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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    It is sorted by fWAR which gives a negative defensive run value for time spent at DH. Sanchez’ actual defense at C has been fine with a slightly positive framing number. The defense runs part of his WAR takes a hit because of time at DH. I wouldn’t have sorted by fWAR when trying to compare catchers.
  2. jorgenswest
    Is there projection forward value in that data?
  3. jorgenswest
    Paddack might get a little time next year but he will be ready to fully return in 2024. At that point it will be 5 years since 2019 and his last successful season as a starter. Is it wise to tender him the next two years on the chance he can find that 2019 form? I would think so but it isn’t a clear yes to me.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am more concerned about the bullpen than first base and Arraez or left field.
  5. jorgenswest
    Mike Clevinger of the Padres had a second Tommy John surgery in November of 2020. He was not ready to return for the stat of the season but did return May 3. A similar timeline for Paddack knocks out next season.
  6. jorgenswest
    I just can’t get worked up over roster moves. The roster is so fluid with injuries. I would expect he goes down and mixes in SS with time at a few other positions and then be back up. Wasn’t it about a week ago every batter on the 40 man roster was on the team? He will be back.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do you have information that the swelling in the knee is not going to improve?
  8. jorgenswest
    He is more ready to help the team than Miranda. He can help by serving in a utility role until Larnach is ready to return. Does he help more than Garlick or Celestino? He does if Correa is needing more rest to manage any return of swelling in his hand.
  9. jorgenswest
    How critical? If they go 10-7 do they become sellers? 8-9?
  10. jorgenswest
    My understanding of the situation is very different. My understanding is that he is hurt. He has hurt his knee. They are managing the swelling by getting him enough rest when needed. If the other option is to put him on the IL to recover I prefer this option. He has had a positive impact on many games since he was injured in Boston.
  11. jorgenswest
    They are managing this current knee injury with this schedule. Since the injury his OPS is over 1000 and he has been responsible for a few wins. It seems like a much better course than to try to fix it with a long stay on IL. I don’t know if this means they need to continue this path through the season. More likely it depends on the swelling in his knee. If it subsides he will play more. If not they need to try to keep him playing 4 times a week.
  12. jorgenswest
    Once we saw Rocco’s quote from Gleeman about the way they are managing the swelling in the knee it made sense to me. Pinch hitting is going to stress the knee. On the nights he needs to manage that swelling he won’t be available in any form. It seems reasonable to wonder why the medical team recommends this path other than an IL stay. I am guessing that he will end up there. Meanwhile his bat (1027 OPS) has won us some games since April 21 when he first returned from injury. It is hard to argue about the part of the plan where he is on the field.
  13. jorgenswest
    Pagán maintained and even improved his command on day 3 of three in a row. Encouraging to see today. A bullpen arm that can go three days in a row without drop off has value.
  14. jorgenswest
    I did find today encouraging. He pitched three days in a row and his command was better each day.
  15. jorgenswest
    Certainly not. Colomé has had a better FIP in each year of his career (including 2022) than Pagán with the exception of 2019. In any given year that sample is small but over the term of several years Colomé has the edge 3.63 to 4.30. If we choose a sample most favorable to Pagán and only use 2019 on it is 3.93 to 4.37. You are right. He is not Colomé.
  16. jorgenswest
    I agree at this point. Let’s get close to the deadline and see where we stand. Maybe at that point a rental will become available at less prospect cost. Maybe Canterino or Balazovic are ready. Maybe they somehow stay healthy. Maybe either Archer or Bundy is pitching really well.
  17. jorgenswest
    The best possible plan is to hire a talented medical team and follow their advice.
  18. jorgenswest
    My understanding of sample size is very different. Strike out rates and walk rates do stabilize earlier but you had OPS in the statement which is SLG and OBP. Those stats stabilize at 320 and 460 plate appearances. A partial season OPS is almost always from a small sample.
  19. jorgenswest
    It was the perfect time to push him and give him a chance to work out of a jam. It was the perfect time to push him towards 50 pitches. He hadn’t pitched in a week. The Twins win probability was 95% when he left the game. Imploding would have been giving Gimenez a center cut pitch to get a strike and watching the ball sail into the right field stands for a three run home run. He didn’t give in and ended up walking him.
  20. jorgenswest
    There have been some takes in a few threads that Jax was left in too long last night and Rocco doesn’t know how to manage a bullpen. I started to reply elsewhere but it fits better here. The Twins need Jax to be an arm that can give them multiple innings and up to 50 pitches. There are many encouraging signs as noted above that he can be that valuable piece. There was another game earlier this year where the Twins had a good lead he was in his third inning and over 40 pitches. In that third inning he loaded the bases and Rocco showed the confidence to let him work out of it. He did. Last night was similar. It didn’t work out as well but Jax needs these opportunities to get better. The Twins have shown confidence in Jax this year and he is earning that confidence. You can’t develop a pitcher if you don’t give them the opportunities to work out of their own jams and pitch through trouble near the end of their pitch count.
  21. jorgenswest
    They traded him at a high point in his value so it was the right time for a trade. That extra half year that didn’t mean anything to the Twins brought that value.
  22. jorgenswest
    Pagán doesn’t walk a tight rope. The Orioles, A’s and an umpire are holding a net for him. He loaded the bases against the White Sox and threw a 3-2 pitch off the corner that was not called a strike all night. There was one very similar pitch by Koepech to Polanco that was called a ball. If the umpire stays consistent and calls it a ball they probably lose that game. Same situation in A’s game but the 3-2 pitch is even further off the corner. Pinder swings. Is there any chance the Astros have someone on their roster who swings at that pitch? In two other games the Orioles and A’s had two runners in scoring position with the Twins holding a one run lead. Does he escape if it is the Yankees? He has made a change since last year. He is staying out of the strike zone where his pitches were clobbered the last two years. The result is more walks. It was a necessary trade off. He gives up too much hard contact when in the strike zone.
  23. jorgenswest
    In a rehab start you can focus on getting the feel of all of your pitches. You don’t have to be all out to win if a pitch isn’t working. You can keep working with that pitch.
  24. jorgenswest
    Two others at different points in their career might be Smeltzer and Woods-Richardson. Woods-Richardson needs to added to the 40 at the end of the season so a push to AAA and an August call up might be reasonable with continued success. An August call up would probably preserve an option use this year. Smeltzer will get a shot at some point. It will be on him to make the most of it,
  25. jorgenswest
    Wrists are so important to hitting. David Ortiz had persistent wrist trouble as a Twin. It would have been reasonable at the time to believe that they would persist through his career. Finding a solution to the wrist has to be priority one. It might mean another lengthy IL stay.
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