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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they get to a point where everyone is healthy. If they do get there the moves they make should depend on the point in the season. Castro, Margot and Farmer bring value to this team. I also expect all three to hit better than they did in April. If it is June 1, I would be motivated to keep them and utilize players with options to keep the depth.
  2. jorgenswest
    He has 695 plate appearances to start his career with a 105 OPS+. That is a pretty fair start where at his age you would expect the next 695 to be better than the first 695.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am fine with the plan to start him in AAA. Now that he is here and shown success they need to start him more against right handed pitching. He may be the every day bat they needed to find this winter.
  4. jorgenswest
    Alcala returns
  5. jorgenswest
    Matt Bowman traded to DBacks for cash.
  6. jorgenswest
    I got a thumbs down from you once that made me rethink. Thanks.
  7. jorgenswest
    I agree. Rarely use it but used it today on a front page article that seemed mean spirited ranking when players will leave. I had composed a longer comment on the decision to rank these 6 and then deleted and chose the thumbs down. Not sure what my better move might have been there.
  8. jorgenswest
    Castro is so valuable to the Twins and will be next year also. It is possible that he will lead the Twins in plate appearances this year without a defined starting position. He is second so far this year just one behind Julien. Last year he was 4th in plate appearances. He is an everyday player for this team without an everyday position. He can run, play key defensive positions well and has shown some pop in his bat. He is fun to watch.
  9. jorgenswest
    They just sent Boushley back to AAA and will announce a move tomorrow. They could take Boushley off the 40 and add Keirsey. That move might look like a reliever returning to the 26, Buxton on IL and Keirsey added to roster and 40. I am not sure they would want to put him on the 40 and limit their flexibility if it is short term. It would be fun seeing what Keirsey can do. He has earned an opportunity.
  10. jorgenswest
    I agree. I also believe Wallner will get untracked. His performance last year was real just as Miranda’s was in 2022. He will figure it out.
  11. jorgenswest
    A request that we focus on solutions and not rehash the decisions winter. What is your solution if it is short term? Long term?
  12. jorgenswest
    It has been a pleasure watching Byron run the bases and play centerfield again. I hope this is short term. I don’t think the maintenance plan worked last year. Byron needs to healthy to be an asset. If he needs to be down for at least a few days I hope they use the IL and get him fully recovered. Bring up Martin for 10 days and share with Castro. If it looks longer term they need to find a solution for centerfield. I would give the first shot to Emmanuel Rodriguez. Fortunately he is healthy and back in the AA line up. They need his speed and defense. He has on base skills. He is the best upside solution. He might show he is not near ready after a month. The next best longer term solution is Royce Lewis. If Miranda keeps hitting maybe they need to get Lewis prepped for centerfield. Let’s hope Buxton is back shortly. If not, let’s hope Rodriguez is up to the challenge. Otherwise Lewis has the skills to be a great asset in the outfield and an asset that fits well on the roster in the coming seasons. Lee will be ready. Julien looks to be a fixture at 2B. Carlos isn’t going anywhere. Miranda is starting to earn an everyday role. None of those players looks to be an asset in the outfield. Is there a greater likelihood of injury in the outfield? Running the bases is more risky and I don’t think so and you can’t hide a player from injury in any case.
  13. jorgenswest
    Boushley for Funderburk
  14. jorgenswest
    I would assume Festa is number 6. Who are 7 and 8 if you rule out Varland and Sands? They will be needed.
  15. jorgenswest
    Do you suppose an .056 BABiP gave the impression that he was pitching well? His K/9 is lowest among those on the roster and his BB/9 is highest on the roster.
  16. jorgenswest
    Statcast gave it an expected batting average of .530.
  17. jorgenswest
    After his first outing his velocity was down and I expected he would need the full rehab. Did you watch tonight? How was his velocity?
  18. jorgenswest
    Festa pitched really well tonight. He is probably next in line for the rotation and a 40 man spot if the need arises soon.
  19. jorgenswest
    Going into the bottom of the ninth the Twins had a fixed win probability. BR had their win probability at 79%. At the end of the game the Twins had a win probability of 100%. Doesn’t that additional 21% have to belong to Thielbar no matter the path he took to get there? His path happened to be +9, -10, +11, -10, +21. Had there been three consecutive outs it might have been something like +9, +7, +5. Either way doesn’t it need to add to 21 in the end? BR credits Thielbar with a WPA of .209 in yesterday’s box score. If he had blown the lead it would have been -.791. AJ Minter blew the save and lost the game in the ninth for the Braves yesterday and his WPA was -.805 as they had a slightly greater win probability entering the ninth. All this for a pretty useless measure that at best tells a story of the game but is not helpful at all for player evaluation or prediction of future performance.
  20. jorgenswest
    You can see the wild ride in the part of the chart that shows the bottom of the 9th. The three outs are the down slopes and contribute positively to Thielbar’s WPA. The two baserunner’s slope up and contribute negatively to his WPA. In the end they balance out and his final WPA is the same as it would have been if he had struck out the side. The Twins probability of winning went from 83.6% to start the bottom of the 9th to 100% at the end. The difference is Thielbar’s win probability added. WPA helps to tell the story of the game but really isn’t useful for predicting future performance or even in evaluating in game performance.
  21. jorgenswest
    Would his WPA be the same if he had struck out the side? Is it the difference between the time he entered and the time he left?
  22. jorgenswest
    I am not interested guessing or betting on what they will do. I am just saying what I would do. Tonight Julien or Larnach would be batting in the bottom third of the line up. Tomorrow night Miranda would be in the starting line up. For some reason Larnach has a better OPS over his career in games started by a lefty. It could be pinch hitting which he has done well but most of those plate appearance have come when he has started against a left handed starter.
  23. jorgenswest
    Castro for his career and particularly this year is better against left handed pitching. So is Miranda. I hope they start Miranda at least half the time they see a right handed pitcher. That could be in place of Castro or Santana. They really need to find another at least league average bat against right handed pitching. I think those days are gone for Santana but maybe it is in the future of the 25 year old Miranda. They also need to get Julien and Larnach some start against lefties.
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree. I just don’t see depth in starting pitching I would guess at least 8 pitchers will get at least 5 starts with the 6th and 7th closer to 10. There will probably be another two guys that get a few starts. So far they have used 6 starters. Even if Festa finds command and is number 7 who is the best candidate for 8. If a need occurred in the next few weeks I wonder if Sands is their best option for success.
  25. jorgenswest
    Is sending Miranda what you would do?
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