jorgenswest

Are these among the many FV50s in the top 100 that will also span towards 200? These would be players like SWR when he was a prospect. Is it real top prospects like Anthony, Campbell and Mayer? The Twins would be fools to take a deal of what amounts to five FV50 prospects. They might be fools.

If I have mistrust it is in the ownership and would prefer that they hold onto these assets and let the next owners decide how to utilize them. As for the Berrios trade they did get two well respected prospects. Martin has not fulfilled his future value of average regular. Woods Richardson may fulfilled that future value of #4 starter. That wasn’t the blockbuster of the deadline. It was the Dodgers sending their top two prospects and two others for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz were supposed to be the key to the Nationals future as a top starter and everyday catcher, Ruiz has been their primary catcher but has put up a below replacement level negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons. They keep playing him because the investment was huge in the 8 year contract they gave him. Josiah Gray started for them in 2022 and 2023 with FIPS of 5.86 and 4.93. Early in the 2024 season he left with Tommy John surgery. He may be able to throw at the end of this season. The other two did not make it to the majors and have been released by the Nationals. Ruiz is 27. He could turn it around much like some of the similarly aged Twins in AAA that have shown flashes. Gray may still turn it around but their control of him is running out. He will be a free agent after the 2027. They have the same control for Gray as the Twins have for Ryan, Duran and Jax. If Gray does turn it around I suppose they can trade him next deadline and start the clock over. I do think the Berrios deal turned out well for the Twins. The key was taking that projected salary and instead of putting it in the owners pockets they went out and added Sonny Gray. The cost to the Twins was 1+ season of Berrios and Chase Petty. The return was two seasons of Sonny Gray, Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Kyle DeBarge (comp pick for Gray). If the owners don’t follow through and add Gray’s salary in 2022 then it is a bad deal. Do we have trust that this ownership will spend the resources to replace Ryan or Duran or Jax this winter? That was the key to the Berrios deal.

A catcher that they know will stick at catcher and be on the roster next year in place of Vazquez. In two years I would hope they step up to #1 catcher. Last year the Marlins received one of the best catchers on the board in Agustín Ramirez. It turns out he can’t throw out runners and is a passed ball machine. The bat is solid with a 103 wRC+ as a rookie. He plays more DH than catcher. I want the Twins to avoid that kind of catching prospect. Ballesteros looks very questionable to me. He gives up a high rate of stolen bases both per inning as well as success rate. I suppose we can’t be sure of any prospect catcher. I think we can’t be pretty sure that if a catcher is giving up stolen bases at a high rate in the minors they will do so in the majors. If they can’t block balls in the dirt in the minors they won’t do so in the majors. I shouldn’t be so definitive. Perhaps they need two more years in the minors to be an acceptable catcher in the majors. I don’t want to wait. I can wait on the bat to improve in the majors. The glove has to start at minimally a mediocre level with an expectation that it will be average soon. I think it will take average minor league play behind the plate in order to get to a passable level in the majors.

Out of context maybe not. Relievers are so critical to the playoffs because the additional off days allow them to have an impact in many games. In the context of the Dodgers or teams with the ability to spend so much money it might be harder to acquire a Duran than a Berrios. They are also building to win the World Series as opposed to win enough in the regular season to get to the playoff. I think 3 playoff years control of Duran is worth more to the Dodgers than two playoff years from Berrios. There are some other teams that have the resources to overpay for a top reliever. On a spreadsheet it might be the same or lean toward Berrios. The market can play out differently though. I hope the Twins hold out for more than the Berrios return.

I was thinking about that conversation also. The take that stuck with me was how many conversations it took to make a deal. It was my take on that podcast that led me to my push today for focus on these deals. They have a high number of expiring contracts and getting the best they can on those six would be a great accomplishment. They also need a catcher and those six alone seem unlikely to bring back that catcher. Maybe they have a catcher they believe in that is not ranked in top 100s but can be acquired for one of these six. It could be that adding Larnach to a Coulombe deal might push to a catcher that they like. It could be that they need to deal Jax to get that catcher. I don’t think Larnach on his own will get that catcher. I suppose he might be worth Luis Campusano if the Twins felt they could get the talent out of the one time top catching prospect. I would put all of the energy into trading the six and I will add the focus of acquiring a catcher. Duran and Ryan were not in the top 100 and were acquired in deals for players with expiring contracts. The clock is ticking in those six assets. The others can be dealt in the future.

I would prioritize differently. I would focus on the expiring assets that I can’t trade after the deadline. To me it is a good deadline if they get good deals for those six and use the two months remaining to give a shot to players in AAA. Larnach would be way down on my list and not a priority.

In 2018 they were around 8 games under at the deadline. It was probably hard to foresee the turnaround coming in 2019. They had control of Pressly and they really needed him in 2019. They signed Blake Parker. He failed and was released by the deadline. They then needed to trade assets for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. They should have learned that it is far easier to trade a good late inning reliever than acquire one.

Of the at least thirteen players that are on the TD trading block, where would you prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement in finding a good deal for Larnach? The 13 I have seen… Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Paddack, Vazquez, France, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Larnach.

Would you be OK with moving the 6 expiring contracts and then giving a shot to these three? I certainly would for Martin and Julien. I have lost trust in the management. I also think that at least two of the three will have to get a shot if the management does the most important job of getting a good return for the expiring contracts.

I am sure they have enough to take calls. Their leadership needs to be deeply involved in every move. We are suggesting they move more than a quarter of their roster before they even get to these three. They don’t need to trade the three above and the return would be minimal. Focus elsewhere and let’s see what they can do in the final two months when 6 or 7 roster spots open up. The quality if these trades is more important to their future than the quantity.

They need to do a great job of trading their expiring assets. That should be their primary focus. Let’s focus on targeting the return for Castro, Coulombe, Bader and even Paddack. Let’s see if they can find a match and get a lottery ticket for Vazquez and France. I will add one more in Jax but those conversations should be short. Set a too high bar and hold your ground. Stay focused on those deals that comprise more than a quarter of the roster. They can’t go into the frenzied trade deadline having serious conversations about 11 or 12 players. That would be a recipe for failure. Priorities Take serious offers on Jax. Do the homework on the top prospects offered. Get an A+ deal or retain him. Work hard in the deals for Castro, Coulombe, Bader and Paddack. Identify those players outside of the top 100 that will out perform their perceived future value. Find a new home for Vazquez and France and give those two months to Gasper at catcher and more playing time for Clemens. There is a lot of work to do this deadline. Let’s not distract it by trying to find a new home for the three above.

They should only accept anunrealistic offer where the overwhelming consensus is an A+ deal for the Twins and BTV doesn’t think it is a fair deal. They also need to manage this correctly. Let all of the teams fight over Jax. Hang up the phone unless the offer blows them away. Once Jax is traded at a high bar. Raise the bar for Duran and see if a team pays up. A good outcome is the Twins retain both. A great outcome is they get two 55 FV players for Jax. Players with a future value of #3 starter or plus regular while retaining Duran. If they get a catcher in the deal they could take more risk with future value there. If the offer is two FV 50 players I hope they pass. Players don’t start at their future value when they hit the majors. They will need to invest enough at bats or innings into a player playing below average for a few years to realize that future value of average regular or #4 starter. The hope would be by year 3. By the time they do hit that future value we will probably be talking about trading them soon after. They need to shoot higher than many of the players in the top 100 or they need to use their leverage and wait a year. Meanwhile they really need to focus on the expiring contracts. That is the real work here. Duran wasn’t a top 100 prospect and needed 4 years to get the majors. Ryan wasn’t a top 100 prospect but in his fourth year he is among the best starters in baseball. The real work needs to be identifying those players outside the top 100 and target them in return for Castro, Bader, Coulombe and Paddack.

@Seth Stohs reported that they released Cartaya and not Camargo. Camargo had Tommy John surgery.

Does anyone wonder why Caissie isn’t playing over Ian Happ for the Cubs right now? This is his second year at AAA so he has had plenty of AAA plate appearances to be ready. It has to be that the Cubs don’t see him as an upgrade to Happ. Perhaps they don’t want to expose his weaknesses to major league pitchers and drive down his trade value. Has Matt Bush dropped in value after outperforming Caissie in AAA but the struggling in the majors? Does anyone wonder why his strikeout rate increased in his second year at the level? It seems like it should drop with more experience. Caissie has a wRC+ of 142 this year. That is encouraging. It is on par with Gasper and Martin who have a 144 wRC+ for St. Paul. He is a right fielder that looks pretty similar to Matt Wallner to me. At this point his age is in his favor but there needs to be growth and the strikeout rate hasn’t improved. It is really hard to fix strikeouts and major league pitchers are going to take advantage of that swing and miss. I am listening on Jax but the Cubs need a better headliner for Ryan or Duran.

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following. There have been some good arguments about Duran losing 1 mph in average fastball velocity compared to 2023. Is that a decline and does it suggest further decline? I am not so sure. The stuff+ on his fastball is down a bit but the location+ is up a tick. He throws that fastball less than 2023 but the runs above average per 100 is actually better compared to 2023. Is it possible he has dialed it down a little and as a result it is more effective? At 29 Tyler Duffey had a 1.88 ERA in the COVID shortened season. In 2021 at age 30 he was still effective with an ERA that was 3.20 on July 27 and ending the season at 3.18. He was certainly discussed in trade talks after being a very reliable reliever over the previous 3 seasons with an ERA of 2.69. His age by age season results track closely with Jax. Duffey dropped considerably at age 31 and was unusable at 32. They missed that window to sell high. Someone today told me hindsight is 20/20 and they are absolutely correct. Since it is 20/20 there might be something to learn from looking back. They missed the window to trade Duffey. Could this be the window for Jax? I have shifted on Jax after a much appreciated back and forth with @Mike Sixel, @TheLeviathan and @chpettit19. We need a good return but don’t need to blown away here.

Putting this in before Jax pitches the 9th. I don’t want to be reactive but I think it might be the time to deal him. His age is a factor that might negate the two additional years.

We don’t know anything. I accept that. I think then FV value is more meaningful than a number. Would you accept a deal where the best player acquired has an FV of 50 in the various sources available. Maybe they get two of those guys. In your opinion would that be enough for Ryan? Duran? Jax? For me I think it would be for Jax. I need more for Duran. I need someone seen among the best for Ryan.

They haven’t done it. All they are doing is resetting the clock. Joe Ryan is finally to the point where he is a game 1 worthy playoff starter and they might trade him they fully realize his talents. In Duran’s case we needed to wait four years before he was on the roster. He wasn’t around to help the playoff teams in 2019 and 2020. Ryan wasn’t ready in 2023 to make an impact as a playoff starter. He has pitched two playoff innings. That isn’t doing it. Why are some so hopeful they are traded now instead of next year? Hardly any impactful player is traded with this much service time. Rightfully so teams ask for a king’s ransom to let them go. So far we have come up with Juan Soto.

Do you trust this owner and this front office to hold out to make sure they get this kind of talent? I am asking that they set the bar very high and be blown away by an offer. I don’t want them to take an offer that BTV would rate as equal. They have the leverage. Don’t settle for a two top 100 prospects.

Soto did have those three seasons playoff control. His haul was amazing. The return the Twins get for giving up three years playoff control better be a lot closer to the Soto haul as opposed to the Berrios haul. Otherwise wait a year It is far easier to trade a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran than it to acquire one and if we have new owners and possibly leadership by next deadline they can set the direction. As for comps I wonder if the Rays or Guardians have moved a pitcher with three years of playoff control at the deadline. They seem to be models of teams that keep turning over talent.

I am looking for comps of all star level pitchers that have been traded at the deadline with 3 seasons of playoff control left. There was one player last year traded with that control. For the previous season and a half he had been a league average player. Chisholm is not a comp. In all these discussions I haven’t seen anyone bring one forward but I haven’t read through every discussion.

It isn’t my board I am worried about. I don’t know anything and can only go by MLB or Fangraphs. It is the Twins board I am worried about. Did you hear Levine talk about how they use these boards to sell deals to the owner or the Twins base? They are already trying to sell us that they are insisting on multiple top 100 prospects. That is meaningless. Most of the top 100 are not going to be impactful major leaguers. I don’t know who is in the top 10 or so of their top 100 but that has to be the bar they set. They have to se it there and be right or wait until next year. If I trusted them more to be right I might be more willing. I don’t want to end up with a #4 or #5 starter and a bench player for any of these three. The return of two top 100s that they received for Berrios is not enough with this much control left.

That was the Berrios deal. Two FV 50 or 55 prospects in Woods Richardson and Martin. In Fangraphs updated report Martin was #48 and Woods Richardson was #85. In reality they were both closer in future value to the #250 than those in the top 10. The majority of the top 100 hasve a future value of 50 which extends towards 200. If the Twins are going to give up 3 years of playoff control they need to get more than multiple top 100s. They need to get more than they received for Berrios.

It doesn’t take many. There are a few. Otherwise I will wait until next year and take the multiple 100s if they are sellers.

Not high enough. It has to be a top 10 prospect and another in the top 100. Once you get outside the top of the top 100 the majority of players are not impactful major leaguers. Look back 20 years to the 2015 top 100 list. The top is pretty good short of Gallo and Russell. There are some very impactful players outside the top 10 but there are many more that have made little impact. Being in the top 100 is not that special. I need a 60 FV to headline these deals. Most of the top 100 has an FV of 50 and multiples of them isn’t good enough.