jorgenswest

Reading comments and I agree that it would really unwise to trade Ryan. Pitching is critical in the playoffs. In order to get three postseasons of Ryan or Duran I would want a 60 and a low risk 50/higher risk 55. I want two players with a projection to be an above average major leaguer if I am trading three years of key playoff pieces. The likelihood is at least one will not meet their projection. There aren’t very many 60s according to Fangraphs but the Dodgers have one in Rushing. I need another significant prospect with him. I think Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee also might have the elite prospect talent to make the deal.

Doesn’t Duran have the least service time among the three (Duran, Jax and Ryan)? I think they have this year plus two more years of control of all three. That is three shots at the playoffs with them where pitching is so critical.

Are there parallels of a potential Ryan deal and the Berrios deal? I think the Berrios deal worked out in the Twins favor but a Ryan deal would require more in return.

The Twins traded a year of control in the Berrios deal. Some are speculating his trading Ryan and his two additional years of control. What would it take for that deal to work out? The Twins traded Berrios with the current and next season of control. In those two seasons he gave the Blue Jays 1.5 WAR and -0.6 WAR. Key elements to the deal the Twins were clearly out of the playoffs and gave up the one extra year of control with a shot at the playoffs. they acquired two well regarded prospects. Martin had a future value of 50 and Woods Richardson a future value of 45. they replaced Berrios’ salary with Sonny Gray. Their 2022 salary was virtually the same but the Twins also had an additional season of control in 2023. Lopez salary slotted in to that top spot in 2024. The Twins received a comp pick for Gray and used it for Kyle DeBarge. Woods Richardson projected as a back end starter at an FV of 45 has fulfilled that projection thus far. He may outperform that projection if he approaches an average starter. Martin has not yet fulfilled his projection of an average regular. Overall the Twins maintained that salary slot from Berrios to Gray to an extended Lopez. Had they extended Berrios they probably would not trade for Gray or choose to extend Lopez. The cost for that slot that Lopez now fills was a season of Berrios (replaced by Gray) and Chase Petty a 50 FV prospect. Would they be better off today with an extended Berrios and Chase Petty or an extended Lopez, Woods Richardson, Martin and DeBarge? I think they are better off with that trade. Matching up the key elements the Twins would be trading 3 possible playoff seasons of Ryan as opposed to 1. If they play themselves out by the deadline it would be 2. to give up that extra season of control and possibly 3 seasons of playoffs I would hope they would get significantly more than players with an FV of 50 and 45. Ownership needs to be committed to replacing Ryan as they were with Berrios The elements don’t match up yet. They should wait a year and consider dealing Ryan if they are out of contention next year. At that time hopefully the uncertainty of ownership will be cleared up and there will be commitment to replacing Ryan prior to the 2027 season. Better yet let’s hope Ryan is leading them to the playoffs in 2027.

It is much easier to trade Ryan than acquire Ryan. I would keep him and his control and let the new ownership decide if they want to pay him. Also isn’t the pipeline a creation of bloggers and writers? Some seem to think it was a promise of Falvey. Every team will have trouble filling out a starting rotation throughout the season. Arguably the Twins started 7 deep. How many teams did better?

On Keirsey and apologies for taking this thread further away from Joe Ryan. They needed Keirsey's glove and arm yesterday. They needed it Wednesday. He made the running catch in the line out look routine though Swanson’s ball had a .350 xBA. Does Martin make that throw? Is he in the right position to make it? Does he take the correct route on Wednesday? Larnach and Wallner are part of the reason balls like that have a .350 xBA. Bad first steps and poor routes make catchable balls look out of reach. We know exactly why Keirsey is here. He does two things that are lacking. He plays a strong outfield on the corners. He can run better than most on the team. Is it worth a spot on the roster? That is debatable. Back to trading Joe. It is hard to know with the uncertainty of the ownership. Are new owners going to spend resources to try to win in their first few years? In that case I would keep their playoff caliber players in Ryan and Duran. I think I would at least keep them both through this season in hopes for new ownership and possibly new leadership. Give that team a chance to build these Twins. It is a lot easier to trade a Joe Ryan or Jhoan Duran than it is to acquire them.

Glad Keirsey was in right field last night. Great play off the wall and perfect throw. Also glad he made that running catch in right field to end the win on Wednesday. Keirsey made the play look pretty routine but that line out by Swanson had a .350 xBA. I thought Martin would be more useful this week. I don’t think he makes yesterday’s play. Wallner and Larnach are why balls like the one on Wednesday have a .350 xBA. Has Martin improved his first step and routes enough to make that play? Again it is a good thing I am not in charge.

False hope? Lame? I must have been enjoying the wrong game.

Rankings are not very helpful. They need context. A winter ranking of 50 or 57 across baseball is much different than a June ranking. It is the same for team rankings. Players graduate and the new class of draftees hasn’t arrived yet. It also needs the context of team. The Blue Jays system isn’t very strong. Isn’t it better to use future value? Nimmala has a FV of 50 by fangraphs. An average regular. He has gone from #87 to #50 in the MLB pipeline and that looks like he improved until you consider the graduates. You also have players hit the higher levels of the minors and struggle. How many Twins have we seen with a 50 in A ball that never became a significant major leaguer? Yesavage has a future value of number 4-5 starter. He just moved to AA and is encountering that struggle. How different is he than Marco Raya who has had essentially the same future value as he climbed the ladder? The Twins are offering three playoff seasons of a top reliever. If the Twins make the playoffs in any of those years Duran significantly improves their chance for success. These two wouldn’t in the next few years. So to answer the question “Could the Jays overpay?” I think the answer is no.

Does he remind you at all of Miranda as a minor leaguer? I am thinking about the Miranda who tore up AA and then AAA.

It is very encouraging to see Raya’s recent success. It is the quote above that jumped out at me though. Is Gasper a possibility as a catcher in the majors? I watched a previous good outing at catcher on MILB TV against the Mud Hens just prior to his injury. Morris and Baker pitched the bulk of that game. Gasper does not throw out runners well yet but maybe there are other aspects of catching where he is an asset. The confidence thing is important. Pitchers need to throw with conviction to be successful.

Let’s suppose this is an idea worth trying. It seems like the right time. They don’t have a viable fifth starter and they could be in selling mode. I don’t think it would be wise to send him to the minors to stretch out. Could they stretch him out in the majors? They don’t have a fifth starter. Start him in that slot and maybe he pushes towards 40 pitches. Make it a bullpen day. The next start he might get through 3 innings and around 45 pitches. It seems like this would give a better chance for the Twins to win those games than sending him out. Should they wait until next spring? I wouldn’t. Let’s find out if Jax is a playoff caliber starter as we close this season. If not return him to the relief role. I don’t know if it is worth considering. If the linked article hadn’t sourced Jayce Tingler in stating the Twins were considering it I would dismiss it as a possibility. Maybe the Twins considered and dismissed it this spring.

If they are sellers I wouldn’t add anyone to the 40 unless they are rule 5 candidates this off season. 40 man flexibility is important in the winter. If they are competing for a playoff spot and Jenkins can help add him.

It’s baseball. It’s entertaining. Perfect combo.

Bullpen is so critical in the playoffs. More critical than catcher. So many of the current Twins are controlled through 2028 like Duran. The deal is fair. They almost certainly would win this deal on paper when the WARs are calculated 6 years from now. I think it lessens the chance they will make a run in the playoffs. I wouldn’t do it.

In the spring I shared a quote from the manager of the Padres about line up construction. He was asked about an alternating line up. He talked about how it can be helpful to have both left and right handed bats in the lineup and that it can keep a pitcher off rhythm.This would vary by pitcher. It probably is more effective to vary the line up when the pitch mix and approach of the lefty vary more between right and left. It made me wonder if we are missing an important piece of data. While true that Larnach isn’t hitting well against left handed pitching, what happens the next few right handed batters after Larnach? Does the pitcher lose a little effectiveness? Plate appearances are not a bunch of independent events that can be optimized by spreadsheet. I don’t know the Twins optimal line up against lefties. Long term I think they are a better team if they allow their better left handed bats some starts against lefties. Game day I wonder if they make it too easy for the left handed pitcher to get in a rhythm with the all right handed line up.

We need a different word than snub. Snub means ignored, rebuffed or spurn disdainfully. Honestly now I need to look up rebuff and spurn to figure out if any fits. He wasn’t ignored. He wasn’t rejected in an ungracious manner. There was no disdain. He didn’t make the team though he and others that didn’t make the team were comparable to some that made it. The all star team starts with those votes in. Next the need to try to take the best player from teams not represented. That to me is clearly Byron Buxton. I don’t think Jhoan or Ryan were snubbed. That is a weighty word that makes it personal. The author ups the ante by claiming that it is not only a snub but the largest snub. Now it is really personal. Byron’s season has been better and got the honor to represent the Twins. The Twins have done nothing to earn more representation.

Assuming they are sellers I would move any or all of Topa, Coulombe and Stewart. Catcher should be a target both long term and next year. Dinges is a good target. I would also like to see them take a shot at a failed prospect like Campusano in return for one of their expiring contracts.

It is so hard to know their motivations. Did they utilize on of their options on Woods Richardson because they saw something they could fix or did they lose faith in him? Did they send Wallner down last year on options to fix something specific or was it simply his poor hitting? Last year they gave Wallner nearly 300 PAs in AAA to get him right. Is it the same with Julien and Miranda or had they lost faith in his ability to hit. I really have no idea. If they believe in Keirsey as a hitter they need to utilize that option. Right now they are using his speed and glove in most close games and it is helping the team in those close games. It also might be lessening the likelihood he will be a fourth outfielder getting 300+ PAs a year. Perhaps they don’t see that. I hope they send him down and give him a good run in AAA.

How do the Twins know what is the best line up? We need the Twins to have the staff that does a better job at knowing than any other staff. We also need them to fight the urge to react to all of the partial season stats and trust in their staff. If their staff is wrong it will lead to more losses. I don’t want a staff that doesn’t think they can answer that question though. That can’t lead to wins. If they have assessed that Wallner and Lewis give them the best chance to win they have to trust it. How do I know what the best line up is? I clearly don’t. My knowledge compared to the Twins knowledge would be a grain of sand on a beach. For what it is worth I thought Rocco used the thirteen position players well last week. Most found their way into games when they started on the bench. Keirsey was only used three times and all three probably improved their chance of winning. He ran for Larnach and took his spot in right field in a one run win. He ran for Jeffers and stole a base in a one run win. He ran for Vazquez in an extra inning game. I don’t think Bride (instead of Keirsey) would have been helpful anywhere last week. He could have been available to pinch hit for a left handed bat but would have been at best the third option to do so and that would be in games that Vazquez was also on the bench. I wonder if Martin would be more useful particularly in a week with a few left handed starters. I would say he would be a better option. I really appreciate the discussion. Also, that all right handed lineup I hate did pretty well last night. It is a good thing I am not in charge.

I think all teams have something in the minors that would be an overpay for Jeffers. The Padres have one of the best prospects in baseball in Leo De Vries. There might be a buy low chance on one of the best catching prospects in baseball in Ethan Salas. Would they move either in a package for Jeffers? Probably not. But Jeffers can be had. I want Salas, Campusano and a 45 rated arm if the Twins are sellers. Give Campusano the main catching role after August 1. The hope is the change of scenery will help catcher that once top prospect talent.

I hate the all right handed line up but if they have faced one lefty starter in the last 14 games. I hate the all right handed line up. I do think it knocks some pitchers off balance and gives us a better chance to beat that lefty if there are a couple of left handed bats in the line up. It does help the get right handed batters I don’t think a rotation or an every other day platoon is wise. Rocco spoke about match ups when deciding in Clemens or France. That is why they didn’t anlternate and each had two days off in a row. Maybe it is the same for Lee, Lewis and Castro. Rocco’s priority right now has to be to win the game in front of them. They have to fight to get back to relevance by the end of the month. Put up the line up that gives them the best chance to win today’s game. If the Twins get to August and are sellers every player on the roster that they control next year needs to get regular playing time. Until they become sellers it is playoff baseball mindset. Also… I am not trying to predict. I was just saying what I would do.

If they called offering Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield and Luis Campusano I would listen.

@Riverbrian A week ago this is how I said I would utilize the roster. Here is what the Twins did with my suggestions in parentheses.. Buxton, Castro(5), Wallner and Larnach started 6 games. Larnach and Wallner alternated at DH. Castro was useful playing moving positions in three of the games. Correa(6) and Lewis started 5 games. Lewis pinch hit in one. Lee(5) and Bader(3) started 4 games. Lee pinch hit in both the other games. Bader came off the bench in one game. Vazquez(2), Jeffers(4), Clemens and France started three games. Jeffers played in the other 3 games. Vazquez was a defensive sub in one. France pinch hit in two and Clemens 1. France and Clemens appear to be platooning. Keirsey came in for defense once and pinch ran twice. I still would have a hard time finding him three starts. Any fewer doesn’t seem enough to keep him fresh and could be counterproductive. Castro took a start from Correa, Bader took one from Lee and I knew Vazquez and Jeffers would each get three starts. The Twins did utilize their bench. There were 10 times a player didn’t get in at all. Keirsey three, Vazquez and Clemens with two and Correa, France and Bader with 1. This week they will see at least one lefty and probably two. Heaney is lined up for Sunday. Would Austin Martin be more helpful in that 13th spot? Would it be easier to find three games for him to start? I can see starts against the two lefties and they can find one against right handed pitching. He can take on the pinch running duties from Keirsey and he probably has a better chance to get on base in a pinch hit role. Defense? Keirsey is better but reports from spring training about Martin’s improvement was encouraging. That defensive sub was needed once last week. The Twins can make better use of that spot.

Yes. That is one of the dominos of the Max Muncy injury on July 2. The Dodgers really don’t have a 3B solution in the majors. They have moved one of their top prospects in Alex Freeland off of shortstop and to third base in AAA the last three games. My guess is they hope he can be at 3B in the majors after the break. Muncy is out 6-8 weeks. They have filled his AAA shortstop role with Noah Miller. Miller had a respectable 103 wRC+ in AA this year. His BABIP this year is .372 after .284 last year with .271 and .289 the years before that. Has his skill level changed or is it the random variation of BABIP in a small sample? Otherwise his walk rate is down this year and his strike rate is up. His line drive rate is virtually the same and his ground ball rate is up 10%. His singles rate is up. I suspect his move was due to the Max Muncy injury. I do look forward to seeing that glove when he gets to the majors but the bat appears to be the same question mark it was when he was with the Twins..