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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Thanks Mike. Do the Phillies have a summer update? Is it also reasonable to say a number 14 in the Twins organization would be similar to a number 6 in the Phillies organization?
  2. jorgenswest
    For comparison here is Fangraphs take as well as their projected future value. Aiden Miller(55) - above average regular Justin Crawford(40+) - bench player/platoon player(+) Eduardo Tait(45) - Low end regular/platoon Mick Abel(40) - Backend starter approximate FIP of 5.00 Moises Chace(50) - Number 4 starter approximate FIP of 4.00 i would recommend ignoring numeric team ranks and looking to future value. A number 4 on one team can be very different from a number 4 on another. I would not be interested in moving Duran or Jax and their remaining control for players that have a future value of platoon/low end or back end starter.
  3. jorgenswest
    For those interested in reliving the Molitor firing. Here is some original source material from October 2018 Aaron Gleeman speculated about it on his podcast. He was not a Twins reporter at the time working for Baseball Prospectus. He gives valuable insight in his Athletic role which is most often in the role of columnist not reporter. Dan Hayes does most of the reporting. The StarTribune if you are a subscriber Quotes from Falvey at that time
  4. jorgenswest
    Buxton, Correa and Bader are very good but hard contact is going to win out. I think they are better off with the swing and miss and the higher pitch counts that come with strike outs. Lopez and Ryan might be able to trade a few strikeouts for contact while dialing it up with runners in scoring position in order to stay in the game longer. I think we see that from Lopez. Skubal can do it. If your dialed up form is league average or worse I think it is all gas/no brakes until handing it off to the pen.
  5. jorgenswest
    Hitters today might be too good. It is hard to avoid barrels and get balls in play for outs. Ober is among the AL leaders in fewest pitches per plate appearance. His strike out rate is way down from last year. He can give them length but all of that contact is susceptible to a big inning. In two recent starts he pitched 7 innings but gave up 5 and 7 runs. Pitchers with great stuff like Skubel can ease back on strike outs but I don’t know if an average starter can stay average while trading strike outs for contact anymore.
  6. jorgenswest
    You likely know this is a pen often repeated myth but for others Ryan has faced the top of the line up for a third time in every start this year. He has no starts of 18 or fewer batters. He faced the top of the lineup a third time in every 2024 start other than the where he was pulled after 7 batters due to injury. Ober and Lopez have seen the top of the line up virtually every start short of rain or injury. Woods Richardson in 8 of 11 starts. Paddack every start this year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Couldn’t agree more. Thanks for adding that.
  8. jorgenswest
    Through July 23, Wallner has a wRC+ of 136 for his career. It was 140 earlier this year. For his career he has a 156 wRC+ against right handed pitching and 53 against left handed pitching. This year left handed pitchers make up 22% of his at bats. Prior to this year it was 18% so his overall number of 136 has some skew in it. Elite left handed batters that are targeted with left handed relievers and never come out of the game like Ohtani and Devers see left handed pitchers in 35% or more of their plate appearances.
  9. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t make sense to me. I would have moved on after the season or in season if I was convinced the best manager is available now. Oh well. Baseball this evening. I will be listening/watching. Go Twins.
  10. jorgenswest
    He absolutely should get a look. All corner outfielder should get a look. There are plenty of opportunities to look outside of games and hopefully a lot of reps in practice before playing a position in a game. He throws right handed so he should have had a look at 3B also. I am pretty certain the Mariners and Twins have taken a look. First base takes skill and talent. Many corner outfielders are there because they don’t have the feet and hands to play first base. Some guys have the feet and hands but poor arm or range so they fit at first but not corner outfield. Cedar Rapids has used nine players at first base this year. Wichita has used 8 players. They are giving many players time at 1B. I really doubt they overlooked Gonzalez.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t think are advocating for players like McCusker to come up and take away at bats from Wallner or Larnach against left handed pitching and some against right handed pitching. It sounds like you have lost trust in the organizational staff and their evaluation of minor leaguers. Are you advocating for a complete overhaul of the organization?
  12. jorgenswest
    Absolutely True. We need them to be right. I don’t think it is possible for an organization to be successful if they commit to giving a consistent and long enough stretch in the majors to every prospect that showed flashes of promise. They absolutely need to rely on the skill of their minor league coordinators and staff in evaluating how each player is ready to help a major league club. The one dimensional players are probably the hardest to give a real shot before options time them out. With Rooker and McCusker they only help with the bat and it is quite likely they are going to really struggle with the same side pitcher. If they don’t help any other way it is really hard to play them. These two have the additional disadvantage of being in the short side of the platoon. It is critical that Falvey builds a highly skilled minor league staff and equally critical that the major league staff trusts their evaluation. I am not sure of their was a failure with Rooker or if options were running out on the Twins before his bat was ready to contribute. Maybe it was a failure on the staff to recognize his bat was ready.
  13. jorgenswest
    When true prospects with a future value of everyday player come up Baldelli plays them every day. He played Brooks Lee played everyday when he was brought up. Keaschall played every day. When Walker Jenkins arrives he will play regularly. The same will probably be true for Emmanuel Rodriguez. Culpepper will get playing time. Prospects with a future value of platoon or bench player need to show they can thrive in their role. Baldelli should not be playing every player brought up from the minors regularly. The Twins believe in McCusker. They showed it by putting him on the 40 and keeping him there once sent down. It was good for McCusker to come up and see major league pitching. He hopefully realizes that he has work to do and needs to make adjustments. He needs to do the work. If he is making adjustments the results may get worse before they get better but that is part of the work.
  14. jorgenswest
    Very true. Thanks.
  15. jorgenswest
    Are rankings reflective of a player’s skill level and potential upside? It is really hard to believe that a player’s skill level and upside is changing that much from one month to the next. If it isn’t changing then these changes in ranking must be due to our complete inability to rank players. If we are so inept in our ability to rank players against each other that each month results in big risers and fallers, then let’s stop ranking them against each other. It really is meaningless anyway when significant shifts are happening monthly. I read Fangraphs by the tiers and not numbers.They have one Twin at 55 (above average regular), three Twins at 50(average everyday player, ten Twins at 45 (low end regular/platoon player) and eighteen Twins at 40 (bench player). To me the context of those tiers is helpful as we get to the trade deadline. Trading a number 6 prospect seems like a lot until you get the context that the future value of this player is low end regular/platoon. Why not group them in tiers instead trying to distinguish among a large group of players projected to have a future value of a bench player? With number rankings, a change from 25 and off the list to 15 seems like a big deal but in reality their future value of bench player really hasn’t changed at all. Going the other way knocks them off the list. Instead of seeing McCusker on the minor league report I will see Eeles. Is the future of one that different than the other? I also believe it will help readers focus on a player’s future value. In considering the value of a trade knowing that we traded or received the 5th and 15th prospect from a team isn’t very helpful. Is that number 5 player that we are trading away expected to be an everyday regular or platoon player? Is that 15th player expected to be a platoon player, bench player or a player that is expected to be a player that moves up and down with AAA?
  16. jorgenswest
    As for Rocco, I will join the prosecution if they don’t make the playoffs. They need a manager that can take a mediocre roster and elevate the team to playoff status. Is that manager available midseason? My concern is they will hire a manager now and retain him for next season instead of waiting until the off season when the pool of candidates is much larger. I will join the prosecution today if somebody can convince me there is that must hire manager out there right now or convince me that the interim will truly be interim.
  17. jorgenswest
    They may need someone who can give them innings today or tomorrow. Wentz and Topa are likely not available today. Wentz not likely tomorrow, Adams started on Wednesday. He isn’t available today. Funderburk was optioned on June 6. I think he can be brought back today. He last pitched Tuesday. DFA Wentz? Option Topa?
  18. jorgenswest
    I get that. I am also aware that Seattle has one lefty in the pen. If that lefty comes in mid game against Wallner or Larnach would they pinch hit McCusker at that point knowing he will see a right handed pitcher later in the game? Does that also mean he gets at most two at bats against that one lefty starter in the next 7 days and get pulled when a reliever enters? Most hitters need at bats to stay sharp. If the Twins can see a path where McCusker can help by getting consistent enough at bats they should bring him up. It is hard for me to see that consistent path short of an injury.
  19. jorgenswest
    Good call on Knoblauch. He only had one full season on the minors and stole 23 that year. In looking him up I found JT Bruett who stole 62 bases on his Kenosha team and ran into Jarvis Brown again on his Visalia and Orlando teams. As for translating it will be difficult because if you don’t hit in the majors you don’t get the chance to steal bases. Pat Kelly hit well enough. His major league stolen base rate is lower than his minor league rate but he played to age 36. I think all those players would have stolena lot of bases in the majors if they could have hit the ball.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder why now. In the next 7 games the Twins look to face one left handed starter. Should he sit the other games. The Mariners have one lefty in the bullpen so they will see almost all right handed pitchers in that 4 game series. I am for calling him up if he will is worthwhile starting against right handed pitching at least some of the time. Who does he replace in the line up against right handed pitching that improves the team? If calling him just to start that one game in the next 7 against a lefty I think they are better off with Keirsey as the last man on the bench. I don’t think it is reasonable to expect his bat to stay sharp if he is rarely playing.
  21. jorgenswest
    I saw Alex Marte play for the Visalia Oaks in the 80s. He stole 82 bases for them in 1984. That team stole a lot of bases. I looked up Jarvis Brown. He was a pinch runner on the 1991 World Series team. Prior to that he had a season where he stole 72 bases in Kenosha, I also recall and looked up Herman Hill. He was a pinch runner/defensive substitution on the 1969/1970 Twins. In 1967 he stole 58 bases for Orlando and another 6 in a Florida Instructional League. The last player I looked up is Pat Kelly. He stole 250 bases in his major league career but had a few cups of coffee with the Twins before the Royals took him in the expansion draft. In 1966 he stole 52 bases for AA Charlotte and another 15 up in the instructional league. This is not an exhaustive list. In looking up Visalia for Alex Marte I saw Jim Weaver stole 60 bases on the 1982 team. The Twins lost Weaver to the Tigers in the rule 5 draft. He had a handful of at bats in the majors. Going by my recall it is 82 bases from Alex Marte. For some reason my recall is better for teams 40-50 years ago than the last 25 in the minors. Someone might come up with someone more recent that surpassed 82.
  22. jorgenswest
    Triple slash numbers can be very deceiving in a single season sample. I would not call last season a break out. The only change compared to this season his batted balls found holes. His xBA, xSLG and xwOBA are very close to the same. In fact his expected number are better in 2025 than 2024. He has been the same hitter this year as last but his BABIP fell from .348 to .200. I don’t think it is buying low. It is the same hitter. No one should have believed last year’s numbers were sustainable. The same is true for this year. His ability is somewhere in between, His preseason projection of a wRC+ in the 80s seems reasonable. He is 29. Is a wRC+ in the 80s matched with his defense worth investing in? Maybe. A wRC+ in the 80s is better than Vazquez. I just don’t think it is good enough. They absolutely shouldn’t take him thinking they can get the 2024 numbers out of him. That was a mirage.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins also need to be looking for a catcher. If they are a seller Seattle has Harry Ford blocked by Cal Raleigh. He would be costly.
  24. jorgenswest
    This might be Gasper’s shot at more consistent playing time. Is he ready? He has 120 minor league starts at catcher including 12 this year. He has allowed 19 of 20 stolen bases in those 12 starts. He has one passed ball and one throwing error. I have watched on mlb.tv and it seems like he could have done better on a few of the wild pitches I have seen. He doesn’t look out of place though. He might be passable in the field if he makes up for it at the plate. I am not here to say he is a good catcher or even mediocre. He might be good enough though. The Twins signed Brian Harper to a minor league contract in 1988. The Angels and Pirates had given up on him as a catcher. He then moved on to the Cardinal, Tiger and A’s organizations. The Twins had a need at catcher and he got a chance in AAA. It wasn’t his catching that got him to the majors. He had an OPS over 1000 in the PCL after 46 games to start the year. He made it to the majors with his bat and his catching was passable enough in 1988 and improved towards average the more he played.
  25. jorgenswest
    He has caught in three of his last seven games in AAA. If the Twins see catcher as a possibility in the majors it may be worth the time in AAA getting him more games there.
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