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Nashvilletwin

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  1. Nashvilletwin
    1. Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs. No one in their right mind except the evil judge or Max Mercy would trade Roy Hobbs. 2. Royce Lewis = potentially the Twins’ Derek Jeter. Who would trade Derek Jeter? 3. Brooks Lee - by the end of ‘24 he will be a better hitting and defensive shortstop than our $30MM+/year incumbent at less than 1/30th of the cost. Can you imagine his value then? His value is about to skyrocket. He stays - certainly for now and hopefully for a decade. 4. Pablo Lopez - this FO’s best trade and sign deal ever - no other comes close. No chance he is traded: the FO needs something to keep reminding us how smart they are, 5. Ryan Jeffers - a solid hitting, improving defensively young catcher at a great cost. That’s absolute gold. He is going nowhere. 6, Johan Duran - see Jeffers above except replace catcher with closer.
  2.    glunn reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  3.    TopGunn#22 reacted to a post in a topic: Buyer Beware: Ranking the Twins’ Worst Contracts
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s remove Dobnak from the discussion and focus on the other three. When those three deals were signed, it fair to say they were reasonable, if not attractive, to the Twins (both financially and strategically, i.e. some players might be worth more to some teams for whatever reasons). However, that’s not the point of this article. The point is where are those three contracts today. Each probably retains some “strategic” value to the Twins, albeit less than when signed. Financially? Well, there is a fairly efficient market for talent in MLB. What would the “market” say about each of these three today, right now? Could each be signed for more or less over remaining years of their respective contracts? That’s the point of the article. Lots of comments today rightly point out that there is still time left on these deals and performances could rebound. Fair. But those possibilities would be built into the current “market” price. So is the current market price higher or lower for those three deals? It appears the point of the article is that, for the Twins, these three would be the most under water versus current market prices. That’s not unreasonable. The good news, of course, it’s we probably only have three of these and, yes, performance may rebound. Right? Need to look no further than Kepler - he looks like a steal today and six months ago that certainly was not the case.
  5.    Daniel Blegen reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  6.    Heiny reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  7.    Mike Sixel reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  8.    USNMCPO reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  9.    JK45 reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  10.    darwin22 reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  11.    MN_ExPat reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  12.    Blyleven2011 reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?
  13. Nashvilletwin
    1. In ‘25 and for the following four years, Lee will be better defensively and offensively at SS than Correa at less than 1/30th the cost. 2. The Twins for the second half of this decade will be built around Lewis, Jenkins, Lee and, possibly, Jeffers. Those are four superior bats with average to above average fielding - with three of them playing up the middle. Each of those players could be multiple times all stars from ‘25-‘30. 3. Lee has the pedigree, experience, and bat to ball skills (as a switch hitter nonetheless) which points to an incredibly high floor. 4. The Twins have several other young shortstop/infielder prospects who will grow in value over the next couple of years but still do not have Lee’s upside. Trade them (although I envision Miller playing the incredibly important and underrated stud defensive utilty infielder role on several championship contending Twins teams later this decade). Botton line: Keep Lee as a key piece setting ourselves up for a multi year true open window.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Also, in 12 months, Lee will be a better offensive and defensive SS than Correa at 1/30th cost for the following five years. That’s the equivalent of having an outstanding young QB on a rookie contract.
  15.    Nashvilletwin reacted to a post in a topic: The Twins Face Tough Decisions To Make Impactful Trades
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Excellent comments on this thread.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    1. The Twins’ success in 2023 was driven by having two top starters. For 2024, Paddack cannot be assumed to fill one of those roles at this point. A solid #2 is the biggest hole in this lineup. 2. The Twins will reduce payroll. Solving point #1 above cannot be done without moving top prospects or generating available cash by moving at least one expensive vet. Assuming the FA cost of a true #2 is about $20-25MM and the target team salary budget is $135MM, Twins would need to cut about $10MM. 3. In a payroll cutting environment, expected production/value per $ spent becomes a highly relevant metric. 4, Kepler, Polanco and Vasquez each make about the same -$10MM. 5. Which of those three players should we move to open up the necessary $s? Purely on a production/$ basis, as well as the ability to sign a cheap veteran backup if necessary, isn’t Vasquez the logical choice? Put another way, if you could have a Sonny Gray type plus two of those three players, which two players have the highest floors and greatest upside? 6. As an aside, I’d move both Vasquez and Polanco and reinvest both of their salaries in starting pitching.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Hmm, an infielder and a corner bat? We have both of those - and good ones - in Polanco and Kepler. What could we get back for either or both? I still think we want to keep Kepler, but his price will probably never be higher.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more. And if need be, move Vázquez for another $10MM in savings (the savings would be enough - don’t need much in terms of prospects returned). Take the $35MM and resign both Gray and Maeda to 2 year deals. Bump payroll to the top limit of $140MM if required. Within that two year period our next batch of promising (and cheap) starters should be ready and cash will be available for possible extensions (Ryan, Paddack, Ober and others). With cutting payroll this season, production per $ spent is incredibly important. We have five high cost position players: Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, and Vasquez. Correa and Buxton aren’t going anywhere and Kepler (high production second half Kepler) plays a position of relative weak depth at the moment. Polanco and Vasquez’s production are most cost effectively easily replaced. Both have two years of control and won’t/shouldn’t be here next year anyway. Those two (in that order) make the most sense to move for FA starting pitching.
  20.    Nashvilletwin reacted to a post in a topic: Should the Twins Swap Infield Depth for an Ace?
  21. Nashvilletwin
    None of these five are getting traded. Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs. No one is trading away Roy Hobbs. Royce Lewis = the Twins’ Derek Jeter (except Royce plays 3rd). No one is trading away our Derek Jeter. Pablo Lopez - no chance the FO trades the best trade (and sign) they ever made by a mile in their careers. Brooks Lee - no chance we trade a solid decade of plus fielding and hitting from this sure fire (and cheap) prospect. Not quite the next Jeter, but could be awfully close. In ‘25 he will be better (i.e. outhit and outfield) than Correa and $32MM cheaper. Joe Ryan - as mentioned in previous posts, this team, especially this year, does not trade away controllable quality, innings eating starting pitching. Cory is correct - our most likely valuable trade asset (excluding Kepler and Polanco) is realistically Julien.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly - the FO protected the players that made the most sense and now they have room to manoeuvre and add a few players.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but no thanks. We are long 27 year oldish types who haven’t really made it, strike out a lot, and have injury histories (Miranda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon, etc.). Sure his glove is probably an upgrade over our other current rostered CF options (Martin, Castro. Gordon) except Buxton (dreaming), but his bat surely is not. Why give the Astros a couple of promising arms for that? Not a fan of that deal.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Tender them all. Trade Polanco. Now we are at $110MM. Top of the range budget is $140MM. Use $30MM on starting pitching. Your 13 position players are: Starters (9): Lewis (3B, R), Correa (SS, R), Julien (2B, L), Kiriloff (1B, L), Jeffers (C, R), Wallner (LF, L), Castro, (CF, S), Kepler (RF, L), Buxton (DH, R). Bench (4): Vasquez (C, R), Farmer (IF, R), and two of the following three: Gordon (OF/IF, L), Martin (OF/IF, R) and Larnach (COF, L). If Buxton plays some CF, then all the better, But if not, Castro, Gordon and Martin can cover (in fact, Gordon and Martin could theoretically platoon against lefties and righties if Castro has to cover an infield position). If the $30MM is spent properly on starting pitching, this lineup, healthy, would be projected to win the division and compete for the AL pennant. This is certainly one strategy.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Gordon’s injury last season was incredibly disappointing after his spark plug season in 2022. Let’s remember his great play through August and into September that season was instrumental in keeping us in the race. Assuming the Twins carry 13 position players on Opening Day and Buxton is the titular DH and Vasquez is the backup catcher, that leaves four spots available for Gordon: starting CF or one of three utility spots. Could he be the starting CF? Probably not. But what if he platooned in that role with the right handed hitting Martin? Castro and Farmer are then your other two bench players. Theoretically, all four of those players - plus Jeffers on days he’s not catching - could be used in the DH role when Buxton needs a break. Hmmm. Cheap solution too. But he (or Martin) would still have to beat out Larnach (assuming Wallner and Kepler are our starting corner outfielders). So, yeah, at the moment before any trades, it seems like Larnach, Martin and Gordon are battling for two bench spots. I’ve written way sillier things on the TD……..
  26. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - one of Gordon or Castro and one of Farmer or Polanco are still with the organization on Opening Day. If I were a betting man, I’d say Farmer (with his ability to play short and $4MM less in salary) stays and Polanco (who with his extra year of control, switch hitting and overall infield versatility means his trade value may be higher) is dealt. If Lee has a good start to the year, Farmer could then be dealt by the deadline. Likewise, Castro probably has the edge on Gordon. But, assuming Castro is kept (which he deserves to be), then Gordon, Larnach and presumably Martin will be battling for two of the final four bench spots (Farmer and Vasquez have the other two). So there still is a path for Gordon, particularly if no new CFer is signed. Boy, I like all four of those players though - and I really like all four at their projected arb $’s.
  27.    Nashvilletwin reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Make Arbitration Decisions; Moran, Henriquez Non-Tendered (Updated Article)
  28.    Nashvilletwin reacted to a post in a topic: Twins Make Arbitration Decisions; Moran, Henriquez Non-Tendered (Updated Article)
  29. Nashvilletwin
    100% correct - I stupidly forgot Lewis. Edited above. Thank you.
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