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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Twins need Ryan and Ober to be the top two. They will find corner outfielders. Pitching has been so hard to find.
  2. jorgenswest
    It don’t see it as a Cave or Colina question. I assume they have some plan on number of healthy pitchers they project on the 40. If he is healthy it is really a question of Colina and the pitchers on the edge of the 40 whether that is Smeltzer or Thorpe or a waiver claim. If he isn’t projected to be healthy I get it. They have a few other injured pitchers they are carrying and he really hasn’t pitched since 2019 with the option clock started. Does this point to their intention to contend? A rebuilding team might keep a Colina and the upside. A team planning to contend needs to optimize those 40 man spots for players that contribute now.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am thankful they have him next season. Good move a few years back to protect his service time in a season where he had an OPS+ of 5. For comparison Simmons has an OPS+ of 58 this year. He will sign if they pay up.
  4. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t sign him to an extension. Pay him next year and move on. They don’t need to pay for the decline.
  5. jorgenswest
    I don’t see how he would have any trade value. There will several fringe 40 man roster players available. I suppose a trade like the Wade deal is possible. I fear saying that because this is not a thread about Wade and some might derail it. The kind of return would be similar is my point.
  6. jorgenswest
    Relievers can be hard to trade in the off season because there is often a good supply a free agent relievers. Why trade prospects for Rogers when you can pay a few million more and get a similar reliever without hitting your farm system? Teams would have to wait until the reliever market is exhausted before trading. This off-season is different though. After Kenley Jansen there aren’t any relievers as reliable as Rogers. Kimbrel might be non-tendered but the supply of closers is small. Rogers will have trade value. With the limited supply the Twins won’t be able to replace him with another free agent. That supply thing is a double edged sword.
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t know if it is this deal but this is the kind of buy low trade the Twins front office needs to find and win. The kind of trade where most on the outside will reject. They need to be better than other teams at capturing the upside of players like Torres.
  8. jorgenswest
    When you sign an aging veteran to a four year deal you count on the bulk of that value to be in the first two years. He has performed as expected the first two years with a 125 OPS+ and starting 137 of 208 games. I would expect both those numbers will drop in the next two years. He is still a good player but relative to his contract likely a negative value. Those contracts are hard to trade in the off-season when there is also a supply of players in free agency, In two years that money will free up and the Twins can take another shot at a big free agent commitment
  9. jorgenswest
    At the trade Eno Sarris compared him to Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. I think he had some video of how his fastball and arm action were similar to Petit. Let’s hope he is near the upper extreme with his effectiveness in that style. Can he develop the pitch mix to face batters multiple times in the game? Can he be as effective from the stretch as he is from the wind up? Can he survive a likely high fly ball rate and avoid giving up too many home runs with runners on base? I think he will have some growing pains but he needs to be at this level.
  10. jorgenswest
    No to one year decline phase place holders.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think we have been given the answer. We might not agree with the Twins approach but Ober has thrown more innings this season than any of his previous professional season. They are limiting his remaining workload both within games and days of rest between starts.
  12. jorgenswest
    Hands are incredibly important to hitting and usually a lengthy rehab on the minors when recovering. He is doing that rehab here and it shows. When he was in the minors on his short rehab stay some wondered why he wouldn’t be up in the majors rehabbing given this is a lost season. His return this month is not predictive of his future and if the Twins front office use it to project his future value they will be mistaken. I think back to David Ortiz who suffered both a hamate injury early and wrist injury later in his time with the Twins. He did not perform well in return from either of those injuries and I think it led the Twins to project him as an inconsistent hitter that could not be counted on to perform well consistently.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think they need to take the Mariners path. They need to be better than everyone else at identifying a Chris Flexen. They need to invest innings in young pitchers like Gilbert, Sheffield and Dunn. They need to identify the prospects in trade that will make an impact as they did with Gonzalez. If they go the free agent route it has to be for multiple years of control as it was with Kikuchi. The Mariners have seen success and have one of the younger pitching staffs in baseball. Maybe the best moves this winter will be one where no ones would have predicted success.
  14. jorgenswest
    The Twins have proved false the often stated “There is no such thing as a bad one year contract”. The practice of signing stop gap pitchers to the rotation or late inning relief needs to stop. That gap only becomes wider the next year and the decline phase pitchers often found in one year deals are not guaranteed gap fillers. This doesn’t mean do nothing. They need to sign a free agent pitcher to a long term contract for the top of their rotation. They can make trades as they did for Odorizzi and Maeda. Instead of signing the Happ’s and Shoemaker’s they need to be better than every other team at identifying pitchers that have failed elsewhere and find that upside. They also need to invest innings into their own young pitching. If they can’t develop their own under control pitching they can not sustain success.
  15. jorgenswest
    No. They do not have the pitching. It would be a mistake to try to sign several guys a bargain prices and hope to squeeze out one more year. Instead they need to sign one pitcher spending in the mid 20s per year. That would have been the cost of Berrios in free agency. They need to find the rest either in-house, in trade or be better than everyone else at finding a Chris Flexen. Someone that comes out of nowhere and is young enough with control to be counted on for a few seasons. I expected Falvey to be the guy that can find those pitchers. No more one year stop gap pitchers. They don’t plug the gap and it only gets bigger the next year.
  16. jorgenswest
    Duffey will be 31 in December. This might simply be decline. The decline can be sudden for relievers. They often have one really effective pitch and when they lose a little on that pitch they don’t have anything else to fall back on.
  17. jorgenswest
    Reading about guys shining like Leobaldo Cabrera is a big reason I enjoy these reports. He may not be a prospect but fighting back into affiliated ball through the Empire League after getting released by the Yankees in 2018 makes for a good story. Thanks to the crew that provides these reports. I really appreciate them.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am uncertain about Dobnak’s status if DFA’d. Would it be more likely that he passes through because of the contract? Wouldn’t a team claiming him have to pick up the contract? I am not so sure his contract is a reason he stays on the 40.
  19. jorgenswest
    A few September starts isn’t going to change his development. The Twins aren’t going to learn anything they wouldn’t learn working in the minors. I still think they should bring him up. They should bring him up because it will simply be more interesting and fun to watch the game. I would look forward to his few starts. The Twins are in the entertainment business. Ryan has earned the call up. Bring him up in September. Limit his pitches. Entertain us.
  20. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins take a seriously internal look at themselves and find the truth in what he has said.
  21. jorgenswest
    While the market seemed hot for pitching it was almost exclusively better starting pitching than Pineda. I think it can be argued that Pineda is a better option than Lester and the Twins could have had a return of Lane Thomas. Thomas does have 4th OF potential but would the Twins have space for another OF on their 40 man roster this winter? Maybe. He could be a better to retain than Cave but is Cave someone that will be kept on the 40 this winter? Similar players will be available inexpensively this winter. Pineda might be a comp to Heaney. His ERA is better but Heaney has the better xFIP. Even if they could have substituted in Pineda for Heaney they are adding 25 year old AA starter Jason Junk who they would need to add to the 40 or expose in rule 5. I think the Yankees would prefer Heaney with his better health track record but maybe the Twins could have added another pitcher here. It seems at best the value of a starting pitcher like Pineda was a marginal prospect already on the 40 or needing to be added to the 40. These are the kinds of players they will find this winter DFA’d by other teams or exposed in the rule 5. I am scratching my head why a pitcher like Pineda or Heaney didn’t have a better market this year. Perhaps the supply of better starters brought down their value to players on the fringe of the 40 in return. Maybe retaining Pineda for two months has at least as much value.
  22. jorgenswest
    I don’t know about Gore but the concept of buying low as the Rays did with Glasnow and Meadows should be considered.
  23. jorgenswest
    It will not be a failure to set the bar high and end up keeping Buxton and Berrios at the deadline. A failure would be to trade them for a larger quantity of lesser prospects. The Rangers may well come out ahead with the volume of Yankee prospects but I think the likelihood of getting an elite player is significantly reduced. They do need to move Pineda and hopefully Simmons for the best they can get. There are a few possible sell high opportunities in Donaldson and Thielbar. Their value will decline. The same may be true about Duffey. They do need to move on from Happ, Robles and probably Colome. Keeping Belisle instead of looking at Anderson was a huge mistake. They can’t make that same mistake with Hamilton by keeping Robles around.
  24. jorgenswest
    The pitching has been so bad from so many that I have to wonder how much is on Wes and how much is on the front office in building this roster. When you veteran starter gives allows 14 base runners in 23 batters getting 9 outs while giving up 9 runs it is hard to put the responsibility for this game anywhere else. I am doubting Wes made any changes to Happ. The front office was horribly wrong believing they could get another year out of Happ. The bullpen options aren’t any better. No manager could navigate the final 6 innings with the bullpen pieces provided by the front office.. Was simply bad luck that the Twins are getting 10th percentile performance from so many of their acquisitions. That doesn’t seem possible. Has the physics of the game changed with the new ball? Has that impact been greater on the types of pitchers that the Twins analysis favors? Did their analysis lead them to more pitchers who were positively helped by spider tack? They have failed miserably in projecting performance of pitchers and they need to take a hard look at the scouting/analytics that led them to those pitchers. A serious internal review needs to happen.
  25. jorgenswest
    Robles season long poor peripherals have been hidden much of the season by an ERA that gave the impression that he was a better option among the bullpen. While ERA does tell the story of what has happened it is a horrible predictor of future performance outside of multiyear samples for relievers. A better predictor is xFIP and Robles xFIP has been the poorest among Rogers, Alcala, Thielbar, Duffey and Colome for much of the season. While his monthly ERAs vary wildly his xFIP monthly has been pretty stable in the 4s and 5s. He has one season in the last five with an xFIP below 4. He has not had a month this season with a xFIP below 4. He is the same pitcher he was in the winter when there was little interest. I would have been surprised if there was much interest at the deadline.
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