jorgenswest

Encore? Play SS at an adequate level and be the strong side of the platoon with Farmer. Is it feasible? Maybe. Assessments about his play at shortstop were made when he was dealing with a string of health issues that left him weak in the plate and the field.

For this to work the Twins need to take on the contract and get the better of prospects in return. If the Giants add someone in their 5-7 range like Carson Whisenhunt in return for someone like Sabato or Enlow it is a deal that could make sense given the roster position they are in today.

If a team were interested in a left handed bat that is a good defender in right field why not sign Joey Gallo and keep their prospects? The salary isn’t that different. Any team that would trade prospects to take on Kepler’s contract could have signed Gallo instead. It seems like the trade match for Kepler is a team that needs to offload some salary and take back Kepler. Would the Giants want to save some dollars by exchanging Crawford for Kepler and then adding a few prospects? How about Doctor Gast’s suggestion of a straight up deal for Marquez saving the Rockies some money? Where else can the Twins add a helpful piece for the short term by taking on a salary and maybe getting some prospects in return?

Signing either to a long term contract will not only be this years big commitment but also the big commitment for the next several years. Is either that pivotal player? They aren’t going to be signing a 25-30 million free agent every year.

Maybe not excel but a career .350 OBP is helpful. As for significant track record I am not so sure. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats. On base percentage at 460 PAs. He only has 371 PAs against left handed pitching. He also is moving into what are typically his peak seasons. I am not as confident the gap between the two won’t get closer. In Tony Gwynn’s age 23-25 seasons the OPS split gap ranged from 102 to 192. It ended much closer.

If you are interested you can look up Bill James similarity scores. For me it is fun to look at. Arraez really stands out as unique. For any other Twin you find their list to be filled with many current players because the context of the era matters for similarity. I took a look through Twin batters last year that have played for at least a few seasons and I have seen nearly all of those guys of the similarity list play baseball. Arraez is truly unique. Fun to watch and a fun list of similar players. I think his uniqueness will help him sustain a long career of success. This may be the peak but I expect a long plateau.

Great question. Has he peaked? That sent me to Baseball Reference to look at similarity scores to find he has time traveled from another era. Most similar through age 25? 1) Fred Tenney. Who? He started his career in 1894. 2) Jo Jo Moore. I have heard of thanks to playing APBA with a 1938 card set as a kid. 3) Roger Bresnahan. Hall of Famer overlapped Tenney’s career. 4) Ethan Allen. 1930s. 5) Arnold Statz. Who? I played his 27 APBA Season. No recall of him. 6) Sam West. See Jo Jo Moore and Ethan Allen. My hope was to look at this list of similar player through 25 and see what the rest of their careers looked like. The good news is that totter than Statz they maintained their skills wellI to their 30s. I hoped to see an increase in power but I didn’t. Not sure this means much since they played centered around 100 years ago. The next guy I have seen in person. 7) Tony Gwynn. and then back in time to guy who started his career in 1872 8) Jim O’Rourke. Hall of Fame. 9) Gene Robertson. See Arnold Statz. and former Twin I have seen play 10) Rich Rollins. Huh? No Rodney? Rollins is the only player on this list still living. I think he took a ball to the head around 25 and I wonder if that altered his career. Three Hall of Famers. Three that peaked around age 25. Four others with very long successful careers. Not sure it means anything. I think I would bet on him having a long successful career doing what he does best. Get on base.

Is it possible that he plays RF because he is really good at it particularly in Target Field? Maybe he is somewhat better than Gordon in CF but a lot better in RF. Maybe keeping him in RF is better for the overall defense.

Any other examples of a pitcher returning to success at 39 when their last good season was at 35? I wonder if this would similar to signing Archer where he is eased in slowly but never gets to the point where he can take the workload of a starter. If the Twins add pitching it needs to be at the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot.

The strange thing about Jeffers is he has a better career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher than left handed. The sample even on a career may not be significant but I think it is an artifact of batting near the bottom of the order and rarely seeing a right handed starter three times. Put him between two lefties and he is probably seeing a left handed reliever. I like Narvaez but I would go with the better defensive catcher between he and Vazquez. They have plenty of lefties that can pinch hit in a key moment late in the game.

D’Arnaud’s 2021 wRC+ was 78. He had a career high BABIP last year. He seems like a buy high and we would have to count on him putting up another over 100 wRC+ at 34 to make it pay off his BTV cost. His projected WAR is just a little better than Narvaez and Vazquez. Is it worth that cost? For comparison his BTV value of 13.3 is within one of Jeffers, Buxton, Thielbar and Rodriguez. The only one I would consider trading from that group is Thielbar.

As long as their payroll rank is near their revenue rank I am good. They do need to spend it well.

I don’t think Julien’s ability to play second base is near the level of Polanco or Arraez. Julien is probably limited to 1B with occasional play at 2B and 3B if they want his bat in the majors soon. The Twins need to have confidence in Arraez or Gordon or Martin at 2B if they trade Polanco.

Gary Sanchez was better than league average at throwing out runners. It wasn’t entirely the pitchers.

From the Mets point of view it was essentially a one for one deal for Joey Lucchesi. Lucchesi had a pretty good first two years in ‘18 and ‘19 before really struggling in 2020. The Pirates took a flier on a young catcher with just 22 games of GCL experience and a season lost to COVID. Kudos to their scout who identified him. The Mets took a flier on a pitcher who was close to league average their first two years. Kudos to the Padres who found someone to take their pitcher soon to need Tommy John surgery. All of that doesn’t matter now. Rodriguez likely will cost a little more than Jansen in trade. Which direction would be best for the Twins? Two years of Jansen or pay in trade a little more for full control of Rodriguez?

Those splits really take time to stabilize and even more so at the start of a career. Did you know that Jeffers’ OPS splits are better in games started by a right handed pitcher than a left handed pitcher (.688 v .648)?

The Pirates Rodriguez is a more valuable prospect than the Twins Rodriguez. According the BTV more than twice as valuable. Our Rodriguez might rank 6th in their system. The Pirates also have two 23 years olds and a 22 year old that were rookies last year and more valuable than our Rodriguez to add to those 6. Being a top prospect in the Twins system might not mean that much.

Would an offer like Ober, Julien and Enlow be enough? It is almost the value of Rodriguez in BTV. The could also offer Rodriguez, Martin and Prielipp which comes up a little shorter on BTV but gives the Pirates more upside.

This was the source I used but it must have changed. I do have a little more confidence that his back trouble in September is not as worrisome if the Mariners made that offer.

Weren’t there similar concerns about Koskie’s range and arm accuracy? They were certainly rewarded for taking the risk of giving him a shot a third. I think Miranda will do the work to play a passable 3B.

The Mariners did not make a qualifying offer on Haniger and instead traded a good prospect and reliever to the Blue Jays. Why not offer Haniger the one year deal and keep Macko and Swanson? Worst care they would get the pick. Were they afraid he would take the deal? Maybe the worst case is worry about his back. He missed a week with back trouble in September. It was his back that caused him to miss much of 2019 and all of 2020. Perhaps the likelihood of injury was to great to make the offer. They went out and traded two valuable players to get a right fielder they feel they can count on. Should the Twins be confident they can count on Haniger to stay healthy? If the Mariners who know him well won’t extend a one year offer should the Twins be offering 3 years?

The Twins pitching had nearly to lowest rate of ground balls at 40%. How would that impact team defensive metrics? The one team below them by ground ball/fly ball rate was the Mariners. The Mariners also had better DRS numbers in the outfield than the infield. Are you certain there is something significant to fix?

Julien’s arm is the issue and may limit him to 1B/DH. According to the Athletic he tends to double clutch on every throw. There are questions about whether he could play a passable second base. Maybe that can be fixed and he did play 3B in college. He has a lot of work to do in AAA this year.

He would help when healthy. Is the back injury still a concern? He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 with that injury. He didn’t go on IL last September but missed a week with back trouble in September. He did return to finish the season. The injury that knocked him out for over three months in 2022 was a high ankle sprain. Back and ankle injuries can return. If they sign him to a three year contract they should expect that he will miss significant time in two of those seasons and build a roster to account for his injury history. They probably still need someone like Kepler in reserve.

I would not consider extending Gray in the three year range. He is very likely to decline by age 35. He has more trade value at the deadline with an expiring contract. If he has a good year the Twins can make a qualifying offer and end up with a one year deal or a pick in the draft. We haven’t even started the three year part. He could get a significant injury this year after signing an extension. Gray just doesn’t have enough space to decline and remain a good option to start a playoff game. Extending Gray comes with much more risk than reward.