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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Should Baldelli have kept him the sixth inning to face the middle of the Yankee line up a third time through? I was hoping it would be Jax in that spot.
  2. jorgenswest
    ERA doesn’t do a very good job of projecting future performance but influences are perception significantly. A few other FIPs Pagán 6.14 Bundy 4.61 Archer 4.94 FIP uses home run rate which does not stabilize early so xFIP might be better projectors as a guide to who the Twins should let go. xFIP Duffey 2.88 Thielbar 4.08 Pagán 3.56 Bundy 4.01 Archer 5.07 I am unsure when xERA stabilizes Duffey 6.71 Thielbar 3.07 Pagán 4.98 Bundy 3.82 Archer 5.52 Why are Duffey’s projectors all over the place? The sample is very small and highly influenced by a 41.7% HR/FB rate. It is highly unlikely that rate going forward will be near 41.7%. Last year it was 7.4% and the previous 5 years it was in the teens.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think the are 66-42 in one run games since 2019.
  4. jorgenswest
    If Arraez makes the play on the ball that rolled just under his glove and Duffey has a clean inning do you write the same article? Another thing that I wonder about is the 50/50. You never get to see the other side of the coin and the decision they didn’t make. Really Baldelli can only fail. Even in the game where he pulled Smeltzer after 4 and Cotton had a clean inning it is seen as a failure. We don’t get to see the side of the coin where Smeltzer pitches that inning and sees the top of the lineup the third time. We don’t have any idea how many failures have been avoided. Baldelli will continue to fail in hindsight if he only has one reliable option in the pen. When they need to get through 5 or 6 innings with this bullpen somebody is going to fail and Baldelli will have made the wrong decision. If Arraez gets that ball then it is about Megill instead or maybe Pagán. The problem is not fixed with the subtraction if Duffey. The only solution to this problem is one of addition and not subtraction. With a few good additions Baldelli’s decision making will improve.
  5. jorgenswest
    Should we be concerned about the average exit velocity? Should we be concerned about his performance last year?
  6. jorgenswest
    Sano’s traditional slash stats were awful in a sample where they should not even be considered. Looking at data that would be more stable at 65 plate appearances… career low strike out rate best walk rate since 2015 career low out of zone swing rate average exit velocity above career average in spite of changes He wasn’t rewarded for his improvement in the zone yet. I do expect he will get an opportunity in the second half and do some damage.
  7. jorgenswest
    On June 19 they go down to 13 pitchers. If his wrist is not troubling him call him up then. The playing time will work itself out.
  8. jorgenswest
    My guess is that an IL stay with rehab assignment would come first.
  9. jorgenswest
    It seems like some are very focused on pitch count. One thing that has been pretty consistent pulling back end starters before they go through the line up the third time. In his last start Archer was pulled with the lead off hitter coming up for the third time. He was only at 57 pitches and it had been taking him 15-20 more pitches to get through the line up twice in his other starts. Smeltzer has seen batters a third time but those were 2 starts against the Royals and one against the Tigers. Yesterday he was up against one of the better hitting teams in baseball with a day off the next day. I can get behind a plan that pulls him early so he doesn’t see that line up a third time in those conditions. Is it possible that Rocco is more concerned about the third time through than pitch count?
  10. jorgenswest
    It is more likely Cotton never gets in the game. You can’t just push Cotton to the 6th and assume the results are the same. They had the match up they wanted for Cotton with the 8th place hitter coming up. They decided that Cotton gave them a better chance against those three right handed batters than Smeltzer. He came in and pitched a clean inning. If they leave in Smeltzer for the 5th the plan is still Jax to the middle of the line up in the 6th, Smith for the 7th and Duran for the last two.
  11. jorgenswest
    Given that Cotton came in a clean 5th inning it is really hard to argue Smeltzer should have been left in. Did you really want him to face Springer again. His command was shaky. Do we want to hand the ball to Cotton with a runner on and Springer up? We can’t just push everyone back and imagine that Cotton would have had a clean 6th facing the middle of their line up. It still would have been Jax and Smith until their line up turned over and they gave it to Duran. I absolutely want my best pitcher pitching the last two innings against this team. Somehow this team won two games against a very good offense with many pitchers unavailable. There must be some credit we can give to the coaching staff.
  12. jorgenswest
    That was a tough match up for Smeltzer and he would have hit the line up a third time through in the 5th inning with Springer batting third. Starting Cotton with a clean inning was a reasonable move given the day off.
  13. jorgenswest
    That is a good comparison. Shoemaker’s last start was game 57. He had an ERA of 7.28 after that game. I don’t know his FIP but he pitched little after that and it was 6.57 for the year. Yesterday was game 55. Bundy’s ERA is 5.57 (FIP 4.62). Unless Winder, Gray and Ryan are all ready to return soon without rehab they don’t have a better option for his next start or two.
  14. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t need the same players but just similar as a means of retaining value. It could be Canterino instead of Woods-Richardson. They have similar value according to BTV.
  15. jorgenswest
    I guess those next two starts include the Yankees and Mariners. A good start against the Yankees probably gets him beyond the 2.5. A poor start and they may go the IL route.
  16. jorgenswest
    Would Martin and Woods-Richardson bring back Frankie Montas? If so the deal is a win. They would be giving up a season Berrios where they were going nowhere for a 2023 season from Montas.
  17. jorgenswest
    Kikuchi is a lefty. Kepler likely would have been on the bench tonight. This would have been the game to help his legs recover. Pagan pitched yesterday. May not have been available today. They have other arms in the pen to replace him. The impact on tonight’s game seems minimal. Is Celestino back? Maybe he gets the key hit or scores the winning run. Maybe Hamilton has a clean inning or two midgame to bridge to the end. Theilbar? Does Toronto doesn’t have left handed bats to worry about? If they lose tonight it shouldn’t be on the unvaccinated.
  18. jorgenswest
    I guess I can respect how important the decision is to each of these players. I don’t think they are getting paid. Megill is giving up major league pay. Kepler must be giving up around 125000. This is not a decision I would have made but I can respect it.
  19. jorgenswest
    There was never any reason to think Joe Smith had changed. His ERA has bounced around due to the small sample of any single season of a reliever. Reliever ERA should be ignored. His xFIP has been very stable for 4 years. Use him to put out a fire against right handed batting in the middle innings and he will be useful. Pagán’s command trouble shows itself in two ways. If he pitches to stay out of the center of the plate he gives up too many walks. If he pitches to keep his walks down he gives up too much hard contact. There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground. His outlier year with the Rays is three years in the past and in a year he stranded 95% of base runners. That really isn’t a skill. His career number is 80%. This year it is 98% thus far. I would expect it to be closer to his career number going forward. The Padres wanted to send him to the Mets even without getting a reliever back. I wonder if they planned on keeping him if they didn’t find a trade partner. The Twins could have fixed their starting pitching needs by trading prospects. Instead they cut the head off their bullpen. As Chief said at the time… “No team serious about contending trades Rogers.” Unlike the Padres, the Twins are not serious about contending this year.
  20. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t matter. It isn’t a season changing decision or a career altering decision. Either can help but neither can play catcher. If Kepler goes on IL I think it will be Godoy to give Sanchez another day after being pulled yesterday. Godoy might be needed through Tuesday’s double header. As for Miranda, since Lewis went down he is 6 for 14 with 3 doubles. Was it worth all the angst when Lewis was sent down instead of Miranda?
  21. jorgenswest
    The foot work part is not a surprise. He hasn’t played SS and the foot work is very different. It takes time. It would no be reasonable to expect his foot work would be good. I wonder what the Twins see that would encourage them to continue this development.
  22. jorgenswest
    Pagan, Paddack and Medina for Rogers and Rooker. Who says no?
  23. jorgenswest
    I haven’t seen Martin play but the minor leagues is the place to try to develop your swing and risk poorer performance while making those adjustments. It is also the place to risk defensive errors while pushing a player towards SS. In Jeter’s first year and a half at SS he had 77 errors in 183 games. Tim Anderson in his first full season had 34 errors in 81 games. I don’t think I would close the door on SS solely based on those error numbers.
  24. jorgenswest
    In 2018-2018 his wRC+ were 109 and 114. In 2021 he had a significant back injury that might explain performance before and after the 60 day IL. In the outfield overall he has a positive career OOA(2) and UZR(1.3). Even in CF he has a positive career OOA. If his recovery from the back injury is full it seems like he can help a major league team.
  25. jorgenswest
    Sigh. I am not sure how your response fits. I was in total agreement with Chief when he made this statement prior to the announcement of the Rogers trade. As I read his definitive statement about Correa I recalled this similar one prior to Rogers. Merely pointed that out.
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