mike8791

Jamie, again, thanx for the writeup! I have one question : on Keith Law's writeup at the Athletic on Twins' picks, except for Lackey, he was decidedly negative on the rest of the top 10 draftees. Care to comment?

Simple. Zoll took over Feb. 1st with the same knowledge everyone else had: the pen was a disaster. The Twins have made one actual trade in the interim - for Nance who was at the tail end of Toronto's pen. Everything else were waiver wire pickups. Is it any surprise our pen statistically is about the worst in baseball? So the fact is that he has hardly lifted a finger to improve a pen devastated in last year's deadline. At least Falvey had made some good trades(Bradley, Abel, Gray, Ryan). Blame ownership on the payroll, yes, but they did not tie Zoll's hands in the trade mart.

I think you nailed it on a key point: this surprising offense is bound to decelerate. You look at the presumed starters and wonder how guys like Clemens, Kreidler, Larnach can maintain their performance given their past history Add in the erratic performances of Lee and Lewis and one wonders who are going to be the run producers in this lineup, especially with the added high probability of Jeffers being traded. As you noted, the rotation is not the strength envisioned back in April. Depth is gone and big questions remain on Ober and Prielipp. If Ryan(assuming he is not traded) and Bradley can maintain their all star performances and Mathews figures out how to keep the ball in the ballpark this will not be a bad rotation, but again, some regression seems more likely. Coupled with a very shaky pen, where only Gomez and Morris seem dependable, overall pitching is not going to carry this team to the playoffs. And how will those two hold up in the heat of a pennant race? Yes, the Twins could remain in "contention" in September but regression to the mean seems more likely, especially with Detroit's strong rebound. If I had some faith in Zoll to succeed at the trade deadline or TP to put money where his mouth is and acquire some major league ready relievers, the outlook could be improved considerably, but realistically, history says otherwise.

If you read my post, I mention getting one reliever who can step in this year as a solid late inning arm better than 6 of our current relief staff and as a potential closer who could step in if Gomez falters - a very real possibility considering his past performance. And, yes, a second offensive addition who is close to ML ready with good potential to slide into the #3 or 4 spot as soon as next year. For trading Ryan, this would be a worthwhile trade both for now and in the future.

There is an unstated unknown here: Is Zoll capable of identifying trade returns who would catapult the Twins into "real contenders"? He is totally unproven, but his failure as GM to trade some obvious excess, e.g., LH OFs, DH ers, and quasi-prospects who have simply not lived up to their potential, for the badly needed decent pen arms that could have made a major difference in pre-AllStar play must raise a giant flag of concern about his abilities. If he holds on to Jeffers at the deadline, this must be considered a black mark. And if he does trade Jeffers and fails to land players who can actually improve the 2026 squad, again, it would raise serious questions about his chops. I won't even address the Ryan trade possibilities for now as that ball is still up in the air at present. But, as others on the board have said, if Ryan is traded it must yield at least two major-league-regulars who can step into the closer role and cleanup hitter, if not both this year, then by 2027.

Given the propensity of Twins to turn hot prospects into ML also-rans, color me sceptical of Marek's/KC's major league success. The even bigger Q : should the presence of either of these 2 affect the Twins #3 draft pick, where two of the three top-rated prospects are SS?

Disagree. In case of Jeffers, for example, Yanks are in desperate need of a C and very well might part with LaGrange who would slot in as the closer. Jeffers might be a two month rental but not to the Yanks who could easily afford signing him to a long term contract. As for a Larnach, Bell or Lewis transaction, I suggested sweetening the deal with one of our top OF prospects not named Jenkins. The chances of both Rodriguez and Gonzales landing a starting position in the OF in the next 1-2 years is minimal w/ Buxton and Jenkins ahead of them, so a trade of one of them is not going to be ruinous to future contention. Of course, this is all hypothetical but a creative GM should be able to land a couple of solid relievers at the trade deadline without impairing future progress.

Theoretically, correct, but Falvey was still there and certainly had some, maybe a lot, of influence.

Spot on, Nick! Only 2 "reliable" options right now. No one else in that bullpen belongs on a major league contending team. After analyzing what's down in the minors, the only way for improvement is via trade. Unfortunately, based on his 5 months as GM, there is little reason to believe Zoll has the chops to make wise trades - ones that can improve the team this year without hurting the longer term rebuild to contention. His continuing dumpster dive into the waiver wire is perhaps a good window into his mindset. No doubt there are trade possibilities out there. The top 2 who could land a late-inning closer are Ryan and Jeffers. More than a reliever would be needed in return but a deal that invoves a top 2B prospect, perhaps a corner OFer with some pop, and an established reliever could lead to a better team even this year. More likely, trading one orb more of our veterans like Larnach, Bell, Wallner. or Lewis might yield a couple of capable arms for the pen. Throw in one of our AAA OF prospects(not Jenkins) and the yield would be even better. Time for Zoll to earn his salary! I'm a big sceptic here - he looks like Failvey 2.0 but one has to hope!

My ideal draft would have Flora as #3 pick for Twins but only if a miracle occurred and the Pohlads committed to resigning Jeffers. Assuming that is not going to happen, then yes, Lackey should be the pick, if available. However, I think odds are less than 50:50 that Lackey will be available, so then we are looking at a choice among Cholowsky, Emerson or Flora. Twins cannot really afford to take a chance on a HS SS, as their window for contention is likely to be open in the 2027-2029 period and its highly doubtful Emerson would be able to contribute by then. So if Cholowsky is off the board, then Flora should be the pick. The real question should be if both Cholowsky and Lackey were available at #3, who should the Twins select.? What a nice option to have!! While the Twins have some highly rated prospects at both positions, it seems with Culpepper and Houston, one of these two should likely turn into a solid major leaguer, while Tait is really the only solid prospect at C, at least for the next 2-3 years. So, in this ideal scenario, Lackey would be the preferred choice. In any case, this will be a fascinating draft!

While Paredes has been a pleasant surprise, let's not get too carried away with his ability to improve the pen. A good reliever must have a much better K rate than Paredes. He might be able to improve his K rate with shorter outings, thereby focusing on using his best pitches more, but he is not going to fill the gaping hole of a late inning reliever. Not to say he couldn't be a long reliever(2+ innings), thereby replacing the likes of Funderburk, Adams, Lawyerson, Orze or Rogers. Morris and Gomez are the only two relievers that can be trusted in tight games. Bring Rojas up and give him a chance to be the third late-inning reliever. Paredes is for mid-relief only.

Seriously, other than seeing the man at some press conferences, saying Twins are not trading Buxton, and living off the waiver wires to churn the bullpen, what has he done in the last 5 months that any logarithm couldn't do? I'm no AI expert, but really any semi-intelligent coder could program a course of action better than we have witnessed from Z-man. Couldn't a coder run thru a daily waiver wire and pick the oldest, most over-the-hill relievers, throw them up against ML hitters and get better results than our aspiring GM? OK, Gomez has worked out and maybe Banda has turned things around a bit, but looking at the garbage heap of signed & released waiver wire pickups this season brings into question if Zoll is a machine or a real baseball guy. After all computers aren't yet able to strategize - a trait that Zoll fits perfectly. I guess we'll learn more come trade deadline, but his lack of results, particularly in the pen where even the most casual fan realized we had nothing going into the season, makes me wonder whether the Pohlads could save even more money(and embarrassment) by dumping Zoll for Chat GPT.

I haven't the faintest idea on the long term merits of KC/Houston vs. Cholowsky/Emerson, but the former duo's high performance at AAA and A+ means they have greater potential to help the major league team in the next 2-3 years than the draft picks. The reason I prefer either Lackey or Flora is both those positions are very problematical currently. With the likelihood of Jeffers being moved by the deadline, the need for Lackey becomes even more pronounced. Unfortunately, I highly doubt he'll fall to #3 which is why I elevate Flora over either of the 2 SS.

I'm sorry, but drafting a SS, epecially a prep, makes little sense for a team that needs to be in contention in the next 2 years. The Twins have 2 highly touted SS prospects in Culpepper and Houston. Yes, the chances are slim that both will emerge as stars but is a 50;50 chance that one will? Lackey or Flora are at positions the Twins sorely need improvement and are much closer to the majors than Emerson. I know the mantra is choose the best player available, but the Twins needs at C and SP are substantial, while maybe not so much at SS. Of course, no one knows how these 4 will turn out, but SS needs rank below C/P if we are to believe all the hype on Culpepper/Houston.

With a 1.56 WHIP and .295 BA against, how in the world is Mathews a potential late inning stalwart.? Yes, his K/9 is good, as is his K:BB ratio., but an effective reliever should at least have a WHIP<1.20 and BAA< .250. No matter how you interpret his #s, there is just no way you can count on this guy. It is a testament to Zoll's ineptness that he has not added at least one stopper-type reliever in the 6 months he has been in charge. Which is why I hope he sits on his hands once more thru the trading deadline for fear he gives up valuable assets like Ryan and Jeffers for more "prospects". I shudder to think what a well-run org. will be able to foist on such a clueless guy.