jorgenswest

These teams have yet to adjust as measured by OAA at 2B. Their primary 2B is listed in parentheses. Dodgers -3 (Lux -4) Yankees -5 (Torres -7) Astros -7 (Altuve -8) Orioles -7 (Westburg -7) The Twins matched the Dodgers at -3 with Julien at -4. Imagine how much better those teams will perform next year once they join other teams in responding to the MLB rule change on shifts. The Twins can get by with a below average defensive 2B as long as he makes up the difference with the bat. If Julien can approach his rookie performance with the bat he will be an asset at 2B.

If they can trade Correa and end up a better 2025 baseball team then make the move. I suppose that is possible but it won’t happen with a return of minor leaguers and replacing his salary with three mediocre players on team friendly contracts. I will add that the Twins were 42-43 in Correa’s 85 starts.

On surplus players… In 2024 there were 17 position players that played the majority of their games at the major league level. They did that with just two catchers. Those 17 players spent more of the 2024 season on the major league roster than in the minors. I would not count on Keaschall or Eeles or Helman as part of those 17 but I do expect one or two of them will get some major league playing time. There isn’t a surplus. They need major league caliber players with options. On Julien… If he hits close to his 2023 level they will find a spot for him. Mediocre play at second base can be offset with an above average major league bat.

I would be searching for Seven Guys. They need at least 7 they can count on when constructing a roster. Add to that with two catchers and two utility men leaving them with one platoon pairing to start the year. They should roster no more than one short side right handed platoon bat. Every other right handed bat has to be able to hit right handed pitching or contribute defensive flexibility. I really don’t believe it is a competitive disadvantage to start Wallner against a lefty. Place him towards the bottom of the order and he likely only sees that lefty twice while ready to crush that middle inning right handed reliever. I also think having a few lefties in the line up can throw that left handed starter off rhythm. Maybe they get Wallner out but are less effective against the next batter. Let’s start a search for seven guys. Right now I have Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Miranda, Rodriguez and Lee. Add Jeffers, Vazquez, Castro, Julien and Larnach. Find at most one short sided platoon bat. If they want to spend the dollars to upgrade that group and send out someone with options that is preferred as long as they add an everyday player to replace them.

Why did you choose WAR sole measure towards determining most valuable? Aren’t there things valuable to the team not measured in WAR? Could a reliever ever win? Why Baseball Reference WAR over Fangraphs WAR? Wouldn’t it be better to at least report both?

Given their self imposed budget constraints, I think the Twins have to bet on the upside of their younger, controllable and inexpensive players to start the season. The alternative is to bet on getting one more year out of an inexpensive aging veteran who we know they aren’t going to release if they struggle. I would go with Miranda over the alternative.

In ranking hitting ability I would use wRC+ over WAR. OPS+ and dRC+ can also be helpful. Those three can vary some in a season sample so I would probably look at 2-3 seasons weighing the most recent more. WAR has a lot of noise and can be very different for the same player in the varied calculations. It is a stat that grows with more playing time and hard to compare with players of differing plate appearances. It includes a positional adjustment so games as a DH will be worse than the same batting line as a corner OF. It is also a base running factor that isn’t very consistent year to year.

I have thought about Larnach at 1B also. I am not a believer that anybody can play 1B though or that it isn’t an important position. It is an option for a lot of players because handedness, arm strength and range are not critical. Good hands are critical and it helps to have good feet. The reality is that Larnach did not play an inning of 1B in college or the minors. Wallner hasn’t either though he played some CF and pitched in college and they may not have wanted to add 1B. It seems like a corner OF would have seen some action at 1B if his skills were any fit at all. I think Wallner and Larnach are strictly corner OFs and I think there is space on the roster for Rodriguez and the two of them. It will be OK if two of them were in the line up against a lefty. Bat them in the bottom half of the order and the starter will be out of the game before they see him a third time.

The comments about Diego Cartaya don’t match up with his performance. He hasn’t hit since 2022 with below league average marks in AA and AAA. He hasn’t controlled the run game allowing 195 stolen bases with 41 caught stealing over the last two years. Rushing and Cartaya both split between AA and AAA last year. Cartaya had an OPS of .686 and Rushing .896. Rushing threw out 30% of runners to Cartaya’s 16% and was Tushing was run on less often. In addition, Cartaya has one option year remaining and Rushing doesn’t need to be put on the 40 until after the 2025 season giving him 4 years before running out of options. It seems like the Dodgers would be fools to trade Rushing over Cartaya. Cartaya seems more likely a 2025 DFA candidate than someone ready to take over the Dodger’s catching duties in 2025.

This is about Rodriguez so I assume your comments of Keirsey is your concern that the Twins will not give Rodriguez a shot since they not give Keirsey a shot. Keirsey up a wRC+ of 119 in his second stint in AAA. He put up a wRC+ of 123 in his second stint in AA. That isn’t encouraging and suggest he will struggle to hit at the major league level. It does not suggest major league readiness with the bat. The numbers and improvement from his first stints do offer some hope that he will take a step towards 130-150 given enough time. Rodriguez in his first stint in AA had a wRC+ of 203 which followed seasons of 145 and 196 in A+ and A. That is a whole different world of minor league performance.

Does he have an option left? I would much prefer Kirilloff on the 40 man at his arb salary than a short side platoon right handed batting veteran outfielder without options. You know that veteran will be on the roster all year no matter how they perform.

Topa can not be counted on in the major league pen. He has exactly one healthy major league season entering his age 34 season. He missed virtually all of last season and had 2 injury setbacks in each of 2021 and 2022. Even if he is healthy his primary pitch (sinker) was at 92 last year as opposed to 95 in 2023. His velocity was also reported to be down last spring and in AAA. I argued last year that they could not count on him. They can’t count on him next year. He will have to overcome both injuries and decline. If they want to offer him arbitration planning for him to be the shuttle reliever from AAA that is fine.

Tender decision are about excess value. Does Castro provide clear value in excess of his projected contract? I am as confident Castro meets that bar this year as I was last year that Farmer did not.

Vazquez has value to this team. With a budget in the 160 million range they can keep him and meet other needs. At the current budget they are going to need to prioritize better their spending better than they did in 2023. Are there teams willing to pay his full salary and give up something in return? In that case I would trade him. I think his full salary used elsewhere is more valuable to the team. I would not give up prospect capital or pay off part of his contract or take on part of a DeSclafani/Margot contract in order to make a deal work. In that case I think Vazquez has more value to the team.

It isn’t about the money. It is about the roster spot. I would argue that Jackson was a bad signing. They were counting on these two last year and their failure to build a bullpen contributed to the disappointing season. If the plan is for Topa to start in AAA and be the shuttle pitcher from St. Paul I am in. If the plan is for him to be the number 4-6 pitcher in the pen I hope they roster someone else. I think it is foolish to count on a 34 year old with an extensive history of injuries and a single solid major league season.

I wrote a year ago that counting on a 33 year old with one healthy productive major league season was ill advised. I felt that counting on him be healthy and match his only good season also meant they wouldn’t look elsewhere for a more reliable solution. Will they double down and count on Justin Topa at age 34? He did throw 71 innings in 2023. You have to go back to 2019 to find a season where he hit 40 innings and that was exactly 40 innings. His next best was 26 innings. The Twins should never have counted on him being healthy and it would be a mistake to count on him being healthy next year. The 1.3 million isn’t prohibitive but writing his name in the bullpen will mean they won’t sign someone else to fill that slot. The same could be argued for Brock Stewart though he has a much higher ceiling. If Stewart is healthy he will be a late inning solution. I would offer arbitration Stewart expecting him to be injured for a good part of the year. I wouldn’t offer arbitration to Topa. A healthy Topa at 34 is as likely to be mediocre as he is to be effective and I doubt he will be healthy.

The off season goal for the Pohlad’s must be to make this franchise attractive. I am wondering how they will go about accomplishing that goal. Do they add to the payroll to generate excitement and ticket sales? Do they refrain from any multiyear obligations? Do they try to sell off some of their current obligations? Do they thin out the front office, support and scouting staff obligations or do they build up a strong foundation? I am a little concerned that they may try to reduce obligations and weaken the longer term foundation while trying to give an appearance of a competitive team. Hopefully the sale will happen quickly.

Cubs fans are mixed. https://northsidebaseball.com/forums/topic/53906-a-big-creative-cubs-twins-trade-that-just-might-work-for-everyone/

If the Twins can’t add a solid starting pitcher for next year they may as well be rebuilding. How can they add that starting pitcher? Add 15-18 million to the budget and identify the right veteran free agent pitcher. Last December the Royals gave Lugo three years and 45 million and Wacha was two years and 32 million. They did their work and identified two starters that propelled the Royals to the playoffs. these two pitchers likely were viewed by some as innings eaters not of playoff starter caliber. The Royals identified them and signed them early in the free agency window. Make a Pablo Lopez type trade. Do the Twins have an established Luis Arraez type player to trade? Budget was not a factor in this decision as the salaries were close for both of these arbitration eligible players. Willi Castro is not going to get it done on his own although the his salary will be similar to Arraez. It could be Castro plus significant prospect where Castro’s addition makes the budget work. Duran might be a better fit but his salary savings will make it hard to find a budget match in return. Make a Sonny Gray type trade His salary was a bargain at 12 million but the Twins would still need to be willing to add to the budget as well as part with a very good prospect or two. Make a Jake Odorizzi type trade Similar to Lopez in that they both were in arbitration and due a Willi Castro level salary. It is different than Lopez in that Odorizzi did not have the same perceived excess value so a less significant prospect would be sent. In order to make the budget work they would need to trade Willi Castro in a different deal for a prospect. Make a Corbin Burnes type trade The acquisition cost of trading for a rental is so much lower than a player with 2 or 3 years of control because the excess value is that much lower. They could seek a pitcher with 1 year before free agency but the only comp I see is Framber Valdez. The Astros have two large arb 3 awards coming this winter. Would they move him? Add to the budget or move a significant player? They really don’t have a player with both a significant enough salary as well as excess value beyond that salary to trade. The closest is Willi Castro. I think the only answer is to add to the budget. If they aren’t willing to add to the budget then it is a rebuild whether they call it one or not.

Offering arbitration to eligible players is not a budget decision. It doesn’t matter whether the Twins plan to decrease, increase or maintain their budget. There is not reason it should be a factor in the decision. The only factor in the decision is the excess value the player can be expected to provide over the expected arbitration award. The Twins front office needs to do two things well. They need to project the value next year including a good read of how other team’s perceive that player’s value. They also need to project the award. Two years ago they offered Urshela arbitration and then were able to trade him to the Angels for Hidalgo. In this case Urshela offered little if any excess value but the Twins did get a young pitcher. Last year they offered Farmer a contract. I suspect no team saw any excess value and the Twins were unable to trade him. Is Castro’s value clearly in excess of his projected award? That is all that matters. I given his age and value the last two years I don’t think this is a tough decision at all. He has excess value and is a tradeable asset if his salary does not fit the budget. Topa? I think this is a risk. He has one season in his career of more than 7 major league innings. There are too many inexpensive relievers on the market with a better track record of health. Trading him for anything helpful unlikely. My fear is they sign him with the expectation he is a solution to their bullpen only to see him injured or ineffective. Kirilloff’s option adds to his value. I have no idea how other team’s perceive his value but I think a trade is reasonable. I would start him in AAA and retain him. His option will give him chances to make it back in the roster. Duran? This one isn’t a tough decision. There is excess value. He is an asset that can be traded.

They should consider the assistant hitting coach from the Royals (Keoni DeRenne) and Guardians (Dan Puente). Both are in the early 40s and the promotion would be their first opportunity as the hitting coach for a major league team.

That wasn’t a lateral move. The Marlins hired him as bench coach. I suppose the Twins could have retained him by promoting him to bench coach and firing Shelton but they still would need to hire a hitting coach at that point. They probably land on Hernandez as they did then. I don’t see a dropped ball. Coaches from successful teams leave organizations for promotions routinely. It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins would be able to hire a hitting coach employed by another team. Do lateral moves happen often? If the coach is successful why would the team let him go? If the team is OK with letting him go then why wouldn’t they do that in the first place?

Reasonable to wonder. Including 2024 Milwaukee has four first place finishes since Falvey has taken over. The Twins have three. Neither has been to the World Series in that span. Each has won one playoff series. Prior to 2018 Milwaukee had a run of 35 years prior with just one first place finish in the division. You would think it would be hard to build a fan base that way. Maybe such a long stretch of poor baseball left the fans more hungry. The Twins have had many more division titles in the 2000s only to be followed by playoff disappointment. Maybe that frequent disappointment has curbed the Minnesota appetite for baseball.

The boost they needed from last year’s playoff run happens during the ticket sales during that run. It starts with selling playoff tickets to fans connected to purchasing packages for next season. The Twins didn’t get that boost or we would have seen it reflected in this year’s ticket sales. The front office reacted to the disappointing future sales by cutting the budget. There has also been some bad luck. They had a great regular season in 2019 and then couldn’t sell tickets for 2020. They had another first place season in 2020 to an empty stadium. They finally have success that wasn’t impacted by COVID-19 and even win a playoff series in 2023. You would have expected fans to be buying 2024 season packages during that playoff run. It didn’t happen. Some things are self inflicted. The TV rights has been a disaster. Cutting the budget to pre-Correa levels reduced their ability to field a contender. They didn’t generate revenue during last year’s winning season very well with average cost for a family of 4 ranking 29th. Only the Marlins generated less revenue from a family of 4 in 2023. We can look for where to place the blame but it is part the reality of choosing to be a follower of a small to mid market team.

That could be best for the playoffs if they can close it out before 162. The downside is that they lose a regular season start from Ober. As it stands Lopez and Ober can start four of the remaining eight games.