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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    While I have no trouble finding a “might be” from Reusse i have a hard time finding words from Buxton that indicate he doesn’t want to be here. This is from 2018 after they did not call him up in September. I will take those words as stated without trying to read into them my own biases. Buxton has been fantastic since. There has always been an offer that exists where he would have signed an extension. The Twins haven’t been willing to make that offer instead hoping for something team friendly. The same goes for Berrios. Both are betting on themselves and I think both will win that bet. I would pay for both with 2023-2025 in mind while accepting the reality that the current window has closed and won’t reopen again until the Twins develop their own starting pitching. The two will be the foundation of the next window.
  2. jorgenswest
    One from a Fangraphs chat… Nate Pearson for Berrios. The Blue Jays get 2 shots at a postseason with Berrios plus a comp pick if he leaves (depending on future union agreement). Twins get 6 years of one of the better pitching prospects taking the risk that he follows the Alex Meyer path.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins should trade expiring contracts. They traded two months of Liriano and received a 23 year old Escobar. It took a while to realize that return but he was worth many times the two months of Liriano in a lost season. They traded two months of Escobar in a lost season and Duran is a very good prospect. They also received de la Trinidad who has a .933 OPS in AA. Maciel doesn’t look like he will make it but as a fast athletic centerfielder at 22 there is still hope the bat will develop. If they are presented the option of a younger high ceiling guys a few years away or low ceiling players ready next year I will take the younger players and wait hopefully on the upside. This is a lost season. They need to move the expiring contracts.
  4. jorgenswest
    Buxton. Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins. The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz. if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.
  5. jorgenswest
    Seems like the return is in line. Hopefully with competition for Cruz the return will be more. The most recent trade I found for a possible comp DH is Beltran to the Rangers in 2016. The Rangers parted with more to get him. Two other rental bats that moved in the last five years were Nick Castellanos to the Cubs (return was similar to those above) and JD Martinez (return somewhat better). I am sure the ability to play OF opened up more competition for their services.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins should not pay for his decline. Keep him through age 31 if they want but do not extend. According to baseball reference the most similar pitcher is Sean Doolittle. He was very good through age 31 and mediocre or injured since. The A’s traded him at 30 and got back a good reliever in Treinen and a good prospect in Luzardo.
  7. jorgenswest
    The window for contending has closed. To contend for a World Series they need more pitching than they can afford. Minimally they needs number 1 , a number 4, a closer and two other good bullpen arms. They will also need a bat. I get that they can be competitive next year with less but next year should be about the expected growing pains of a young staff as they transition from the oldest staff in the AL. Extend Buxton and Berrios. Front load if necessary. Go through the growing pains of a young team.
  8. jorgenswest
    They won’t be able to sign him to a fair or reasonable contract. They will need to pay a premium on that fair deal. Berrios’ motivation to sign is the same for any pitcher. Pitchers risk injury that can keep them out of baseball for long stretches. Berrios will have motivation to sign.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to make a very good offer this summer. This will not be a team friendly deal. If he is not willing to deal they need to trade him this summer to maximize the return. The worst case is thinking this year is an aberration and believing 2022 they cabin truly contend for a World Series thereby keeping Berrios for his last season. They are too many arms away from making that happen. Any attempt will result in the signings of several decline phase veterans in hopes of squeezing out one more year.
  10. jorgenswest
    I watched him pitch in the KBO playoffs last year. I would assume the Twins did also. He signed a major league contract to a team looking forward. He may not work out but we need a front office with foresight. We also need a front office that does not factor in the fan base when making baseball decisions.
  11. jorgenswest
    Seems irresponsible on Reusse’s part to report someone might be unhappy. “Might” isn’t news. You can say that about anyone. This lapse in responsibility gets magnified when others cite Reusse’s report and soon the “might” part gets lost in the noise. Reusse knows that. This same article could have been written without citing Reusse’s empty report. I am confident there exists a number that the Twins can offer in an extension that Buxton will be happy to sign. Are the Twins willing to find that number? Would they be wise to do so? I am not certain. If Buxton leaves it will have nothing to do with happiness. It will be because the Twins weren’t willing to find that number.
  12. jorgenswest
    Great performance from Flexen. He was available this winter. While our front office continues to fill the back end of the rotation with decline phase veterans the Mariners found a 26 year old that might help them at the end of the rotation for a few years. We need a front office that can find potentially useful players like Flexen. Anyone can hope on getting another year of back end pitching from Happ or Shoemaker. Neither is more than a one year hope and the problem of the back end persists to the next off season.
  13. jorgenswest
    Simmons has an OPS+ of 93 which is better than his previous two seasons. He is among the best players in outs above average. He is the player they should have expected. They need to find a team looking for a starting shortstop but they won’t have to give him away.
  14. jorgenswest
    They should have a reasonable bar set now for those with expiring contracts. They also need to find a way to get out of Donaldson’s contract and move him before he gets injured again. Will it disrupt team chemistry? Of course. The current chemistry is headed 100 losses, can’t score late in games and can’t close games out.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think it goes back to committing so much of the budget to the lineup with the signing of Donaldson. It put them in the position to roll the dice with Hill, Bailey, Happ and Shoemaker in the rotation as well as the bullpen pieces you cited. They could have kept Sano at 3B and went with an inexpensive 1B in order to put more of the budget into a pitcher or two with a greater likelihood of success. Did they have too much confidence in their ability to identify pitching?
  16. jorgenswest
    Wondering about comparing the age numbers… We’re the numbers you co pared end of season vs. the one month into the season? Would that skew the comparison? As the season progresses I would expect younger players to move up a level pushing down that average age number by seasons end.
  17. jorgenswest
    Wondering about Gordon… Wasn't he also considered a pitching prospect at the draft? His arm must be pretty good for SS. Is it his footwork or his reaction/read time that prevent him from playing a passable SS? His minor league error rate doesn’t seem to be the problem. If he is to be a super utility shouldn’t he be getting time in the outfield as well as 3B in St. Paul? His arm should be able to handle those spots. His speed should work in CF. Reading the ball off the bat and getting the best jump would need a lot of reps that can happen in St. Paul.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Rays have traded solid prospects at the deadline like Jesus Sanchez and Genesis Cabrera in recent years. There will need to be some sense of urgency and demand. Would that urgency be more likely near the deadline?
  19. jorgenswest
    Rogers and Garver are both 30. I would try to sell high.
  20. jorgenswest
    The window has closed. This is the White Sox division. They White Sox lost some key players to injuries but have the depth to win games. I don’t think the 2022 Twins can come close to matching them. The Twins the oldest average pitching age in the AL and the batters are older than league average. If they don’t retool the greatest likelihood is a team that might be competitive in 2002 but not a contender. After losing Buxton, Berrios and Rogers 2023 seems pretty dismal. Trade anyone who they can’t extend on the team for 2023. They also should look to move Garver, Donaldson and Maeda.
  21. jorgenswest
    In this deal they are offloading salary and getting a prospect. I don’t like the prospect but this is a deal for the future. Maybe the 15 million makes it close to wash through 2022 but wouldn’t there be significant offloading of salary for 2023? They may get lucky and Bradley starts hitting at the 800 OPS he had last year. He might turn into another trade for a prospect. Otherwise it is a smaller sunk cost than Donaldson. If the Twins want to get anything in return for Donaldson they are going to need to pay off a good chunk of his salary. The Brewer deal might not be the right deal but any deal is going to look something like this.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would trade Donaldson. A deal where they take on some bad money and send money in exchange for a prospect is feasible. That number 6 ranking for Kelly has to come before TOS. He is not worth the cost now. They are better off with Donaldson. Ashby at number 7 might make sense. This is where we need Falvey’s staff needs to acquire that pitching talent as they did in Cleveland.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think he is reasonably similar to Tyler Austin and maybe CJ Cron. If either was on the left handed side of the platoon they probably have a good opportunity to establish themselves. If you bat right handed and are limited defensively it is hard to get that opportunity. Cron stuck around on the Angels lot get that opportunity before being traded to the Rays for very little. Even a big year in Tampa Bay ended up with him on waivers.
  24. jorgenswest
    In 2018-19 Donaldson had an OPS+ Of 123 playing 64% of the games. In 2020-2021 he has an OPS+ of 117 playing in 60% of games through Friday. It seems like the kind of decline you might expect from age 32 to 35. There will likely be more decline in the next two years. In free agency you buy the decline, Sometimes you pay big for it. Occasionally you get a Cruz who defies it.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to give them both a significant shot in the majors this year. Happ and Shoemaker are not part of the future and they aren’t going to turn this team around in the present. I hope they don’t wait until August before giving Thorpe and Dobnak a regular turn in the rotation.
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