IndianaTwin

It looks like the "Free Agent" team is a strong candidate to win it all. They've got 162 fWAR, more than thrice the Dodgers. Of note is that they project Jeffers at 2.3 and Carson Kelley at 2.0 among free agents. Adding some time at DH, they have Jeffers (2.5) as the fifth-best hitter among free agents, a tick ahead of Arozarena (2.4). They also have Caratini at 2.1, so there's also that in the projection...

Which makes me wonder how accurate the $5.1M is. I get that MLBTR is often pretty good and we don’t have a better reference point, but I’m struck with how many people are treating this salary as gospel. I’m also struck with how similar this was to a year ago when the discussion was about Larnach, who was coming off a 0.2 bWAR year. The TD braintrust seemed to be about 90 percent on non-tendering. Now much of the discussion seems to be trending that way on a guy with a 0.8 bWAR and who has always been considered more talented.

Per MLBTR: "Pagán’s deal is for $11.5MM plus a bonus clause, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer." (Emphasis mine.) So, yeah, slightly better deal.

Not to mention that Detroit is a better place for fly ball pitchers than Cincinnati. Also: Little Caesar’s > Skyline Chili (which is more a reflection on Skyline Chili than on Little Caesar’s).

One or the other seems likely to be correct. I predict he either will get traded or he won't.

Case in point on the bolded comment -- Tommy John's numbers are close in themselves, but I've long argued that being the pioneer (and eponym) for the surgery should be enough to get him over the top for inclusion in the HOF. Frankly, it's not unusual for writers to even use the word "pioneer" in talking about him.

Bostock was one of my favorite players -- as a kid still learning the economics of baseball, that was a a particularly painful trade. He was an early thought, but since he only had three seasons with the Twins he only got to 10.3 bWAR, which left him well outside the top 28. Doing "supernova" at a franchise level is kinda tricky, because his death was after he left the team. He clearly had not fallen off the map in his year with the Angels. Herr. Um, well short of the top 28. But similarly, I considered including a Ron Davis snark comment in the article.

Yes. The five weeks or so of time in the majors were worth more than having availability to play minor league games during a lockout. And in terms of access to medical staff, if they are dealing with any health concerns at present, the Twins staff is having very active conversation with the player's personal trainers, etc., to make sure that protocols are established and followed. It's in both the player's and team's best interests to be overcommunicating on this kind of stuff at this juncture and in the coming weeks.

I don’t think 3/$45M will come close to getting it done. No matter what we think he’s worth or not worth, there will be at least one team willing to offer a) a fourth year; b) more than $15M AAV; c) or both.

But when they get one and go to a five-man infield full time, any fly ball pitchers are going to struggle.

Some have framed it as making a longer-term offer to Jeffers with the assumption that he'd be moving to 1B/DH by the end of the contract, which I think at least makes sense in the context of the "bridge to Lackey" concept. When I looked at baseball-reference, I also saw that one of the four seasons in the Contreras equation was 2020, so it's really comparing his 3.375 seasons to Jeffers's four. That points to the reality of Contreras having caught a higher percentage of his team's games in those season. I do think the 4/$75M is a better guestimate than the 3/$45-ish that others have suggested. As to whether or not I want the Twins to take part, it really has to do with how they are thinking about the rest of the budget. People are comparing a few statements from Tom with the teams' recent history, when in reality none of us knows the answer to that question. If the supposed increase is to $130M, then they need to be more judicious and Jeffers is a tighter fit. If the increase is such that it will allow for a modest overpay for a slot or two, then I'm more on board with catcher being a place for that, given the overall shape of their roster and their potential inhouse replacements.

From the MLBTR article explaining their 4/$75M projection: If this number seems high, consider that the .254/.342/.440 slash Jeffers has posted in 1632 plate appearances since 2023 is a near-mirror image of the .249/.349/.467 line posted by Willson Contreras in 1604 plate appearances across the four years that preceded his own free agency. He landed five years and $87.5MM — with similar defensive concerns and a qualifying offer. Our prediction here is that Jeffers will land a bit shy of Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM deal but a bit north of the $73MM Yasmani Grandal received in 2019. Based on that, it seems Contreras and Jeffers do compare. Additionally, MLBTR also didn't include any allowance for inflation. The QO has gone up, what, 15 percent in the past three years? If that's a proxy for overall salary inflation, Contreras's deal moves to the neighborhood of 5/$100M. Contreras was also two years older at the time than Jeffers is now.

Careful. We've been told there would be no math. 😀

They've also been in the ballpark in prior years. I think the 4yr/$75M is much closer to what he'll get than the 2yr/$30M that the person from Fangraphs suggested. From their article: If this number seems high, consider that the .254/.342/.440 slash Jeffers has posted in 1632 plate appearances since 2023 is a near-mirror image of the .249/.349/.467 line posted by Willson Contreras in 1604 plate appearances across the four years that preceded his own free agency. He landed five years and $87.5MM — with similar defensive concerns and a qualifying offer. Our prediction here is that Jeffers will land a bit shy of Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM deal but a bit north of the $73MM Yasmani Grandal received in 2019. And to add, the comps with Contreras and Grandal don't include any inflation.

Not necessarily. They aren't precluded from negotiating with him on a longer deal.

Exactly. Broadly speaking, there are three types of free agents: Guys you know would decline the QO: Skubal, etc., if he were eligible to receive one. Guys who aren't even a question on the other end: Martin Perez, etc. Guys in between: Jeffers, etc. With those, if you make the offer, you'd better at least be willing to have them accept.

The history of injuries for catchers is part of why he WOULD want to turn down the QO. He knows he's entering free agency as a healthy 29 year-old. By waiting, he's guaranteed to be 30 next year and not guaranteed to be healthy.

It bears repeating.

And... Joel Sherman just reported that the Twins did indeed extend the QO.

And said on multiple occasions that he would have been glad to return to Minnesota.

Actually, if you read further in the article, teams DO forfeit a pick if they sign a free agent who had received (and declined) a QO.

Bichette is only a free agent if he declines his option. With the season he had and the uncertainty of a potential lockout, it’s hard for me to see him turning down two more years at $42M AAV. EDIT to add: Bichette has indeed declined to opt out.

@Cody Christie introduced us to The Sporting News’ “re-imagined approach” for ranking the all-time great players in baseball history. Over the past while, he’s been summarizing their approach and identifying his Twins picks for the various categories. In a nutshell, TSN sifted through more 500 players to pick their 140 greatest of all time. Then, they developed “14 positionless rooms, each representing and articulating varying archetypes of greatness.” From there, they divvied up their 140 players into the 14 rooms of 10 players each. See https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/baseballs-greatest-players-140-legends-ranking-all-time/3ac12078b02dd7d36c223aee I didn't want to let Cody have all the fun. So I decided to take a shot at it, and it’s harder than it sounds. In some cases, a player might be ideally suited for one room, but he also fits in a room where there is a paucity of candidates, so I needed to use him there. Additionally, I made a significant departure from Cody’s methodology. TSN chose its 140 greatest players and then divided them into rooms. To match Cody’s approach of two players per room, I only considered the top 28 players in Twins history (using bWAR). That meant some players who seem like perfect fits for a room got left in the foyer because they didn’t make the top 28. For what it’s worth, there are 18 hitters and 10 pitchers with a bWAR of at least 18.4. Conveniently, there is a decent break point in the totals, with Shane Mack at 19.6, Joe Nathan at 18.4 and then a drop to Greg Gagne at 17.9. The first pitcher to be excluded is 15.8, so there’s a difference of 1.7 bWAR between the last hitter included and the first excluded and 2.6 between the last pitcher included and first excluded. So here’s my list. To give a sense of what the category is looking for, I provide a few words from TSN’s descriptors, along with their choice of a person to whet our appetites. Not as comparison to my list, but for Twins context, I’ve listed Cody’s choices as well, followed by my choices and rationale. If one of Cody choices is outside the top 28, he has an asterisk to note that he wasn’t eligible for my list. Those in my house but not his are indicated with a pound sign Inner Circle: TSN: The greatest baseball players who ever lived. Willie Mays. Cody Choices: Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew. IT Choices: Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew. As the greatest Twins who ever lived, I had to start here. And according to bWAR, the choice is clear. Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew. Immortals: TSN: Shattered barriers, inspired millions. Their imprint endures. Jackie Robinson. Cody Choices: Kirby Puckett and Joe Mauer. IT Choice: Joe Mauer and Bert Blyleven. After the Inner Circle, Immortals feels like the next-level guys. The Twins version of “immortal” is a retired number. As a kid growing up in the ‘70s, Tony Oliva is my immortal Twin (and my beloved, for that matter), but he so clearly defines the next category I didn’t use him here. Instead, I chose Mauer and Blyleven. Historians will reference the Twins of the early 21st century as the “Mauer Twins.” And Blyleven’s aura lives on. He came up as a youngster to help some of the best early Twins team and then returned to help win a World Series. And it doesn’t hurt that he also lived on in the broadcast booth. That makes them both immortal. What-ifs: TSN: Shaped by circumstance. Legendary careers whose legacies hinge on an overriding factor. Mickey Mantle. Cody Choices: Byron Buxton and Justin Morneau. IT Choice: Tony Oliva and Byron Buxton. I said above Oliva defined a category. I never got to see him in his prime, but “What if” Tony O hadn’t gotten hurt? “What if” an aging Oliva batted behind Carew in 1977? How many RBIs would that have generated? Without the knee injury, he’d likely have made the Hall of Fame in the 1980s, rather than waiting until the 2020s. Standing just outside the Inner Circle, this was one of my easiest fits on the list – the dictionary definition of “what if” has a picture of Oliva. And one only needs to read TD for a week or two to understand why Buxton is the other fit here. Given that Buxton is already ninth among Twins hitters in bWAR, what if he played in even 90 percent of the Twins games over the years? Where would he be then? Top five or six, that’s where. Showmen: TSN: They commanded the stage. Through bravado and spectacle, they performed when the stakes were the highest. Rickey Henderson. Cody Choices: Jack Morris* and Frank Viola. IT Choice. Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter. Along with the spectacular catches for these two guys, ask Charlie Liebrandt if Puckett commanded the stage. Ask Barry Bonds if Hunter commanded the stage. Enough said. Beloved: TSN: They proved that if you embrace the fans, their love lasts forever. Their greatness was forged through that bond. Ernie Banks. Cody’s Choices: Tony Oliva and Torii Hunter. IT Choice: Kent Hrbek and Roy Smalley#. Hrbek was another easy choice for me. Peter Gammons described Hrbek’s belovedness upon No. 14’s retirement, saying, “If Hrbek had taken care of himself, he could have been so much better. But we wouldn’t have loved him as much.” Later we’ll talk Pariahs. Hrbek might be a pariah in Atlanta, but that’s one of the reasons he’s beloved in Minnesota. Smalley is a bit of a “has to fit somewhere” choice, but I think this works. Coming over in the Blyleven trade, he was immediately liked by Twins fans, perhaps in part because he was the manager’s son-in-law. And then he too came back to help win a World Series. And then he, too, transitioned to the mic, at least part time. Unsung: TSN: Among the greatest ever, though not remembered that way, if remembered at all. Overshadowed and underappreciated. Lefty Grove. Cody Choices: Kent Hrbek and Dave Goltz. IT Choices: Bob Allison and Jim Perry. Allison was another of the easy choices for me. If you asked what hitter should be next to get his number retired, how many people would say “Bob Allison”? And the ’60s Twins of Killebrew and Oliva were really the Twins of Killebrew, Oliva and Allison. Allison is eighth in career bWAR among hitters and rarely gets mentioned in reminiscences on Twins Daily. Much of the same could be said about Jim Perry. He ranks seventh among pitchers, but Camilo Pascual and Jim Kaat are often identified as the standout early Twins pitchers. Very unsung. Juggernauts: They delivered season after season. Their prolonged excellence sets them apart. Oscar Charleston. Cody Choices: Jim Kaat and Bert Blyleven. IT Choices: Brad Radke and Jim Kaat. Juggernauts and Stalwarts seem pretty interchangeable, and I could easily swap these names with the next, though I considered Juggernaut a stronger category. With his long and steady career, Radke personified prolonged excellence, resulting in being second among Twins pitchers in bWAR. Hopefully this room is next door to the Unsungs, because Radke could fit there as well. Ditto Kaat in personifying excellence. His delivering season after season is what got him to the Hall of Fame. If more of the time had been in a Twins uniform, he’d be up there with Blyleven in bWAR. Stalwarts: TSN: They made excellence routine. Careers defined not by peaks, but by the steadiness and certainty they embodied. Justin Verlander. Cody’s Choices: Brad Radke and Jim Perry. IT Choices: Dave Goltz and Kevin Tapani#. These guys made excellence routine over a several-year stretch. Though not reaching the unsung level of Allison and Perry, Goltz and Tapani are also underrated in the minds of Twins fans. You could roll them out every four or five days and know you are going to get a steady pitching performance. Supernovas: TSN: They reached the game’s highest level, if only briefly. Their greatness is defined by an extraordinary peak. Sandy Koufax. Cody Choices: Johan Santana and Zoilo Versalles*. IT Choices: Johan Santana and Justin Morneau. Well, every so often there’s a “should Johan be in the Hall of Fame” TD article, with Koufax almost always the comparison point. Winner of two Cy Young and deserving of a third, he got 23.5 of his 35.8 bWAR in a three-year stretch that should have resulted in three straight Cys. That’s an Everest-like peak. Morneau isn’t quite as much of a clear-cut choice, but he’s pretty good. He won an MVP and posted a 138 OPS+ over a five-year period. Think Denali. And then he got concussed. Were not for the perfect What If fits of Oliva and Buxton, Morneau could fit there as well. Prodigies: TSN: Captured our imagination from the moment we first saw them. Best remembered for their youthful exuberance and the dreams their talents inspired. Bob Feller. Cody Choices: Butch Wynegar*, Francisco Liriano*. IT Choices: Corey Koskie and Shane Mack#. Here’s one where the Top 28 rule hampered me. When reading the description, Butch Wynegar immediately came to mind. As a Rookie of the Year, he captured our imagination and was going to be the next Thurman Munson. Or at least the next Bob Boone. A few years later, John Castino was another Rookie of the Year who had us drooling. But alas, a prodigy characteristic is that they often don’t stay around long enough to rack up bigger stats, and neither Wynegar nor Castino made the Top 28. It’s a bit of a “has to fit somewhere classification,” but I think Koskie and Mack fit here. They captured our imagination in different ways, Koskie with his potential that took a while to develop and Mack with how quickly he contributed after joining the team. Artists: TSN: They rendered baseball an art form. Few matched their production; none matched their signature style. Tony Gwynn. Cody Choices: Corey Koskie and Joe Nathan. IT Choices: Gary Gaetti# and Frank Viola. Let’s be honest. When TSN rolls out its list, Carew’s bunting and signature batting style make him a no-brainer for this room., but he’s in the Inner Circle living room in my house. And similarly, Hunter’s defensive prowess and wall climbing was an art form, but I called him a showman. However, Gaetti played third like an artist (probably a ceramicist, given the dirt involved) and Frankie played Sweet Music on the Viola as the crafty lefthander. They earned their pottery wheel and music stand as artists. Unicorns: TSN: Broke the mold by redefining excellence. What made them different made them great. Mariano Rivera. Cody Choices: Cesar Tovar and Earl Battey*. IT Choices: Cesar Tovar and Joe Nathan. Willi Castro gave us a year as the ultimate in positional flexibility, but Tovar invented the notion over eight Twins seasons. When Killebrew played multiple positions, they were trying to hide his defense to get his bat in the lineup. By contrast, when Tovar played multiple positions regularly, he was did it much further up the defensive spectrum. He’s a no-brainer for me – nobody did versatility like him. He even played all nine positions in a single game. And among the guys left, who is most the unicorn? Nathan. Like Mariano, he was became a new pitcher when he shifted to the bullpen and only Aguilera is close to him in career saves. And besides, isn’t a unicorn a type of horse? Who else could stand on the mound and do a horse-like, “pbtbtbtbtb” before every pitch? Pioneers: TSN: They went first. They built the foundation for those who followed. Juan Marichal. Cody Choices (coming): Bob Allison and Camilo Pascual IT Choices: Camilo Pascual and Brian Dozier#. Jackie Robinson seems like the ultimate Pioneer, but they used him as an Immortal. I’ll be interested to read who else they put alongside Marichal. Clemente seems likely, but I suppose he could be an Immortal as well. I digress. But not really, when you think about Pascual as the beginning of the foundational Twins Cuban pipeline. As a Senator and then Twins, he was the first significant Cuban-born pitcher in the AL/NL and remains second on the all-time bWAR AL/NL list of Cuban pitchers, trailing only Luis Tiant. As an African-American catcher at a time when there weren’t many, Earl Battey would have been a viable Pioneer choice, but he’s just outside the Top 28. Dozier is a “has to fit somewhere” choice, but he pioneered the concept of the power-hitting middle infielder, so I’ll go with him. Pariahs: TSN: They lied. They discriminated. Baseball has exiled them, yet its record would be incomplete without them. Mark McGwire. Cody Choices: Chuck Knoblauch and Carlos Correa*. IT Choices: Chuck Knoblauch and Max Kepler#. Fortunately, the Twins haven’t had a lot of dirtbags, but I disliked having to stick anyone in this room. However, Knoblauch left in a bitter trade demand and the Twins canceled his planned induction into their Hall of Fame because of domestic assault arrests. Twins fans showed their displeasure when he returned as a Yankee. Knoblauch probably has to go here. I really didn’t want to put Kepler here, but I needed someone. As the MLB career leaders in HRs and RBIs among those born in Germany, I wanted to use his ethnicity as a rationale for calling him a pioneer. Oh, and I’m contractually obligated to note that his parents were ballet dancers, but you probably already knew that. I (weakly) decided to call Kepler the second pariah, however. At least on TD, he was a pariah for his (purported) unwillingness to play CF. And though not as a Twin, he served a suspension for steroids. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but likely there are those who connect the suspension with a bombastic 36 home runs in 2019, 50 percent more than in any other season. Sorry, Max, but somebody has to hang out with Chuck in the basement. So there you have it. Two players in each of 14 rooms. I think I did pretty well (duh – if I didn’t think so, I wouldn’t have posted it), but where do you agree/disagree? Here’s where I’m supposed to say, “Leave a comment and start the discussion.” So, leave a comment and start the discussion.

The premise is that each player can only be used once in the series. Killebrew and Puckett have already been used.

Remember that a player can only be used once. Cody has already used Carew, Puckett and Mauer elsewhere, so unless you think they fit better here than as Inner Circle or Immortal players, they aren't eligible here.