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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I just find myself having a hard time caring whether they paid him 3 million or 9 million or 12 million or how it is distributed. This is what is took to get him to sign. Many teams overpay to get a free agent pitcher. I do care a lot about whether he will help. I think he will be really helpful if he pitches. I think the chance of him returning and staying healthy is small. I wish I could find one example of a pitcher doing this new UCL repair surgery and returning to his previous level in 6 months.
  2. jorgenswest
    Curious also. I also wonder how much the front office should factor in the incentives to the budget planning. Where does the budget sit after these two signings?
  3. jorgenswest
    I just added to the narrative of his second half. You saw the other games in the original comment. If I was going to look at a few games I would want to see how he did against the Yankees. Any Twins pitcher throw like that against the a Yankees last year? He had three starts against the Yankees. 17.1 innings, 23 strikeouts, 2 walks. 2.08 ERA. No one pitched better against the Yankees in 2019. Each of his three starts were better than any of the 9 Twins starts against the Yankees. What does it mean? I don’t know but my reply was to the narrative that his good second half numbers were the result of pitching well against bad teams. The Yankees are not a bad hitting team.
  4. jorgenswest
    First? Explains why I couldn’t find anyone. I hope it works.
  5. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I am curious about pitchers with a similar repair and their recovery, I didn’t find any but I need to search with repair.
  6. jorgenswest
    You might have included his two August starts against the Yankees with 17 strikeouts and 1 walk over 11.1 innings or his September win against the Astros. Over the 3 starts he gave up 4 runs in 16.2 innings. The A’s were 2-1 losing one of the Yankee games in extra innings.
  7. jorgenswest
    i searched for other pitchers who have had primary revision surgery. I wasn’t successful at finding e apples of pitchers back in a half year. I really didn’t have success finding examples of pitchers with this surgery. I did run into several studies that weren’t helpful to me. Is the same surgery that Tallion and Josh Rogers had last season? Tallion is not expected back until 2021. The Twins won the deal and if he earns those incentives by pitching well he will earn the market rate for his play. I am less confident having searched that he will pitch effectively next year. Earlier I thought 25% but I would revise that down. I would still do this deal. It does not stop them from signing Donaldson or taking on a good portion of Price’s contract. It is a gamble on a pitcher that has been very good when pitching for several years.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Homer Bailey the second half of the season is playoff caliber and showed it in his late season starts against the Yankees and Astros. What is the likelihood he is that pitcher? Is it has high as 25% with the other split between league average, bad or injured? What is the likelihood Hill will be healthy in the playoffs? If healthy I think he is playoff caliber but I would give him a 25% likelihood that he will be healthy in the playoffs with at least that likelihood that he will not pitch at all during the season. The other hope right now is that at least one of Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Duran or Balazovic is a playoff caliber pitcher by the end of the year. The depth is there but no one is near that single impact pitcher to hang your hat on. Falvey earned this job with his reputation of finding and developing pitching. That ability needs to become reality in 2020.
  9. jorgenswest
    Need help here... I can find articles from fangraphs and Athletic referencing the effectiveness of Homer Bailey’s splitter. I can’t find the same for Parker in 2018. I will acknowledge it happens to be his best pitch as it is Bailey. Bailey is coming off a 2.9 WAR season that ended strong. Parker 0.1 in 2018 with a significant drop from 2017. I guess I may have hoped that the Twins could take Parker’s splutter and revitalized his career where Bailey took that step and needs to continue.
  10. jorgenswest
    I believe it is start of spring training but maybe that is what you meant be season.
  11. jorgenswest
    Reasons to hope on Homer... Homer Bailey was very good with the A’s in the second half. In two August starts against the Yankees he struck out 17 and walked 1. In those 11.1 innings he gave up 3 earned runs. He Pitched against Houston in September giving up 1 run. The A’s went 2-1 in those late season starts. Eno Sarris in the Athletic wrote about his splitter https://theathletic.com/1151891/2019/08/21/the-as-prove-their-formula-is-working-in-big-win-over-yankees/
  12. jorgenswest
    I think Price can help. His OPS against excluding the one plate appearance he face a pitcher was 757. Bumgarner’s excluding opponent pitchers was 764. Keuchel 811. The Red Sox have to help here. Like Ryu he is certainly an injury risk. In this market I think he gets a contract at least the level of Keuchel. As for his pitching the Twins need to believe that they can help him find that change up that was once elite. When elite he is elite. If they can get it back to a plus pitch they have a very good pitcher.
  13. jorgenswest
    If he were a free agent according to steamer projections he would slot in by WAR above Keuchel and Bumgarner and below Ryu. An AAV of 20 million would be in line with the crop of free agents and they wouldn’t have to go a 4th year. The Twins have urgency. They missed out on other free agents. They should be motivated here. It doesn’t even have to be a good deal. Pay too much salary year 1 just to get the deal done.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think it was reported on TD that he is in line for a 4th option. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/the-hazy-future-of-fernando-romero-r8320 I think you need to go down to comments and maybe another link.
  15. jorgenswest
    Good to have 5 guys that can be trusted in the 7th or later, I think Littell will step up and I am hoping on Romero’s upside at some point in the first half.
  16. jorgenswest
    Not out of line but not this discussion either. I appreciate the conversation of looking forward and have been avoiding the threads where we have an opportunity to voice our frustration and disgust with the front office. I would imagine others are so upset they don’t get this discussion and avoid it. From the current free agent group I think Walker and Hill in the second half have the best upside. That would be my plan B but a few have also pointed out how Wood might help and until reading this I hadn’t thought about him.
  17. jorgenswest
    Appreciate the article and effort. Back to the topic of major league talent they can trade. I think Arraez might be a sell high. He certainly has never had more value and likely more trade value than anyone in the initial list. Immediate replacement: Gonzalez, Adrianza, Gordon or pick up a SS and slide over Polanco. Potential suitors: Appreciate thoughts here. I haven’t done the research other than to look at Fangraphs 2B split and notice that the A’s, Cubs, Red Sox and Reds are in the bottom third. He is valuable to the Twins for the same reason he is a valuable trade chip. He has 6 years of control and is at the major league minimum. He has shown that he takes quality major league at bats. He might be the piece to get a good pitcher in return.
  18. jorgenswest
    Back to plan B and I appreciate those stay on topic. Did Jimmy Nelson land anywhere? With his injuries he might be a reliever now but there is talent in that arm.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think Byron Buxton plays 140 games and is team MVP.
  20. jorgenswest
    Hill would be insurance against injury for the second half. There are so many question marks and their need for a Hill in the second half appears greater than most. They should top other team’s offers and win this deal.
  21. jorgenswest
    It isn’t about “wouldn’t have wanted to” it is simply about control. I would absolutely get the best I can for Escobar in a lost season and no more control. Good move. I would not have traded Pressly and his additional year of control knowing that I was going to have to replace him for 2019. Really bad move.
  22. jorgenswest
    He really only used two pitches while in the majors last year. If spending some time in AAA working on the change up will help his development I would start there. Give him short starts in AAA and make sure to mix in the change up. If he shows an improved change up in the spring put him on the opening day roster but I wouldn’t plan to have him in the rotation. As for the opener that is fine but I hope they don’t worry about who is getting the win. If not getting a win has a negative impact on his performance imagine how many other things will. The main reason it reduces stress on his arm is because he starts with the bottom of the line up and sees the heart of the order and those difficult battles less often.
  23. jorgenswest
    They traded Escobar for prospects and replaced him with Marwin.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think the total pay out matters more than the year but if Price’s health risk is worse than Ryu’s then I would back off on Price. I don’t think Ryu gives more than two years of starts out of four but maybe Price does make it through 2. I guess they are both the next injury away from ending a career and the Twins should avoid both. I am finding arguments persuasive that these deals are going to work out pretty badly. I went in thinking the Twins needed to get three established and go with youth on the 5th spot but maybe two is the better plan.
  25. jorgenswest
    I can’t either but I think paying him the 96 is a similar risk to paying what it would have taken to get Bumgarner or Ryu and a better bet than Keuchel. If I was advocating for Bumgarner or Ryu then I need to advocate for Price. The cost of pitching has skyrocketed in salary and the cost in trade and prospects will rise accordingly. The Twins might have the best two deals of the winter in Odorizzi and Pineda but they need one more. On the other hand the comments about Price are persuasive. It might be better to lock up Donaldson and get Walker.
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