jorgenswest

I think they pay the full Price now. 96 million assuming the medical checks out. I would prefer Price than Ryu at 80 million and a lot better than Keuchel. They lose the year at the end of the deal on Ryu but I would rather have three years. Price may make more starts in three years than the oft injured Ryu in four. Is Price more valuable than Donaldson plus the hope in a guy like Walker?

Second base White Sox ranked 8th and Twins 29th according to Fangraphs WAR. They had a net +14 DRS compared to the Twins and 13.2 by DRS. With more Arraez at 2B this year the Twins can only go backwards here. Shortstop White Sox 29th and Twins 30th. The Twins UZR at SS was -15.9 vs. -9.2 for the White Sox. Third base White Sox 3rd. Twins 25th. Keuchel may have disagreed with the opinion that Chicago’s infield defense is worse than the Twins.

Really respect the reply here. Short, genuine and humorous. I don’t find myself as passionate but it captures so well for me the passion of many.

On the 40 man... Pineda would be on the restricted list. During the season he would not count on the 40. I am not certain if he would be on the 40 in the off-season. With Clippard and Romo it seems less likely that Wisler would make the team. He doesn’t have options so at some point they would likely have to DFA him. When they need a spot on the 40 it might be his spot. Harper is a candidate also but his options give him some value as a shuttle reliever.

In the 13 games started by Smeltzer, Dobnak and Thorpe the Twins went 8-5. I think two of those were openers where they went 1-1. It is not as if every single game is dependent on the starter. The difference between Keuchel and whichever of the 4 is most effective may be negligible. In fact since the Twins can roll through 4 pitchers the odds might be that one of them is a match for Keuchel. The Twins need one more playoff caliber pitcher but then I think the are better served giving the rest of the starts to the younger pitchers. The only free agent left that I would trust is Ryu. A long term deal to any other could be years of mediocrity blocking the opportunity to develop pitching in house. Add 1 starter and go with two younger starters until Pineda. The better of the young starters gets the fifth spot or by then maybe Graterol takes over. They need to invest 40-50 starts into those young pitchers.

Small to mid market teams have to develop their own pitching. Cleveland contends and has developed pitchers at the major league level. The Twins need one more starter but they also need to risk handing the ball 40-50 times to their younger near ready starters.

I wonder also. It could be that good but not great relievers go year to year when they get to their 30s. They more often get moved at the deadline. They are more easily replaced so why go two years? Romo and Rodney have moved a few times and I don’t think they are clubhouse trouble.

I think they will acquire one starter and go with two of the younger pitchers until Pineda arrives. I think one will emerge when given the opportunity. I look forward to watching the young pitchers progress.

A little puzzled that the post was quoted and questioned here. I suggested “going to have to make a trade” yet it was asked why is it we can’t trade for a young guy... I think my missing key word is young and if that is the case I agree I should have added trade for a young guy and have them take the next step towards front line starter. I agree that we do not need to trade for an established ace and particularly one in their 30s with decline ahead.

I thought and think now that Odorizzi is as likely a front line starter as Wheeler or Bumgarner. I argued that they were extremes in the number of pitchers faced with Odorizzi at 4 and Wheeler and Bumgarner over 50. Those plate appearance of complete dominance against opposing pitchers added innings to their total, lengthened starts and reduced the number of high stress innings. I don’t know of any is a front line starter but I don’t think that it is universally accepted that a line can be drawn between them. The Twins signed Odorizzi and need one more similar. I think that other is going to have to come in trade or the (unexpected on my part) development of someone in house.

Baseball Trade Values suggests that Lewis, Balazovic and Rooker would be the same value.

Berrios still can become an ace. They need to pay up and extend him.

Hernandez was a rule 5 pick up from the Astros prior to 2018. The 2018 season was a lost season of development stashed on the major league roster. In 2019 he started in AAA and was lights out for 9 starts. He came up in June and had several good outings mixed with a few really bad ones. He has 2 options remaining. He would be a steal in a trade for Jake Cave.

I agree. Unless they sign Cole they have the money to sign a Bumgarner or Ryu and extend Berrios. It will take some of the 2020 budget to get the extensions done.

Can we devote budget in extensions to Berrios and Buxton? They might want to invest into Sano and Rogers extensions also. Get the best pitcher they can and spend the remainder on extending the current players. Berrios is critical here. Pay up this year to lock him in for two additional years.

Chapman is one of the most valuable assets in baseball. The Twins don’t have anyone close to his value. I would love to have his remaining four years of control. The cost would be massive though and I am not sure it is the area of greatest need.

The Twins needed another catcher. Any injury during the season and they would be turning to the 2020 version of Bobby Wilson. They now have options depth in Cave, Wade, Raley, Gordon and Astudillo with additional corner depth near ready not yet on the 40.

If discount means expect fewer innings per start, lower overall strikeout rate and higher overall walk rates then yes every AL team should factor in this discount. He had a 56-1 strike out to walk ratio facing pitchers the last two years. There has to be a discount. A discount is different from a dismiss. I don’t dismiss a pitcher because he is an NL pitcher. The Twins need to sign him. They need another pitcher of the caliber of Berrios and Odorizzi. Wheeler is that caliber.

I hope the Twins sign Wheeler. He is a playoff caliber starting pitcher. I am not convinced he is better than Odorizzi (also a playoff caliber starting pitcher in my opinion). He is moving from a NL pitcher friendly park to Minnesota. It will have an impact on his overall numbers. Here is some data that I am sure some will disregard. The last two seasons pitchers have come to the plate against him 106 times. He has turned 98 of those plate appearances into outs giving up 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 56. In the AL he will face a DH instead. Those additional PAs are going to eat into his innings per start and increase his number of high pitch count innings. In his 5 AL park starts over the last two years he has thrown 28 innings in 5 starts. Those starts were against New York, Kansas City, Chicago, Toronto and Baltimore. The Yankees are awesome but don’t you think he should have been more dominant against the other 4? The White Sox are the only team where he pitched 7 innings. I want Wheeler but I have no expectation that his numbers will be close to his CitiPark numbers. Unless baseball takes some of the life out of the baseball I think we should expect somewhere near 6 innings per start while strikeout and walk rates merge closer together when he isn’t feasting off opposing pitchers. It is very likely that someone will pay a heavy premium for AL performance that isn’t much different than Odorizzi’s. I am kind of hoping that team is the Twins.

An automated strike zone may be further away from the majors than we think. Baseball Prospectus wrote about all of the hurdles before it can be a useful tool. One of the hurdles that had me most concerned is setting the top and bottom of the strike zone. Every plate appearance has a unique top and bottom of the strike zone depending on the height and stance of a batter. Right now two methods have been employed to determine the top and bottom of the zone. “ PITCHf/x originally used poorly paid “stringers” to sit in a dark room under the stands and manually turn a dial to set the top and bottom of the zone on the video image of the batter. Saunders reports that Statcast uses the previous calls of major league umpires to build a database of the top and bottom of the strike zone for each hitter.” The automated zone is a result of the previous calls from human umpires. What happens after a few years and the data of previous calls isn’t available for many batters? Do we go back to humans setting it before each pitch? https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/ I have doubts that Garver will see the automated zone in his career. The Twins would be wise to continue teaching and seeking this skill.

I think the most important skill will be calling a game. Catchers are in a unique position to see what pitches are effective and see better how a batter is responding to a pitch. They need the ability and skill to earn trust from a pitcher so they have confidence in the pitch they are throwing. They need to put in hours of study before each series watching video and learning the trends of hitters. Some will be able to utilize that data much better than others. This skill is more important than framing. Teams that do the best job of assessing this difficult skill to measure will add to their win total.

Your comment had me wondering about playing time calculations and whether they had meaning or changed. I did some searching and reading on fangraphs and shared. I apologize for quoting your post. I think too often a quote is taken as meaning a different point of view. I should have written without the quote. It would be crazy not to want Garver to play more.

I am not sure that steamer is projecting playing time at this point beyond calculating from previous seasons. There will always be a bunch of young players with 1 PA or very few PAs where any value comes from the rate stats. Fangraphs will do custom playing time estimates much closer to opening day.

Do you think the Twins can get much more from shifting? Maybe. That will help. If the Twins had turned balls in play into outs at an average rate it would have been 50 fewer balls in play. If they had a top quarter rate it would have been 80 fewer balls in play. If they were elite and turned balls into play into outs like Houston it would have been 150 fewer balls in play. The numbers don’t quite work because more outs result in fewer opportunities to make other outs. Fewer balls in play also will lengthen starts and ease the burden on the bullpen. Rested pitchers will perform better. Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher. It still has to help when you go from a defense in Pittsburgh that was one of the poorest in baseball at turning balls in play into outs to one of the best in Houston.

The top two teams in defensive efficiency last year were the Astros and Dodgers. The Yankees were 16th but were very good in the playoffs with their roster finally healthy. The Twins ranked 25th. I think defensive efficiency has a solid correlation with wins. It was the Twins weakest facet of their game. The Twins pitchers fared very well in spite of the defense. Defenses that allow more balls to be put in play increases pitch counts and shortens starts adding a cumulative burden to a pitching staff. It has a significant impact on winning games and is particularly critical matching up against good teams. I think the Twins can win the central with a bad defense. I don’t think they will go far in the playoffs unless they can get close to average defensively.