Jump to content
Bailey Ober takes the bump as the Twins try to halt the losing streak. Come join the discussion! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,085

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to identify guys like Freeland and Weaver and then up their game. I couldn’t possibly know whether either of these two has untapped potential and wish I had more confidence in the Twins ability to make that assessment. I do think these are the kinds of moves small to mid market teams need to make and win on, The Twins certainly can afford to trade from their prospect depth to acquire either or both. Odorizzi had two good seasons with the Twins and should certainly be considered for a marginal minor leaguer that will soon be a 40 man roster decision. The contract is not prohibitive. A Pineda signing would be a similar move,
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t find the rebuild debate helpful. Of course they are in a rebuild. They are rebuilding an entire rotation from the one they began with in 2021. The debate is really how they use their resources to rebuild that staff. Do they trade 2023 assets to improve the 2022 rotation? Do they devote a significant portion of the 23-25 budgets to sign a starter who will likely have their best season with them in 2022? I would be 2023 focused with every use of assets.
  3. jorgenswest
    Yes. That is my plan for this off season. Make moves that will make the 2023 team better. In this case it makes the 2022 team better also.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don’t go by what they say or even read it. I can see the roster. My filter became 2023 in late August when Maeda was lost for 2022. At the trade deadline Maeda had finished a very strong July with 5 starts and an ERA OF 2.15. It was plausible to add a number 2 pitcher and build the rest of the rotation for 2022. As soon as they lost Maeda I would advocate the Twins devote resources to assets that they control through at least 2023. It is my suggested filter not the Twins. I don’t know their plans and can only offer my thoughts. I am sure many disagree,
  5. jorgenswest
    You are pretty convincing. My filter is 2023. Does this make trade make the team better in 2023? I think it does and Montas would be a needed piece of any 2023 playoff rotation. I suppose the Twins could wait until next season to make this kind of deal and try to get someone with 23-24 control. I just wonder if starting pitching will be available next off-season as they appear to be this year from the Reds and A’s.
  6. jorgenswest
    I didn’t look it up before but Montas (39.6) for Martin and Woods-Richardson (total 40.4) make a pretty good match according to BTV. Bassist would add 17 to the deal. If the Twins don’t believe in Montas then maybe someone like Tyler Mahle who also has two years of control and similar enough WAR. The cost of acquiring Berrios level starting pitching through trade is vast. I would make that Montas deal but I get why the Twins might be wiser to believe more in the future of Martin.
  7. jorgenswest
    Would it makes sense for the Twins to trade Martin and Woods-Richardson for Montas? Would it seem like they don’t have a plan by trading for prospects and then turning around and trading for a pitcher? It would be like trading Berrios for Montas. How does flipping one starter for another help? It helps because they traded the last two months of Berrios 2021 for the Montas 2023. They weren’t going anywhere in 2021. Why not trade him while his value is high and bank the prospect capital? Why not use that capital for much needed starting pitching? The Twins need starting pitching. If they can trade Martin for a Berrios like return with control in 2023 they absolutely should do it. Note: I chose Montas because I was looking for a pitcher that was a close match for Berrios in WAR last year (both 4.1) with 2023 control. There might be a better candidate. Let’s try not to derail a discussion about trading Martin with a debate about Berrios v Montas.
  8. jorgenswest
    Good work and insight. I don’t disagree with the grade but I find hope in Celestino’s AAA performance at age 22. Given more consistent play he showed a little pop, good speed and a good walk rate. Given his age and athleticism he may have the most upside on your debut list.
  9. jorgenswest
    Should they offer Martin and Woods-Richardson for two years of Montas? It would essentially be an exchange of Berrios for Montas where the Twins gave up the last two months of 2021 in exchange for all of 2023. I would do it but I wonder if the A’s will get a better offer.
  10. jorgenswest
    Is it better to spend money trying to add runs or prevent runs? I think that is the question. Bill James’ Pythagorean expected wins would suggest it is better to prevent runs. Let’s suppose you had a team projected to a .500 record at 4.5 runs scored given up per game. If you somehow had the resources to add 1 run per game you would be projected for 94.4 wins. If on the other hand you had the resources to prevent a run per game your projection would be 97.0 wins. In that vacuum it is better to spend on preventing runs. There are a lot of other factors at play though. I think spending on offense is less prone to injury and a little more reliable.. On the other poor pitching and short outings can put more stress on all of the arms on the staff. I think the Twins would be wise to invest resources into arms with multiple years of control rather than add to the offense.
  11. jorgenswest
    Larnach should probably start in AAA. Major league pitchers exploited his weaknesses last year. Celestino probably will join him unless he can win a regular role of at least 4 games a week in spring training. His glove in LF would be an asset if his bat is ready. They need a right handed bat that can play some corner OF. I would give Miranda a shot. Miranda needs to find at least 4 games a week between corner OF, 3B, 2B and 1B. If his bat is real LF might be the spot he can get regular play next year. I would start Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler with Miranda, Gordon and Arraez filling in. Larnach, Celestino and Martin can battle for the first guy to get called up when injuries strike.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would absolutely seek pitching with more than one year of control in a trade. I would not seek a shortstop in trade. I would play Polanco until Lewis or Martin is ready. They need to invest their resources into pitching.
  13. jorgenswest
    He has shown that he can hit AAA pitching. Assuming he has a good spring training (not measured by spring training staff but in the eyes of the staff) he should be on the roster. He can find playing time on the four corners and 2B. His right handed bat should start against every lefty and he should be starting enough against right handed pitching to be on target for over 400 PAs. He is a much better fit than Larnach who may need to start in AAA.
  14. jorgenswest
    Of course this is a rebuild. They have no starters from last year’s opening rotation. They have no choice but rebuild the pitching staff. There are so many directions they can go but ultimately I hope any investment, whether it be in dollars or prospect capital, goes towards pitchers they control in 2023. They can rebuild the 2022 rotation with one year contracts but all that does is increase the likelihood that they will need to rebuild again next year. I would strongly prefer the struggles of young pitchers as opposed to pitchers on one year contracts. They need to rebuild but they need to rebuild with a foundation for 2023 as a priority.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have no interest in Rodriguez short of a minor league deal. His xERA and xFIP both declined significantly last year and they are the better indicators of performance this year. Colome performed exactly as should have been expected last year with an XFIP of 4.21. It had been 4.26 in 2020. The Twins made the mistake of buying too much into ERA last year with Colome. Will they with Rodriguez?
  16. jorgenswest
    Is it wise to assume that Polanco’s success at the plate is explained by his move to 2B? Isn’t it more likely that he is following a common career path? Through age 27 lots of players have their best season at the plate in that age 27 season. Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B gives them a middle infield foundation for a very good line up. I would feel pretty good about the middle infield with those two starting and Martin and Lewis near ready.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Story deal isn’t a one year deal and the challenge of adding pitching will continue into next year with a major portion of the budget devoted to three bats. In a few years does Story need to move off of SS? Can we expect his decline to drop from his road OPS? How much do we want to pay for the that decline in the back end of that deal? Would those dollars be better spent elsewhere? I can’t look at this deal and only think about the 2022 budget and team,
  18. jorgenswest
    Thoughts reading the thread… How much longer will Story be effective at SS. Defense does not age well at SS. Is defense at SS still important enough to sign a short term glove first defender? Why did the author choose to use OOA for the defensive metric over UZR or DRS? I had been using it also but ran into some studies that turned me back to RDS and UZR for infielders. Is there anything that points to OOA for middle infielders as more reliable? Donaldson was much worse than any other 3B last year according to UZR. Should we be worried? Most of the negative came from errors. Polanco was similar at SS with his poor UZR tied to errors in 2019. He had a positive UZR at SS in 2020. Does SS cause considerably more stress on the ankle than 2B? Is there any other case where a player moved to 2B in order to reduce stress on their legs? Is it possible the most upside in wins is Polanco at SS, Arraez at 2B and spend all available budget as a result on pitching?
  19. jorgenswest
    Great news! I wonder how the Twins account for the incentives in their budget. I guess this is something that might factor in more during the trade deadline (and their willingness to take on contracts) if he is healthy and likely to earn those incentives.
  20. jorgenswest
    The Giants added 7 free agents to the 2021 team according to Spotrac. The largest AAV was LaStella at 6.25 million. His was a three year contract. McGee signed a 2 year contract at 2.5 million per year. DeSclafani signed a one year 6 million dollar contract. Alex Wood signed for 1 year a 3 million. The other three Casali, Wisler and Brebbia were around a million. Jose Alvarez was also signed in March for about 1 million. Zac Littell was not in Spotrac but maybe he was a minor league free agent. They also made some trade prior to the 2021 season. Sam Conrood for Carson Ragsdale. Shaun Anderson for LaMonte Wade Did I miss any other additions to the 2021 team? I would love for the Twins to follow this same path. The Giants retained all of their prospects and did not commit to any significant contracts. Instead their talented staff made great decisions. I think this is the path I would advocate for given the current outlook. Sign Buxton. Take a flyer on some inexpensive free agents. If they do trade prospects they need to get multiple years of control. It really comes down to the Twins staff making great decisions. I wish I were more confident.
  21. jorgenswest
    This team is not close to a contender. They can’t trade off prospect capital for players with one year of control.
  22. jorgenswest
    IfI understand this right wouldn’t that mean in 10 games he was able to produce 1.7 fWAR to get to his 4.2 for the season? Wow! I want that player on my team. I would pay up big for that kind of talent.
  23. jorgenswest
    How similar is Cobb to 2019 Homer Bailey? Seems like same age and some similar peripherals. Bailey was healthy in 2019 starting more games that season than Cobb started in 2021 and 2020 combined. In fact Bailey has pitched more major league innings since 2019 than Cobb has pitched in the same time frame. When you combine those two seasons as we probably should given that he had less than 100 innings last year his numbers don’t look very promising. He had only 5 starts of at least 6 innings last year. Bailey pitched well in 2019. Happ pitched well in 2020. Cobb pitched well in 2021. Go back one year for each and they don’t look that promising. It is critical to take a two or three year look when considering a mid 30s pitcher.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would trade Arraez for starting pitching. Three paths they might pursue. Seek a ready but not yet established younger start and bet on the upside. The Guardians McKenzie comes to mind. Seek an established younger starter and add a few prospect arms like Woods-Richardson and Canterino. The Giants Webb comes to mind. Seek an established number top of the rotation starter with one year left before free agency. Berrios comes to mind. I am not necessarily advocating for those three specifically but just outlining different paths. Do they go for upside of an unestablished but promising pitcher? Do they trade away some upside to get an established pitcher with control? Do they maximize the return for 2022 without sacrificing the prospect upside? Which is the better path for Twins?
  25. jorgenswest
    They need to focus on the top two tiers of pitchers and then use prospect capital to trade for pitching, Assuming Ryan and Ober are 4-5 I would not fill the top three roles with a buy low candidate. Of the three I am not certain Rodriguez is a buy low and may be a good multi year fit.
×
×
  • Create New...