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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    He would help. He can’t be the best reliever they pick up at the deadline.
  2. jorgenswest
    In season it is so easy to be reactionary to the small sample of relievers. Beyond strike out and walk rates it is hard to project forward. WPA is not a stat that projects forward. xFIP relies on strike out and walk rates. Duran stands out with an xFIP near 2. They really need another arm to go with Duran. The best of the rest are in the low to mid 3s including Pagán, Jax and Duffey. Pagán and Duffey both have HR/FB rates well above career norms. That should regress. However they both have a history of giving up hard contact and a home run rate greater than league average so their xFIPs might be a little too promising. They might have someone in the roster that can join those three. Many of their relievers have a very small number of innings that no current data is helpful. Maybe Moran or Megill fits in that group. I would be shocked if Thornburg belonged with that group in the 3s. The last time he had an xFIP in that range was 2016.
  3. jorgenswest
    Which? They are allowed to move any of them. They need to move whatever it takes to acquire the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline as well as a Rogers caliber reliever.
  4. jorgenswest
    I guess I am not most people.
  5. jorgenswest
    Good point. I hope it would not change my principle.
  6. jorgenswest
    I can respect Wes wanted a different job. I have changed jobs. There was no dirty laundry. I don’t think we should expect there was dirty laundry. Unfortunately when no dirty laundry is found people will start making stuff up. I can’t respect leaving in the middle of a big project… in this case a major league season.
  7. jorgenswest
    Nice game. Pagán came up big. If they can add someone at the top of the pen he would be an asset in inning 6-7. Duffey pitched well. No hard contact. Ground balls. Contreras took away a hit that had a .970 expected batting average. He will be useful the next few years while he is on options. In that time he may grow into a fourth OF role.
  8. jorgenswest
    I hope they are able to acquire at least one reliever of the caliber of Rogers which is far better than decent. They need a few decent relievers also.
  9. jorgenswest
    Thornburg is almost 34 years old. He has pitched 64 major league innings to an ERA of 5.34 since 2016. Baldelli used his best options yesterday.
  10. jorgenswest
    As we evaluate the Paddack/Rogers deal should we consider the prospect cost of replacing Rogers to that evaluation? If they end up needing to trade a good prospect or two in order to get a few months of a Rogers level reliever is it still a deal you like?
  11. jorgenswest
    I would think critical to any analysis would be a comparison to other teams as well as a comparison to the performance of players previously picked in that slot. I would also wonder if some teams are more successful with picks after round 2 and that it might be due to their skill in identifying and developing talent rather than random as you suggest. Those factors seem so much important than an MLB ranking. Is there any evidence that MLB rankings have been a reliable predictor of future performance? As for Jeffers… he was picked in the middle of the second round and has more WAR than any other player picked in that round. Can I assume that every other team in that round would receive a lower grade for their pick in round 2?
  12. jorgenswest
    This is on Pagán who wasn’t good enough last night and pitched like his peripherals foreshadowed he would pitch. Ultimately Pagán can shake off any pitch and it looks like he shook off the 3-1 pitch. Pagán wasn’t good enough in 2020 for the late innings in 2020. He wasn’t good enough in 2021. His ERA looked good this year due to a very high LOB rate. That isn’t a skill. His FIP is 5.56 for this season. I expect he is better than that but not good enough to be part of a playoff bullpen. I guess this is on Falvey who traded the teams best reliever and now has to add to the cost of that trade by sending prospects to a team to try to replace the reliever they lost. A left handed reliever that would fit perfectly on this team. Whoever we evaluate this trade we need to add the loss of any prospects sent to try to fix this gaping hole. As Chief send… No team truly serious about contending would make this deal.
  13. jorgenswest
    I value 8 innings. Giving up one run on a sac fly with a 9-0 lead does not concern me at all. The last thing they need with a lead is walks. No walks yesterday, Gray’s 7 innings in a close game was probably better. Others commented on the atom balls. Average exit velocity for the game of 87.2 is below league average. There are probably a few hard hit outs in every game but overall he was not hit hard last night.
  14. jorgenswest
    It may have been the best start from a Twins pitcher this year. I guess maybe Ryan’s or Gray’s 7 inning start against Detroit might be better. Smeltzer also very had a good 7 inning against Kansas City.
  15. jorgenswest
    According to Fangraphs the Twins defense at catcher ranks 8th in baseball. They are very good at framing the ball and that has saved runs. Jeffers has been one of the best receivers in baseball. They could rank better but the stolen base numbers have cost them two runs over 65 games this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    He will be back up soon enough. I thought he needed a long stretch in AAA to get his swing back from before the wrist injuries. I believe I said two months. Today is one month. I am probably swayed by the small sample of that month but I would bring him up when the number of pitchers is restricted to a maximum of 13. I believe that is the end of this week.
  17. jorgenswest
    The preparation to play catcher is more intense than any other position. You need to the game plan, the opposing hitters and your own ever changing staff (29 pitchers so far?). The other parts of the game are going to take time to develop.
  18. jorgenswest
    As for the pick no one picked in the 2018 second round has more WAR than Jeffers. Only 7 of the 35 have reached the majors. One of the catchers picked after him, Will Banfield, is hitting .208 in A+. Banfield was given an over slot 1.8 million compared to Jeffers’ 800K. Josh Breaux (over slot 1.5M) his hitting .224 in AA. It seems like the Twins made a very good pick with their reach. It is really hard to find and develop a catcher. I would be patient with his bat. If the Twins value throwing out runners more they can change his positioning away from one that is designed to frame the plate.
  19. jorgenswest
    After his first 14 starts Berrios had an ERA over 8. Sands is not ready but I sure would not DFA him based on a few months of bouncing back and forth this season.
  20. jorgenswest
    I certainly don’t need to know. I would prefer if the opposing teams don’t know.
  21. jorgenswest
    I look at that same list and appreciate the depth. I don’t think an Archer or Bundy type addition will be as necessary. I also believe an addition at the top like Montas would be really improve that group.
  22. jorgenswest
    He has carved out a role and is worthy of a roster spot. As for upgrade I don’t think they should aim to upgrade a bench spot with another bench player. I think you upgrade to someone who is going to knock several players down a notch and maybe it is Gordon that is left without a spot.
  23. jorgenswest
    We have nothing other than any of us who can watch routinely or read reports of those who watch routinely.
  24. jorgenswest
    We really have nothing to work with. It may take years for range factor to stabilize at the major league level. Bill James reintroduced it in 1976. He lists many problems. Among them are opportunities are not counted, outfields are sized differently, teams don’t see the same number of balls in play(due to strike outs), staffs that throw more ground balls and it doesn’t take into account the overall defensive skill of the team. Every player shares from the same pie. Team range factor is going to be about the same for every team and we know each team can’t be equally skilled defensively.
  25. jorgenswest
    There are a lot of words about range factor here. I am not sure I understand how it is helpful. It is really hard to parse out opportunities to go with the put outs. It is really hard to parse out the difficulty. There are so many factors that skew this data that I don’t see how it can have any meaning. Even if it does have meaning I think center field is a new position for Martin. You would expect struggle with the possibility of significant improvement. By my eye I see that improvement in Gordon as he gains experience. Martin is a AA player with what reports to be a high end skill of commanding the strike zone. We have seen teams like the Yankees and Astros that really value that skill. It is also appears they are pushing the limits of the defensive spectrum as well as trying to make some changes to unleash more power. Both of those changes take time. They will result in errors and some poor at bats. I would give it time to try to maximize his talents. Let’s see where he is at the end of the year.
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