jorgenswest

Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year? It is hard to imagine them spending the money to fill the closer role in free agency. I get selling the door for this year. I don’t get selling next year. Sheehan is just returning from Tommy John with few innings pitched this year. Ryan is out this season with Tommy John. I don’t think I would count on either being a significant member of the staff in 2026 and the best predictor of pitcher injury is previous injury. They both have had significant injuries. I get that we need a catcher and the expiring contracts we have probably won’t help find that catcher. I just think the 2026 and 2027 roster will be better if they don’t make this trade. Teams can win with a mediocre catching group. Can teams win with a mediocre bullpen? Maybe Sheehan is a top closer of the future and that future is ready to begin soon. On the other hand if he is that close then maybe the Dodgers don’t trade for bullpen help and instead turn to him.

Prospects always seem so good. Fangraphs does a good job of adding some context with their reports and future value grade. Schlittler is in AAA with a grade of 45. He might be comparable to Morris in the Twins system. Hampton has a similar grade but the Tommy John surgery should take him out of the conversation. Selvidge is in AAA with a grade of 40 which be similar to Darren Bowen in the Twins organization. Castro might be their best expiring contract trade chip. A return of a Darren Bowen type prospect would be pretty underwhelming. Andrew Morris level gets a little more interesting but I would shoot for a someone with a Dasan Hill upside that is farther away.

Prior to the season Mick Abel had a Fangraphs future value of 40 which the describe as a back end starter with a FIP close to 5. The Twins need catchers but Ferrebus is 19 and is floundering in low A. Maybe in 2027 he finds his way to get a taste of AA at which point the Twins will need to make a rule 5 decision. I would guess his ETA is 2029 or 2030.

I wouldn’t do either but it is partly because I know Keaschall so much better than I know Bernal. They might need to trade a top 100 prospect to get another and catcher is a much more difficult position to fill. Top catching prospects are a premium asset.

The Cardinals do have some catching prospects with three in their top 6. 0ne of them has an ETA of 2029 though. Their current catcher Pages is solid defensively but has a weak bat. Herrera is their DH and third catcher and has been on the IL twice this year. He can hit but can’t throw out runners. Pozo is similar to Gasper. Teams need two catchers and I think Crooks and Bernal are their two catchers for 2026. If I were the Cardinals it would take a lot to pry away Bernal. If the Cardinals are going to trade Bernal they would do it to help them get to the playoffs and maybe win the division this year. They really need a catcher for 2025. They could use a bat and the outfield bats have been disappointing. Would you trade Keaschall for Bernal? The Cardinals would then need to move Donovan to the outfield to play Keaschall at 2B. Would you send Jeffers and hope Bernal is ready for 2026? Those trades don’t help the 2025 Twins. I wouldn’t do either of those deals now but if they still have Pages, Crooks and Bernal in the winter they would be a good team to try to match up with in a trade.

It is difficult to distinguish between soreness and injury. A player needs to be injured to go on the IL. Two starts back Ober was saying it was mechanics and that he has pitched through much worse. If he isn’t going to acknowledge the injury and there isn’t imaging to show a clear injury then I don’t see how they can use the IL. It seems kind of similar to when Joe Ryan pitched through soreness/injury. Was there also a similar situation with Kirilloff? In that case didn’t the Twins have to option him before he would acknowledge the injury? Part of being a successful athlete is fighting through pain. Our medical staff has to help players find that line between pain and injury better.

The Twins will need a platoon second catcher and a third catcher next year. If they are sellers at the deadline they should look to adding a younger catcher ready to be that back up. If they aren’t able to acquire that catcher with the expiring contracts they have to offer then they should give the job to Cardenas and see if his defense is good enough. His caught stealing rates are not among the best in AAA but they aren’t bad. I am not sure about the rest of his game behind the plate.

I utilize France differently. Clemens would get his time platooning at 1B. I think France would be a great option in the bench. His success hitting with a runner in scoring position will be a good asset on the bench. I also see Correa as a .760 OPS player going forward and that with his defense is hard to take off the field when the playoffs are still a possibility. If I look at slash stats in season I look at the three season aggregate to try to project the player going forward. I don’t think anyone’s slash stats in a half season does a good job of projecting the second half.

@Riverbrian That would keep everyone active. We both chose the route of catching Jeffers in 2/3 of the games. I was not confident that is wise but I did it on paper. I think it does get a little harder when I look at the potential pitching match ups for the week. In that case I really wanted a good defense for pretty much everyone but Ryan and then I don’t want to give Ryan a day that Correa is on the bench with Larnach or Wallner on the corners. It would think about defense a little less if Ober was pitching like we expected and Lopez was healthy. Another thing that comes up are the non-Chicago divisional games or games against teams like Seattle. These games feel like they are almost worth double and I wanted the best. I also haven’t tried to do it with every position player healthy. I look forward to that problem. When we get there I hope Lee and Lewis are playing so well that it makes it really for me to sit them one game much less two or three in a week. If they are it going to be hard to find space for all 13.

Skubal may be the best pitcher in the game. He isn’t as great as the Twins all right handed line up made him look. That was his second best performance of the year according to game score.

There is a lot of discussion on the Twins not utilizing Bride/Keirsey/Gasper. For the last month I have looked to the week ahead and tried to imagine how I might use 13 players. I do wonder how often does a player need to get at bats in order to stay in rhythm. I really don’t know and i am sure it varies by player. One start a series doesn’t seem like enough particularly when then start will probably be cur short for a pinch hitter. This week is the typical 6 game week. It is a little unusual as it looks to be 6 right handed starters. Priority is winning games at this level and in order to win they need their best hitters playing often and they need defense. I would start Buxton and Correa get all 6 games, The potential of their defense and gloves is too valuable. I would also start Wallner and Larnach 6 games. The Twins don’t have many left handed bats and their bats will be needed. I don’t like the outfield defense when both are out there so Bader and Castro will each get three games. Lewis and Lee are getting 5 starts and Castro will get the other two at second and third. Clemens and France will each get three at first base and be useful off the bench to pinch hit. Catcher is tough because there is usually a lefty where I can put Jeffers at DH. this week is 4 for Jeffers and 2 for Vazquez. The Twins have been extraordinarily healthy at catcher the last three seasons with their 50% play so I may be risking that health but Jeffers gets 4 games. I am not sure how I would get that thirteenth bat regular enough playing time short of injury (in which case they are really the 12th bat). Would they need at least three start for it to be relevancy. Certainly a start a week isn’t going to help with get them consistent at bats. If it were Bride I don’t think it helps to take a game from Castro or Lee or Lewis. They already have the off day and another day of rest and I am hoping Lewis or Lee are hitting so well that I want them 6 times a week. If Keirsey I suppose I could sit Wallner and Larnach each once but their power is an important element. Bader, France and Clemens are already at just three starts. I have this trouble every week. If they are facing lefty or two then I want to get Jeffers in at DH and I want Bader’s glove in the outfield an extra time. I have come to believe that the best use of that 13th spot is that of a specialist. Keirsey fits as a specialist better than Bride. I would like to think a pinch hit specialist would be valuable. It would be great to have someone that can consistently put the ball in play that you can call on with a runner in scoring position. Maybe that is a role for France as his career advances. Maybe Gasper can fit that role. It will require both effort and skill. The effort of spending a lot of time in the cage swinging the bat and the skill of hitting when coming in cold. What happens when Keaschall comes back and everyone is healthy? First that would be awesome. I think I would consider seeing how France does as my pinch hitter. Alternatively Castro in that specialist role would have the additional skill of stepping in nearly anywhere on the field in case of injury. He can pinch hit. He offers defense at several places. He can pinch run.

For this exercise you need to suspend the inclination that the Twins wouldn’t do this deal because they won’t take on any extra salary. My interest is whether this is a deal you would do if the Twins had an owner will to add a little to the budget. It is reported in the Athletic and by Bob Nightengale that the A’s can’t wait to trade Luis Severino. Severino is not happy with the conditions of their home park. His splits show it with an ERA of 3.23 on the road and 6.79 on the road. I should add his FIP is virtually the same home/road (4.31/4.29]. Would you trade Christian Vazquez straight up for Luis Severino and take on the remainder of his three year deal? Again for this exercise assume that you are willing to add to the budget this year. Argue the merits of the deal. Maybe you do it if the A’s add prospect capital to compensate the Twins for taking on the salary obligation. Maybe you would not take on that three year obligation think Severino is done. It sounds like the A’s would be all ears.

I am not an advocate of the all right handed line up. I know that Skubal is very difficult on left handed batters but they at least need to be able to break up his rhythm. Only two trams have tried the all right handed line up against Skubal this year. Both attempts were unsuccessful. I should note the Twins did get a win against Skubal last year with the all right handed line up. That was probably Margot’s best game as a Twin. He had a homer off Skubal and scored two runs. The game was tied when Skubal exited and the Twins scored off the Tigers bullpen to get the win.

Bride either needs to hit well enough to start or travel around the league as an injury replacement. If he hits like he did in 2024 he will get a chance to stick for a while with the next team. His skill set is too narrow for the bench. He can’t be used to pinch run. His defense is good at 3B but nobody carries a defensive sub at 3B. He isn’t a good short side platoon or pinch hit option because he doesn’t crush lefties. His reverse splits would be good to have in a starting 3B. Unless you want to go all in on platoon teams are not going to have a regular role for all 13 position players. I would not advocate platooning three players. We saw how that worked last year when Wallner and Larnach weren’t getting at bats left handed pitching. The player in that last spot or two on the bench really need to be able to help with defense, pinch running or pinch hitting.

If there is an injury concern he should be on the IL. Rest the hip and then get a full rehab in AAA. If there isn’t an injury then Pete Maki has to earn his pay and find a fix.

That is fair but there are risks for both. Paddack risks not getting the best possible deal for himself. By staying he risks another injury and the best offer he can get in return is a minor league deal. I think there is a better chance of an extension for Paddack than most heading to the all star break in their last year. I would not offer an extension. I think the injury risk is too great for Paddack. I would listen to offers but set a bar. For some of the others with expiring contracts I would take the best I can get. I would set a bar for Castro and Coulombe also and keep them if it is not reached.

In your title you called it a miss. You conclude with mistake. Those words carry very different weights. A mistake has a higher threshold. If it is a mistake then there is a lesson to be learned. Perhaps the Twins should never draft a pitcher in the first round since all pitchers come with a huge injury risk. At the time of the draft there was even more worry about the workload of a college starter than there is now. College relievers started getting drafted earlier. Perhaps the lesson learned was to never draft a college reliever in the first round. I don’t know if there is a lesson to be learned here. I still want the Twins to risk drafting pitchers. This is definitely a draft miss. Misses happen. Tyler Jay was drafted with the 6th pick. Only 13 of players form the 6 hole have surpassed 10 career WAR. Only two of the thirteen are pitchers. Rocco Baldelli is 13th on the list with 10.2 WAR in his career.. Draft with the 6th pick and the norm is a miss but maybe a lesson is to be learned. Perhaps pitchers should not ever be drafted so early. Only two have surpassed 10 WAR from that spot. On the other hand if you have a chance to get a Zack Grienke or Zack Wheeler it might be worth the risk of a miss.

I thought Festa was pulled at the right time. Really a good move by Baldelli. Kerry Carpenter had already seen 16 pitches from Festa in his first two at bats. As a result… Kerry Carpenter is removed for a pinch hitter mid game The end up using three hitters in that DH spot and don’t have a pinch hitter for the bottom of the ninth ending the game with the weak hitting Meadows. Coulombe does the job and gets the out to close the 6th. Festa ends the night with a win and a solid outing. How many times have we seen the other manager get Baldelli to remove a good left handed bat mid game only to need him in that spot later in the game? Nice to see it work out the other way.

It would have been better to keep him over Alcala but I don’t know if it was a big mistake. Henriquez has a good ERA. However he has allowed 11 inherited runners to score to go with his 12 earned runs allowed. Danny Coulombe has the same number of inherited runners and only allowed 3 to score. Cole Sands has allowed the most inherited runners to score with the Twins at 7. Henriquez has taken the mound 35 times this year. He has kept the slates clean in 18 of them. In the other 17 he either had a run credited to him or an inherited runner scored leading to a 54% successful relief outing rate allowing no runners to score. Alcala who was among the best at putting up crooked runners had better successful relief outing rate. Henriquez has probably had some bad luck with his inherited runners anllowed and good luck with his ERA. Teams trading for him are going to notice those inherited runners allowed and wonder if he is reliever who can put out a fire.

Thanks Mike. Do the Phillies have a summer update? Is it also reasonable to say a number 14 in the Twins organization would be similar to a number 6 in the Phillies organization?

For comparison here is Fangraphs take as well as their projected future value. Aiden Miller(55) - above average regular Justin Crawford(40+) - bench player/platoon player(+) Eduardo Tait(45) - Low end regular/platoon Mick Abel(40) - Backend starter approximate FIP of 5.00 Moises Chace(50) - Number 4 starter approximate FIP of 4.00 i would recommend ignoring numeric team ranks and looking to future value. A number 4 on one team can be very different from a number 4 on another. I would not be interested in moving Duran or Jax and their remaining control for players that have a future value of platoon/low end or back end starter.

For those interested in reliving the Molitor firing. Here is some original source material from October 2018 Aaron Gleeman speculated about it on his podcast. He was not a Twins reporter at the time working for Baseball Prospectus. He gives valuable insight in his Athletic role which is most often in the role of columnist not reporter. Dan Hayes does most of the reporting. The StarTribune if you are a subscriber Quotes from Falvey at that time

Buxton, Correa and Bader are very good but hard contact is going to win out. I think they are better off with the swing and miss and the higher pitch counts that come with strike outs. Lopez and Ryan might be able to trade a few strikeouts for contact while dialing it up with runners in scoring position in order to stay in the game longer. I think we see that from Lopez. Skubal can do it. If your dialed up form is league average or worse I think it is all gas/no brakes until handing it off to the pen.

Hitters today might be too good. It is hard to avoid barrels and get balls in play for outs. Ober is among the AL leaders in fewest pitches per plate appearance. His strike out rate is way down from last year. He can give them length but all of that contact is susceptible to a big inning. In two recent starts he pitched 7 innings but gave up 5 and 7 runs. Pitchers with great stuff like Skubel can ease back on strike outs but I don’t know if an average starter can stay average while trading strike outs for contact anymore.

You likely know this is a pen often repeated myth but for others Ryan has faced the top of the line up for a third time in every start this year. He has no starts of 18 or fewer batters. He faced the top of the lineup a third time in every 2024 start other than the where he was pulled after 7 batters due to injury. Ober and Lopez have seen the top of the line up virtually every start short of rain or injury. Woods Richardson in 8 of 11 starts. Paddack every start this year.