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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    As author of the thread my main idea was to see if anyone was willing to go with Camargo and Cartaya to free up some money by moving Vazquez. So far the answer is no. A catcher for the future thread would likely have more interest but it wasn’t my intent. So… Anyone in support of Camargo getting his opportunity as a number 2 catcher? Is his defense good enough to fill that role?
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe the Astros have a fourth catcher. Janek is a few years away. It would be really foolish on their part to trade their third catcher without significant return. There is no a chance I would do that deal if I were the Astros. Why would they make their catching situation worse (you open with Camargo is not ready) and take on the Paddack money? If Salazar is available it sounds like the Mets should be calling the Astros instead of the Twins. … but this only distracts from the topic. A different thread about longer term options at catcher would be a better fit. I appreciate your thoughts that Cartaya and Camargo are not MLB ready yet. So far no one is ready to hand the job to Cartaya or Camargo and let Vazquez go.
  3. jorgenswest
    In this case would the Twins DFA Castellano and then assuming he passes through waivers the Phillies can reclaim him outside of their 40? At that point he is their property again and they could trade him to the Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    Thanks. So waivers happens before a trade?
  5. jorgenswest
    Castellano had more value to the Phillies before he was selected in rule 5. At that point he did not need a 40 man roster spot. Contending teams need to devote the majority of those spots to players they assess can help the team this year. If the Twins return Castellano to the Phillies, would the Phillies would need to give him a 40 man spot? If that is the case it may lower his value to them. A return of a player that has a few years before they need to be put on the 40 even if they are ranked a tier lower than Castellano may be sufficient.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Mets lost their primary catcher Alvarez for up to 2 months. They have one other catcher on the 40 in Luis Torrens. I don’t think the contract will have them shying away from Christian Vazquez. The return wouldn’t be much more than salary relief which might not be put back into the roster. Should the Twins trust Camargo or Cartaya enough to offer Vazquez to the Mets?
  7. jorgenswest
    I hope you are right. Range factor needs a pretty large sample of multiple seasons but his have been consistently mediocre. It honestly could be chance. Maybe balls aren’t hit as often to centerfield when he is playing as opposed to the other center fielders on the team. Would Cal Stevenson and Andrew Stevenson be fair comparisons? Both are center fielders that lead off and have similar skill profiles. He didn’t get a 20-80 update on Fangraphs last year and didn’t make the top 43 Twins prospects but he didn’t get mention in the midseason 2024 update I can’t find where he has been anything other than “other players of note” in the Twins system beyond his appearance at #38 prior to the 2019 season. My search did not find every update but did find the recent one from mid season 24. I am not cherry picking here and would love to see scouting reports that are more encouraging.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think they made the right move by signing a veteran. They chose Bader. Keirsey is on the 40 and will get an opportunity this year. He will need to produce better than his minor league wRC+ numbers and range factor numbers suggest. The few times I have seen him play on TV my unskilled eyes tell me he is a major leaguer.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don’t know if Paddack is healthy or the ceiling of the healthy Paddack. I do see that his velocity this spring seems to be in line with the velocity over his career including his healthy 2019 season. I wouldn’t lock him into the rotation but I would trust the evaluation of the staff if they choose to start with him in the rotation. Last year Varland was removed after 4 ineffective starts. A similar four starts from Paddack and they need to look for another option. This is their last year of control. He needs to perform.
  10. jorgenswest
    It really changes the meaning of what I wrote when you omit. “Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back.” Without it you make it sound like I know that he will not be effective. I haven’t seen him pitch. I don’t have the skill to use the data available to me to make a determination of readiness. We have just wasted a whole bunch of time if the argument is about whether he is ready because I have no business being part of that argument. I have no idea. For fear of wasting more time… The Twins will need to make multiple moves with the bullpen over the course of the season. Last April 13 the Twins sent optioned Alcala after 6 outings (3 of them 2 innings) while giving up 0 earned runs. It was at least the second time in the young season the Twins needed to make a bullpen move. I do not support a move where they option out an effective reliever while retaining a clearly less effective pitcher that can’t be optioned.
  11. jorgenswest
    My position copied from the start of the discussion Rigid. I suppose. “Can’t devote a spot” is definitely rigid. We apparently disagree but I always appreciate the debate.
  12. jorgenswest
    Low leverage specialists shouldn’t be a role on a team like a left handed specialist or a shortstop. I think it is very difficult for a player without options to be hidden from significant use in medium and high leverage games. I looked at the 6 division winners and looked for their reliever with the most low leverage batters faced. I wondered how many games they saw in medium or high leverage. I will report them separately since it is possible that they saw both leverages in the same game. Competing teams need flexibility in the bullpen. Teams need to be willing to lose that 8th pitcher by DFA (Tonkin, Avila, Scott, Ruiz, Brewers) or put him on the option shuttle (Grove). That brings me back to my statement that a low leverage relief role doesn’t exist. The last spot in the bullpen of a competing team needs the flexibility that Castellano can’t provide. If he is effective he will be the 6th or 7th man in the pen. If he is not effective the Twins must return him to the Phillies. They can’t use a bullpen spot to develop a pitcher that isn’t ready for the major leagues. He needs to be ready now.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins were a 63 win team on the way to a 69 win season. I don’t think they make the same roster decision if they felt they had a good shot at winning the division. I still don’t believe a competing team can devote a spot on the 26 to an ineffective reliever they can’t option. If Castellano can put up a lot of innings with an ERA of 3.81 or 4.25 I am fine with the Twins rostering him. I am curious why FIP is better here than xFIP. Do you always use FIP?
  14. jorgenswest
    If the plan is to exclusively use Castellano in low leverage they should return him now. There are no low leverage roles for a competing team. There really aren’t long reliever roles either unless that player has an option so that they can be sent to AAA after an outing that will make them unavailable the next 2-3 games. Castellano needs to show enough that he can be trusted on the occasions he is needed in higher leverage. If he isn’t ready they need to send him back. A competing team can’t devote a spot on the 26 to a player not ready to compete at the major league level.
  15. jorgenswest
    Encouraged by Gasper but not sure what that has to do with my comment about approach. I am still paying attention to his approach. Today there was one called strike in 4 plate appearances.
  16. jorgenswest
    He blew two saves last year. Both games were extra innings. He pitched 3.1 innings giving up 3 hits, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk and 0 earned runs. In one game a passed ball moved the ghost runner from second to third before they scored. In the other game the ghost runner scored. He earned a win in one of the games and a loss in the other. Across his 5 save opportunities, he pitched 9 innings and gave up 1 earned run with up 6 hits, 7 strikeouts and 3 walks. I don’t know if Tonkin is the best option for the back of the bullpen. I just felt a strong need to put a context to that 40% number in support of a man who works so hard to play and stay in the majors. I add this comment hoping it doesn’t derail the discussion. A reliever coming in the game in extra innings with a runner starting on second should not be saddled with a loss. Had it been earlier in the game and that runner on second was inherited with 0 outs the loss would go to the pitcher that put him on second.
  17. jorgenswest
    Camargo and Cartaya are on a different part of their age path but both were signed by the Dodgers as international free agents at 16. The path to useful catcher in the major leagues is often a long one and the rule 5/option clocks can run out on teams. Let’s hope the Twins can benefit from that clock running out on the Dodgers. Cartaya needs a long stretch if not a full season of AAA in development. Camargo is ready to help right now and is probably at least the median third catcher. The Twins are wise to devote a 40 man spot to Cartaya to see if he can approach that ceiling projected when he was a 20 year old succeeding in High A. His .354 OBP as a 22 year old catcher in AA gives me some hope. I am glad both are Twins.
  18. jorgenswest
    Didn’t the Twins right handed batters have a much better SLG and OPS than their left handed batters last year?
  19. jorgenswest
    I have been paying attention to Julien’s approach this spring. No called strikes today. He stayed in the zone.
  20. jorgenswest
    I really appreciated the work from @chpettit19 to give us the breakdown by batting order position. It is helpful. The line up also needs to be strategic. The batters immediately before and after Wallner matter. The Twins need to do a better job of winning the substitution chess match this year. I think leading off with Wallner against a right handed starter can put the other manager can put the manager in a thought spot. Do you bring in the lefty against him knowing that he has to face Correa, Lewis or Buxton in the at bats following? There is a flaw in that thinking though. The manager can bring that lefty in against the number 8 hitter. If France or Miranda or Jeffers are in that 8 spot that might make the manager think twice about bringing in a lefty early. The Twins will have two or three lefties in that line up including Larnach and Julien. Batting Wallner first with Larnach 5th or perhaps Larnach 4th and Julien 7th is going to make it challenging to place that left handed reliever. The Twins can continue that advantage by keeping the game in the middle innings. Last year the other manager too often put the Twins at a disadvantage with the line up moves. Batting Wallner first might turn that advantage around.
  21. jorgenswest
    That Larnach throws right makes me wonder more why he has never been on the infield. Kirilloff didn’t play first base until he got to AA but is a player that was primarily an outfielder they moved to first. Kepler played 76 games in the minors at 1B. That is what stands out to me for Larnach. He never played 1B in the minors or college. The fit for someone like Larnach at 1B could easily be projected from the time he was drafted. I can only go by how the Twins have used him to conclude he doesn’t have the tools to play that spot. What are the other options? Larnach is unwilling to play 1B. I rejected that possibility. He plays another more important position so well that they would never move him off that spot. his use at DH negates that possibility. The Twins staff is so inept that it didn’t occur to them that Larnach might be needed 1B. Maybe that is the case but I trust in the staff and reject that possibility. They have played so many players at 1B in the minors. I hope it is the last case and an oversight on the Twins part. I hope that it isn’t his lack of tools to play the position. It would help the Twins to have that flexibility with his bat.
  22. jorgenswest
    Cabrera began his career in the minors as a SS and moved to 3B and then the outfield. Pujols played 3B in the minors almost exclusively. I need to be more clear. I wonder about a player who played exclusively corner outfield in college and the minors was never given a game at first base. My conclusion is that there are some tools necessary to play a passable major league 1B and not every player possesses those tools.
  23. jorgenswest
    When Larnach was in AA Pensacola in 2019 the Twins played Kirilloff some at 1B though he played more in the outfield. Pensacola played 9 players at 1B that year. Four of them have played in the majors. The 2021 Saints used 11 players at 1B. Eight have them have played in the majors. Larnach didn’t get a single game at 1B either year. Why? While I believe most major leaguers have tools to play 1B, there have been enough mediocre corner outfielder that have never put on a first base glove to lead me to believe that not everyone can play a passable 1B. It is possible to be a slow defender with a big bat and still have soft hands. I don’t agree at all with your choice of “dumping grounds”. I have too much respect for anyone who has made their way to the majors to characterize any role on the team as a dumping ground.
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe it is a position any major leaguer can play. I think most infielders and catchers bring passable ability with their hands and feet to play 1B so maybe Julien can play passably there. I don’t know if Larnach or Wallner have the necessary tools to play a passable 1B. For some reason they made it through college and the minors without ever getting time at the position. This is a position in which their minor league managers often played 8 or 9 guys over the season. Failing to give Larnach and Wallner a look there could not have been an oversight.
  25. jorgenswest
    It does take some ability. It takes good feet and good hands to play first base. Hatteberg was a catcher. A catcher needs good hands, good feet and a good arm. After Hatteberg hurt his arm he still had the feet and hands. He still needed lots of reps but he brought some ability with his hands and feet.
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