
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