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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I look to statcast and I see more encouraging batted ball data from Kepler than Larnach. I would trust that batted ball data much more to project forward than in season triple slash stats. Kepler’s profile is very different in a positive direction than his data last year.
  2. jorgenswest
    A high leverage reliever is always going to see more high leverage plate appearances than a starter. Last year even in Rogers shortened by injury season it was 99 to Paddack’s 50. This is why the Padres made the deal. Their projection for 2022 improved and the Twins dropped slightly given the uncertainty of their starters. The Twins did improve their team for 2023 and 2024. The analytics say this is a good move. The problem with the analytics is the Twins have Correa for one year. This is the year they should have been all in. Trading your best high leverage arm on opening day is not all in. I was disappointed. I look forward to 23 and 24 and hope the Twins will pick one of those years to go all in. Paddack needs to be a big part of that push.
  3. jorgenswest
    Cotton, Rodriguez, Garlick and Godoy come to mind as adds/drops from the 40 since opening day.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don’t see it the same way. It just doesn’t seem reasonable that the Twins should know how these minor (less than a month) injuries are going to play out.
  5. jorgenswest
    I agree. We should look back multiple years including 2020 when he had Cy Young votes. I also agree about jumping the gun. The Twins saw some reason to sign him and must have felt they could make changes to help him be successful. That takes time. I think there is more to be encouraged about than discouraged in the peripheral data. Without question I am more encouraged by Ryan, Paddack and Winder and I have more faith in Gray. I would still see at least three more starts from Bundy and if that time the xERA and xFIP are well off league average I would move on.
  6. jorgenswest
    I posted this in another thread but it might fit better here to see Bundy in context of the other starters. It is early to project future performance based on the sample. Only Bundy and Ryan have faced over 100 batters. Once they get to the 150-200 range xERA and xFIP will be more useful but they are they best indicators we have early in the season. xERA from Statcast is taken from xWOBA which includes things like launch angle and exit velocity. Here are the ranks. 2.66 Paddack, 2.95 Ryan, 3.03 Winder, 3.39 Bundy, 5.26 Archer, 5.39 Ober xFIP use things like strikeout and walk rate which also stabilize early. 2.90 Winder, 3.19 Paddack, 3.46 Bundy, 3.72 Ryan, 4.19 Archer, 4.44 Ober I would be looking at those numbers in 3-4 more starts.
  7. jorgenswest
    It is early to project future performance based on the sample. Only Bundy and Ryan have faced over 100 batters. Once they get to the 150-200 range xERA and xFIP will be more useful but they are they best indicators we have early in the season. xERA from Statcast is taken from xWOBA which includes things like launch angle and exit velocity. Here are the ranks. 2.66 Paddack, 2.95 Ryan, 3.03 Winder, 3.39 Bundy, 5.26 Archer, 5.39 Ober xFIP use things like strikeout and walk rate which also stabilize early. 2.90 Winder, 3.19 Paddack, 3.46 Bundy, 3.72 Ryan, 4.19 Archer, 4.44 Ober I would be looking at those numbers in 3-4 more starts.
  8. jorgenswest
    Pagán was acquired on opening day. He hasn’t performed well since 2019. I think there is a chance that the Twins can help him return closer to his 2019 form but they did not have spring training to work with him. In 2019 his strike rate was 70% and this year it is 56%. With San Diego he was low to mid 60s. Is the low strike rate in part the Twins trying to make changes in season? Changes are needed. His San Diego performance wasn’t worthy of a high leverage role on a contending team. I am not sure who gets the his high leverage work but I hope they move him to a lower leverage role until he starts throwing strikes.
  9. jorgenswest
    They are all young. They won’t be ready for next year so I agree on the veteran back up. I am uncertain how you came up with the third catcher assessment at this point in their careers.
  10. jorgenswest
    The defense behind him in Baltimore was as poor as any game this season. If we are going to use stats things like strike out rate and walk rate “stabilize” around 170 batters faced. We will see that reflected in is xFIP which is currently 3.46. Launch angle and hit distance stabilize early also. It will be a little longer for exit velocity. His current xERA from statcast is 3.39. Those are the numbers I would pay attention to as he gets to the 8-10 start range if I want to project forward his performance.
  11. jorgenswest
    I haven’t seen him play and the only numbers that might be useful In this size sample is strike out rate. His strike out rate is around 15%. That doesn’t seem worrisome.
  12. jorgenswest
    Sano and Garlick could be headed to IL. If that is the case I would still send out Godoy and then recall Miranda. Sands returns to AAA when Gray is ready.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to cut the roster by two tomorrow and the end of the bench is making it a difficult decision. The third catcher will be one move. Godoy hasn't been given a chance to stay. The other cut might be an outfielder. Can you send down Garlick after he hits two home runs against one of the best left handed pitchers in the league? Larnach has made some plays in the field and looks better at the plate. Do you send down what appears to be the top option against right handed pitching? Celestino provides defense, speed and his at bats have been putting the ball in play this year. With Buxton on the mend again can they send out Celestino? They could go to 13 pitchers. Sands could go down after two days on the roster. I thought they might need to have him ready behind Winder's start. Jax's slider looks like a major league pitch. As I write this Stashak had a clean fifth inning against the Rays and has looked better his last two outings. Do you send down Sands in a temporary move? Another decision will need to be made when Gray is ready. They could put someone on the IL. Buxton? Hope not. Sano? He is playing today. A pitcher? A few hours ago I had Garlick going with Godoy. He has changed my mind. I am keeping Celestino too. He provides more on a shorter bench. If it is a bat I think it is Larnach. He appears better but the results aren't there. Arraez might have to get out his outfielder glove and Gordon will get more time. Larnach needs to show a dominant bat because he doesn't do enough else to help. I hope Larnach uses his remaining at bats to change my mind again. Garlick has set the bar high. (edit) Larnach doubles in Celestino soon after I pressed submit. These guys want to stay.
  14. jorgenswest
    I agree. It would replace number 1 for me.
  15. jorgenswest
    Go to 2 catchers. Send out an outfielder. Celestino is a more useful piece in a 3 man bench with his speed and defense. Would you pinch hit Garlick for Kepler or Larnach or Arraez? I am not sure he is a clear upgrade there. If the answer isn’t a clear yes then they need to find a better third man on the bench. As for Kirilloff I think he needs a long enough stay to really get his timing down. He may benefit from an extended stay beyond his rehab days. Perhaps he finds his timing and returns when they have to go to 13 pitchers.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Royals and White Sox have few left handed bats.
  17. jorgenswest
    He didn’t give in but I do wonder if you write the same comment if that last pitch is called a ball and the batter walks.
  18. jorgenswest
    Bullpens need good pitchers. The variance due to small sample in their numbers is not a variance in talent level. As of now I believe Duffey is one of the best 8 talents they have for the bullpen that is sadly lacking in talent. They really needed to add rather than subtract from the pen this off season.
  19. jorgenswest
    They might be able to utilize Pagán situationally. He is not a pitcher you want to bring in with runners on base. He is too home run prone. If they can find situations where he starts innings and has a good match up he could give them some good work this year.
  20. jorgenswest
    There will be movement at the end of the month. It wonder if it is more likely an opportunity to add talent. As for assessing performance I hope everyone will ignore the data in a month sample of major or minor league play.
  21. jorgenswest
    I guess is I am not understanding what is meant by waste. Seems like all teams need to rotate players through the back end of the 40 to manage injuries or pitching needs. It seems quite ordinary to claim a player and then later waive the same player hoping they clear. I am not certain how claiming Cotton in the winter and then later designating him is that different in 40 man roster usage than other teams. Sometimes you claim a guy like Adrianza and he sticks for a few years. I would guess that Adrianza is not the norm.
  22. jorgenswest
    True. They also let him go for a rental DH believing more in there other young pitchers. The challenge is to both identify and develop pitching. Ryan is seen as a back end pitcher that will be too home run prone. Did the Twins see more in him to develop? Since leaving the Rays where he was an extreme fastball pitcher in the minors that mix has changed. Slider usage has doubled and fastball usage is just under 50%.
  23. jorgenswest
    Sanchez looked better at catcher receiving balls than I had expected. Nice job on the end of that relay. He positioned himself well in receiving the ball before the runner. I suppose my expectations were not very high but he didn’t stand out like Astudillo or Pinto have in the past. I am more hopeful that he can be a passable catcher.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Padres improved their rotation for 2022 by replacing Paddack with Manaea. They improved their bullpen by unloading a reliever in Pagán that had been below replacement level the last two years with Rogers at the top of their pen. They will concern themselves with 2023 later. The Twins win projection for 2022 drops with this move. The outlook for 2023 is better. This is a move I would have been behind prior to Correa’s signing. Why not win the Manaea deal with someone like Woods-Richardson instead? That would be the move of a team serious about contending, They could be in the Padres spot with Rogers and Manaea.
  25. jorgenswest
    It is a very misleading stat for set up men. It is possible to come in the 7th or 8th and blow a save even though you were never going to get the opportunity to record the save. Success in those innings is recorded as a hold not a save. We shouldn’t look at the 9 failures without looking at his 63 career holds also. It might be more accurate to say he is 67-for-76 in holding the lead.
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