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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I care about data. I don’t see a reliever projected to have an ERA under 4 on this roster. Read the write up that goes with their rank at number 8. It sums up well my concern. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/
  2. jorgenswest
    My guess https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/
  3. jorgenswest
    Of the 3.4 WAR projected for the bullpen Rogers accounted for 1.9. The next best was 0.4. When the bullpen relies on the health of one player I would call that thin. They replace Rogers with a reliever projected for 0.1 WAR. The new projection should put them in the bottom 10.
  4. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. Who are the go to relievers in high leverage situations? Seems like we have one less than we had yesterday. Seems like the bullpen was on the thin side yesterday.
  5. jorgenswest
    Should Duran be the closer?
  6. jorgenswest
    In his one season with the Rays he was a closer for a portion. He doesn’t pitch well with runners on base so coming into a clean inning probably helped. However has trouble with left handed batters so closing isn’t a good fit. I don’t think he is a helpful reliever and one year of control would be better than 2.
  7. jorgenswest
    As long as they don’t give Pagan any high leverage situations they should be fine. He has performed very poorly in high leverage situations over his career with an OPS against of .841
  8. jorgenswest
    They may as well start looking for teams interested in Correa now. They can’t win with this pen. Why would they want two years of control of Pagan?
  9. jorgenswest
    Even in a bad year for him Sanchez had a DRC+ last year of 106. Garver was 110. DRC+ takes into account the quality of opposing pitchers a batter has faced. Sanchez performance against those pitchers was 6% better than league.
  10. jorgenswest
    If they move Rogers they must really believe in Duran. Even so I don’t see how they can move Rogers and improve the team. They need a really good season from both Rogers and Duran to really contend. I would trade a corner OF prospect for pitching. The OF always has the much higher floor but you pay a premium for pitching,
  11. jorgenswest
    Talent trumps flexibility. Flexibility can help optimize existing talent. I hope the talent is there.
  12. jorgenswest
    Perhaps the Twins view Lewis closer to ready with the glove to play SS in the major leagues if there is a need. You may disagree with that view but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.
  13. jorgenswest
    Lewis had an opportunity to show it in summer 2020. We didn’t get to see it but the Twins saw him every day. I trust he should be in AAA. I don’t need to see it for myself.
  14. jorgenswest
    We set our inspiration bar in different places. I think this will be among the more interesting AAA teams and watching a game in St. Paul should be a good ticket this summer.
  15. jorgenswest
    Balazovic and Sands are pretty young and they do have their share of younger pitching on the major league roster in Duran, Winder and Ryan.
  16. jorgenswest
    Last year all of the replacement options were injured so there was nothing at the other end of the leash. Assuming the options are healthy and finding success I don’t think the stay will be long. In 2012 Jason Marquis saw 160 batters over 7 starts before they let him go. While small sample wise it would be the length of my leash. Marquis went signed with San Diego and was reasonably successful posting a 4.04 ERA over 15 starts and then gave them another 20 starts the next year with a 4.05 ERA. They could have used that performance but I still think the made the right decision to give that short leash.
  17. jorgenswest
    How critical is a third catcher? The Braves used 7 catchers last year. Four of them were not in the organization when the season started. Garrett Stubbs and his career 485 OPS was the Astros third catcher. He was on the roster 5 times last year totaling about 10 weeks. Somehow both teams were pretty successful without a reliable third catcher.
  18. jorgenswest
    There was a rule last year where players could only be called up immediately from AAA due to COVID protocals. There is a report of Celestino added to St. Paul in the window between his last Wichita game and major league debut. He never played for St. Paul but was likely there long enough to pass through protocol (negative test, quarantine?) before making his debut. I have not seen where those protocols are continuing this year so I would think a player could immediately move from any level to majors the same day. As for the Twins front office, I am not concerned about them being hesitant to move a player from AA. The last time this was relevant was 2019 and they moved up Arraez after he had spent just three days in AAA.
  19. jorgenswest
    Last year the Rays and Giants were two teams that found success while increasing the percent of at bats when their batters had a platoon advantage. You don’t see it in baseball very often any more because the roster spot for the short side platoon hitter has been lost to larger pitching staffs. Darin Ruf(34) and Austin Slater(28) are two right handed bats on their bench that produced an 1007 and 894 OPS against left handed pitching. They still see a lot of right handed pitching. Shorter starts ensure that in this baseball era but they still saw a much greater than expected ratio of at bats against lefties. The Giants bench allowed the the. options to tweak the platoon advantage in those high leverage situations. The Rays roster construction allowed them to see the platoon advantage in 62.1% of their at bats (3rd in baseball). The league median was 53.2%. They were second in runs scored. Would it benefit the Twins to devote of roster spot to a platoon player? Do they have in Garlick someone that can give them the advantage that the Giants found in Ruf and Slater?
  20. jorgenswest
    Smeltzer also has had a full spring training and that may make a difference early in the season.
  21. jorgenswest
    For some reason Rooker has not hit left handed pitching in the minors. The other side of the coin is that he has hit right handed pitching well. Very few batters have maintained a reverse platoon split through there career. If Rooker adjust towards a more neutral split and maintains his hitting against right handed pitching he has a chance at a Josh Willingham type career.
  22. jorgenswest
    This is often true for a season because of the sample size. It could be a four year temporary illusion or it could be that he sees right handed pitchers better. His string of OPS against mostly minor league left handed pitchers doesn’t suggest to me he would be a good platoon option. I would have more confidence in Garlick.
  23. jorgenswest
    Rooker bats right handed but he hasn’t really hit left handed pitching very well. He has reverse splits. Combining his majors and minors his OPS against left handed pitching the last three years are 714, 762 and 738. The Twins don’t need a right handed bat. They need a hitter that can hit lefties. Rooker does not check that box.
  24. jorgenswest
    Look at the performances of Wood, DeSclafani, Gausman and even Sanchez the year or two before the Giants signed them. They were all pitchers who had previous success as a starter but recent struggles and some injuries. I don’t think it was good luck on the Giants part. Their staff deserves the credit for finding that talent again and Minnesota must do the same with Archer and Bundy. It won’t be bad luck either if the Twins continue to fail to identify inexpensive pitching help.
  25. jorgenswest
    When the Twins signed Rich Hill I felt he would either pitch well enough or be injured. I think I feel the same way about Archer.
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