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Nashvilletwin

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  1. Assumptions: 1. Twins understand who they are: a mid market team that went all in over the past two seasons and failed (both financially and in the standings). 2. Ownership and the FO know that they don’t have the pitching talent or currently the $ necessary to solve the pitching, particularly with Buxton being resigned. 3. The team’s roster of promising young players, both in the field and on the mound, will need to be developed in 2022 in order to develop the talent and financial space to open a new window for 2023-2025. 4. Buxton is resigned. That’s a must. So with Donaldson, Kepler and Sano still on the team, there is not enough $ to go top end on a FA SS or SP. That’s the reality. So the question for those three players is who is going to be on the 2023 roster? The assignment was opening day lineup in 2022 - I’ll give you end of year as well. C - Garvers, Jeffers (and Rortvedt). Two are always on the team, but all three are needed through the year. All three are around at the end of the year (but one of them, most likely Garver, could be moved at the deadline). 1B - Kiriloff. Starting and ending. 2B - Polanco. Starting and ending. SS - FA. Lewis is not ready and the depth in the FA market is too good to pass up for solving the SS market for three years. 3B - Arraez/Miranda. Donaldson is moved. We won’t get all the $ back, but it’s a sunk cost anyway. His trade value will not be any higher than over the off-season based on his strong September. Arraez starts the year and Miranda gets the call early in the year at some point. DH - Sano. He gets another year to prove he can hit .240, 40 dingers, and 100 RBIs. INF Util - Gordon. In reality, Arraez, Gordon Polanco and Miranda all are available to play multiple INF positions (with Arraez and Gordon also available for the OF) based on injuries, rest, and in game strategy/decisions. LF - Larnach/Martin. Larnach starts in LF but the goes to RF. See below. CF - Buxton. This has to happen. RF - Kepler/Larnach. Kepler gets the start but is moved by the TD (to make room for Martin, create $, and receive quality and controllable BP help or minor league SP in return). OF Util - Celestino. He is defensively very strong and can play CF when BB gets hurt. By the end of 2022, this lineup of 13 position players is balanced in terms of defense, offense, youth, veterans, flexibility and pay. It will be ready to compete in 2023. As an aside, I’m not sure Rocco is the guy to lead this team given its relative youth and the importance of the ongoing development of the younger players.
  2. That Twins’ loss today was as typical as the Vikings’ loss on Sunday. Game in hand, a close call that should never have been needed in the first place goes against us, and the oh so predictable loss (and the as predictable bellyaching about the umps/refs) follows. Sad.
  3. Another great example of why Rocco is probably not the right guy to coach this club in the future. With this team likely getting much younger and filled with more prospects transitioning into true big leaguers, fundamentals trump analytics.
  4. Donaldson is a much bigger millstone around our necks with the multi year deal. At least with Simmons it’s one and done at less than half the annual cost as Donaldson.
  5. At the moment a 2022 SP lineup of Ober, Ryan, Gant, Dobnak and Jax (I have not given up on Jax as #5 at the back of the rotation) would run us about $6MM. We have at least a handful of additional young starters able to be part of the rotation as needed. Give them innings and put the cash into building a shutdown pen. That’s how a small/mid market team like the Twins can best compete in the modern game.
  6. Couldn’t agree more with this post and mikelink45. As a small/mid market team, we need to look for windows. Ours could open again in ‘23. In this era, having a staff with 3-4 cheap SPs who can deliver 5-6 ips and 3 ers or so (i.e. era 4.50-5.00) augmented by a shutdown pen is a good strategy, particularly for lower budget teams. Save the bucks on starters and commit more $ to the pen. By ‘23 we should be able to identify a strong stable of young, league minimum, controllable SPs out of our many options. Maybe one or two develop into legit #2s. But it might not matter if four of them are legit #3-4s. Then bring in a veteran leader (Berrios?) if necessary/desired. But in all cases, have a shutdown pen. Two asides: 1. Resign Buxton. 2. Is Rocco the right guy to lead/develop these young players? Given the horrendous lack of fundamentals displayed by this team this year, it’s a legit question.
  7. Donaldson will tweak a hammy any time now. He’s due. Slot Miranda right in at 3B. Trader Josh in the off season unless we want a $24MM dh. Take what you can get - salary relief would work.
  8. Agree 100%. The big stars call the shots - they won’t give up any $ so the little guys on a whole make more.
  9. Of course it should be higher. RISP means better pitches. Arraez’s is 16 points higher (.333 vs. .317). Still zero dingers and 25 ribbies for $23MM? That’s a fail. With two years left now. The signing didn’t work out. Its ok - it happens. I liked it when it was announced. It was a good bold move by the FO and ownership. But the FO should consider it now a sunk cost and move on in the off-season. Donaldson is not a part of the future and should not impede the progress of any player who could be.
  10. A couple of interesting tidbits from last night’s broadcast: 1. Entering the game the Twins have committed 85 errors - most in the majors and responsible for giving up the third most unearned runs. Simmons, our best fielder, is having his worst defender year and Sano, despite being benched at 1B for Kiriloff for much of the year. has committed more errors than our SSs combined. 2. Sano leads the team in bases loaded at bats with 18. He has two hits (a single and a grand slam) and NINE k’s. 3. With RISP, Donaldson is hitting .260 with 0 homers and 25 RBIs. Just a reminder - Donaldson, Sano and Sano will make over $44MM this season.
  11. That’s actually a really good point. The Twins have committed the most errors this season and have given up the third most unearned runs. (Couple that with our mid 5s era and it’s easy to see why we stunk up the joint this year) Its a completely legitimate question to ask if Rocco is the right guy to drive the ongoing development of a team consisting mostly if young players.
  12. I like our pipeline - solid but probably not full of projectable all stars. I see three position player starters on this list hopefully by 2023: Lewis (ss), Martin (rf) and Miranda (3b). Coupled with Kiriloff (1B) and Larnach (lf) that could be five starters in the field. Rooker, Gordon, and Celestino are possible bench players. Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt are behind the plate. Sign Buxton, keep Arraez and Polanco and there are 14 solid position players with only two making more than essentially league minimum. There are at least a dozen legitimate potential SPs (including Ober and Jax) on the list - we should be able to get at least four of them to give us 5-6 innings of 3 runs or less 75% of the time (i.e. solid #3-4s). A couple more will probably end up in the pen. We’d clearly have the cash to add at least a solid #2 SP type, a shut down pen, and maybe a FA position player in case of injury or non development. That team could win. The Twins FO are positioning us to pursue the classic mid market strategy to make a run. I’m a fan of our future (assuming we resign Buxton).
  13. Jax and Ober may not be the second comings, but I’ll take any league minimum starter who can go 5-6 innings and give up 3 or less earned runs three out of every four starts. If we had four guys like that, we’d be in great shape.
  14. I disagree. Among those 12 names there is potential for several (4-5 at least) to be #2-4s in time. In this day and age a solid #3 gives you 5-6 innings and 3 earned runs. A lot of names on that group can give us that. Give them time to gestate next year. I hope a handful of them though get at least 5–10 starts in the bigs next year.
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