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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The injury risks provides the opportunity for a mid/small market team to sign an elite player. I would take the risk.
  2. jorgenswest
    Let’s suppose they sign someone like Fulmer and need a spot on the 40. They DFA Enlow. Enlow has a chance to passed through waivers. If they know they will be filling Enlow’s spot on the 40 they can DFA him now when acquiring Ortega. Now when they sign someone like Fulmer they can DFA Ortega. He has a chance to make it through waivers also. I don’t think Ortega will be on the 40 to start the season. Enlow wouldn’t be either. The Twins will acquire a veteran for that spot on the 40 and both Enlow and Ortega will have had chances to pass though waivers from that spot.
  3. jorgenswest
    Fulmer may be the move. This isn’t about Enlow vs Ortega. It is about using that 40 man spot for a player like Fulmer. Making this move gives the Twins two chances to pass a player through waivers instead of one.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would really be surprised in Ortega is on the 40 at the start of spring training. It is quite common to sign a player and then try to pass him through waivers. The Twins know that they will be adding players and need Enlow’s spot. Why not make this move now? They have a chance that Enlow passes through waivers. Later this winter when they need that spot they will have a chance that Ortega passes through waivers.
  5. jorgenswest
    Was the TD list better that the MLB? How did they do with Gordon, Miranda, Rodriguez and Winder? Missing from the MLB list are Ober, Jax, Moran, Wells and Wade. Any others missing. Did TD do any better with them? What would a top 30 of that group look like today?
  6. jorgenswest
    If last winter you outlined the trade with the Rangers, the trade with the Yankees and the signing of Correa I think I would have thought it less likely.
  7. jorgenswest
    The reality is the data from the previous season does not provide a good projection for the next season. It is much more reliable to use multiple years particularly for a player at Wacha’s age and experience. Some don’t trust projections but anyone using last season’s data to support acquiring (or not) a player is projecting last season on the next. If you are going to project using more data (seasons) will give a better projection. Steamer projects Wacha for a 4.43 ERA next season. Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Mahle, Ober and even Varland are projected for better ERAs. The Twins certainly have their own projection which they trust more but should we trust it. Have they found success with these short term back of the rotation signings? I am all for adding a starter but acquire someone that slots in by Gray rather than between Varland and Woods-Richardson. Chris Sale would move everyone down a slot. They can pay the salary. Go after a pitcher like Sale.
  8. jorgenswest
    They might be but I don’t think Garver is a fit. I really think he needed that 2017 time in AAA to become a better defensive catcher.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to add a starter to the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot. If they can’t do that in trade then I would risk the younger pitchers in the bottom of the rotation over Wacha.
  10. jorgenswest
    Are we buying high? Projections are often based on three years. How do the three year comparisons look?
  11. jorgenswest
    Kepler has value to a team in need of a right fielder. I don’t think the Padres are a match. How about trading Ober and then sending Kepler to Rockies for Marquez?
  12. jorgenswest
    Two possible matches from BTV. One with a major leaguer and the other a prospect package. Bailey Ober straight up? Julien, Woods-Richardson and Canterino?
  13. jorgenswest
    I count Ryan. Cleveland’s initial pipeline was made up of players acquired in trade. Some like Ryan were not global top prospects.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree with anything you said. I simply think the injury risk created the opportunity to get an impact pitcher without needing to give up a global top prospect. I think that Correa comes with that same opportunity. It is a reasonable argument that the mid to small market Twins can’t afford to take these risks. I am on the other side. I would take the risk of signing Correa and if they are in first place at the deadline next year I would prefer the injury risk of the impact pitcher over a more reliable middle of the rotation pitcher.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think they knew the injury risk. If he were completely healthy they can’t get him without a global top 50 prospect. They didn’t even need to give up a global top 100. They took the risk in trying to get a starter at the top of the rotation and lost. They didn’t have the prospect capital to get Castillo and maybe should not have spent it if they did. After that I think it was better to trade for Mahle or Montas and risk the injury as opposed to a pitcher that is a borderline playoff starter. If the opportunity comes up again this summer I would take the higher risk on the injured player over more certainty of a number 3-4.
  16. jorgenswest
    I am having a hard time buying the narrative about acquiring injured players. On Mahle… Are we suggesting they trade for players with no injury history? Montas, Castillo and Mahle were the best starters moved at the deadline. All three had time in the IL. Mahle’s was recent but Montas also missed time in July. There were only 40 starters last year with at least 30 starts. Perhaps they should limit themselves to that group. Actually we need to make the group smaller. There are pitchers in that list that have have had Tommy John surgery or missed significant time in 2021. They are a risk of getting injured again. Eventually you get down to Gerrit Cole. Maybe they should trade for him. On the other hand sometimes it is the injury risk that makes that talented player available in the first place. Sign Correa. Expect he will miss time for injury. The reality is that missing time due to injury is the norm. It is the injury risk that makes Correa and his elite talent available to a small/mid market team like the Twins.
  17. jorgenswest
    Sorry about that. I read the two statements as one thought. I shouldn’t make those assumptions.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins have made many trades in the last year. I don’t think they would be in a group of teams afraid to lose trades. If they keep him it will be because they value his contribution over the return.
  19. jorgenswest
    Are there special qualifications for a first ballot Hall of Famer? What can a player possibly do between his first and second year to earn the vote? I do get that in your first year the ballot may be crowded with several worthy names and you don’t make it. That doesn’t seem to be the case next year. Mauer is either worthy of the Hall of Fame or not. Any voter who would vote for him the second year but leave an open spot on the ballot in the first should lose their privilege.
  20. jorgenswest
    If the medicals were completely clean would it be reasonable to expect a healthy 10 years on the investment? I wouldn’t think so. In a decade of play nearly everyone will have a significant injury or two. These medicals open the door for a team like the Twins to win this deal. Give him that contract. We don’t need 10 great years from it. We need a great year from Correa to coincide with a great year from Buxton where both are healthy for the playoffs.
  21. jorgenswest
    14 players had over 600 at bats. You did say closer though so make it 550 and you find 48 players. That is less than 2 players per team. I do believe Kepler will benefit more than most but many hitters will get a few more hits. He really needs some power to return. Did he lose it trying to beat the shift? I wonder if his failed attempt to change as a hitter and beat the shift took away what his strength as a hitter. He needs to go back to hitting the ball hard to the pull side. Maybe he will do that when the second baseman isn’t standing in right field. The reality is no one knows how batters will benefit and teams will adjust. Players like Kepler and Gallo seem like they would benefit the most. How much and who? Getting that right is a critical piece for every front office.
  22. jorgenswest
    Arraez batted first 91 times. Buxton led off 50 times. No one else more than 7. You could probably make the same comment about Buxton leading off for almost any other team.
  23. jorgenswest
    Maybe this is the opportunity for the Twins to sign an elite free agent long term. If there are no health concerns they can’t match the Giants or the Mets. It is a huge risk to sign him but could come with a huge payoff.
  24. jorgenswest
    A little more than 28% of the Twins plate appearances were against left handed pitching. The Twins faced a left handed starter in 49 of 162 games (a little over 30%). Devers trade value is about the same as Ryan and Duran. Over his career he is at best mediocre against left handed pitching. I think a right handed bat in the outfield is a better fit.
  25. jorgenswest
    Guillorme from the Mets is stuck behind Lindor and Correa. He gets on base and has shown an average glove. He also bats left handed in a platoon fit with Farmer. Intrigue is too strong but I would be more interested in Guillorme as a fit for the Twins.
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