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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Concur and further evidence that there are no low leverage jobs in the bullpen.
  2. jorgenswest
    It is the biggest challenge and they will figure it out. The ideal, for me, is an ABS and not a challenge system. The ABS can happen in the flow of the game without breaks for challenge or limit on number of challenges. The AAA trial just shows it isn’t ready. Significant inconsistencies had them tweek it last year and back off the ABS this year switching to the challenge system mid season. They don’t back off if it was at all passable right now.
  3. jorgenswest
    The same strike zone for every hitter?
  4. jorgenswest
    Huh? What does all that have to do with how smoothly the game moves along? So far the tech has not worked in AAA despite in season tweaks. They have now taken a step back from the automated strike zone in AAA mid season. I do think the tech will get there but the challenges of a 3D strike zone that changes with every batter are far different from the fixed 2D plane of a tennis court. It isn’t ready yet.
  5. jorgenswest
    Isn’t the game moving along smoothly now? It seems like adding tech can only cause the game to move along less smoothly.
  6. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the work @bean5302 I would just add that the bar for an average major league center fielder is much higher than an average AAA centerfielder. I would think very few on your list would be an above average or even average defender in centerfield when compared against the major leaguers. I think we should expect Keirsey to be a somewhat below average major league centerfielder but probably better than Martin based on his experience. He probably is similar with the glove to Cal Stevenson who is up with the Phillies. Cal in his limited 213 innings over his three cups of coffee has fielding metrics that suggest he is close to average. Cal has the better bat.
  7. jorgenswest
    That shouldn’t keep them from DFAing someone and calling on Keirsey if he would be an above average major league center fielder at the major league level. That he hasn’t been called on leads me to think he probably isn’t at that level. His Fangraphs field and arm scout scores of 45 show him to be below the major league average of 50. Those scores are for a OF and the bar for center field is probably higher. They may also be out of date.
  8. jorgenswest
    How are you sure that it was the umpire that got those calls wrong? Is everything that is captured in the 2D zone the correct call?
  9. jorgenswest
    He was in the minor leagues at the time of the injury. Someone will state this better but I don’t think he can be put on a major league 60 day IL from the minors. The Twins may have been able to call him up at the time and then put him on major league IL eventually moving him to the 60. That would have had service time implications that they would want to protect in order to maximize the time they have him under their control. It would also have taken great foresight that the injury would be a 60 day injury. In any case I am not sure that it would have been allowable to put him on the major league roster in order to put him on the 60 day IL. Assuming it would have been allowable, it still doesn’t seem a wise use of his service time.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins pitching is improved since the last two years. They are throwing strikes more often. Have there be fewer opportunities to steal a strike and more opportunities to lose a strike? Would that shift in opportunities skew the framing numbers in a negative direction? I have no idea. Bottom line is the Twins lead the AL in strikeouts this year and did last year. They ranked 10th and 12th in the two previous seasons. Jeffers has contributed to that improvement.
  11. jorgenswest
    If they had already signed Hill would they have brought up Matthews?
  12. jorgenswest
    What is the fascination with the word pipeline among writers and bloggers? I don’t think Falvey ever said it but somehow it is “Falvey’s Pipeline”. The problem with pipeline is there is no definition and hence a bar that can never be achieved. He did say in his opening press conference … and I think he has been true to those ideals. The pipeline seems to be a creation of podcasters or maybe TD itself. It is important to build a pitching staff with a foundation of controllable assets. Pitching in free agency is so expensive and lower tier free agents are too often unsuccessful. A foundation is best built by developing through the minors and acquiring pitchers in trade with multiple years of control. I think that has been a success. They did have a need for one more starter this year. Filling that spot with DeSclafani was a predictable failure. On the other hand, four million goes nowhere when trying to add a starting pitcher and that is on the owner.
  13. jorgenswest
    My fear is they will believe he is a solution to their bullpen ignoring the unlikelihood that any player at 34 will repeat their performance in their only good season. My fear is they will do because his salary will not be prohibitive.
  14. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t the Baltimore/Washington DC metro area be much larger?
  15. jorgenswest
    My hope is they don’t double down and tender an offer to Topa in arbitration. He will be 34 and the injury and age will add to the decline. He doesn’t have any space for decline. It is unreasonable to think he will perform anywhere near his lone good major league season. It doesn’t matter if the trade was a loss for the Mariners. The trade did not improve the 2024 Twins. It won’t improve the 2025 Twins. If they aren’t going to compete for free agents, they need to utilize their trade assets better.
  16. jorgenswest
    I listened to postgame. Rocco said it was a good play and wasn’t close. Still wonder if they were told to pay attention to that positioning and be aggressive as Vazquez and Castro were. That would still make it something they did in their own rather than called from the dugout. That is more about preparation.
  17. jorgenswest
    Vazquez was tremendous tonight. I couldn’t disagree more with the @Matt Braun 90 minute take. Great base running on that Martin groundball. Perfect lead, timed the pitcher well and went hard through second and third. Later he gets the balk. I am glad he is on this team. Castro also took advantage of deep positioning of Jose Ramirez on that steal of home. Was that something the Twins planned to exploit?
  18. jorgenswest
    Like I said I think Rodriguez would do it given his ability to play CF. I dont think Keaschall would be enough. I would have done a Puk for Rodriguez plus a marginal prospect deal. I also would have done just about any of the recent Twin prospect deals including the Mahle deal and Lopez deal and they don’t always work out.
  19. jorgenswest
    I made this mistake too. It did take a 21 year old that had 28 home runs (31 now) this year and already in AAA. Would Emmanuel Rodriguez be enough to top that bat given his position? On the other hand he is often injured and a level lower. I don’t think they have anyone else in the organization other than Lee and Walker that can win that deal.
  20. jorgenswest
    My guess too but not really my question. I wonder what is best. Should they arrange their top 3 to throw in that series? In September of 2022 the Twins were 1.5 games behind Cleveland with a stretch of 11 games where they would see them 8 times. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan were their best starters. In the opening 3 games series Baldelli started Bundy, Archer and Winder while the Guadians put up their top three starters. All Twin losses. Ryan and Gray got starts against a weak Royal team in between. In games 4-6 Ober, Varland and Winder were starters. All losses. Finally Ryan got a start in the 7th of 8 games against Cleveland. They won but it was far too late. Gray and Ryan could have and should have started four of those games.
  21. jorgenswest
    Should they try to set the rotation so that the top 3 start against Cleveland? If so, they need a solution for Wednesday and a 27th man starter for Friday.
  22. jorgenswest
    Can they option Wood Richardson and then bring him back as the 27th man on Friday? I know there is a 15 day rule but I think there is an exception for injury or 27th man. If that is the case they could consider bringing up Varland to start Wednesday. They would need to believe that the success he has had in his last four starts (22 2/3 IP, 13H, 27K, 9BB). wed - Varland fri - Ryan/Woods Richardson sat - Ober sun - Lopez mon - Festa tue - Varland The result would be there best three starters lined up against Cleveland. They would need to give Varland another start over Woods Richardson against Texas. I am not sold that giving a pitcher an extra day or rest or even skipping a start has any lasting impact but there would be an extra day or two for Ryan and Ober and longer rest for Woods Richardson. Can they manipulate the 27th man in this way? Should they? Edit: this doesn’t work for Varland. He pitched Saturday. They would have to do a bullpen day or bring up someone like Plutko for Wednesday to get the top 3 against Cleveland.
  23. jorgenswest
  24. jorgenswest
    AJ Puk? Can’t be. There must have been better relievers than Puk moved. As traded he had a declining strike out rate and a walk rate that has more than doubled. His velocity is a career low on all of his pitches except the change up where it is a career high. His BABiP and HR rate are at career lows. Is that sustainable? His velocity on the fastball and slider were both at or near career levels in his 2 Arizona innings so maybe they have something but his Miami performance was mediocre at best.
  25. jorgenswest
    Just copying the title and trying to redirect the conversation back to how that money might make a difference.
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