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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would think critical to any analysis would be a comparison to other teams as well as a comparison to the performance of players previously picked in that slot. I would also wonder if some teams are more successful with picks after round 2 and that it might be due to their skill in identifying and developing talent rather than random as you suggest. Those factors seem so much important than an MLB ranking. Is there any evidence that MLB rankings have been a reliable predictor of future performance? As for Jeffers… he was picked in the middle of the second round and has more WAR than any other player picked in that round. Can I assume that every other team in that round would receive a lower grade for their pick in round 2?
  2. jorgenswest
    This is on Pagán who wasn’t good enough last night and pitched like his peripherals foreshadowed he would pitch. Ultimately Pagán can shake off any pitch and it looks like he shook off the 3-1 pitch. Pagán wasn’t good enough in 2020 for the late innings in 2020. He wasn’t good enough in 2021. His ERA looked good this year due to a very high LOB rate. That isn’t a skill. His FIP is 5.56 for this season. I expect he is better than that but not good enough to be part of a playoff bullpen. I guess this is on Falvey who traded the teams best reliever and now has to add to the cost of that trade by sending prospects to a team to try to replace the reliever they lost. A left handed reliever that would fit perfectly on this team. Whoever we evaluate this trade we need to add the loss of any prospects sent to try to fix this gaping hole. As Chief send… No team truly serious about contending would make this deal.
  3. jorgenswest
    I value 8 innings. Giving up one run on a sac fly with a 9-0 lead does not concern me at all. The last thing they need with a lead is walks. No walks yesterday, Gray’s 7 innings in a close game was probably better. Others commented on the atom balls. Average exit velocity for the game of 87.2 is below league average. There are probably a few hard hit outs in every game but overall he was not hit hard last night.
  4. jorgenswest
    It may have been the best start from a Twins pitcher this year. I guess maybe Ryan’s or Gray’s 7 inning start against Detroit might be better. Smeltzer also very had a good 7 inning against Kansas City.
  5. jorgenswest
    I would not be interested in a flier at the deadline. If they need to take a flier they need to do so now so they know by the deadline if it worked out. I am interested in adding arms that slot in at the top of the rotation and bullpen.
  6. jorgenswest
    According to Fangraphs the Twins defense at catcher ranks 8th in baseball. They are very good at framing the ball and that has saved runs. Jeffers has been one of the best receivers in baseball. They could rank better but the stolen base numbers have cost them two runs over 65 games this year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Glad he was in the line up today. He came up big when no one else had done anything. I was thinking Rocco should pinch hit and lose the DH. I was wrong … again.
  8. jorgenswest
    He will be back up soon enough. I thought he needed a long stretch in AAA to get his swing back from before the wrist injuries. I believe I said two months. Today is one month. I am probably swayed by the small sample of that month but I would bring him up when the number of pitchers is restricted to a maximum of 13. I believe that is the end of this week.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think he will be back and contribute. There will be injuries and he will be needed.
  10. jorgenswest
    The preparation to play catcher is more intense than any other position. You need to the game plan, the opposing hitters and your own ever changing staff (29 pitchers so far?). The other parts of the game are going to take time to develop.
  11. jorgenswest
    As for the pick no one picked in the 2018 second round has more WAR than Jeffers. Only 7 of the 35 have reached the majors. One of the catchers picked after him, Will Banfield, is hitting .208 in A+. Banfield was given an over slot 1.8 million compared to Jeffers’ 800K. Josh Breaux (over slot 1.5M) his hitting .224 in AA. It seems like the Twins made a very good pick with their reach. It is really hard to find and develop a catcher. I would be patient with his bat. If the Twins value throwing out runners more they can change his positioning away from one that is designed to frame the plate.
  12. jorgenswest
    After his first 14 starts Berrios had an ERA over 8. Sands is not ready but I sure would not DFA him based on a few months of bouncing back and forth this season.
  13. jorgenswest
    Jeffers framing and sequencing yesterday looked really good and has been good. I thought his play behind the plate was critical to the win. I would keep playing him and expect the bat to develop.
  14. jorgenswest
    I certainly don’t need to know. I would prefer if the opposing teams don’t know.
  15. jorgenswest
    I look at that same list and appreciate the depth. I don’t think an Archer or Bundy type addition will be as necessary. I also believe an addition at the top like Montas would be really improve that group.
  16. jorgenswest
    Yes. As long as the starter is at the top of the rotation and a bullpen arm is at the top. With those moves I think the roster is capable of competing with the Yankees and Astros. Where do you stand?
  17. jorgenswest
    He has carved out a role and is worthy of a roster spot. As for upgrade I don’t think they should aim to upgrade a bench spot with another bench player. I think you upgrade to someone who is going to knock several players down a notch and maybe it is Gordon that is left without a spot.
  18. jorgenswest
    We have nothing other than any of us who can watch routinely or read reports of those who watch routinely.
  19. jorgenswest
    I appreciate TopGunn steering us back to what we would do. Let’s leave the conversation about what the front office may do or has done out of it. I would be all in for the only season I am guaranteed to have Correa. I would trade the prospects necessary to win the deal that brings me back the best starting pitcher moved at the deadline. I will also pay up for a reliever at the top of the pen.
  20. jorgenswest
    We really have nothing to work with. It may take years for range factor to stabilize at the major league level. Bill James reintroduced it in 1976. He lists many problems. Among them are opportunities are not counted, outfields are sized differently, teams don’t see the same number of balls in play(due to strike outs), staffs that throw more ground balls and it doesn’t take into account the overall defensive skill of the team. Every player shares from the same pie. Team range factor is going to be about the same for every team and we know each team can’t be equally skilled defensively.
  21. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Hope is good. We need hope.
  22. jorgenswest
    If Lewis runs into a wall in the minors or in Florida would we still put some responsibility on the front office?
  23. jorgenswest
    Pretty sure minor league stadiums have walls in the outfield.
  24. jorgenswest
    There are a lot of words about range factor here. I am not sure I understand how it is helpful. It is really hard to parse out opportunities to go with the put outs. It is really hard to parse out the difficulty. There are so many factors that skew this data that I don’t see how it can have any meaning. Even if it does have meaning I think center field is a new position for Martin. You would expect struggle with the possibility of significant improvement. By my eye I see that improvement in Gordon as he gains experience. Martin is a AA player with what reports to be a high end skill of commanding the strike zone. We have seen teams like the Yankees and Astros that really value that skill. It is also appears they are pushing the limits of the defensive spectrum as well as trying to make some changes to unleash more power. Both of those changes take time. They will result in errors and some poor at bats. I would give it time to try to maximize his talents. Let’s see where he is at the end of the year.
  25. jorgenswest
    What is the profile of a successful opener?do the Twins have someone that meets this profile? Griffin Jax? Would that be the best way to use him?
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