IndianaTwin

Thanks, Peter. This is a really helpful chart and I join the others who like how you’ve laid it out. It does show graphically how just looking at payroll doesn’t always show a clear picture of how aggressive they’ve been in the offseason. As noted, the expected arbitration raises already create a boost in payroll. If they would spend $20M on free agents, people would describe it as an increase. To compare apples and apples, say they are one-year contracts. Next year, because so many contracts fall off the books, they could spend twice as much on free agents — $40 million — and people would yell and scream about the decrease.

I should have put the “can” in “can be competitive” in italics to emphasize that it’s a viable option. I think you have the right questions in terms of asking whether it’s the best option.

I'd say the same on Larnach as I did on Bell last spring. The Twins can be competitive if Larnach has a similar season and is batting 7th. If he has a similar season and is batting cleanup, it will be hard to be competitive. In a normal offseason, I'd be open/inclined to keeping him or to working at a sign and trade. With the likely accelerated nature of this offseason, if knowing his status earlier allows them to be $6-7M more aggressive in signing a free agent bat who CAN bat cleanup (including Jeffers), I'm more inclined to the non-tender.

Further, I’m skeptical that a salary floor of $170M would go into effect in 2027. A decent number of free agents will have been signed before the lockout. There realistically aren’t going to be enough guys left to get all teams above that mark in the few weeks that might be left before the season starts. IF a floor is established, it seems much more likely to be phased in over a couple years.

Does Peralta provide a reference point? Last offseason the Brewers traded an $8M Peralta with one year of control for Brandon Sproat, who was well-regarded and who turned in a relatively underwhelming 22 starts as a 26-year-old rookie, and Jett Williams, also well-regarded at the time but who has fallen to a No. 10 ranking in the Brewers system. Then in July, the Mets traded an underwhelming Peralta for guys who are now ranked 10, 15 and 16 in the Mets system. If the systems were parallel, that would be like trading for Carson Tinney, Brandon Winokur and Charlee Soto. So how much less did the Mets get for him for two months compared to what they gave up, ostensibly for a full season, in the offseason? Recognize that they could have gotten more for him in July if he hadn’t stunk for four months. I’m not an expert on Mets and Brewers prospects, but it doesn’t seem like he fell thaaaaat far in value from the offseason to July. Aside from the fact that moving him would save me from approximately 94 “trade Joe Ryan” articles on TD, I’d rather roll the dice, improve the team elsewhere and strive to compete.

Thanks. That’s helpful. It being a short list makes it easier to retain people.

Good point. It may not. But I assume teams need to act like it will and the deadline to add is before the December 1 lockout date.

I said “bring them back,” I didn’t say “bring them back in the same position.” I’d liken it to the comment I made on the Josh Bell signing. I said the Twins could be competitive if he was successful and batted seventh, but not if he was successful and batted cleanup. Batting seventh would have required Lewis and Wallner, for example, to have hit well enough to slide him down the lineup. Similarly, I’d say the Twins are probably not going to be successful if Tommy Nance starts the year in one of the highest-level roles. But if Banda starts the season as the No. 6 guy in the pen, that could be a pretty good pen. Similarly with some of the hitters. They are likely not going to be successful starting the season with Lewis playing 1b and batting fifth, for example, but given that Lee serves as a backup shortstop, Lewis as a utility option because they upgraded at 1b and 2b is a different story.

They do count as service time, so he didn’t get penalized in terms of arbitration eligibility, future pension, etc. However, and I just found this out from Dr. Google, days on the IL are excluded from service days for ROY eligibility. A player loses eligibility after 45 days on the ACTIVE roster.

I’m generally with those in favor or re-signing all of them at these prices. But in my mind, the issue that’s bigger than salaries is roster spots. Can they afford to tie up 10 roster spots? So while it’s cool to discuss these, let’s first hash out who needs to be added to the 40-man to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Who are the guys for whom decisions must be made? Also before this is the deadline for a Qualifying Offer. I give it to Jeffers, though I think he declines it, which frees up a spot. (But to add, I’ve hopefully already re-signed Jeffers at 4/$80M, with plans for him to move to 1B/DH as Lackey, et al., bring their talent to Target Field. That adds him back to the 40-man.)

I’ll start by saying I’d love to see them re-sign Minter at a good price. But they have to make a decision on Banda well before a lot of the free agents sign. Admittedly, the lockout may change the calendar of deals this year. But even comparing the two, note that Minter was getting $11 million this year. He might go for less, but I doubt it’s a lot less. If drops to even $8M, I’d still take Banda at $2.3M. As noted in my response to a different post, I think Banda is a no-brainer at that price. Aside from an eight-day period in April, he was one of their best relievers before he went down. But still sign Minter.

Where do you see July on Banda? What I’ve seen has said he’s expected back by the beginning of spring training. It would take quite a delay to push all the way back to July. Unless he’s known to out for a major part of the season, I think he’s a no-brainer. They aren’t going to get a free agent of his caliber at $2.3 million.

Yeah, but if he splits time between 1B and the OF, people will complain about the Twins not putting a guy at a position and letting him stay there. That's sarcasm -- I'm a big fan of positional flexibility. Put me in the camp of those intrigued enough by his past to explore the options. And he's still got an option left, according to Fangraphs.

Two out of their five primary starters this year (admittedly not their best two), plus Foster Griffin, were aquired by trade.

And Bradley, Hoffman, Banda...