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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward. Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. They both perform better against left handed pitching over their careers but Vazquez has seen very little left handed pitching this year. I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.
  2. jorgenswest
    Way too early to believe slash stats have meaning for the future. I don’t believe they will be sacrificing very much offense by going forward with Vazquez.
  3. jorgenswest
    Slash stats aren’t very useful in season. They need such a large sample. I would hope they wouldn’t look to in season slash stats to make decisions. The have pitch level data and batted ball data that stabilizes much faster and can project performance better than previous slash stats. Based on the pitch and batted ball level data I am not too concerned about Nick Gordon. I am also not too encouraged by Ryan Jeffers thus far. I try to ignore the slash stats.
  4. jorgenswest
    Fans of several other teams might be wondering the same thing. The average OPS in the IL is nearly 800. Teams are scoring 5-6 runs per game. The average pitcher ERA is 5. The run scoring context is very different.
  5. jorgenswest
    Do you think it might be wise to get him at least 100 plate appearances in this reset before being worried about room? Slash stats will still be meaningless at that sample (100 PAs) but they can look at strike out rate. They will also assessing how he is handling AAA breaking balls. Entering this year Larnach has limited experience at AAA and he has not performed well there. He needs to dominate there over an extended weird of time.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins lost on this trade. I would take the same risk this July. My guess it might take something like 5 and then 15 in a two year contract to Mahle. I don’t think I would do that deal but it isn’t a clear “no” to me.
  7. jorgenswest
    Farmer isn’t a solution as an everyday player. Castro isn’t a solution as the left handed half of the platoon as he has better career numbers as a right handed batter. The only solution is Miranda. Maybe a trip to AAA can help him reset. I would stick with him here though and let him work it out at this level.
  8. jorgenswest
    Lewis will go through rough times and the same conversation will be had about him. Lee will too. I think Miranda is worthy of investing 1500 at bats. If they want to send him down for a time when Farmer is ready that might help him reset but he really has proven himself at AAA. He needs time to work through this struggle.
  9. jorgenswest
    The deal would still have been made if they wanted to keep Rooker. He made the 40 man roster numbers work and likely would have been DFA’d by the Twins if kept. Ultimately the Twins chose Garlick over Rooker. Rooker is proving them wrong this far this season.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am not sure if any of these are close to stabilizing, strikeout rate would stabilize earliest and possibly meaningful. The batted ball data from statcast stabilizes with fewer plate appearances. Gordon’s xBA and xSLG are 255 and 405 based on the number and quality of balls put in play this year.
  11. jorgenswest
    Are we watching the same player? He is among the team leaders is hard hit rate and barrels rate. He is a very good defender. His walks are down but even with the poor walk rate his OPS is better than Larnach’s. I don’t know what is coming in May but up until today he appears to be one of the more valuable Twins and I am encouraged by the increases in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity.
  12. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a middle reliever. They need another effective reliever and probably two. Four reliable relievers isn’t enough. Someone needs to join that group.
  13. jorgenswest
    Without off days and entering the Yankee series I don’t think they can afford to push back Maeda’s start. They should IL him and go with Ober until Maeda can come back. They will need that additional arm from St. Paul.
  14. jorgenswest
    Larnach has had very little AAA time and has done very poorly (195/311/310) at that level. Was he rushed? Would he have seen a lot more off speed offerings had he played AAA until he found success? Would he be more fundamentally sound? The majors isn’t the place to teach fundamentals. It is about coming up fundamentally sound and adjusting to the speed of the game.
  15. jorgenswest
    Maeda should go to IL and then a rehab assignment. Give Ober or Varland the opportunity to get a spot in the rotation and not give it back. Though this wasn’t related to Maeda’s arm it is an opportunity to give him some more time with the arm also. A healthy Maeda will be an asset to this staff. The myth that somehow they can hide Pagán in a low leverage role was busted today if there was really anyone who believed that role exists. I do believe there is value in a 13th spot flex role with Sands and now Headrick. That role is an opportunity there to impress and move up the ladder as Jax did last year. Someone needs to step up in that role and claim Pagán’s spot.
  16. jorgenswest
    Any trade of a reliever for a starting pitcher that finishes 2nd in the Cy Young voting for you is a win. Who would say no to that trade?
  17. jorgenswest
    Julien’s arm action will cost some outs. They will miss out on some double plays and close plays at first base. I am not sure it gets much better in AAA though repetition and foot work in the position can help. That kind of work would be easier to do in AAA. If he can show his bat will make up for those lost outs he needs to stay. He has a window to show his bat belongs at the top of a major league line up. It is up to him. It seems a real stretch to think that Brooks Lee was least aggressive. He is 22 with virtually no time at AA. How many drafted last year are above his level? If that is the best you found then the Twins were very aggressive in their promotions this year.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think this is a pretty good use of that last pitching spot. Rotate Sands out and bring up Varland to pitch on his day. Ease Maeda back in. Fill in with another pitcher in that 13th spot until Winder is ready or Sands comes back. The pitcher in that 13th spot isn’t as critical as the flexibility.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins traded team control of Pressly for the remainder of the lost 2018 and the 2019 season where they ended up spending resources on relievers like Parker, Romo and Dyson. Keeping Pressly would have given them an elite reliever and allowed them to allocate those resources to other areas of need. His loss hurt. They need that great season from Alcala or Celestino to call it an even trade. They do not need to match anything beyond those years of control. It really just that one season and the bar is a high one.
  20. jorgenswest
    My vote would be a long enough stay until he is playing a passable level at 2B. If his bat isn’t ready yet it will be before his glove.
  21. jorgenswest
    Depth is important. If at some point everyone is healthy a few major league ready players with be in AAA on options. It won’t be long before they are needed. Last year the ink wasn’t dry on Miranda’s option to AAA before Lewis was injured and Miranda was back with the Twins.
  22. jorgenswest
    It happened multiple times last year. He faced the number 3 hitter a third time in most starts and some he gave up more than 4 runs. There was a Yankee game he only made it 19 batters but he had thrown 90 pitches. His first start of the season after the shortened spring was 19 batters and lower pitch count. The same for his first start following his absence for COVID. there was an Angel game in his second to last start where he threw only 69 pitches in 4 innings of three run ball. That might be your best example but at this point the Twins were out of contention and had a bigger pen. This persistent narrative about Baldelli and third time through isn’t supported by his use of Ryan last year. It isn’t supported by Gray either when you look at his shorts starts clustered around his three IL trips and the start of the season. You could argue that he should have had more confidence in Smeltzer, Archer and Bundy.
  23. jorgenswest
    Is there a team that doesn’t use the 13th spot to rotate pitchers through? The need for a long reliever is so unpredictable that teams no longer carry a long reliever but instead use AAA. It makes sense. A long reliever isn’t getting regular work and once used isn’t available the next few days. Cole Sands makes it 6 candidates and the first to have the opportunity of the 13th pitcher to move off the shuttle. Jax took that opportunity last year and earned a key role in the pen. Which of these 6 do you think will take advantage of the opportunity and earn a regular role in this year’s pen?
  24. jorgenswest
    I agree and would add when healthy. His first start was due to the short spring. He left injured in his second start. Once he returned starts 3 and 4 were short as he built up. Starts 5-7 went at least 6. Trip 2 to IL. Two starts to build up and then a 7 inning start. They were more cautious after the second trip to IL and we’re pulling him around 80 pitches eventually building to 90. If he pitched well he was getting through 6 in 90. They may have been overly cautious in the build up but he wasn’t pulled due to analytics. Two trips to the IL was the larger factor. In September he won two consecutive starts while facing 25 batters in each only to be followed by trip 3 to the IL in the next start.
  25. jorgenswest
    If there is a difference it won’t be a change in philosophy. It will be a change in conditions. Consider the top 5 pitchers in starts from last year. Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer are gone. Sonny Gray was on the IL three times. They had one healthy mid rotation pitcher last year in Joe Ryan. He typically saw the top of line up a third time through. The other two (Ober and Winder) with double digits starts came with a history of injuries and limited innings in a season. Baldelli will let good healthy pitchers see the line up a third time through and go deeper. How often did he have that opportunity last year? Hopefully that opportunity occurs a lot more this year.
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