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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Things are not bleak In the minors. Players who end up at 3B don’t often start as 3Bs in the minors or even play there as their primary position throughout the minors. Donaldson was a catcher through AAA. If Donaldson hadn’t been signed it is a spot that Lewis could have taken.
  2. jorgenswest
    I was encouraged to see Gonzalez at 2B today. He might be the best option if something goes awry with Arraez.
  3. jorgenswest
    Astudillo’s DRC+ was 95 last year and above league average for his career. That is better than Gonzalez (93) and Cave (89) who faced a much easier set of opposing pitchers.
  4. jorgenswest
    Ehire plays middle infield. Gonzalez plays the corners. They overlap at 3B. If Ehire isn’t needed it will be Gordon or Lewis or some other middle infielder that pushes him out. Gonzalez needs to hit well enough to be useful at a corner.
  5. jorgenswest
    Seth- I really appreciate this report. Thank you.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think any projection for Gonzalez should probably give little weight to 2017-2018. His 2019 numbers are in line with his 2016 but he isn’t nearly as valuable as 2016 because he played just 1 game at SS and 2 games at 2B last year. Even Astudillo was given 2 games at 2B. He is still a good defender on a corner. His bat likely at 5-10% below league average isn’t empty. A good BABIP year and he a valuable piece. Selecting the right match ups with pitchers and his numbers will be skewed better. I hope he has one more useful year. On the other hand if there is more decline I hope the Twins will be ready to cut ties.
  7. jorgenswest
    I wonder how to adjust the home run context for era. Is there an ISO+? The duo of Mathews and Adcock must have been pretty good in an era where it was not as common to hit 35 home runs. Edit: I took a look. I think they should have made the list in 1956. They finished top 5 in baseball in home runs. Mathews led all 3B and Adcock led all 1B. Looking forward to Sano and Donaldson topping that duo.
  8. jorgenswest
    Gil wasn’t even in the Twins prospect handbook at the time of the trade. He is a good prospect now but he is probably still a lottery ticket. He was signed in 2015 and over 5 years has only around 200 innings. The Yankees had to put him on their 40 and the options clock has started. He will turn 22 (same age as Duran) and probably needs to start in high A given his persistent high walk rate and just 3 games at that level. If he can get through this year making a quick jump to AA and getting his walk rate down he will move beyond a lottery ticket. Back to CF options... Cave is on the team because he is a major league caliber OF with options. I don’t think he is as good as his numbers but with the bat he has around an .800 OPS and with the glove statcast shows that he gets to a lot of balls. His success rate on catches was better than his expected catch rate and overall his success rate ranked 33rd of 225 players with at least 25 attempts. Buxton was 16th and Kepler 27th. On the other end Rosario was 199th and Wade 219th.
  9. jorgenswest
    Cave made some obvious memorable mistakes that stick with us. Wade is more limited athletically and it shrinks his range. Cave gets to more balls and Wade is more reliable on the balls he gets to. I think Cave is the better bet long term defensively. His catch percentage was slightly better than his expected catch percentage last year. Wade wasn’t close.
  10. jorgenswest
    One measure gave a more optimistic look at Astudillo’s performance last year. BP’s DRC+ has him at 95. Below league average certainly but better than other players that on the bench like Cave(89) and Gonzalez(92). Avila was at 96. There are several factors here but one is the context of the set of pitchers he faced which were much more difficult to hit than Cave’s group.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think we need to look a lot deeper here. Has his top velocity dropped or is he throwing at top velocity less often? There has been an increase in Berrios’ number of batters faced with a ball in play after 1 pitch or 2 pitches from a 1-0 count. Batters crushed him early in counts last year. Is he taking something off the fastball to get ahead? Is that skewing the data? He did increase his innings and batters faced per game as a result but it might have reduced his average fastball. Is the increase in ISO driven by those at bats early in counts? Is he throwing a lower percentage of four seam fastballs? Would that reduce his average velocity? Is he closer to his max velocity against better opponents or hitters or in close games? There is quite a contrast in how Odorizzi and Berrios attack hitters early in counts. Odorizzi does not give in and the result is more pitches per plate appearance and shorter starts. Berrios has many more low count plate appearances and that may be as a result of taking a little off to get ahead.
  12. jorgenswest
    You might consider rookie status as a third restriction. Not a prediction but I am pulling for Jake Reed to get noticed.
  13. jorgenswest
    I don’t think you get that I am not using them as a negative or positive. In this case I added the context that the typical batter against his set of pitchers hit them better. I will often add context not to suggest a negative (or positive) but to suggest the futility of arguing with stats as a foundation - particularly stats resulting from a plate appearance. I think it comes off as a negative (or positive) when I offer that contrasting context. I am doing the same in another thread about Odorizzi the third time through. I am not suggesting a positive or negative but only pointing out that it can’t be seen by the skewed data offered. I offer this context to point out that teams need to make decisions long before these samples (that have a variety of skews) become reliable. You can't give all of your prospects the opportunity necessary to get to the point where the data becomes reliable. In fact that time span is multiple years so any improvement gets lost. That improvement can not be seen in slash stats. It needs to be seen by the staff. I trust the eyes of this staff and the skills of the data team. I think they took an organizational step forward in 2018 with hitting and a step forward last year with pitching. They haven’t been perfect but they need to get it right more often than most.
  14. jorgenswest
    I would call it random variation due to sample and the skew of a schedule where his opportunity came with a disproportionately larger number of games against weaker pitchers. I wouldn’t use slash stats to make a decision about Cave at this sample or even double this sample.
  15. jorgenswest
    Should he Twins be looking for a shortstop to add? Is Tovar enough additional depth? There may be some shortstops DFA’d as teams set their rosters. Some will have options. Others will not. If the player doesn’t have options the Twins might put them on as the 26th man temporarily and then hope the pass them through waivers later. If a player has options the Twins might have to offer something in return so that he isn’t lost to a team with an earlier claim.
  16. jorgenswest
    Front offices need to work hard at avoiding the labels. They can absolutely work with Buxton in managing his crashing into walls. The Twins can help him manage migraines. Trainers can help with muscle strength imbalance. That work and conversation is important and necessary to get the most from Buxton. Seeing their player as injury prone as if it was a fixed trait would not help. We throw around all kinds of labels on the humans we watch playing the game. Teams can’t afford to do the same.
  17. jorgenswest
    I wasn’t aware that he had an opt out date at the end of spring training. I wrote at the signing that this is a good deal with an opt out date of mid May but a bad deal if the opt out date is end of spring training. The Twins don’t need to give Chacin valuable spring innings to show case himself taking an opportunity from Dobnak, Thorpe or Smeltzer.
  18. jorgenswest
    It is reasonable to be concerned about the power and ISO. Does he profile like Brian Anderson of the Marlins? His ISOs did not stand out in the minors until AAA. He Is not a pull hitter. Anderson has more positional value that gave him the opportunity to have his break out season last year at 26. Larnach needs more time in the minors. It might be year 3 in the majors before we see that break out but I think he will be a good major league hitter. Can a contending team afford the patience he might need at the major league level? Does his value diminish if he comes to the majors and struggles? I think he is a relative sell high this year and hope a good healthy start in AA makes him a very desired player at the deadline.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think Thorpe needs major league inning to take the next step. The Twins need to develop starting pitching. I would start him in the rotation and keep Chacin in AAA until they need to make an opt out date decision. Give Thorpe those 7-8 starts before Pineda returns and give him a chance win the spot and move Bailey to the bullpen. Even if he struggles he will know what he needs to work on in AAA if he heads there when Pineda returns.
  20. jorgenswest
    There is an important difference driving the data. Odorizzi uses more pitches per plate appearance and ends up averaging 21.9 batters faced per game. Berrios uses fewer pitches and averages 26.3 batters per game. The end result is that the Berrios third time through data has much more of the bottom of the line up than the Odorizzi data. Berrios faces more batters per game and that is a benefit. It is a benefit with a hidden cost. Berrios is crushed when batters hit him with 0-0 and 1-0 counts. Odorizzi does not give in early in counts and has many fewer plate appearances of 1 or 2 pitches. The result is facing fewer batters per outing and a set of batters the third time through that is heavily skewed by the top three batters in the line up and an absence of the bottom third.
  21. jorgenswest
    Vince Coleman was a poor fielder in LF with a weak arm and bad routes. Vince Coleman his 28 career home runs. He was a one tool player. I don’t see any comparison.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hope Rocco doesn’t believe that about the third time through because it is a myth. The data is heavily skewed because pitchers get to their pitch limit somewhere in the middle of their third time through. The set of batters faced the third time through is mostly the top of the order. It can be seen if you look at batters the third time they face a pitcher. Looking at the 50 batters who faced a pitcher a third time at least 100 times last year they had their most success in their second at bat and not their third at bat. Odorizzi doesn’t give in or give a fat pitch early in the count like Berrios does. Batters see more pitches against him and he is pushing the pitch count earlier and his data is even more skewed.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to win games and use him in opportunities where he will help. There isn’t a need to get to the stabilization point so fans can see the value in slash stats. They need to see the value and make decisions about it much sooner. It would be foolish to give him playing for the purpose of making the data we see more stable. Mid and small market teams are going to be successful if they can determine a player’s value sooner and better than others. I am hoping we have a staff that is going to win on that more often than not. By their use I don’t think they see Cave as any more than a 4th or 5th OF with the ability to option.
  24. jorgenswest
    I am not so sure. Astudillo faced a much more difficult set of pitchers the last two years. His DRC+ was 95 compared to Cave’s 89. The previous year it was 125 to 92. Why DRC+ from BP? It correlates better to future performance. Astudillo doesn’t need to be a better hitter than Cave to be more valuable on the roster with his positional flexibility. I also think there are match ups against a high swing and miss reliever where pinch hitting Astudillo with runners on base is an asset. In reality there will be injuries and both will have plenty of opportunity in the 25 man.
  25. jorgenswest
    There is nothing better than a baseball game. I am in the bleachers watching a high school scrimmage right now. If it is more meaningful games at the end of the season I am in. There is still plenty to play for in the regular season because winning the division means you play all three in your park.
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