jorgenswest

Gasper injured today.

I really disagree with @Cody Christie’s assertion that the failure to try Hendriks as a reliever was the mistake. The Twins released him after the 2013 season. After that he went from the Cubs to the Orioles to the Blue Jays to the Royals back to the Blue Jays and then to the A’s. He pitched in relief 201 times in that span and earned one save. His ERA’s in his first three seasons with the A’s were a mediocre 3.76, 4.22 and 4.13 as a middle inning reliever throwing a fastball in the 94s. Something happened at age 30 in 2019 and his velocity the next few seasons was 97 and the ERAs were under 2. The Twins didn’t make a mistake of not giving a chance to a reliever throwing in the 94s. If there was a mistake it was a failure to help him find that 97 mph fastball. All of the other coaching staffs he encountered on his path from 2013 to 2018 had the same failure. The Twins can’t make that same mistake with Varland. They have already helped him get to a velocity in the upper 90s.

Does that best roster have a bench of Bader, Vazquez, Martin and Lee? My premise of choosing two was that Lee would be healthy and make the opening day roster. It could be a bad premise and maybe you send a healthy Lee to AAA for Gasper. Again I really want to know what everyone thinks is the best and not what they think the Twins will do.

I need to reframe my question. I don’t care about guessing what the Twins will do or projections. We will find out the roster soon enough. I think Keirsey and Gasper help the roster the most to start the season. @Brock Beauchamp has Julien and Gasper. Any others interested in giving thoughts on the best for those two bench spots?

I think these four are fighting for the last two spots and I am glad to have all four. Which pairing of these two helps the roster the most? Assuming Lee is healthy I am going to go with Gasper and Keirsey. I dismiss the notion that Keirsey doesn’t fit becuase he bats left handed. I would start him against right handed pitching 3-4 times a week with Larnach at DH or Buxton getting a day off. His defense and speed will be an asset to the bench. I am not confident that he can hit well enough to be more than a 5th outfielder that goes between AAA and the major leagues while on options. I would give him a chance to prove me wrong. I like Gasper’s bat off the bench. I hope he has enough trust at catcher that they would pinch hit for Vazquez on occasion but otherwise he duplicates positionally what they can get from Julien. I don’t know if he would start more than once or twice a week initially but I think there will be several games where he can help off the bench. Keirsey and Gasper are also older than Martin and Julien. Martin and Julien have plenty to work on in AAA. I think Gasper and Julien have nearly maxed out their growth in AAA. I would give them the first opportunity to claim a spot and never give it up. Note: If Brooks Lee can’t start opening day due to a back injury I would put him on the IL and add Julien.

Thanks. He was really effective that year.

I have. You are the only one to have offered a comp. He wasn’t effective and kept all year. Thank you.

Was there a recent pitcher on a competitive team that filled a low leverage/long relief role while staying on the major league roster all year? I realize that this can break down into a painful back and forth about low leverage and long relief. I will do my best not to add to that pain by accepting your comp, I am truly interested in a comp of what we envision for Castellano. Point me to a pitcher with the following characteristics. 25 or younger no options remained on roster all year Let’s do this in reverse. Let’s find a pitcher that fits those characteristics. I am curious about his role and how effective he needed to be to remain on the roster all year.

You will have to get by without great play from centerfield for a while. The Twins will need to get by at 3B. It is also an opportunity for someone to step up and claim and everyday role when Lewis returns. I like the possibilities in Miranda, Lee, Castro, Gasper and Julien with Keaschall and Eeles close. Someone can step up and claim the bulk of this playing time. It is so much better than having signed a veteran back up infielder who doesn’t hit well but is more trusted and given the playing time.

Has he done that repeatedly this spring? For his first several games of spring he took very few called strikes and the ones he took made sense (being ahead in the count and looking for a certain pitch), I didn’t keep it up and he did take a called strike 2 today in his second at bat before putting the ball in play on the next pitch, Continuing to work on that approach in AAA might be the best route for him but he appears to have a more aggressive approach on pitches in the strike zone. edit: Next at bat after I wrote this he took three called strikes.

In response to those that would sell low on Lewis… I would choose the injury prone more talented player over the less talented player that has a history of good health. It is hard to find a match for Buxton’s contract of 6 years at a little over 15 million a year (it was a 7 year deal but the first was still an arb year so it was lower.) Trevor Story received 6/140 that winter which isn’t an AAV match but closest for that term length. Chris Taylor received 4/60 which is closest positionally and by AAV. I rather have Buxton and gamble that he will be healthy should we reach the playoffs than Taylor. I know they lost that gamble in 2023 but that is still my bet. I would make a similar bet on Lewis.

Thanks Seth. what do you know about Hall?

The fastest path to the majors is in relief. It might not be the best path for his health. I wonder if starting once a week is a better route towards a healthy arm. @Matthew Lenz compared his path to Cole Ragans. Ragans hadn’t pitched in a game since 2017 when he took the mound in 2021 after two surgeries. The Rangers pitched him once a week staying almost perfectly to a 7 day schedule. He started 10 games and moved up a level and then started 9 more games. He finished healthy and made his major league debut in 2022

I started to respond about Bader and line up implications but realized that it will probably send this off the topic of Bader. I pasted my fear of the all right handed line up that Bader in RF foreshadows in a separate article.

The article of Harrison Bader in right field foreshadowed for me a line up against left handed pitching that will be entirely right handed. That might make sense if you look at the numbers in any individual pairing. It might make sense if games are simulated in a computer. I don’t think it makes sense in the play of the game. I recently read some thoughts about line up construction in the San Diego Union Tribune from Padres’ manager Mike Schildt. He was asked about his line up that alternates 1 through 8. I have wondered before if it helps pitchers stay in rhythm when they face batters from only one side. I haven’t seen data on this but I would like to see how a lefty does against a right handed batter after he has just faced a lefty. Are his numbers against right handed batting consistent with similar batters in an all right handed line up? I suspect that for many pitchers a manager makes the game too easy by sending up a one sided lineup. I would like to see Wallner or Larnach or both in those lineups. They might be the only two lefties the Twins have on the opening day roster. Podcasters and bloggers have beat the drum for right handed batting over the years but it sure seems that have a shortage of left handed bats right now. Let’s hope Julien will return to 2023 form or Keirsey is a better hitter than his minor league wRC+ suggests or Rodriguez and/or Eeles dominate AAA early and join the Twins in the first half. Until then let’s at least see Larnach or Wallner in the lineup. While we’re at it let’s also keep them in the game when they face that lefty reliever before the 8th inning. Someone is probably going to argue that Wallner has a career OPS against lefties of .510 or Larnach has a career OPS against lefties of .570. Bader and Castro are well over 100 points better for their career. On paper I can’t win this argument. I can’t win it in a computer simulation. The batter I wonder about is not Wallner or Bader. It is the next guy. Does Jeffers get a better pitch to hit from that lefty when he is following Wallner? Is that pitcher a little off balance and more prone to a mistake? I will finish by adding one puzzling split about Jeffers. For his career Jeffers has an OPS against lefties that is 137 points better than his OPS against righties. How is it possible that his OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher is 90 points better than when a game is started by a lefty?

Any reliever with options on the 40 will get an opportunity on the AAA shuttle. Jax was that guy. Sands was that guy. They seized the opportunity. Funderburk will have a chance to do the same.

Should they trade from their depth? No. The return won’t be significant. Do they bet on their depth and trade from the top 3? My answer is no but the return value would be high.

We can’t change the past. Moving forward, do you trade Vazquez this spring if there is an opportunity?

There is a fair chance we will get to the end of April and Vazquez will be hitting as he has the previous two seasons while either Camargo or Cartaya are hitting well in AAA. At that point there will be lots of noise for a change but that will be based on hindsight. I am wondering if there is anyone with the foresight to say let’s go with the young catchers. The argument might be at least one of the two will be a passable replacement for Vazquez and we will have better insight into the Twins catching needs for 2026. I think I would move Vazquez if the Mets will take on his contract and go with Camargo. That would also give Cartaya 4 games a week in AAA to give him a chance to approach that upside he once showed.

As author of the thread my main idea was to see if anyone was willing to go with Camargo and Cartaya to free up some money by moving Vazquez. So far the answer is no. A catcher for the future thread would likely have more interest but it wasn’t my intent. So… Anyone in support of Camargo getting his opportunity as a number 2 catcher? Is his defense good enough to fill that role?

I don’t believe the Astros have a fourth catcher. Janek is a few years away. It would be really foolish on their part to trade their third catcher without significant return. There is no a chance I would do that deal if I were the Astros. Why would they make their catching situation worse (you open with Camargo is not ready) and take on the Paddack money? If Salazar is available it sounds like the Mets should be calling the Astros instead of the Twins. … but this only distracts from the topic. A different thread about longer term options at catcher would be a better fit. I appreciate your thoughts that Cartaya and Camargo are not MLB ready yet. So far no one is ready to hand the job to Cartaya or Camargo and let Vazquez go.

In this case would the Twins DFA Castellano and then assuming he passes through waivers the Phillies can reclaim him outside of their 40? At that point he is their property again and they could trade him to the Twins.

Thanks. So waivers happens before a trade?

Castellano had more value to the Phillies before he was selected in rule 5. At that point he did not need a 40 man roster spot. Contending teams need to devote the majority of those spots to players they assess can help the team this year. If the Twins return Castellano to the Phillies, would the Phillies would need to give him a 40 man spot? If that is the case it may lower his value to them. A return of a player that has a few years before they need to be put on the 40 even if they are ranked a tier lower than Castellano may be sufficient.

The Mets lost their primary catcher Alvarez for up to 2 months. They have one other catcher on the 40 in Luis Torrens. I don’t think the contract will have them shying away from Christian Vazquez. The return wouldn’t be much more than salary relief which might not be put back into the roster. Should the Twins trust Camargo or Cartaya enough to offer Vazquez to the Mets?