IndianaTwin

Actually, for his career, his OPS has only declined from .742 to .721 from the first half to the second. Last year it actually improved from .742 to .769. This year seems hard to predict since there will be a large gap between the first and second half. I think this year his second half performance will be less affected by fatigue and more affected by whether or not he is fully recovered from the hand injury.

It’s hard to compare Jeffers to these because the Raleigh and Smith contracts each include the buying out of arbitration time. Realmuto and Perez are both past-their-prime contracts that likely come with some sort of hometown discount. In the case of Raleigh, for example, the AAV is only $17.5M, but the three years of free agency that have been bought out are at $24.67M. Those will be for his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons. Similarly, Realmuto received $23.875M in his 31-34 seasons. With Jeffers entering his age 30 season, I think the figures you are coming up with are way too light. I think he would easily get 3/$60M in his age 30, 31, 32 seasons. This also makes me think that a) it is unlikely he would take the QO and b) very likely that he would get the more than $50M in total that gets the higher supplemental pick (unless that is affected by CBA changes). If he would take the QO, I think it would be a very small overpay at most and it would only be for a single year.

Brace yourself for the "Disagrees," because you are going to get them. I sure have when I've broached the idea of a QO on Jeffers. 😀 But you won't get one from me. Again, I don't think it's a slam dunk to give him one, but we're on the same page here as well in at least considering it. Let's say $16M is the "right" amount for a one-year deal on a catcher of Jeffers' ilk. I think it's really hard to have a competitive team without having an overpay somewhere. It's just impossible to get all 26 contracts right. Right now, the Twins don't have any overpays, unless you count the money they are eating on Correa. In fact, they have a bargain in Buxton, a fair-to-bargain deal on Lopez if he comes back healthy, a fair price on Caratini and everyone else on arb or pre-arb contracts. So if you are going to make an overpay to get/keep someone, overpaying $7M for one year on one of the best-hitting catchers in the majors seems like a good place to do it. That's if he takes it. If he doesn't, we don't know what a new CBA will do to the concept of comp picks, but in the current structure, there's a pretty decent chance Jeffers signs elsewhere for more than $50M total. Again, I may be underestimating Jeffers' worth, but I'm not sure a comp pick is much of a downgrade from what they will get for 33 games of him in a trade (see previous note for the explanation on why I say 33 games). I'm not sure they can make the decision to make a QO on Jeffers before the trade deadline, but you also have an interesting point that his saying "yes" would change the calculus on Caratini's (or even Jackson's) availability to other teams in the offseason.

It's easier to quote this one again than to go back to your previous. 😀 But from that one, I also concur that if they are even anywhere close, trading Ryan would be a huge mistake for the reasons you name. And on your last comment in that one about the other guys they might trade being low wattage, I agree there as well. I'd perhaps even put them in the same category as my comments on Jeffers in the previous, where the message it would send by trading really any veteran may not be worth the Single A guy they are going to get for Rogers, Bell, et. al. You mentioned 22 games until the deadline. If they go something like 7-15, maybe I change my tune. But if they are even 9-13 and still within four games or so, I'm rolling the dice on 2026.

Concur. And to circle back to your previous post, which I think is excellent, the sentence I bolded here is part of why I'm not that gung-ho on trading Jeffers. I get the argument about trading him so he doesn't walk away for nothing. But..., I'm not so sure that's still the right thing to do. First, maybe I'm underselling things, but I'm not sure how much they are going to get for Jeffers. The Yankees are public in their desire for a catcher, but most contending teams have their catcher situation in a good spot. That's not to say that Jeffers wouldn't still improve nearly all of them, potentially even by adding him to their DH rotation, but a lot of teams are reluctant to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at this point in the season. Additionally, the deadline is a little later this year -- the Twins have only 49 games following August 4. I'm assuming others have similar numbers. Even if he plays two days of three, that's only 33 games. You just don't get as many games out of a new catcher's bat as you do out of a new guy at another position. I get that in a postseason he could conceivably play more than two games out of three, but you also have to get there. So what would the Twins actually get for Jeffers? For high-end relievers with many years of control (Duran, Jax), they got a couple of highly regarded prospects, including one starter that was ready or nearly MLB ready in Bradley and Abel. But I don't see a contending team giving up a controllable reliever that's helping them this year for 33 games of Jeffers. Again, maybe I'm underestimating, but I'm not sure they even get a single top 100 guy for 33 games of Jeffers. And I don't want a AA guy for him -- I want someone who is very likely to help in 2027. Otherwise, roll the dice and play for 2026. Second, though Caratini and Jackson are two good vets (sorta, in Jackson's case), having a veteran catcher like Jeffers also helps in the development of young pitchers such as Bradley, Prielipp, Rojas, Adams, Peredes, Morris... Combine those and it makes me wonder if a) his contribution to pitcher development over the remainder of the season and b) the message to the team, "We're going for it in 2026 by keeping Jeffers," might do more for their 2027 chances than the AA lottery pick they might get for him. Third, if they are serious about trying to bring him back, I think they have a better chance of resigning him by saying, "Dangit, we don't want you to even smell what it's like being in another team's locker room -- we want you with us, giving us a shot and furthering relationships with our young pitchers" than they do by saying, "Good luck in New York, but we'd sure like to have you back if you're open to it." I'll get the logic if they trade him, but I don't think it's a slam dunk to do so.

This is a Bryant thread, but here's some quotes from a Dan Hayes article in The Athletic today: Though Ryan thought he might be traded during the offseason, there were no second thoughts about rejoining the Twins. Once he returned, Ryan was going to make the most of this situation and let it all play out. Thus far, Ryan is starring for the Twins and providing a much-needed ace in the wake of Pablo López’s season-ending injury. But even more than just doing his part on the mound, Ryan has invested in this team both publicly and behind the scenes. ...Ryan would love nothing more than to help convince the front office to add and give this team a chance down the stretch. Adding Sonny Gray and whatever flame-throwing relief pitcher is available would be just fine. The current conversation [about the Twins being buyers] is far more appealing than one where the focus is on potential trade destinations for Ryan — and it’s one he’s helping drive. ------------- There was a narrative on TD that Sonny Gray "wanted out" because he had a couple outbursts in the heat of competition that demonstrated his intense drive. During more mellow times, however, he spoke glowingly about his time with the Twins. Similarly, Ryan's outbursts have been at times when he was communicating confidence in his ability and a desire to stay in the game. The observations from the Hayes article don't sound like they are coming from a player feeling like bridges have been burned. I, too, hope they find a way to get an extension done. FWIW, a 28-year-old Lopez signed a four-year extension when the team still had one year of control. This offseason, Ryan will be a entering his age-31 season with the team still having one year of control. Comparing the two, Lopez had had more sustained success at the time, whereas Ryan has had a higher peak. Potentially, Lopez could have been okay with the four-year extension, knowing he would still be a free agent entering his age 33 season, but I think the two situations have some similarities. If Ryan lets things play out, he takes the risk of going on the market entering his age 32 season, already likely on some level of decline. Some team might throw six or seven years at him, but those are getting less and less common. I really wonder if an extension that buys out his final year and gets him four more at an inflation-adjusted price point similar to Lopez might get it done. (Part of the inflation adjustment is that Skubal's arbitration win this past year could well push Ryan's arbitration ask well above what Lopez had gotten for his last year of control.)

Let's hope for inverted line scores, where the Twins end up with 6 runs, 8 hits and 0 errors and Cleveland ends up with 0 runs, 8 hits and 6 errors, for example.

Thanks. Definitely some intrigue here. With 2027 control, I'd be surprised if Finnegan is available to a division rival. I've liked Vest in the past, but he's been bad this year. I wonder if the Twins would want to give something to a division rival. Weaver was near the top of relievers I would have targeted in the offseason. Ditto on Yates. Yes, please, on both, but particularly on Weaver. I've always liked Minter. Yes, please. Those would be my three biggest targets. Jansen has been inconsistent, but he definitely brings swagger.

Welp, here goes Jim Bowden again... "...if I were [the Twins], I would see what I could get for Joe Ryan, Taylor Rogers, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, Tristan Gray, Victor Caratini and Josh Bell. I would even talk to Byron Buxton to see if he would waive his no-trade clause if I could deal him to either the Braves or Yankees. Ryan as the "best fit" for the Braves, Lewis for the Marlins, Jeffers for the Yankees. His next paragraph is on the Royals. I'm surprised he didn't mention that Witt could get them a haul.

Particularly given that with any of these who are pending free agents, we're looking at barely a third of a season if they wait all the way to the deadline. Jansen's $11M contract, for example, is already less than $5M and trickles down even further over time. You've apparently looked at the contracts enough to call them "expensive." Is Jansen's the largest in this list? Who else is up there? (I'd add that Jansen hasn't exactly been Jansen so far this year. He'd still be a significant add, however.)

For the upcoming games, MLB.com lists Prielipp as the starter for Wednesday.

Which is why we shouldn’t trade Ryan. To that list on the position side add Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Bradley, Prielipp… The bullpen isn’t there yet, but if each month of this season solidifies one bullpen spot and the year ends with five or six guys slotted in, that’s a pretty good start to the offseason.

FWIW, when I looked at the Orioles transactions, I remembered that they did the same with Dylan Beavers.

ABs is the other part of the calculation they'd have to manage. It looks like Basallo played 31 out of Baltimore's last 39 games and they kept him to 109 at bats. With 21 more at bats to play with, they could have played him another four or five games and gotten to 35 or 36. It also looks like they exclusively batted him 5th or lower, which saves a few ABs, Basallo is a catcher, so that in itself necessitated a few days off, though he also played 1B and DH. The Twins have 39 games (plus any rainout makeups) in the last 45 service days. By similarly batting Jenkins lower in the order, they could probably start him in 34 or so games and be okay. Or a couple fewer and use him as a defensive replacement. If they are going to play the game, I'd call him up on the mid-August date. At that point in the season and in his development, I think some days off where he's sitting in the dugout beside Buxton are more valuable than an extra week in St. Paul. I also think it's a game worth playing. There were a couple other teams that did it -- I just remember Basallo because he was on my fantasy team and I was sending emails to manager@baltimoreorioles.com every day, with the subject line "Promote Basallo." They were pretty open in July already saying that's what they were planning, however. If this stays as part of the new CBA, I think more and more teams will do it. (Aside -- I'm positing this in a Jenkins vacuum. I echo DJL's point in saying that promoting Roden and Rodriguez are higher priorities because of the factors he identified.)

There's a new(ish) calculation in the mix. Under the current CBA, teams get an extra draft pick if a player is on the roster the entire season and wins Rookie of the Year. That means it potentially benefits teams to make sure that a highly regarded player doesn't lose rookie status. One of the ways a player loses rookie status is by spending more than 45 days on the active roster. Last year, for example, the Orioles brought up Samuel Basallo about 20 minutes after they reached that point in the season. Unless he comes up very soon for significantly extended run, it's likely he won't come up before the point at which 45 days of service time remain in the season, which is something like August 14.

Exactly. Any team looking to add Larnach/Bell/Wallner to help this year's team isn't going to trade away an MLB reliever.

Another way of viewing consistency is on the bottom end. The Twins have been shut out only twice on the season, the Yankees (second in runs scored) five times. The Twins have scored three or fewer only 30 times, the Yankees 32. Said the other way, the Twins have scored four or more runs 57 times, the Yankees 52. (The Twins have played two more games, but they have scored four or more in 65.5 percent of their games, the Yankees in 61.2 percent.) I only compared them to the Yankees. Perhaps there's an easy way to compare them to the whole league, but I didn't see it. But I'd say they've been just as consistent, potentially more so, than the other team in the league most likely to claim A-level offense.

Also, The Athletic posted its analysis of which teams will/should be buys and which sellers. They call the Twins' biggest needs "SP/OF." Um, I'm viewing their biggest need a little differently....

If the name of the game on offense is scoring runs and the team is leading the league in runs scored, what is required to achieve an A?

I was pleased with the Banda signing. His overall stats are massively affected by an eight-day stretch in April. Other than that, he's been quite good. Hayes hints at him being a non-tender candidate, but I think he's a no-brainer to bring back if he appears to be healthy by November. With missing quite a bit of time, his salary won't increase much.

Here's the quote and following sentence from Dan Hayes' article... “I got asked about this a month and a half ago, the vibes here,” said Bell, whose two-run homer opened up a 4-1 lead in the sixth inning. “I was like, ‘Let me feel it out. It’s still early.’ This team really vibes well with one another. It’s a lot of fun. I’ve been on a lot of different teams that have cliques, little falling-outs across the course of the season. This team is definitely the closest one I’ve been on. I feel like Buxton obviously has a lot to do with it, someone who’s been here and set a foundation for the guys. It’s been a lot of fun to play on this team for sure.” Monday afternoon wasn’t particularly upbeat for the Twins. This is a close-knit team that banded together early after repeatedly hearing about being undermanned and facing low expectations... Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Hayes one of the most consistent voices calling the Twins undermanned?

Someone is going to reference trading Jeffers. This isn't intended as a leading question, but what does 50 games of a good catcher on an expiring contract actually get a team? I don't recall many catchers of that ilk getting traded at recent deadlines. It seems like good teams usually have their catcher situation settled and contending teams don't tend to want to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at that point in the season. Can someone recall recent trades that have had a catcher as the centerpiece?

I don't see the next few weeks as having a dramatic effect on the direction they go at the deadline. Or at least I hope it doesn't. Anything this year is bonus. But with a) a potentially outstanding rotation and b) an offense that is at the top of the AL in runs scored, potentially has reinforcements in-house and is losing very little, 2027 is very much in play. Whether they play 10-17 or 17-10 between now and the deadline, I'd like to see the response be the same -- tinker. Don't trade anything that is a part of 2027, trade minimal expiring assets (i.e., Bell, Rogers). If you can get something for the latter, great. But if not, ride the wave, etc. I think "going all in" and trading future assets for this year or "going total selloff" would both be mistakes.

Addendum to the previous: I like that rotation. Then add Lopez (and Abel?) and that's a top tier rotation for '27. Please don't trade Ryan (unless it's for something like seven established MLB relievers 🤣).

If the desire is to slip in a few extra days in Prielipp's schedule from time to time, with off days on Thursday and next Monday, they could consider skipping him to bring Ryan back on Sunday. RECENT -- last Wednesday: Ryan Thursday: Off Friday: Bradley Saturday: Paredes Sunday: Prielipp Monday: Matthews ---------------------------------------- TONIGHT -- Tuesday: Ryan (5 days off) Wednesday: Bradley (4) Thursday: Off Friday: Ober/Paredes (IL/5) Saturday: Matthews (4) Sunday: Ryan (4) Monday: Off Tuesday: Bradley (5) Wednesday: Prielipp (9) Thursday: Ober/Paredes (5) Friday: Matthews (5) Saturday: Ryan (5) Sunday: Bradley (4) And then they could pretty much jump in wherever they want after the All-Star Break, since everyone has at least four days. Even if they started with Prielipp (and I doubt they would), he'd have eight days rest. This approach also allows Ryan to pitch on Saturday heading into the break rather than Sunday, so he'd actually get to pitch his well-deserved inning in the ASG.