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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The data I have is such a small sample to make comparisons. It would be small after just one full season but his was cut shorter than that. I value the eyes of the skilled scouts much more at this age and limited play. Of everyone in the minor leagues he was number 3 (actually number 2 since Sasaki was not a minor leaguer). That is really significant.
  2. jorgenswest
    I am excited about Jenkins. A prospect at number 3 overall is very meaningful. It is great to have Rodriguez at 37 though a player at 37 is probably closer in talent level to the #100 prospect than the #10 prospect. Once it gets beyond the top 40 or 50 there may not be much separating those guys from the top 250. The Tigers have 5 and 6. I would trade our prospect pool for their prospect pool. I don’t think I would do that with any other team in the AL Central.
  3. jorgenswest
    The return would be Cease and a comp pick. I think the most valuable piece listed is Keaschall. I would be willing to deal Keaschall plus an arm for a year of Cease and a comp pick. I think that deal would be most comparable to the deal for Burnes and competitive enough to get the ears of the Padres as they listen to the interest from other teams.
  4. jorgenswest
    I see some parallels to Spencer Steer. They can run the bases, have a little power, possibly stretched in the middle of the field, put up 138/143 wRC+ in AA and college infielders. Will he stay in the middle of the field or eventually be a 1B/LF? Is there enough power potential to be a plus bat on a corner? I have enough wonders to think this might be the sell high point. A middle of the field prospect has more value than a corner player. At one point Jose Miranda was tearing up AA/AAA playing 2B/3B with a wRC+ of 158. Now we wonder if he has a plus bat as a 1B. Spencer Steer played 1B/LF with an OPS+ of 96 last year. I would sell high if he brought an impact starter to the Twins.
  5. jorgenswest
    No one knows what the Twins will do with payroll. Last year the proposed sale of the Orioles was announced in January 30. They made the deal for Corbin Burnes on February 1. The sale wasn’t approved until the end of March but I have to believe that deal was the new ownerships interest. Burnes is a good comp. Someone is going to offer a similar package for Cease. It is going to hurt to get Cease, I would pay the price.
  6. jorgenswest
    Corbin Burnes was traded for shortstop Joey Ortiz and LHP D.L. Hall, as well as the 34th pick in the 2024 draft. Hall was 25 and maybe lost a little of his prospect status. Ortiz also made appearance in the bottom half of the top 100 prospects. Burnes was coming off a season of 3.5 rWAR (3 year of 13.1) and Cease is coming off a season of 4.2 WAR (3 year of 13.0). I think a Cease deal would approach the Burnes deal. That is a lot to give up. I get the arguments about the offense isn’t contender caliber. I would go for it anyway and trade Keaschall with a pitcher. Hall did drop in status and looked more like a reliever at the time of the trade. I would start by offering Keaschall and Varland. They will probably get a better offer so it might take a better pitcher or third player. I would consider doing either. As for the salary arguments I don’t think a deal for Cease and the increase in payroll would drop the franchise value. It might even make a potential owner more interested. The Pohlad’s could be committing someone else’s money at this point. A deal like this might be a sign that the Pohlad’s don’t expect to own the Twins too much longer.
  7. jorgenswest
    Should any trade for Cease be thought of as a trade for Cease and a comp pick?
  8. jorgenswest
    Topa’s velocity on his primary pitch (sinker) was 92 at the end of the season and reported in the 90-92 range in his rehab. His velocity was 95 in Seattle the previous season. Injuries cause decline and age causes decline. I am hopeful but not optimistic on Topa. If his velocity on the sinker is 95 this spring I will be optimistic. Sands went the opposite direction with velocity adding 2 mph to his fastball. I think that is real so I am optimistic. Relievers can be one year mirages but often there is a clue in their BABiP or their ERA estimators are not in line with ERA. In Sands case his BABIP from last year is sustainable and his ERA estimators were in line with his actual ERA.
  9. jorgenswest
    What would a normal season look like from Topa? Is it the 2023 season or any of his others? 2023 appears to be an outlier to me. I will be watching his velocity this spring. It was down last spring before the injury. If his sinker and cutter are at his 2023 levels I will be encouraged. If not, I hope they use an option and see if he can work his way back.
  10. jorgenswest
    I assume they aren’t looking at baseball reference or Fangraphs to make decisions. They would have so much more as well as the skilled eyes of their trained staff. I don’t have the data or the skilled eyes so I stand by…
  11. jorgenswest
    Why trust any of the three? Choosing any as better than the other is folly all need more sample. In multiple years OOPS and FIP become relevant before ERA for major leaguer relievers. In a full career I would trust ERA. In the context on Henriquez I trust strikeouts and walks as I stated. I would add that I trust velocity but it isn’t as easy to find.
  12. jorgenswest
    With relievers it is really difficult to use any of the plate appearance result based stats other than strikeout/walk rates and maybe ground ball rate. The stabilization point of the components of OOPS at the major league level is over 600 batters faced. The most for Henriquez in a season line is 412 and that was when he was primarily a starter. If you want to look at platoon splits the sample becomes even smaller. There is just too much out of a pitcher’s control once a ball is put in play. We could look at multiyear data to get a larger sample but that doesn’t work so well for a minor leaguer who is playing at different levels and hopefully improving their skill level from year to year. I would probably go with the younger Henriquez to start the season over Topa or Tonkin but I can’t back it up with any data.
  13. jorgenswest
    It is a make or break spring for Henriquez. Is it best to use FIP for a reliever? Doesn’t it rely on home run rate which stabilizes at something over 1000 batters faced? A reliever isn’t going to come near that sample. I do remember reading something about mistake rate and location rate and a claim that they stabilize pretty quickly. If mistakes are leading to more home runs there might be an answer in that data. I don’t know how to find that data but I imagine the Twins have it. I do recall that Ober was among the MLB pitchers with a low mistake rate in 2023. I agree he needs to be better. I think he improved enough to remain on the 40 this winter. Now he needs to step it up to win and maintain a job with the Twins.
  14. jorgenswest
    Five catchers on the 40 doesn’t seem sustainable so at least one will be moved or DFA’d. How well did the Twins utilize three catchers in 2019 and 2021 when Astudillo was on the roster? I can see Gasper in that role if he can be an above average major league hitter and effective pinch hitter. He needs to be a better hitter than Astudillo. I can’t see the value in having any other combination of three catchers from the remaining four. How would it help?
  15. jorgenswest
    I would add that he was a minor league free agent after 2022 also. His 2024 BABIP was .148. His swinging strike rate of 9.3% would have been the lowest amount the Twins bullpen last year other a few pitchers that pitched very little.. Overt was 9.9% and Richards was 9.4%. That poor rate doesn’t fit with the claim of being among the best left handed relievers in the NL. Relievers are put in too many situations where it is really helpful to get a swinging strike. A .148 BABIP was extremely helpful last year but not sustainable to this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    It seems like it should be added that the Twins had 42 starts (25.9%) on 4 days rest last year without implementing a 6 man rotation. I also noticed that they did much better on 4 days rest than 5 or 6.
  17. jorgenswest
    Ranked 24th by MLB.com. Johan de los Santos ranked 23rd got 2.25 million. The guys following were between 1.1 and 1.4 million. Are you complaining that the Twins might have got a discount by signing one of their scouts kids?
  18. jorgenswest
    Thanks. A few notes on draft position leaders. Graig Nettles is the career WAR leader at #74 with 67.9. He edged David Cone. Dave Goltz is the leader at #97 with 23.1 WAR. Randy Jones is second with 17.7 Rick Dempsey is the leader at #297 with 25.1 WAR. No one else is close. Bert Blyleven is the career leader at #55 at 94.5. Rob Wilfong has the most WAR at #316 with 7.5 Lyman Bostock leads at #596 with 13.1 Butch Wynegar had the most WAR among players drafted in the second round in 1974 but his 26.5 is third among #38 picks.
  19. jorgenswest
    I appreciate this series. A few notes. Kirby Puckett was drafted in the 1982 January draft - regular phase. Frank Viola’s 47 WAR is the most from any player drafted 37th. Adam Jones is second at 32.6. Kent Hrbek holds the same honor at number 432 at 38.6 as long as I add caveat drafted and signed at 432. In that era many players were drafted in later rounds with no expectation they would be signed. In second is JP France with 1.0 WAR. Jim Eisenreich is the career WAR leader at position 401 with 13.2
  20. jorgenswest
    Widely reported or widely repeated? Was first hand news of the expectation to trim payroll sourced several times by multiple reporters?
  21. jorgenswest
    It does. That is the challenge of an international signing of a catcher at 16. By the time they are 21 they need to be on the 40 or open to rule 5. By the time they are 24 they are out of options. Cartaya has one option left. The Dodgers already have three other catchers on the 40 and one that is ahead of him in Rushing. A team contending for a pennant is going to need that 40 man spot for someone who will contribute to the 2025 team.
  22. jorgenswest
    If I am a prospective bidder I would make clear to the Pohlad’s that I don't want them to make deals sacrificing the 2025 season in order to reduce the budget. Trading Jeffers for a reliever or prospects will weaken the 2025 team.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins have one year to fix his bat and his throwing before he is out of options. The upside is there. To have any chance at that upside they have to work with him at AAA for the bulk of the season and find other payers to remove from the 40 when they have a need. The cost of the trade is not only Jose Vazquez but it is also a 40 man roster spot. At some point the Twins will have a need to remove a fringe player from the 40. If that player doesn’t pass through waivers it will be part of the cost of this deal. I would have done this deal. Catchers are a premium. He has more upside the other catchers in the organization.
  24. jorgenswest
    I was aware and should have acknowledged in post. I am assuming the Cartaya would not be the last add. At some point they are going to need to remove from this 39. They should offer the player that they view as the next to be removed.
  25. jorgenswest
    Who is the last man on the 40? Helman, Gasper, Keirsey, Headrick? I am not sure but that is who I would offer. The Dodgers can DFA that player and try to get them through to the minors. Otherwise I would wait to see if I get him on waivers. His ideal place is to a team that is not a true contender. That team can probably afford to give him a year in the minors and give up the flexibility of that 40 man spot. Maybe that does describe the 2025 Twins. As for defense Fangraphs has him at a 40 now with 55 potential so he is not ready. He allowed 55 steals in 62 attempts in AAA across 35 games.
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