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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    In 1968 Cesar Tovar started 10 games at the same positions that Castro has played. He also played 11 games in right field while starting 8 and was the starting pitcher in the game he played all 9 positions.
  2. jorgenswest
    In the outfield Gavin Sheets is a career -20 DRS and -11 OOA across 1506 innings and at first base in 410 innings it is -4 and -3. Larnach is +8, +1 in 1473 innings. Kirilloff -3, -8 in 758 (-10, -7, 939 innings at 1B). If you scale to the same number of innings I see little difference. Neither Kirilloff or Sheets has been a good fielder. Sheets is a year and a half older and better than Kirilloff in the too small sample so far this season. I don’t think there is anything in the data to suggest that he will be better the remainder of his career.
  3. jorgenswest
    Listed in Bowden’s 5 trades he would like to see before the deadline. “Twins acquire 1B Pete Alonso from Mets for 1B Alex Kirilloff, RHP David Festa and 2B/OF Luke Keaschall”
  4. jorgenswest
    How much more likely is Sheets to have a better career going forward than Larnach, Kirilloff or Wallner? Sheets: age 28, free agent 2028, .703 career OPS Kirilloff: 26, 2028, .721 (about 1.5 years younger than Sheets) Larnach: 27, 2028, .710 Wallner: 26, .813, 2029 or 2030?
  5. jorgenswest
    Kepler is not a better hitter against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Any rest should be against a left handed pitcher. If they happen to see to left handed pitchers in a series he probably should start in one if those games.
  6. jorgenswest
    Do you think swelling is going to make it more difficult in the next week? I don’t know. If he was not healthy enough to be in the line up today due to swelling I would wonder. We saw how he did at the start of the season after he was injured batting game 1. We also saw him try to play injured two years ago without success. Maybe it is minor. If he needs a second day off tomorrow due to pain or swelling I would IL him.
  7. jorgenswest
    If Kepler is out I would put him on IL. He doesn’t play well injured. Call up Wallner for his spot and call up Julien for the extra. Calling up Varland isn’t needed and won’t be utilized well. They have a day off Monday so the starters who already just had an extra day will be on track. If they do call up Varland they need to be willing to let him go deep in the game to avoid relying too much on the pen in one of the games.
  8. jorgenswest
    Change is hard. If true changes were necessary it was irrational hope that it would take place quickly. Sometimes steps backward happens before being able to move forward. They really need Wallner’s bat against right handed pitching. It is encouraging that a return looks feasible now.
  9. jorgenswest
    I suspect the decision to rest Lewis frequently coming out of his injury is not on Rocco. I have no idea if it is a necessary decision. I would have pinch hit for Vazquez in the 9th with Jeffers. The organization may also have been intentional about full rest for the catcher in this long stretch of games. I don’t think that is necessary. The Twins also have managed to keep both Jeffers and Vazquez healthy for a season and a half but that could be a coincidence and not due to their usage. If the organization chose to make those two not available short of injury that leaves a bench of Martin and Farmer. Martin was utilized well. The other spot for Martin would have been to hit for Margot in the 8th but they are both pretty similar in putting the ball in play. Do the Twins need to be more transparent when they are giving players full rest in a game day? That would be foolish. It would be better to take the ridicule from the fans. They don’t need to let the A’s know that Lewis is not an option on the bench.
  10. jorgenswest
  11. jorgenswest
    Before they trade assets for position players they would be wise to see how Julien and Wallner do back in the majors. I should add to that list Lee, Rodriguez and hopefully Kirilloff.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins should be able to utilize the mystery of his handedness.
  13. jorgenswest
    I did my ranting about short sided platoon in the winter. I hated the roster decisions. As for the three players it is more likely that the league adjusted and they need to adjust back. Major league pitching exposed their weaknesses and now they need to overcome them. In Julien’s case I hope the demotion is a short one.
  14. jorgenswest
    The numbers are unstable but I think a player’s skill is pretty stable. Skill will change with experience, injury and aging but it is not a bouncing ball.
  15. jorgenswest
    How are we measuring better? I don’t believe the skill is changing. I don’t believe Jeffers is better against right handed pitching. If we are using slash stats to assess better we need to wait a long time. Batting average stabilizes at 920 at bats. OBP is 460 PAs and SLG is 320 ABs. It would take multiple seasons of facing left handed pitching to get there. I suppose strike out rate (60 PAs) and walk rate (120 PAs) will be surpassed for a few in season. Note: the sample size number in a split might be slightly less because the sample is more controlled but plate appearances against lefties is still infrequent. I suppose that lack of consistency might necessitate a larger sample. Bottom line is that a partial season of a split is a poor predictor of future performance.
  16. jorgenswest
    How much should be expected of a player drafted 15th? Of the 56 players (3 recent picks omitted) chosen with the 15th pick there have been 3 all star level players in Chase Utley, Jim Rice and Chris Carpenter. There have been another 5 solid starters. Trent Grisham is next and might make a sixth. Scott Garrelts maybe should also be in this falling just shy of 10 career WAR. The next two with major league playing time that might approach this group are Sam Frelick and Alex Kirilloff. The three others that I omitted are hopeful prospects. At best there have been 10 players of 56 that have had solid or better careers. Twenty four never made it to the majors and another 12 that did had 0 or fewer career WAR. If selecting Kirilloff is consider a Twins failure then the failure rate for teams selecting 15th is probably above 80%. The success rate picking 20th is a little better. There are still ten players with 10 or better career WAR. Trevor Plouffe is next at 7.3. The ten will likely grow with George Kirby or Gavin Lux joining them. After that the next best bet currently in the majors is Trevor Larnach. The Twins did better than the median in drafting and developing Kirilloff and Larnach. That isn’t good enough for a small to mid market team that needs under control and inexpensive players. They need to get to the top quartile (Trevor Plouffe or better) with these two.
  17. jorgenswest
    I did not have confidence in Varland continuing with the top of their order. He doesn’t even do well seeing a batter a second time over his career. If the offense had provided a two or three run lead it would have been easier to send him out with the bullpen also getting ready. It is a tie game and little space for error. I thought the bullpen was better suited to keep the game at 0. I was wrong. The context of the game is important. It isn’t only about pitch count.
  18. jorgenswest
    Nuanced isn’t helpful. At the time I was thinking… Varland had only has missed 8 bats. he hasn’t been very good for a while even in AAA. the offense gave no breathing room and the score is tied. His career OPS against the third time through is really high (1.109) I don’t think those are nuances. Inept offense from the batters and a history of very poor results the third time through isn’t nuance. I think taking him out was the right decision. I could have had less confidence in Thielbar but he his numbers had been pretty solid the last 6 weeks. Like his first outing of the year he wasn’t close to a major league pitcher last night. In those two outing he gave up 7 runs getting one out. In the 20 in between he has 15 clean outings and given 6 earned runs for an ERA of 3.52 and a FIP of 2.81. Maybe those 20 were just luck and he should have been released prior to last night.
  19. jorgenswest
    In striving to “touch em all” again, they might need to go into the deadline letting other teams know that they can “touch em all” for the right price.
  20. jorgenswest
    The offense could have helped by scoring some runs in the first five innings. Give Varland a lead of two or three runs and they can afford to let him at least start the 6th and see the line up the third time through. I don’t know if Thielbar is done. He entered having an ERA of 2.84 over his previous 17 appearances. He allowed runs in only 3 of the 17 outings. Was that luck or was something off today?
  21. jorgenswest
    Send Sands out and keep Varland? If a reliever gets multiple innings today I think are on the way to St. Paul. I suppose if Paddack’s velocity is down again today he might be to the IL with Varland staying in the rotation. The other 4 still get that extra day.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Twins needs haven’t changed since the off-season. They need to add an everyday bat that will hit in the top 4 of the order. They should seek the best everyday bat they can add and not worry about position.
  23. jorgenswest
    A prefer a strong and competitive Al Central. I don’t think a World Series winner is likely to emerge from baseball’s weakest division. It is far better to play against better competition. It is far better to have to battle to win the division. Competitive teams in strong divisions are going to draw better. The competition will also expose the team’s weaknesses. I look forward to when standing pat at the deadline and cutting the budget in the winter is not a viable path towards winning the AL Central.
  24. jorgenswest
    They have depth and platoon players. Margot is just as likely to finish the year as well as any inexpensive platoon right handed corner OF. Trade for an everyday middle of the order bat or a playoff caliber starter or a late inning reliever. Otherwise the should utilize the players in the system. Julien, Waller, Lee and Rodriguez all have more upside than the inexpensive platoon bat they might add.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins can play. It is in their interest to force the Orioles to part with a load of talent.
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