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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I hope you are right. Range factor needs a pretty large sample of multiple seasons but his have been consistently mediocre. It honestly could be chance. Maybe balls aren’t hit as often to centerfield when he is playing as opposed to the other center fielders on the team. Would Cal Stevenson and Andrew Stevenson be fair comparisons? Both are center fielders that lead off and have similar skill profiles. He didn’t get a 20-80 update on Fangraphs last year and didn’t make the top 43 Twins prospects but he didn’t get mention in the midseason 2024 update I can’t find where he has been anything other than “other players of note” in the Twins system beyond his appearance at #38 prior to the 2019 season. My search did not find every update but did find the recent one from mid season 24. I am not cherry picking here and would love to see scouting reports that are more encouraging.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think they made the right move by signing a veteran. They chose Bader. Keirsey is on the 40 and will get an opportunity this year. He will need to produce better than his minor league wRC+ numbers and range factor numbers suggest. The few times I have seen him play on TV my unskilled eyes tell me he is a major leaguer.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t know if Paddack is healthy or the ceiling of the healthy Paddack. I do see that his velocity this spring seems to be in line with the velocity over his career including his healthy 2019 season. I wouldn’t lock him into the rotation but I would trust the evaluation of the staff if they choose to start with him in the rotation. Last year Varland was removed after 4 ineffective starts. A similar four starts from Paddack and they need to look for another option. This is their last year of control. He needs to perform.
  4. jorgenswest
    It really changes the meaning of what I wrote when you omit. “Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back.” Without it you make it sound like I know that he will not be effective. I haven’t seen him pitch. I don’t have the skill to use the data available to me to make a determination of readiness. We have just wasted a whole bunch of time if the argument is about whether he is ready because I have no business being part of that argument. I have no idea. For fear of wasting more time… The Twins will need to make multiple moves with the bullpen over the course of the season. Last April 13 the Twins sent optioned Alcala after 6 outings (3 of them 2 innings) while giving up 0 earned runs. It was at least the second time in the young season the Twins needed to make a bullpen move. I do not support a move where they option out an effective reliever while retaining a clearly less effective pitcher that can’t be optioned.
  5. jorgenswest
    My position copied from the start of the discussion Rigid. I suppose. “Can’t devote a spot” is definitely rigid. We apparently disagree but I always appreciate the debate.
  6. jorgenswest
    Low leverage specialists shouldn’t be a role on a team like a left handed specialist or a shortstop. I think it is very difficult for a player without options to be hidden from significant use in medium and high leverage games. I looked at the 6 division winners and looked for their reliever with the most low leverage batters faced. I wondered how many games they saw in medium or high leverage. I will report them separately since it is possible that they saw both leverages in the same game. Competing teams need flexibility in the bullpen. Teams need to be willing to lose that 8th pitcher by DFA (Tonkin, Avila, Scott, Ruiz, Brewers) or put him on the option shuttle (Grove). That brings me back to my statement that a low leverage relief role doesn’t exist. The last spot in the bullpen of a competing team needs the flexibility that Castellano can’t provide. If he is effective he will be the 6th or 7th man in the pen. If he is not effective the Twins must return him to the Phillies. They can’t use a bullpen spot to develop a pitcher that isn’t ready for the major leagues. He needs to be ready now.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins were a 63 win team on the way to a 69 win season. I don’t think they make the same roster decision if they felt they had a good shot at winning the division. I still don’t believe a competing team can devote a spot on the 26 to an ineffective reliever they can’t option. If Castellano can put up a lot of innings with an ERA of 3.81 or 4.25 I am fine with the Twins rostering him. I am curious why FIP is better here than xFIP. Do you always use FIP?
  8. jorgenswest
    If the plan is to exclusively use Castellano in low leverage they should return him now. There are no low leverage roles for a competing team. There really aren’t long reliever roles either unless that player has an option so that they can be sent to AAA after an outing that will make them unavailable the next 2-3 games. Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back. A competing team can’t devote a spot on the 26 to a player not ready to compete at the major league level.
  9. jorgenswest
    Encouraged by Gasper but not sure what that has to do with my comment about approach. I am still paying attention to his approach. Today there was one called strike in 4 plate appearances.
  10. jorgenswest
    He blew two saves last year. Both games were extra innings. He pitched 3.1 innings giving up 3 hits, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk and 0 earned runs. In one game a passed ball moved the ghost runner from second to third before they scored. In the other game the ghost runner scored. He earned a win in one of the games and a loss in the other. Across his 5 save opportunities, he pitched 9 innings and gave up 1 earned run with up 6 hits, 7 strikeouts and 3 walks. I don’t know if Tonkin is the best option for the back of the bullpen. I just felt a strong need to put a context to that 40% number in support of a man who works so hard to play and stay in the majors. I add this comment hoping it doesn’t derail the discussion. A reliever coming in the game in extra innings with a runner starting on second should not be saddled with a loss. Had it been earlier in the game and that runner on second was inherited with 0 outs the loss would go to the pitcher that put him on second.
  11. jorgenswest
    Camargo and Cartaya are on a different part of their age path but both were signed by the Dodgers as international free agents at 16. The path to useful catcher in the major leagues is often a long one and the rule 5/option clocks can run out on teams. Let’s hope the Twins can benefit from that clock running out on the Dodgers. Cartaya needs a long stretch if not a full season of AAA in development. Camargo is ready to help right now and is probably at least the median third catcher. The Twins are wise to devote a 40 man spot to Cartaya to see if he can approach that ceiling projected when he was a 20 year old succeeding in High A. His .354 OBP as a 22 year old catcher in AA gives me some hope. I am glad both are Twins.
  12. jorgenswest
    Didn’t the Twins right handed batters have a much better SLG and OPS than their left handed batters last year?
  13. jorgenswest
    I have been paying attention to Julien’s approach this spring. No called strikes today. He stayed in the zone.
  14. jorgenswest
    I really appreciated the work from @chpettit19 to give us the breakdown by batting order position. It is helpful. The line up also needs to be strategic. The batters immediately before and after Wallner matter. The Twins need to do a better job of winning the substitution chess match this year. I think leading off with Wallner against a right handed starter can put the other manager can put the manager in a thought spot. Do you bring in the lefty against him knowing that he has to face Correa, Lewis or Buxton in the at bats following? There is a flaw in that thinking though. The manager can bring that lefty in against the number 8 hitter. If France or Miranda or Jeffers are in that 8 spot that might make the manager think twice about bringing in a lefty early. The Twins will have two or three lefties in that line up including Larnach and Julien. Batting Wallner first with Larnach 5th or perhaps Larnach 4th and Julien 7th is going to make it challenging to place that left handed reliever. The Twins can continue that advantage by keeping the game in the middle innings. Last year the other manager too often put the Twins at a disadvantage with the line up moves. Batting Wallner first might turn that advantage around.
  15. jorgenswest
    That Larnach throws right makes me wonder more why he has never been on the infield. Kirilloff didn’t play first base until he got to AA but is a player that was primarily an outfielder they moved to first. Kepler played 76 games in the minors at 1B. That is what stands out to me for Larnach. He never played 1B in the minors or college. The fit for someone like Larnach at 1B could easily be projected from the time he was drafted. I can only go by how the Twins have used him to conclude he doesn’t have the tools to play that spot. What are the other options? Larnach is unwilling to play 1B. I rejected that possibility. He plays another more important position so well that they would never move him off that spot. his use at DH negates that possibility. The Twins staff is so inept that it didn’t occur to them that Larnach might be needed 1B. Maybe that is the case but I trust in the staff and reject that possibility. They have played so many players at 1B in the minors. I hope it is the last case and an oversight on the Twins part. I hope that it isn’t his lack of tools to play the position. It would help the Twins to have that flexibility with his bat.
  16. jorgenswest
    Cabrera began his career in the minors as a SS and moved to 3B and then the outfield. Pujols played 3B in the minors almost exclusively. I need to be more clear. I wonder about a player who played exclusively corner outfield in college and the minors was never given a game at first base. My conclusion is that there are some tools necessary to play a passable major league 1B and not every player possesses those tools.
  17. jorgenswest
    When Larnach was in AA Pensacola in 2019 the Twins played Kirilloff some at 1B though he played more in the outfield. Pensacola played 9 players at 1B that year. Four of them have played in the majors. The 2021 Saints used 11 players at 1B. Eight have them have played in the majors. Larnach didn’t get a single game at 1B either year. Why? While I believe most major leaguers have tools to play 1B, there have been enough mediocre corner outfielder that have never put on a first base glove to lead me to believe that not everyone can play a passable 1B. It is possible to be a slow defender with a big bat and still have soft hands. I don’t agree at all with your choice of “dumping grounds”. I have too much respect for anyone who has made their way to the majors to characterize any role on the team as a dumping ground.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe it is a position any major leaguer can play. I think most infielders and catchers bring passable ability with their hands and feet to play 1B so maybe Julien can play passably there. I don’t know if Larnach or Wallner have the necessary tools to play a passable 1B. For some reason they made it through college and the minors without ever getting time at the position. This is a position in which their minor league managers often played 8 or 9 guys over the season. Failing to give Larnach and Wallner a look there could not have been an oversight.
  19. jorgenswest
    It does take some ability. It takes good feet and good hands to play first base. Hatteberg was a catcher. A catcher needs good hands, good feet and a good arm. After Hatteberg hurt his arm he still had the feet and hands. He still needed lots of reps but he brought some ability with his hands and feet.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am with you everything with the exception of giving Larnach a first base glove. it seems like the obvious play. A first baseman doesn’t need a good arm or good range. A first baseman can be left handed. For some reason Trevor Larnach has never played an inning of first base in the majors. He never played first base in college. He did play one game in the Cape Cod summer league in 2017. One. That is really unusual for a left handed throwing corner outfielder. It really helps to have good hands and feet to play first base. The Twins have not been shy about playing players around the field in the minors. Larnach played AA in Pensacola in 2019. The Twins AA team used 9 players at first base. Alex Kirilloff played 35 games there. It was his first time at 1B since being drafted in 2016. They didn’t use Larnach at 1B.
  21. jorgenswest
    The velocity on his sinker (primary pitch in 2023) has not approached his average velocity on that pitch in his only successful year. Do we expect that it will average 95 and touch 97 on occasion once he gets a few more outings in?
  22. jorgenswest
    I found his approach at the plate in his first training game encouraging. First at bat. First pitch down the middle. Line drive single. Second at bat. Takes ball 1 and ball 2. He took a called strike pitch 3 but he was ahead in the count. The pitch was in the upper away part of the strike zone. Pitch 4 was an outside middle strike that he lined out to left field. Third at bat. First pitch center up in the strike zone. Ground out. His approach didn’t work last year. I can’t argue with his approach yesterday. The one called strike was when he was ahead 2-0. He should shrink the strike zone when ahead. I suppose he could have taken that first strike in at bat 3 but at this point I would rather see him error on the side of aggressiveness.
  23. jorgenswest
    I do agree about the Twins needing to select the best 5. I have no idea how the determine which pitchers are the best 5. Data that I have access to from spring games is virtually worthless. The sample is far too small and skewed even further by varying levels of competition. The skilled eyes of those seeing the pitchers every day in training and games will be the best measure. I firmly believe spring training matters. I also know that spring training stats are meaningless.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would agree that there were no red flags for Topa. I also don’t think he did anything today to offer hope that he can repeat his one good season. The velocity on his sinker, which was his primary pitch in that good season, centered about 91. In 2023 his average velocity on the sinker was 95. I don’t think it is unusual for velocity to be lower at the beginning of spring training. I do think the Twins need to see average velocity hover around 95 before putting him on the 26 man roster.
  25. jorgenswest
    How would that be helpful to the future of the Twins? Why do we need to know? Seems like the best route to a new owner is a private process.
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