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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The numbers are unstable but I think a player’s skill is pretty stable. Skill will change with experience, injury and aging but it is not a bouncing ball.
  2. jorgenswest
    How are we measuring better? I don’t believe the skill is changing. I don’t believe Jeffers is better against right handed pitching. If we are using slash stats to assess better we need to wait a long time. Batting average stabilizes at 920 at bats. OBP is 460 PAs and SLG is 320 ABs. It would take multiple seasons of facing left handed pitching to get there. I suppose strike out rate (60 PAs) and walk rate (120 PAs) will be surpassed for a few in season. Note: the sample size number in a split might be slightly less because the sample is more controlled but plate appearances against lefties is still infrequent. I suppose that lack of consistency might necessitate a larger sample. Bottom line is that a partial season of a split is a poor predictor of future performance.
  3. jorgenswest
    How much should be expected of a player drafted 15th? Of the 56 players (3 recent picks omitted) chosen with the 15th pick there have been 3 all star level players in Chase Utley, Jim Rice and Chris Carpenter. There have been another 5 solid starters. Trent Grisham is next and might make a sixth. Scott Garrelts maybe should also be in this falling just shy of 10 career WAR. The next two with major league playing time that might approach this group are Sam Frelick and Alex Kirilloff. The three others that I omitted are hopeful prospects. At best there have been 10 players of 56 that have had solid or better careers. Twenty four never made it to the majors and another 12 that did had 0 or fewer career WAR. If selecting Kirilloff is consider a Twins failure then the failure rate for teams selecting 15th is probably above 80%. The success rate picking 20th is a little better. There are still ten players with 10 or better career WAR. Trevor Plouffe is next at 7.3. The ten will likely grow with George Kirby or Gavin Lux joining them. After that the next best bet currently in the majors is Trevor Larnach. The Twins did better than the median in drafting and developing Kirilloff and Larnach. That isn’t good enough for a small to mid market team that needs under control and inexpensive players. They need to get to the top quartile (Trevor Plouffe or better) with these two.
  4. jorgenswest
    I did not have confidence in Varland continuing with the top of their order. He doesn’t even do well seeing a batter a second time over his career. If the offense had provided a two or three run lead it would have been easier to send him out with the bullpen also getting ready. It is a tie game and little space for error. I thought the bullpen was better suited to keep the game at 0. I was wrong. The context of the game is important. It isn’t only about pitch count.
  5. jorgenswest
    Nuanced isn’t helpful. At the time I was thinking… Varland had only has missed 8 bats. he hasn’t been very good for a while even in AAA. the offense gave no breathing room and the score is tied. His career OPS against the third time through is really high (1.109) I don’t think those are nuances. Inept offense from the batters and a history of very poor results the third time through isn’t nuance. I think taking him out was the right decision. I could have had less confidence in Thielbar but he his numbers had been pretty solid the last 6 weeks. Like his first outing of the year he wasn’t close to a major league pitcher last night. In those two outing he gave up 7 runs getting one out. In the 20 in between he has 15 clean outings and given 6 earned runs for an ERA of 3.52 and a FIP of 2.81. Maybe those 20 were just luck and he should have been released prior to last night.
  6. jorgenswest
    In striving to “touch em all” again, they might need to go into the deadline letting other teams know that they can “touch em all” for the right price.
  7. jorgenswest
    The offense could have helped by scoring some runs in the first five innings. Give Varland a lead of two or three runs and they can afford to let him at least start the 6th and see the line up the third time through. I don’t know if Thielbar is done. He entered having an ERA of 2.84 over his previous 17 appearances. He allowed runs in only 3 of the 17 outings. Was that luck or was something off today?
  8. jorgenswest
    Send Sands out and keep Varland? If a reliever gets multiple innings today I think are on the way to St. Paul. I suppose if Paddack’s velocity is down again today he might be to the IL with Varland staying in the rotation. The other 4 still get that extra day.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins needs haven’t changed since the off-season. They need to add an everyday bat that will hit in the top 4 of the order. They should seek the best everyday bat they can add and not worry about position.
  10. jorgenswest
    A prefer a strong and competitive Al Central. I don’t think a World Series winner is likely to emerge from baseball’s weakest division. It is far better to play against better competition. It is far better to have to battle to win the division. Competitive teams in strong divisions are going to draw better. The competition will also expose the team’s weaknesses. I look forward to when standing pat at the deadline and cutting the budget in the winter is not a viable path towards winning the AL Central.
  11. jorgenswest
    They have depth and platoon players. Margot is just as likely to finish the year as well as any inexpensive platoon right handed corner OF. Trade for an everyday middle of the order bat or a playoff caliber starter or a late inning reliever. Otherwise the should utilize the players in the system. Julien, Waller, Lee and Rodriguez all have more upside than the inexpensive platoon bat they might add.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins can play. It is in their interest to force the Orioles to part with a load of talent.
  13. jorgenswest
    Reports are the Orioles are interested. If they are interested they have the prospect capital that will make it necessary for Jenkins to be part of any Twins offer.
  14. jorgenswest
    If Julien returns to form and Lee is ready there is space for both. Concur. I will bite. I can’t think of a Miller who was moved last off season that the Twins missed on and could have won the bid. Maybe you are referring to Bryce. I think the Seattle Times reported that DiPoto was not looking to trade Miller or Woo. Sometimes that is smoke but neither guy moved so I am guessing it would have taken a huge overpay.
  15. jorgenswest
    Julien has work to do and he might go backwards before moving forward. No more called third strikes. Let’s hope he starts fouling off that close third strikes in AAA to the tune of some long at bats where he won’t give in to the pitcher. It might take until after the all star break but I believe he will return to make the kind of impact he did in 2023.
  16. jorgenswest
    Jeffers executed the bunt to put Margot in scoring position for Miranda. That keeps him off my bad list.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think I used both. Using both prevents me from simply choosing the one that fits my narrative. Restricting to rWAR. It ranks him at 27th and 40th among starting pitchers in the previous two seasons. Should I expect that in a low end number 2 and a high end 3? I would have thought that should be around 60th.
  18. jorgenswest
    Should ranks ranging 10 through 47 and overall 16 put him in the low end 2nd or high end 3rd starter range?
  19. jorgenswest
    rWAR rank among starters 2022 40th, 2023 27th fWAR rank among starters 2022 47th, 2023 10th Fangraphs was easy to combine through today (no minimum innings were set) 2022-2024, 16th
  20. jorgenswest
    I didn’t intend to mislead. It is simply the data when the Twins have faced a left handed starter. He is 2/30 as a sub.
  21. jorgenswest
    The plan was to improve their line up against a left handed starter. In games started by a lefty few players on the roster have put up better numbers than Margot. He has a team best OBP of .370 in those games and OPS of .810. Castro and Miranda have better OPS. Kepler also has a better OPS often as a sub.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would give Kepler some starts against lefties sitting him no more than once a week. He would replace Farmer in the line up against some left handed pitching..
  23. jorgenswest
    I would probably use WAR because that will also reflect a sustained contribution.
  24. jorgenswest
    I am not sure it is wise to cut either at this point. Margot gets on base against lefties and is solid on a corner. The money is spent and that role is useful. The 2023 Farmer is useful also and seeing if that ability shows itself in June.
  25. jorgenswest
    Does that mean he would rank in the 55 to 65 range among starting pitchers over the last few years?
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