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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. That actually may not be too different than our 2023 lineup. Agree with the cjm that Sabato could be in the DH spot by 2025. Rortvedt will hopefully be around and doing up to 1/2 the catching. He’s very good and our catching should be set for years behind Jeffers and Rortvedt. My big question mark is SS. Nothing would make me happier than to see Lewis there. But I think the jury is still out as to his defensive skill base. I could see us looking for a different solution and then Lewis mans RF. A four man outfield of Martin, Buxton, Lewis and Larnach (with Larnach providing a left handed DH option as well) could be a winning combo for years. Another great attribute of this lineup is the cost. Between ‘23 and ‘25, only Buxton, Polanco and Sano cost very much (excluding extensions and what we do at SS). That entire lineup, even with bench players Rortvedt, Arraez, and some combo of Gordon, Celestino, Rooker, etc. would probably run less than $50MM per annum. That leaves plenty to build the pitching staff, particularly with one top end FA or trade starter and, of course, a shut down pen. I'm not fretting about ‘22. In fact I will be judging the year on how our young talent develops. But I’m sure getting excited about the window that will start to open in ‘23.
  2. Step 1 is now done. With a healthy BB we will have an open window for seven years. Now let’s solve our Step 2: long term SS. If we have to move JD to get it done financially, so be it. Twins will be incredible up the middle for at least half a decade. If we get those two done, we have the young players both in the field and on the bump (in terms of both talent and cost) to be a strong contender, most likely starting in 2023.
  3. Sure, we like the player, but it is not happening unless an extension is included or we send a player back to the A’s who is absolutely not part of our ‘23 and beyond plan and, ideally, dumps salary. So, if we sent JD to the A’s with a bunch of his salary, then maybe. (Of course, the A’s will not want him). Otherwise, this FO is not trading for a one year rental this off season. Moves like this happen when the team is a player or two away and the window is open. That is not now.
  4. Agree with JR. The jury is still out on Lewis (or Martin) as an everyday MLB shortstop. If BB is not resigned (heaven forbid) Lewis is likely our CF of the future. If BB is resigned, Lewis, Martin and Larnach are our corner outfielders of the future with Lewis able to play CF when BB is on IR. By 2023, this should be a strong cadre of four outfielders with an attractive mix of speed, power, and OBA. Also, all four would be under long term control and thee would essentially be at league minimum. So let’s go get a 5 yr plus solution at SS out of the current FA crop. If not, Taylor is a preferred target.
  5. I know I’m in the minority again, but this FO does not sign 7 year deals for SPs, especially for close to $20MM/yr. Sorry, that’s just the reality - it’s just not happening. And I’m not upset about it. We will see how well Jose does over those seven years. What’s the over/under on his ERA from ‘23 onward? 4+? I’ll take developing our staff and the savings to redeploy annually to build a pen. I just don’t think the cost benefit analysis supports a 7 yr. $20MM SP who can only get through the order more than twice about 25% if the time. I’m addition, I’m betting right now Martin is a legit corner outfielder or super utility player for us for many years at basically league minimum. We will see on SWR too. This team going forward, until a window clearly opens, is primarily about developing controllable SP assets on the cheap. Don’t ding the Pohlads. When the window looked open they have spent. They are solid owners (they did right by the entire organization through Covid). Now let’s resign BB and trade JD so we can sign a long term SS solution. I’m very positive in this team’s prospects for building toward a new window in ‘23 and beyond. Good for Jose. He’s set for life. Well done.
  6. I’m in the minority too. I think we can find other pitchers, most of whom are in our system now, who can deliver about a 4.75 era for less than 5yrs/$80MM. These other SPs will be ascending in their careers, and not leave us on the hook for $$$ if they don’t pan out or hit the skids after a year or two. I understand the fear looking at the rotation right now. But that $16MM/yr for five years can go a lot further on a relative value add basis than signing a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality and age. The Twins, IMO, are not going in that direction with the SP staff this year despite what we all write here.
  7. The ultimate strategy won’t be as dire or radical as some of us are describing on this thread, but it will be significantly in that direction. A couple of observations: 1. We are a small to mid market team. The good news is we are blessed with owners who will pay at the upper end of the range of those teams, especially if a window seems open. 2. In conjunction with trends in the modern MLB, our coaching staff does not support long starter outings. Instead, they prefer a two time through the order approach. 3. We do not have the capital or risk appetite to go “all in” on high end FA SPs - certainly not where we are in our current fairly closed window and given #1 and #2 above. 4. We actually have a decent cadre of young starter talent ready to test their mettle at the Show level. 5. The FO and coaching staff subscribe to the Bomba strategy of looking to score lots of runs and there are no signs they are looking to abandon that. So, what’s the right, sensible strategy then? You build a starting staff full of low cost, controllable assets that seek to pitch five IPs per start. The goal is to have each of these starters have an ERA of between 4 and 5. So our starters work half the game or so giving up 2-3 earned runs per start. You then augment your staff with a lights out bullpen that can hold your opponent to no more than a run or two per game. Such a bullpen can be used much more situationally and be built at a much less cost than investing in high end starters. The overall cost savings then can be applied to building your starting eight for hitting and defense. The goal is to win a lot of games by scoring more than 4 runs. When the window is clearly open, you then can splurge on a true #1 or #2 if need be - who knows, there is a decent chance one or two of our youngsters will develop into that role anyway and it won’t cost $25MM/year. Not only is this the approach the I think the Twins will take, but I also think it’s the right one.
  8. Yes, the jury is still out on Lewis (or Martin) as an everyday SS. It’s much more likely that they project as plus corner outfielders with Buxton in center. If Buxton leaves (heaven forbid) or gets injured, then, of course, Lewis can slot in at CF. Better to find a 5 year solution (as sagely posted above) as a true SS now. If we have to move our declining asset at 3B or give up our pipe dreams of a #1 SP to do it, so be it. At the moment I’d take a long term deal plus SS and Miranda at 3B as we look to build a new window than Josh, an expensive temp at SS and the hope (of hype) of Lewis or Martin as a plus SS in ‘23 and beyond. Really, not even close.
  9. Respectfully, you gamble on a player like this when you think it will get you over the hump. Sorry to break it to all of us: our beloved Twins are not in that position for ‘22. It is much more likely if we have a successful campaign next year and feel the window is opening that we splurge on a top end starter. Who knows - maybe even Berrios comes back. This off-season we are much more likely to sign one or two #3 types (Big Mike, Rodriguez, etc.) on a one (with an option) or two year deal. We then see what our youngsters have next year. We might not even need to splurge in ‘23 but instead just build a lights out pen (probably get three or four really strong relievers for one #2 equivalent starters).
  10. I appreciate the sentiments to keep Josh. However, they seem to be predicated upon the notion that the Twins are in a position to contend in 2022. That just doesn’t seem realistic to me - even assuming the FO is willing to stay around the $130MM payroll level. There are just too many holes to fill. Besides, there is a lot of young talent in the field and on the bump that need innings to develop. It could be best to just reinvest a bit for a year to get the benefit of a longer open window starting in 2023. A team in that situation needs to be long ascending assets. Josh, bless his heart, is a declining asset - who costs $50+MM to boot. So assuming we are rebuilding to some degree with an eye on really being able to contend in two years, would you rather have an aging out Josh at $51MM or utilize some or much of that cash to get a true SS in here (in a great year to find a FA) on a longer term deal and let Miranda grow into the role with Arraez? BTW, I’m clearly in the camp that neither Martin nor Lewis projects as our starting SS. They should be our starting LF and RF bracketing Buxton in 2023. So let’s get the SS now that would be the lynchpin up the middle for what should be our emerging window. Move Josh. If he’s as good as a lot of us TDers think he is, we might get more than we think for him (especially with the universal DH coming down the pike).
  11. A lot to like here. Excellent analysis and creative idea. A couple of things: 1. Neither Lewis nor Martin projects as a plus defensive SS. Ideally, they are your starting RF (Lewis) and LF (Martin) in 2023. Think about that combo on either side of BB for 3-5 years. 2. Therefore, this could be the year to fire up a longish term deal for a true SS. The best way to pay for that is to trade Josh and use his cash. JD is a declining asset on a team that will struggle to contend. A team like the ‘22 Twins needs more ascending assets. Any declining assets certainly can’t be making $23MM+. Let Miranda man 3B for most of next year and beyond - he’s the future. 3. Twins won’t spend that much on a #1SP in 2022. I’m just not sensing it. Redeploy that cash into a killer pen. Rocco doesn’t let any starter go past 5-6 IPs anyway. I like adding one or two #3 type SPs - but otherwise see what you’ve got in your youngsters than splurge on a #1 or #2 SP if needed in 2023 when the team is more likely to contend. But a killer pen will always keep you more than competitive. 4. I like the call on Kepler. Keep Sano at DH and Kiriloff at 1B. The starting OF next year on either side of BB is a bit dicey, but both Lewis and Martin need to see plenty of time there in the second half of ‘22 anyway. Thanks much, very fun read.
  12. So we head into 2022 with pretty much the same lineup as we ended the year? Maybe add a different #3 SP and/or a few relievers? That, my friends, is not a recipe for success. Neither Martin and Lewis go project as plus defensive SS. They do, however, project as outstanding corner outfielders. And that’s where they should be starting and playing every day in 2023 with Buxton I’m the middle. Move Donaldson and use the cash to invest in a long term deal with one of the leading FA SS
  13. Whoa Nelly! Actually, I just wanted to write that. Probably never heard that, huh. Love the creativity behind the plan. Like others have stated I’d be concerned about trading out known contributors for prospects. If we are going to kinda rebuild, I’d go in a different direction. But the heart of your plan is to swap out some salary and add a true #1SP, a #3SP, a top line SS, and a top RP. Those are excellent aspirations. All of those are needs. Thinking along your lines, but not going quite as far and assuming 2022 is bit of a transition, I think we stick with Buxton and use the capital from #1SP in your plan to pay for him. I’m thinking we still trade Josh and use that cash to get a long-term solution at SS. Martin and Lewis do not project as strong enough defensively at SS. Still add the #3SP and build the pen using Kepler. Then add the #1 or #2 SP in 2023 after you see what you’ve got in the up and comers. Here’s what I’m building toward in ‘23. 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco SS New player added this off season 3B Miranda LF Martin CF Buxton RF Lewis C Rortvedt DH Sano Bench - Arraez, Celestino, Larnach, Gordon, Jeffers SPs - Ober, Ryan, #3 signed this year, one or two of the young guys coming up, #1 or #2 signed next off season based on need. RPs - Build a killer pen. In the 5 inning SP world of modern MLB, it’s all about pen quality and depth. Don’t skimp here. This is a good mix of vets and youngsters, solid up the middle on D, plenty of power with good OBA, built for a multi year window, and, importantly, affordable.
  14. I get it 100%, but in this lineup, he’s not our every day 2B, SS, or 3B. Unless he’s moved, he should play and that would be the best spot. The proposed lineup though does afford good positional flexibility so he clearly could get at bats at different positions throughout the year.
  15. Great post. Except for Correa, all could be good additions. With our young rotation next year, having an elite pen is critical. Both relievers would slot right in and make us pretty much elite, even without TR back at full strength. Chris Taylor on a $2x10 would be ideal. Play him at SS in 2022. If Lewis shows up in 2023, he still is more than useful in our lineup at a corner OF or super utility position in 2023. Rodriguez is a bit like Big Mike - take you pick, probably room for both. We could probably get all four for a little more than the price of JD - so trade Josh. Then move Kepler and use those savings plus Cruz’s savings to resign Buxton. Resign Big Mike to a similar deal to what he just finished. Starters: 1B AK, 2B JP, 3B JM, SS Taylor, LF LA, CF BB, RF TL, C MG, DH MS. Bench: RJ, BRortvedt, NG, BRooker, GC (some combo of these active) Starters: Rodriguez, MP, BO, JR, plus one of Grant, Dobnak, and Jax (others are depth). Relievers: JA, TD, TR, CT, JM, DC, Hembree, and Tepera. With that elite pen, this lineup would a) be competitive in 2022, b) not cost too much more than current levels, and c) set the team up for solid growth and a more open window in 2023-4.
  16. You absolutely are on the right track. The one factor you might be overlooking is the cash aspect. Twins ownership has been great over the past several years - essentially going all in from 2019-2021 in an attempt to gain the WS. They’ve likely lost over $100MM since the pandemic began. We should not expect, nor demand, that they replicate that strategy given the current state of the roster. So, with that in mind: 1) Yes, 100% top priority. 2) Not happening if a FA and unlikely to happen via a trade. 3) & 6) Yes, at least two, maybe three, elite BP arms will be needed to support our young rotation, ideally one is late inning reliable. 4) Yes, as Lewis realistically might not be fully ready until well into 2023 and no one else in the organization projects as a pure SS at the moment (we wish Austin Martin did, but he doesn’t). 5) Yes to Big Mike. 7) Yes, 100% - Josh for sure, and maybe Max too, to help pay for it all. Those two together (and I think we could get close to full value for Josh) plus Nelson Cruz are over $40MM. That should pay for Buxton, a SS and at least two top quality relievers. So I essentially agree on everything except the top of the rotation FA or acquisition. If we could get that done “economically” (i.e. in cash or trade capital) then you have nailed the post season plan.
  17. Ted, good list but you left off Josh. He’s the number #1 person I’d move. I get that he actually had a pretty good year - particularly in the late 2nd half when the season was already lost. He’s a good, actually very good, baseball player both at the plate and in the field if healthy (which has been fairly unreliable). He’s a veteran presence as well (but has that really translated in the dugout and the clubhouse though?). He very well may be worth his $20+MM. But not to us - not at this time. Josh is a declining asset taking up valuable cash and real estate on a mid market team that has lost lots of money over the past couple of years and has a strong emerging player ready to take his spot. Signing him was a great bet at the time. It made tremendous sense for a team willing to go all in. But that window has passed. Let me repeat that for all of us fans who think 2021 was just some sort of an aberration. That window has passed. The Twins exiting 2021 are not in the same position as the Twins heading into 2019. Josh’s late season play will contribute to getting a better deal for him from a team looking for that key piece. Even more likely if the NL adopts the DH. If all the analytics guys on this site are correct, then there should be takers at full value for Josh’s WAR. Resigning Buxton, signing a SS, and adding pitching (targeting the BP and maybe Big Mike) are simply better uses of that cash at this point in time for the Twins. Give Miranda and Luis the 3B innings and turn over the veteran leadership to Buxton. BTW, I’d move Kepler as well……
  18. Ted - I think you nailed all the issues. I’ll go first. The 2022 Twins are a going to be about the future - not the present. The team is not likely to be in the position to realistically compete given the projected staff and ownership’s probable (and justifiable) reluctance to go all in again (particularly after possibly losing a boatload of cash over the past two years). Consequently, Josh should be moved for whatever salary relief we can get. I liked the move when we signed him, but the window that made that deal a decent bet has closed. Use the savings to redeploy into singing Buxton, a new SS and pitching (I’d add Kepler to the move list too with the same target use of proceeds) Miranda plays 3B, Polanco 2B, Kiriloff 1B and Sano is DH. Luis plays LF and Larnach is RF. The new SS and Buxton provide strong defensive chops up the middle. Resign Pineda (to a lumber deal between a 2x4 and 2x6). Let the young guys start and build a shutdown pen. That team could play competitive ball, be within realistic payroll expectations, and build for the start of a new window in 2023.
  19. Simple - Sano stays another year. The hope is 0.240, 35 dingers, and 100 RBIs serving primarily as the DH. If he does that he will stick around in 2023 with his $14MM deal. Actually he’s in a great spot to earn that last year by playing well next year. Really a win-win situation for both club and player next year.
  20. Another example tonight of how a mid market team can compete : a league minimum pitcher gets through five in good shape and hands over the reins to a shutdown pen - btw, beating the guy who wants $30MM/year. An entire staff like this will cost a team no more than 1-1.5 Berrios’s. With the continuing trend of longer at bats and shorter pitch counts, more winning teams will have a deep, reliable and relatively cheaper (compared to starters) pen. This will be the Twins strategy over the next two years.
  21. Gant starts with Ober and Ryan (alongside possibly one or both of Dobnak and Jax). Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala stay Up to five free agents or trades - at least three of whom should be considered better than those four. Don’t skimp on the pen. With a starting pitching rotation that will no doubt be made up of a number of youngsters, the pen is the key. No laying up on the pen.
  22. Poor fundamentals was a big part of this season’s downfall. They played like poop in the preseason and it continued right on into the regular season. Regardless if everything else goes right re injuries, decent starts, etc., it’s hard to win consistently if the team plays poor fundamentals baseball. IMO, that’s on Rocco and the staff. And, as the team probably will be getting younger going forward, I’m questioning if Rocco is the right manager to lead this team in 2022 and beyond.
  23. This is exactly the pitching model the Twins should pursue in 2022 and probably 2023. Namely, a five - six inning start of less than four runs by a controllable, league minimum or there abouts starter followed by a shut down pen (Colome not withstanding). It’s a good strategy for a mid market team in the modern game. We probably have at least four starters on the roster or on the system that fit that description. Who knows, one or two could even develop into a solid 6-7 inning #2 or #3 (ideally Ober and Ryan become that). We might even already have 3-4 relievers that could be part of that pen. The pen is the key.
  24. Trade Kepler and Donaldson in the off-season for as much salary relief as we can get and redeploy the $30MM into a lockdown pen. We’d win a lot more games.
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