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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Pagán maintained and even improved his command on day 3 of three in a row. Encouraging to see today. A bullpen arm that can go three days in a row without drop off has value.
  2. jorgenswest
    I did find today encouraging. He pitched three days in a row and his command was better each day.
  3. jorgenswest
    Certainly not. Colomé has had a better FIP in each year of his career (including 2022) than Pagán with the exception of 2019. In any given year that sample is small but over the term of several years Colomé has the edge 3.63 to 4.30. If we choose a sample most favorable to Pagán and only use 2019 on it is 3.93 to 4.37. You are right. He is not Colomé.
  4. jorgenswest
    I agree at this point. Let’s get close to the deadline and see where we stand. Maybe at that point a rental will become available at less prospect cost. Maybe Canterino or Balazovic are ready. Maybe they somehow stay healthy. Maybe either Archer or Bundy is pitching really well.
  5. jorgenswest
    My understanding of sample size is very different. Strike out rates and walk rates do stabilize earlier but you had OPS in the statement which is SLG and OBP. Those stats stabilize at 320 and 460 plate appearances. A partial season OPS is almost always from a small sample.
  6. jorgenswest
    It was the perfect time to push him and give him a chance to work out of a jam. It was the perfect time to push him towards 50 pitches. He hadn’t pitched in a week. The Twins win probability was 95% when he left the game. Imploding would have been giving Gimenez a center cut pitch to get a strike and watching the ball sail into the right field stands for a three run home run. He didn’t give in and ended up walking him.
  7. jorgenswest
    There have been some takes in a few threads that Jax was left in too long last night and Rocco doesn’t know how to manage a bullpen. I started to reply elsewhere but it fits better here. The Twins need Jax to be an arm that can give them multiple innings and up to 50 pitches. There are many encouraging signs as noted above that he can be that valuable piece. There was another game earlier this year where the Twins had a good lead he was in his third inning and over 40 pitches. In that third inning he loaded the bases and Rocco showed the confidence to let him work out of it. He did. Last night was similar. It didn’t work out as well but Jax needs these opportunities to get better. The Twins have shown confidence in Jax this year and he is earning that confidence. You can’t develop a pitcher if you don’t give them the opportunities to work out of their own jams and pitch through trouble near the end of their pitch count.
  8. jorgenswest
    Pagán doesn’t walk a tight rope. The Orioles, A’s and an umpire are holding a net for him. He loaded the bases against the White Sox and threw a 3-2 pitch off the corner that was not called a strike all night. There was one very similar pitch by Koepech to Polanco that was called a ball. If the umpire stays consistent and calls it a ball they probably lose that game. Same situation in A’s game but the 3-2 pitch is even further off the corner. Pinder swings. Is there any chance the Astros have someone on their roster who swings at that pitch? In two other games the Orioles and A’s had two runners in scoring position with the Twins holding a one run lead. Does he escape if it is the Yankees? He has made a change since last year. He is staying out of the strike zone where his pitches were clobbered the last two years. The result is more walks. It was a necessary trade off. He gives up too much hard contact when in the strike zone.
  9. jorgenswest
    Wrists are so important to hitting. David Ortiz had persistent wrist trouble as a Twin. It would have been reasonable at the time to believe that they would persist through his career. Finding a solution to the wrist has to be priority one. It might mean another lengthy IL stay.
  10. jorgenswest
    Cotton, Rodriguez, Garlick and Godoy come to mind as adds/drops from the 40 since opening day.
  11. jorgenswest
    I agree. We should look back multiple years including 2020 when he had Cy Young votes. I also agree about jumping the gun. The Twins saw some reason to sign him and must have felt they could make changes to help him be successful. That takes time. I think there is more to be encouraged about than discouraged in the peripheral data. Without question I am more encouraged by Ryan, Paddack and Winder and I have more faith in Gray. I would still see at least three more starts from Bundy and if that time the xERA and xFIP are well off league average I would move on.
  12. jorgenswest
    I posted this in another thread but it might fit better here to see Bundy in context of the other starters. It is early to project future performance based on the sample. Only Bundy and Ryan have faced over 100 batters. Once they get to the 150-200 range xERA and xFIP will be more useful but they are they best indicators we have early in the season. xERA from Statcast is taken from xWOBA which includes things like launch angle and exit velocity. Here are the ranks. 2.66 Paddack, 2.95 Ryan, 3.03 Winder, 3.39 Bundy, 5.26 Archer, 5.39 Ober xFIP use things like strikeout and walk rate which also stabilize early. 2.90 Winder, 3.19 Paddack, 3.46 Bundy, 3.72 Ryan, 4.19 Archer, 4.44 Ober I would be looking at those numbers in 3-4 more starts.
  13. jorgenswest
    Pagán was acquired on opening day. He hasn’t performed well since 2019. I think there is a chance that the Twins can help him return closer to his 2019 form but they did not have spring training to work with him. In 2019 his strike rate was 70% and this year it is 56%. With San Diego he was low to mid 60s. Is the low strike rate in part the Twins trying to make changes in season? Changes are needed. His San Diego performance wasn’t worthy of a high leverage role on a contending team. I am not sure who gets the his high leverage work but I hope they move him to a lower leverage role until he starts throwing strikes.
  14. jorgenswest
    They are all young. They won’t be ready for next year so I agree on the veteran back up. I am uncertain how you came up with the third catcher assessment at this point in their careers.
  15. jorgenswest
    The defense behind him in Baltimore was as poor as any game this season. If we are going to use stats things like strike out rate and walk rate “stabilize” around 170 batters faced. We will see that reflected in is xFIP which is currently 3.46. Launch angle and hit distance stabilize early also. It will be a little longer for exit velocity. His current xERA from statcast is 3.39. Those are the numbers I would pay attention to as he gets to the 8-10 start range if I want to project forward his performance.
  16. jorgenswest
    I agree. It would replace number 1 for me.
  17. jorgenswest
    Go to 2 catchers. Send out an outfielder. Celestino is a more useful piece in a 3 man bench with his speed and defense. Would you pinch hit Garlick for Kepler or Larnach or Arraez? I am not sure he is a clear upgrade there. If the answer isn’t a clear yes then they need to find a better third man on the bench. As for Kirilloff I think he needs a long enough stay to really get his timing down. He may benefit from an extended stay beyond his rehab days. Perhaps he finds his timing and returns when they have to go to 13 pitchers.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Royals and White Sox have few left handed bats.
  19. jorgenswest
    He didn’t give in but I do wonder if you write the same comment if that last pitch is called a ball and the batter walks.
  20. jorgenswest
    Bullpens need good pitchers. The variance due to small sample in their numbers is not a variance in talent level. As of now I believe Duffey is one of the best 8 talents they have for the bullpen that is sadly lacking in talent. They really needed to add rather than subtract from the pen this off season.
  21. jorgenswest
    They might be able to utilize Pagán situationally. He is not a pitcher you want to bring in with runners on base. He is too home run prone. If they can find situations where he starts innings and has a good match up he could give them some good work this year.
  22. jorgenswest
    True. They also let him go for a rental DH believing more in there other young pitchers. The challenge is to both identify and develop pitching. Ryan is seen as a back end pitcher that will be too home run prone. Did the Twins see more in him to develop? Since leaving the Rays where he was an extreme fastball pitcher in the minors that mix has changed. Slider usage has doubled and fastball usage is just under 50%.
  23. jorgenswest
    Sanchez looked better at catcher receiving balls than I had expected. Nice job on the end of that relay. He positioned himself well in receiving the ball before the runner. I suppose my expectations were not very high but he didn’t stand out like Astudillo or Pinto have in the past. I am more hopeful that he can be a passable catcher.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Padres improved their rotation for 2022 by replacing Paddack with Manaea. They improved their bullpen by unloading a reliever in Pagán that had been below replacement level the last two years with Rogers at the top of their pen. They will concern themselves with 2023 later. The Twins win projection for 2022 drops with this move. The outlook for 2023 is better. This is a move I would have been behind prior to Correa’s signing. Why not win the Manaea deal with someone like Woods-Richardson instead? That would be the move of a team serious about contending, They could be in the Padres spot with Rogers and Manaea.
  25. jorgenswest
    It is a very misleading stat for set up men. It is possible to come in the 7th or 8th and blow a save even though you were never going to get the opportunity to record the save. Success in those innings is recorded as a hold not a save. We shouldn’t look at the 9 failures without looking at his 63 career holds also. It might be more accurate to say he is 67-for-76 in holding the lead.
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