IndianaTwin

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I thought of the fact that I hadn't identified someone as a longer relief guy. However, I do think that last year's shorter starts were an injury-based aberration, based on prior years' starter usage patterns when the Twins were more or less at league average. I also considered several other factors. First, I think the overall rotation will be stronger than a year ago, so there will be fewer really short starts. Second, they don't have an Archer in the mix, which was a guaranteed start of no more than five and often just four innings. The possible exception is Maeda. However, if he's indeed not up to a normal starter's workload, he's someone who does actually have the experience of being a several-inning guy in the bullpen. Third, my bullpen has a lot of experience, including guys who are more used to going on back-to-back days than last year's bullpen was. Finally, with the overall strength of this bullpen, they can afford to shift a guy like Jax to being a two-inning guy on occasion. With this year's experience, they couldn't do that, since they couldn't afford to use him up for a couple days.

You did read me correctly, and apparently I've misunderstood that part. With your understanding, plus the $800k from my mistakenly including Cave, I'm adding Fulmer to the bullpen as well.

There are a number of guys, including Pagan, who have no contract information other than the years of control. I see that on other teams as well, and all of them seem to be people who are in the arbitration window. It's not all people in the arbitration window, but there's enough of them that I read it as "incomplete." And I know that being a catcher has value, but it's hard for me to believe that two years of Jansen is worth six years of Lewis or Miranda. I was also basing my comment off this tweet. It's a tweet, so who knows what "far more interest" means, but it suggests that he's seen as having at least some value. I should have been more clear in my original post in saying that it would take more than Pagan, but I'd like to think his inclusion would soften the prospect inclusion need.

I’m going off the word on the street that says teams have expressed interest in Pagan, along with assuming there would need to be some level of prospect inclusion.

Thanks. I knew, but missed that. Guess that frees up a little to make sure Chapman fits!

The idea of taking a shot at an offseason plan is always a fun one. Here's my attempt. As best as I could, I used the arbitration projections cited elsewhere. I also used the free agent projections at MLBTradeRumors as starting points. And I had the advantage of being able to include the Urshela and Farmer moves and other action that's happened to date. First, the sunk costs – options that didn’t get picked up: Bundy $1M, Archer $.75M and Sano $2.75M for a total cost of $4.5M Next is the rotation guys already on the roster – Gray $11.825M, Ryan $1M, Mahle $7.2M, Maeda $3.125M, Paddack $2.4M, Dobnak $1.5M, Winder $0.75M, Ober $0.75M, for a total cost of $28.5M. I’m willing to run with this group of eight, knowing I’ve got Woods Richardson, Varland, Enlow, Balazovic, Henriquez and Enlow in St. Paul. I’ll also grab a couple Aaron Sanchez/Dereck Rodriguez-types on minor league contracts to see if I can catch lightning in a bottle. Relievers on the roster – Duran $0.725M, Thielbar $2.4M, Lopez $3.7, Moran $0.725M, Jax $0.75M, Alcala $0.8M, for a total cost of $9.1M. The close reader will note the absence of Pagan. I’m actually not that averse to keeping him around, but I’m going to take advantage of the rumor mill that says multiple teams expressed interest. Stay tuned. Catcher – Jeffers at $1.3M. We’ll need more, obviously. Stay tuned. Infield – The mixture of Miranda (1b/3b) $0.75M, Farmer (ss/3b) $5.9M, Arraez (1b/2b) $5M, Polanco (2b) $7.5M and Gordon (2b/ss) $0.75M gets us a base-level infield at $19.9M, with Lewis and Lee waiting in the wings. You might wanna stay tuned, however. Outfield – The mix of Buxton $15.143, Kepler $8.5M, Larnach $1M, Kirilloff $1M, Celestino $0.725, Wallner $0.725M and Cave $0.8M gives flexibility at $27.893M. I think Kepler will bounce back and at least one of the Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner trio will fully blossom. Consider as well that Gordon and even Lewis or Lee could fit into this picture as well. And that gives us a total cost of $91.193M so far, with just the need for a catcher, bullpen depth and miscellaneous other improvements. There's really no one on this list that can't DH, so I'm assuming people will rotate through that spot. We’ll start with catcher. The Blue Jays are operating from a position of depth with Alejandro Kirk, mega-prospect Gabriel Moreno and still-young Danny Jansen. It’s also a team that is seeking bullpen depth, so I’m going to offer Pagan for Jansen. It may take a prospect to add to the mix, but I’m comfortable that it won’t need to be a highly ranked guy, so I’ll plug in Jansen at $3.7M, bringing us to $94.893M. I’m still needing bullpen depth, but I’ll first address the elephant in the room – miscellaneous improvements. I give Correa a raise to $35.5M per year for the next four years, with an opt out, followed by two years at $32M with another opt out, followed by two years at $30M. That’s a guarantee of $266M over eight years, but it's front-loaded for him and gives him the ability to opt out after his age 31 and 33 seasons, both ages when he’s still young enough to get a six- or four-year deal. With his $35.5M for 2023, our total is $130.393M as we head to the bullpen. I’ve always had a thing for David Robertson, and he proved me right this year. He’s served as a closer and as a setup guy in the past, and I offer him the 2/$16M MLBTR suggests. I’m generally skeptical of big contracts to relievers, but seeing Kenley Jansen at 2/$26M is too good to pass up. That pushes the budget up to $151.393, but I’ll have a bit of savings in that I’ve got dollar figures attached to 30 guys. Though all 30 guys will see MLB time at some point, several of them won’t get the total listed here, since they’ll spend some time in the minors. I figure that’ll save a couple million. And as it turns out, I’ve got a March birthday, and the bosses give me a birthday present. On MLBTRs list, they’ve got dollar values assigned to nine relievers, with an annual salaries of $4.5M at the bottom. In their list of “honorable mention,” they’ve got Michael Fulmer, Craig Kimbrel, Seth Lugo, Matt Moore and Matt Strahm. If any of them don’t get a major league deal, I give them a minor league contract with opt-out dates and an incentive-based contract. And the birthday present gets even better – to me, the most conspicuous name that’s missing from MLTTR's article is Aroldis Chapman. Seeing him unsigned, I give him a $3M guarantee with incentives and look forward to him slamming the door in Game 7 of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium. Chapman’s $3M balances the bit of savings that’s in guys who’ve been optioned, and leaves me with a budget of just over $150M, but when the higher-ups think about adding Chapman, Jansen, Robertson and a veteran on a minor league contract to a bullpen that already has Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran, they say “Go for it” and give me a $300 bonus gift certificate to spend in the team store. But alas, that’s still not enough to get one of the new jerseys. I liked the old ones better anyway.

Ryan went 7.0 on 4/27, but yes, the 7-inning starts of Gray (5/24) and Smeltzer (5/26) came in the latter part of that first window. I also saw at least two other games where the starter pitched into the 7th, but didn't complete it. So, out of the first 50 games, Bundy went a full 6 twice and into the 6th twice more in his eight starts. Ryan went 7 once. 6 thrice and into the 6th once in his eight starts. Smeltzer went 7 and 6 once each and into the 6th in his four starts. Gray went 7 once and 6 twice in his seven starts. Ober went 6 in one of his three starts before getting hurt. Paddack went into the 6th twice in his four starts before the one in which he got hurt, though he didn't finish the inning either time. The exception was Archer, for whom the plan was not to go long, at least in the early part of the season. And as they've said in the offseason, the intent was to gradually stretch Archer out as the season went along, but he wasn't able to do so. But of the 41 non-Archer games, the starter finished 7 three times, finished 6 nine times, and went into the 6th six times. I didn't count the number of starts that went exactly 5, and there were a few where the guy was pulled earlier because of injury or getting shelled. Among other things, that means they finished at least 6 innings on 12 of the 41 non-Archer games and attempted to do so another 6 times. To me, that's enough to suggest that they wanted guys to go through six or even seven. And I didn't check this, but it sure seems like that's a higher percentage of longer starts than we saw later in the year, which is part of my point -- that they made a mid-season adjustment. Additionally, remember that the beginning of the year was also when they were using a 10-man bullpen, so they had additional bullets to use at the first sign of trouble. And for better or worse, they hadn't lost trust in guys like Duffey, Smith and Pagan yet, so they thought they were going to a strong bullpen when they pulled the starter. Alas, not so much. I didn't look at pitch counts, but I'd suggest that having a 10-man bullpen available was also a factor in not extending guys beyond the counts you reference. But thanks for your response and pushing back a bit. I didn't name this above, but I think we'll have a better feel for whether "short starts" is "The Plan" when we see how they shape the staff this offseason and then play into the new year. As I look at their prior years' history, when they were generally around the league average, it feels as much like a one-year aberration as it does an ongoing trend.

Concur. MLBTR has Rodon at 5/$140M, or $28M/yr. Using MLBTR's estimates further, I'd rather spend roll with the starters we've got and spend $28M on Kenley Jansen (2/$26M), David Robertson (2/$16M) and either Adam Ottavino or Chris Martin (both at 2/$14M).

Los Angeles de Los Angeles.

Reserving judgment is not allowed on TD. Around here, we go ahead and declare the offseason an abject failure if we haven’t addressed all needs by Thanksgiving. /s

I’ll long remember driving down Interstate 57 in central Illinois, windows down on a beautiful summer evening, and the yell I let out when Sano hit the homer against Cleveland. Folks from several exits away reported hearing loud noises in the distance. Okay, maybe not that last part, but I’ll put that blast alongside Puckett’s homer, Larkin’s single, the 3-2-3 double play, and the Darrell Evans pickoff on the short list of most memorable plays in my nearly 50 years as a Twins fan. For the joy of that night, I can forgive an awful lot of strikeouts.

A few years ago, I bought a home plate from a sporting goods store and then worked with a local screen printer to have the words "Welcome to our home!" applied on it. At our previous home, it served as part of the welcome mat. Now it's on the wall in our entry hallway, surrounded by photo collages I made of the MLB stadiums I've been at. I don't know of this being available anywhere on-line, but if you've got the time, it was pretty easy to pull off, and it would make a nice gift.

Paddack can be put on the 60-day IL at the beginning of spring training.