jorgenswest

Thanks for the update. Varland at 77 innings would ranked 7th last year. Duran at 69 would have ranked 33rd. There were several relievers without double digit saves and more than 69 innings including Clase, Hader, Scott and Iglesias. it seems like a pretty reasonable workload so far.

Bride has a career OPS of .640 with a career split where he has an OPS of .711 against right handed pitching and .517 against left handed pitching. That much reverse split didn’t make sense so I looked at his last three AAA seasons and he has hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching each year. He hasn’t hit left handed pitching so he can’t platoon with Julien nor should he ever pinch hit for Julien. His career defensive metrics center suggest he is an average defender. He is out of options and will likely be DFA’d when the Twins get some of their left side of the infield back. Seems like a reasonable temporary solution for 3B against right handed pitching.

Concur. To add… mlb gameday reported as a missed catch by France.

He can beat the odds. Brendan Donovan has played a just little shortstop professionally and Brandon Lowe hasn’t played shortstop professionally. They play a lot of second base. Both Lowe and Donovan also have played a lot of games in the outfield. They play well enough at 2B with very good bats. I don’t think Keaschall has the power of Lowe but maybe his hit profile is similar to Donovan. In any case he doesn’t have many professional innings on the diamond in the outfield or second base and he will benefit from the AAA season this year.

You could go to about 11:53 on the podcast. My paraphrase… The next step is full games and then back to back days. In mid May early June begin working in the outfield in practice off days before getting him back in game action in the outfield after that.

Jeremy Zoll on Inside Twins yesterday. He will progress to back to back at second and eventually progress to the outfield where he says the arm action is different.

Do you think Keaschall will stick at 2B? It is rare for a college second baseman to stick at that position. Virtually all major league 2Bs start as shortstops in the minors. Most that come in as drafted as 2Bs move to a corner like 1B or LF if they have enough bat.

I couldn’t watch Julien with a 1-2 count last year. Today he went after a 1-2 pitch on the high outside corner of the strike zone. It is progress even if he fouls it off down the third base line. For now he has earned that spot at the top of the order. If he was worried about losing his spot to Brooks Lee he responded perfectly. Other need to follow suit.

I don’t disagree. However, I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. I was simply curious if changing managers in the first 10% or so of the season has successfully turned around a season. You are right about wondering who they would call in? It should be its own thread and right now I haven’t done the work to make a list of who might be available.

I appreciate the addition. Maybe I should have expanded towards 40 games. Left them off because they were 16-22 at the time of the firing. After 30 games the Marlins were 15-15. I was looking for a team that fired their manager early in the season. I was looking for hope that this season could be turned around by replacing the manager. So far I didn’t find it. I think a new thread is warranted though. What elite managers are available to replace him? Is there a Jack McKeon out there to take over?

Can a team turn it around by firing a manager early in the season? Can the Twins? I was curious to look at teams that fired their manager early in the season and how they responded. My source was an article from mlb.com in 2018. 2002 Tigers started 0-6 and fired Phil Garner replacing him with Luis Pujols. They finished the season 55-106. Pujols was not retained as manager the next season 1988 Orioles started 0-6 and fired Cal Ripken Sr replacing him with Frank Robinson. They finished 54-107 after starting 0-21. Robinson led them to an 87-75 record in 1989. 1972 Padres started 4-7 and fired Preston Gomez replacing him with Don Zimmer. They finished 58-95. Zimmer led them to a 60-102 record in 1973 1991 Phillies started 4-9 and fired Nick Leyva replacing him with Jim Fregosi. They finished 78-84. Fregosi led them to a 70-92 season in 1992 and a World Series appearance in 1993. 2001 Rays started 4-10 and fired Larry Rothschild replacing him with Hal McRae. They finished 62-100. McRae led them to a 55-106 record in 2002. 1982 Yankees started 6-8 and fired Bob Lemon the manager that led them to a title in 1981. He was replaced by Gene Michael who was later replaced by Clyde King. The Yankees finished 79-83. King was not retained as manager in 1983 2018 Reds started 3-15 and fired Bryan Price replacing him with Jim Riggleman, They finished 67-95. Riggleman was not retained as manager in 2019. I was hoping to find a team that turned things around with so much season left to play but all teams finished with losing records. Now I wonder if a team can get off to a bad start like the Twins and finish with a winning record having retained their manager. Addition… There are at least a few teams that started similarly to the Twins and finished successfully after retaining their manager. 2002 Athletics started 4-11. They stuck with Art Howe and finished 102-60 1914 Braves started 3-12 (also 4-18). They stuck with George Stallings and finished 95-59-5 winning the World Series. This is probably the most famous of the turn around teams. It isn’t a parallel fit to the top set since I didn’t have a list of manager changes prior to the expansion era. 2021 Braves started 6-9. They stuck with Brian Snitker and finished 88-73 winning the World Series 1991 Twins started 5-10. They stuck with Tom Kelly finishing 95-67 and won the World Series.

The Friday starter will also start Wednesday. Pushing Paddack back to Saturday gives them the opportunity to skip his next start in the rotation with both a Thursday and Monday off. The next time he would be needed is April 26. By then Pablo is eligible to come back. I am not suggesting this is what the Twins are doing. It is what I would do if they bring up Festa. If Paddack fails again Saturday I would send him to the bullpen and hope Lopez is ready on the 26th. I would also support pitching Matthews on Sunday instead of Festa Friday but that wouldn’t push Paddack into a spot where he could be skipped.

I think Ryan fits my point. His strike out rate in the minors was 37% (same in AAA). It dropped significantly in the majors where that swing and miss turned into weak contact. Both home runs and hits overall are up in the majors as some of the weak contact in the minors turned into hard contact in the majors. Back to my original wonder… Will too much of the weak contact in the minors turn into hard contact in the majors? Ryan had a lot of space to drop in strike out rate and increase in hard hit rate. Does Morris?

I think Matthews pitched in the same day as Lopez. Both his performance and throwing schedule are a fit. I hope both Paddack and Woods-Richardson step up and make it really hard to take them out of the rotation when Lopez returns. If they don’t and Matthews outperforms them they must keep Matthews in the rotation.

The Twins will send Paddack, Woods-Richardson and Matthews against Detroit. Hopefully all step up and make it a difficult decision about how to proceed when Lopez returns. Can a pitcher be successful in the majors with strikeout rates under 20% in AAA? Dobnak was at 22% last year. I wonder if too much of the weak contact that Morris is generating in AAA will turn into hard contact in the majors.

Would you really put someone with no college or professional experience at 1B mid season? You probably can do it with an infielder. I might do that with a catcher. They at least have good feet and hands to play that position as well as managing balls skipping in the dirt. I can’t see how that would work with a corner OF mid season. How about Keaschall at 1B?

Everyone but Keirsey. Anyone recall a game where he has started? Unless Buxton is playing 162 they are going to need games from him this year. Maybe he is the one who needs to go and get some at bats before Buxton goes down. Alternatively they might try to get him a start once a series.

I have no idea. I hope someone steps up starting today and gets their name off this list.

I was betting on Vazquez at DH as part of the all right handed line up.

I wonder if they also try to match according to the kinds of pitches they expect to see. Is it random when Bader or Miranda are in against right handed pitching or are they selected based on the pitcher’s arsenal? Maybe it is defense. Do they go with Bader if they expect more fly balls?

We disagree. I think it is a health path in this case. Even if it was a reliever path I think he is still a starter in his first go in AA in the Twins organization. I also believe that the best path to a major league reliever is starting through AA. The regular work as well as the number of innings in a starter role is more conducive to developing. Every pitcher they developed in their bullpen was a starter in the minors. Funderburk started 17 games in his first year in AA. The only two relievers in the pen that were not starters in the minors are Coulombe and Topa but they weren’t developed here. They also were quite old before establishing themselves as major leaguers. You might argue that the development path of Twin pitchers is flawed. Maybe they should be putting them in a relief role in the low minors. How many pitchers have come up as relievers since Falvey took over and were spent most of their time in the minors also as a reliever in the Twins organization? Without searching I can think of Jovani Moran.

I really don’t think he is on a starter path as much as he is on a build up an arm path.

I would follow the same path that the Rangers did with Cole Ragans. Here is how they used him in 2021. He hadn’t pitched since 2017 while undergoing two Tommy John surgeries. He made it to the majors in 2022. I don’t think they need to treat every pitcher similarly but I this gives him the best chance to build up his arm. As a starter in the minors he will have a regular routine and throw more innings.

The goal this year should be finish the season healthy. In this case health is what they need to develop and not a role as a reliever or as a starter. I think the best way to get there is the regular work in the rotation once a week and the corresponding regular mound work outside of games. Once he gets through this year healthy they can figure out his role.

After two times through the rotation the 8th man in the bullpen is the Twins leader in innings pitched with 13. They are on pace to get 210.2 innings from that spot in the bullpen. In those 13 innings they have given up 8 hits, struck out 9 and walked 3 with an ERA of 1.38.