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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Lewis isn’t likely returning before the deadline and the current administration has DFA’d veterans approaching the deadline. Smith and Duffey combined for 6.3 million when they were let go justafter the deadline in 2022. Parker was DFA’d on July 23. I think letting go of Farmer is possible upon Lewis’ return.
  2. jorgenswest
    At this point last year I pushed on how the Twins could not string together multiple series wins. I don’t think they even had more than two in a row by the all star break. It was my reasoning for why the Twins should not be active at the deadline and should replace Rocco. If you can’t utilize your roster, manage your bullpen and keep everybody contributing it is going to show up by failing to put together stretches where multiple series are won. I think this is five series wins in a row. Well done.
  3. jorgenswest
    I suppose they could have let Lewis’ original injury heal which is reported to be 8 months. He would have missed the season. Is that what you would recommend?
  4. jorgenswest
    I always appreciate your strong takes. Do you believe the change in Larnach’s strike out rate and contact rate are significant and enough sample to be encouraging? His statcast expected stats based on the quality and quantity of his contact show a xwOBA that is behind only Correa and Lewis on the team. Is there any reason to be encouraged by his pitch/swing level data?
  5. jorgenswest
    Is that what @Seth Stohs has said? It is an offensive league so the run scoring context is different. I think it is fair to say slash stats or ERA are not useful as an indicator of readiness. I do think AAA play is valuable and a good indicator for the trained eyes of the staff. The pitch level and swing level data may also show some indication of readiness or lack of readiness in a large enough sample.
  6. jorgenswest
    That is a strong opinion. I think it is way too early to have an opinion so solid. There were strong takes early in the season about whether Miranda or Larnach can be anything beyond a AAAA player. Three months isn’t enough to definitively answer that yes but it too early to answer that question no at that time. The Twins would not be in playoff position without their contribution this year.
  7. jorgenswest
    They made their choice and took the risk of devoting a 40 man roster spot to a player that may not be ready and is not someone they will remove from the 40. I don’t think they can double down and try others not on the 40 and hope it works out unless it is someone like Dobnak that they can DFA. He is on the 40. I would keep give him until all star break.
  8. jorgenswest
    The league has been around a long time. The Montreal Royals had a long history from the late 1800s into the 1960s. Jackie Robinson played for the Royals. The Toronto Maple Leafs had a similarly lengthy run. It is those two franchises in particular that helped motivate the name International. https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/International_League
  9. jorgenswest
    The extra year or two of service time in a trade is very expensive. It would have taken more than twice the prospect value to get Burnes a year earlier. Going after rentals repeatedly at the deadline can be a much more efficient use of assets to acquire premium talent.
  10. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised if Lewis is back before deadline and more likely September. He was out from March 28 to June 4 with his grade 2 quad strain. The grade 2 adductor strain can have a shorter recovery time than the quad but I expect they will be making deadline decisions without knowing when he will return. Lee should get a long run to show he is ready.
  11. jorgenswest
    I would pay up for an everyday impact bat. Luis Robert would be expensive but he also may be a buy low. Go get him. Platoon bats or swapping out defensive catchers or back up infielders is not going to move the needle. The same applies to pitchers. Get a starter that will be starting playoff games or a reliever that they would have confidence closing games. I wouldn’t be interested in a middle inning reliever or back end starter. I am sure some are ready to argue that the Twins won’t pay up. I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. I would pay up in prospects and dollars to get an impact player.
  12. jorgenswest
    Got it. I wasn’t aware a record needed to be set straight. I thought it might be about trying to get more out of recent Pirates. You probably had Musgrove on Searage’s failure list also. His strike out rate went from 21.9% in 2019 to 33.1% in 2020 under the new management.
  13. jorgenswest
    His innings are very limited at 2B and it is a -4.4. He has more innings at 3B and it is a -9.6. In the big picture I see 15 different career numbers across 5 positions (UZR, DRS, OOA). His only positive number with a career UZR of 0.3 is at 1B where he also has -8 OOA. I don’t want to argue the bar for acceptable or derail this thread by debating defensive metrics. Assuming Steer has shown to be an acceptable 1B or even 3B if you prefer, I would do a similar trade this deadline.
  14. jorgenswest
    You rely the medicals from the trading team. Players aren’t submitting to physicals with every trade rumor. I would do the Mahle trade again when contending. If you can get a playoff quality starter and the biggest pieces you give up are two bats that can’t play average defense anywhere you do it every time.
  15. jorgenswest
    They did overhaul the pitching staff following the 2019 season. Gerrit Cole left after 2017. Is the comment still relevant?
  16. jorgenswest
    Farmer’s performance moving forward is the only thing that matters. Will his good bat against left handed pitching show itself the rest of the season?
  17. jorgenswest
    Gonzalez was probably in that upper group last midseason. You are right he is a drop. Deandre recently turned 20 and they don’t have rule 5 decision until 2025. Let’s hope his play makes that decision an easy one to put him in the 40. Thanks for posting these links.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is it that they don’t agree or is it the Twins have many players that are 40 or 45 and there isn’t a lot of difference from 5 to 32? How significant is shuffling in that range? A 45 is a low end starter/platoon player and 40 is a bench player which essentially is a platoon player. In pitching terms it is number 4/5 starter vs back end starter. Are there other sites that have someone joining Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez and Festa or see one of those 4 as a lower end major leaguer?
  19. jorgenswest
    I was aware of the data. Looking forward I would have more confidence in the three. Others may see Woods Richardson equally reliable moving forward.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am not interested in guesses in who they will bring up. We will find out soon enough. I am interested in what others would do. I think Festa has the most upside so I would give him the starts in hopes that he pitches well enough to stay in the rotation when Paddack is healthy. The risk of calling up Festa is that he isn’t ready and they devote a valuable 40 man roster spot to someone who isn’t able to help this year. Is it worth that very real risk?
  21. jorgenswest
    I would avoid slotting the new starter in on either side of Woods Richardson. That would give the greatest possibility of two consecutive short starts. I would slot them in between Ober and Lopez or Lopez and Ryan.
  22. jorgenswest
    I am a little confused. Why would anyone need to analyze? The WPA of each event is readily available. WPA 6% or greater from yesterday’s game. 1) T1: Margot doubled up on Lewis flyout to LF (-11.3%) 2) T2: Buxton’s home run (+11.1%) 3) T7: Castro’s single moving Santana to third (+9.2%) 4) T7: Buxton double scoring Santana with Castro moving to third (+8.3%) Doesn’t presenting in this way put the weight more on Margot? You can also see the impact of the sequence of plays in the 7th inning.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think they also disagree how each individual event is assigned to a single player on each team. If TD listed the three events that has the most impact on the game instead of player sums I am not sure they would disagree. I also think it tells a better story of the game.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would argue it doesn’t measure why a team won. It measures what it says. It measures the change in win probability for each individual event in the game. Isolating those events individually, the most key moments in the game can be highlighted helping to tell the story of the game. Assigning those moments as the single responsibility of one player can reasonably be questioned. A pitcher needs defense behind him. A batter is helped by runners on base in front of him. Summing those individual events for a game or season or career is probably not the best use for WPA and is as misleading as it is helpful. It should be used solely to tell the story of the game highlighting the most key moments.
  25. jorgenswest
    Last night’s game at Rickwood reminded of two impactful Twin minor leaguers that never got their chance in the majors. Chuck Weatherspoon and Ollie Brantley were cited by Rod Carew in his book as being a great help getting through the minors. Both started out in the negro leagues in the 50s. Brantley played for the Memphis Red Sox and Weatherspoon played for the Twin Cities Colored Giants. Both were in the Twins system for years playing and mentoring several future Twins including Rod Carew, Jim Kaat, Zoilo Versalles, Tony Oliva, Cesar Tovar, Bert Blyleven and Tom Hall. In 1961 Chuck Weatherspoon hit a record 7 grand slams for the Wilson Tobbs besting Jim Gentile’s 5 grand slams in the majors. He played in the minor leagues with the Senators/Twins from 1957 to 1969. He hit 230 home runs in his minor league career. Above is a photo from a 1961 Home Run Derby in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Roger Maris, Weatherspoon, Clyde King, Gentile, Jack McKeon and Harmon Killebrew. McKeon was manager for Wilson after recently finishing his minor league career as a catcher. Ollie Brantley played for the Twins organization from 1962-1969. In his best season he was 15-8 with a 1.63 ERA playing for Orlando. Rod Carew was on that team that went 77-57. After his seasons with the Memphis Red Sox he played 17 seasons in the minors. Tom Hall credits him with his development. Ollie Brantley tells his story. More on Ollie Brantley More on Chuck Weatherspoon
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