jorgenswest

The A’s outplayed the Twins. After Clase dropped out there were two closers left. The A’s got the number 3 prospect. If the Twins stand steady with their demands they would get a better return. As @Mike Sixel suggests I don’t think they get the number 3 prospect. Can they get Salas though who is the #2 catcher and should be ready next year? If the Padres are willing to give up the number three prospect I think they are willing to give up the prospects behind him. If that Padres Miller deal happen and Duran is the only one left do the Phillies give up Painter? I don’t see how this an be viewed as any thing but a failure. Maybe the Twins are smarter than everyone and Abel is ready to join Ryan and Lopez as playoff caliber starters next year while Tait is ready to start in 2027.

Any prospective owner should be really upset at the Duran deal. I don’t want the owner who is not upset. I want one that was going to add for 26 and 27. Now the first task is to add to the top of the bullpen. Jax is too old to be counted on and Varland is the guy you would need on the put out the fire role. He has been as important as Duran coming in with runners in scoring position later in games. They need him in that role.

Don’t disagree. I think the two year value went down to what they received today. It wasn’t enough. Players with three years control don’t get moved at the deadline because they are too expensive. They get moved when teams take less than they are worth. If the Twins are looking for relief help next year and they aren’t getting significant help from these two they won’t get a Duran back in trade. It is easy to trade a Duran. It is very hard to acquire one.

Fine. No deal. Tait needs to be a Jeffers level starter in 27 or they should have traded with someone else.

I know they could get a B deal next year and keep Duran. If the argument is he might get injured then they might as well trade any playoff caliber player because they might be injured in the future.

They caved. There was a report that the Phillies were out because the Twins insisted on Painter. The Twins had the leverage. They did not need to trade Duran unless they were blown away. They didn’t get the catcher they need for 27. They didn’t get a starter that projects to be playoff level in 26 or 27. If you deal Duran for this much control the grade should be an A. If it is not an A grade it is an F. Absolute failure. The only way this is a good deal is when Abel is above league average and playoff quality starter next year and Tait is ready to replace Jeffers when he hits free agency in 27. When that happens I will be back to eat crow. Until then it is a failure.

Really good addition for the Twins. They did not get a catcher in this draft class and now they have that 19 year old catcher.

Looking forward to this post a week from now.

Absolutely agree. However they have to get the deals done. I assume they have targets within each organization. If they can get one of them for just Bader they need to pull the trigger. Holding out to try to get a better target may end in the trading partner looking elsewhere doing two smaller deals for a reliever and outfielder from separate clubs. The Twins can’t be left holding these assets.

Have fun Pierson Ohl. These men work so hard to get here. I enjoy watching debuts almost no matter how they go.

Fun game of baseball. Excited for Kiersey.

Do you think Ballesteros will stick at catcher? From Fangraphs full report From MLB Rushing has much better numbers as a catcher but might be more expensive. If they want to take a chance on a guy who has questions at catcher but can hit they could consider Luis Campusano. He might be a buy low they can pick up with giving up any key player with control. Ford would be awesome.

Selling off expiring contracts also opens a space in the roster and an opportunity to someone who they do control for next year.

I think Bader is simalar to Nelson Cruz and Eduardo Escobar. Escobar better three prospects with FVs 40+, 40 and below 35. For Cruz they got two 45s and Ryan slotted in below Strotman according the Fangraphs. To make that deal happen the Twins needed to add a prospect back. Someone in that 40-45 range for the Dodgers will have some success in the majors. The Twins need to find that guy.

Absolutely. Yes. Will the front office be willing to invest into this team over the winter? One more bat would really help. Maybe it is Jenkins. Maybe Rodriguez is healthy and impactful. Maybe Lewis plays at an all star level. I am not shutting the door on next season,

Eldridge has a 33.3% strike out rate in AAA with an 84 wRC+. He isn’t close to ready. Made hasn’t hit high A yet. High risk. De Vries has hit high A but has yet to put up offensive numbers beyond slightly above league average. DePaula is in high A but his defense at corner outfield is going to be shaky. All of these players have too much uncertainty. Three have upside given their age but my guess is only one of these is an all star level major leaguer and for three of them that is probably 5 years away. Let’s wait a year.

Saw this earlier but didn’t click through. Wish I hadn’t clicked now. Most are the very back end of the 100. My guess is one of the 5 turns out to be an average regular or number 4 starter. Most will use up options and service time on the early career performance roller coaster. If in time they become consistently useful it will be time to trade them for other FV 50s.

I watched the Lewis double and did not expect the runner to score from first. Hard line drive to left field that the fielder handled well. You expect a score on a double in the gaps but this was a shorter throw home than a ball in the gap. EV 106.4 and LA 16 one hop to the fence. Not a lot of air time to get home. If you watched it live and had a different take in that moment I can respect that. It is hard to respect an after the fact take. All of this Correa nonsense is overshadowing a great start by Zebby.

Are these among the many FV50s in the top 100 that will also span towards 200? These would be players like SWR when he was a prospect. Is it real top prospects like Anthony, Campbell and Mayer? The Twins would be fools to take a deal of what amounts to five FV50 prospects. They might be fools.

If I have mistrust it is in the ownership and would prefer that they hold onto these assets and let the next owners decide how to utilize them. As for the Berrios trade they did get two well respected prospects. Martin has not fulfilled his future value of average regular. Woods Richardson may fulfilled that future value of #4 starter. That wasn’t the blockbuster of the deadline. It was the Dodgers sending their top two prospects and two others for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz were supposed to be the key to the Nationals future as a top starter and everyday catcher, Ruiz has been their primary catcher but has put up a below replacement level negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons. They keep playing him because the investment was huge in the 8 year contract they gave him. Josiah Gray started for them in 2022 and 2023 with FIPS of 5.86 and 4.93. Early in the 2024 season he left with Tommy John surgery. He may be able to throw at the end of this season. The other two did not make it to the majors and have been released by the Nationals. Ruiz is 27. He could turn it around much like some of the similarly aged Twins in AAA that have shown flashes. Gray may still turn it around but their control of him is running out. He will be a free agent after the 2027. They have the same control for Gray as the Twins have for Ryan, Duran and Jax. If Gray does turn it around I suppose they can trade him next deadline and start the clock over. I do think the Berrios deal turned out well for the Twins. The key was taking that projected salary and instead of putting it in the owners pockets they went out and added Sonny Gray. The cost to the Twins was 1+ season of Berrios and Chase Petty. The return was two seasons of Sonny Gray, Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). If the owners don’t follow through and add Gray’s salary in 2022 then it is a bad deal. Do we have trust that this ownership will spend the resources to replace Ryan or Duran or Jax this winter? That was the key to the Berrios deal.

A catcher that they know will stick at catcher and be on the roster next year in place of Vazquez. In two years I would hope they step up to #1 catcher. Last year the Marlins received one of the best catchers on the board in Agustín Ramirez. It turns out he can’t throw out runners and is a passed ball machine. The bat is solid with a 103 wRC+ as a rookie. He plays more DH than catcher. I want the Twins to avoid that kind of catching prospect. Ballesteros looks very questionable to me. He gives up a high rate of stolen bases both per inning as well as success rate. I suppose we can’t be sure of any prospect catcher. I think we can’t be pretty sure that if a catcher is giving up stolen bases at a high rate in the minors they will do so in the majors. If they can’t block balls in the dirt in the minors they won’t do so in the majors. I shouldn’t be so definitive. Perhaps they need two more years in the minors to be an acceptable catcher in the majors. I don’t want to wait. I can wait on the bat to improve in the majors. The glove has to start at minimally a mediocre level with an expectation that it will be average soon. I think it will take average minor league play behind the plate in order to get to a passable level in the majors.

Out of context maybe not. Relievers are so critical to the playoffs because the additional off days allow them to have an impact in many games. In the context of the Dodgers or teams with the ability to spend so much money it might be harder to acquire a Duran than a Berrios. They are also building to win the World Series as opposed to win enough in the regular season to get to the playoff. I think 3 playoff years control of Duran is worth more to the Dodgers than two playoff years from Berrios. There are some other teams that have the resources to overpay for a top reliever. On a spreadsheet it might be the same or lean toward Berrios. The market can play out differently though. I hope the Twins hold out for more than the Berrios return.

I was thinking about that conversation also. The take that stuck with me was how many conversations it took to make a deal. It was my take on that podcast that led me to my push today for focus on these deals. They have a high number of expiring contracts and getting the best they can on those six would be a great accomplishment. They also need a catcher and those six alone seem unlikely to bring back that catcher. Maybe they have a catcher they believe in that is not ranked in top 100s but can be acquired for one of these six. It could be that adding Larnach to a Coulombe deal might push to a catcher that they like. It could be that they need to deal Jax to get that catcher. I don’t think Larnach on his own will get that catcher. I suppose he might be worth Luis Campusano if the Twins felt they could get the talent out of the one time top catching prospect. I would put all of the energy into trading the six and I will add the focus of acquiring a catcher. Duran and Ryan were not in the top 100 and were acquired in deals for players with expiring contracts. The clock is ticking in those six assets. The others can be dealt in the future.

I would prioritize differently. I would focus on the expiring assets that I can’t trade after the deadline. To me it is a good deadline if they get good deals for those six and use the two months remaining to give a shot to players in AAA. Larnach would be way down on my list and not a priority.

In 2018 they were around 8 games under at the deadline. It was probably hard to foresee the turnaround coming in 2019. They had control of Pressly and they really needed him in 2019. They signed Blake Parker. He failed and was released by the deadline. They then needed to trade assets for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. They should have learned that it is far easier to trade a good late inning reliever than acquire one.