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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    As does Spotrac.
  2. IndianaTwin
    I don't know if these are bold or not, but here's mine... June prediction: TD has at least six articles on the pros and cons of trading/extending Joe Ryan. July prediction: TD has at least nine articles on the pros and cons of trading/extending Joe Ryan. August/September prediction: TD has at least four articles on why they should have or shouldn't have traded/extended Joe Ryan.
  3. IndianaTwin
    Berrios bWAR in the 1.5 seasons of control the Blue Jays received: 0.8. SWR bWAR, even with the debacle of this year: 2.5; Martin bWAR so far: 0.7 and counting.
  4. IndianaTwin
    Several have noted here and in other threads that the bullpen has been pitching much better "of late." I think a better way of saying it is that the guys currently in the pen have pitched well all season. They've gotten rid of the dead weight in Topa, Garcia, etc. The seven current guys in the bullpen not named SWR have a combined ERA of 3.64. If you take out an eight-day April stretch from Banda, it drops to 3.06. And for what it's worth, SWR hasn't given up a run in the extremely SSS of 3 innings in the bullpen. Add those and the numbers drop a smidge to 3.56 and 2.98.
  5. IndianaTwin
    Much of TD was convinced it was 70 win team at best going into the season. Based on what we’ve seen so far, that means either: a) they are a 70-win team and will play like a 65-win team the rest of the season to end up 70-92; or b) they aren’t a 70-win team after all, despite the proclamations of the braintrust on TD.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I don't anticipate any All-Star bids from the bullpen, but the seven guys currently in the bullpen not named Woods Richardson have a combined ERA of 3.75 on the year. Banda had an eight-day stretch in April when he gave up nine earned runs. Take out those three appearances and the combined ERA is 3.15 for the non-SWR portion of the current bullpen.
  7. IndianaTwin
    "Anthony Banda has been a little better excellent in May after looking rough in his first month an eight-day stretch in April with the Twins...." I fixed this sentence. Banda gave up nine runs in an eight-day period in April. Aside from that, his ERA is 2.79. He didn't give up a run in five of his six outings before that three-game stretch and hasn't in 13 of the 16 games since. Since May 2, he's given up one run in 8.2 innings, with just three hits and three walks allowed.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Maybe this isn't the place to note this, so it doesn't take the thread off topic, but are you referring to the bullpen that's just given up two runs over 27.1 innings this week when you take out the three runs in .2 innings given up by the guy who's since been DFAed? I don't anticipate any All-Star bids from the bullpen, but the seven guys currently in the bullpen and not named Woods Richardson have a combined ERA of 3.75 on the year. Banda had an eight-day stretch when he gave up nine earned runs. Take out those three appearances and the ERA is 3.15 in the current bullpen less SWR.
  9. IndianaTwin
    What’s so hard about spelling “Jake”?
  10. IndianaTwin
    That was my previous thought as well, but he’d be taking a significant chance. With this season’s success he’d be looking at a pretty good contract and there’s such an injury risk. Think of the contract Raleigh would have gotten last winter as a 28 year old compared to what he would get this year as a 29 year old. He would have cost himself more than the QO. I recognize he was coming off a historic year, but the ages and concept are the same. If Jeffers thinks something like 4/$72M is legit, he has to be confident he’s still going to get 3/$49M the next year if he takes the QO. This also fits in the “too early” category and my comment is based on his coming back healthy and finishing well. Even then, I don’t think it’s clear-cut that he gets offered, but I also don’t think it’s clear cut he takes it. We yell “Cheap Pohlad,” but it was a Pohlad that offered Mauer a contract. If Tom wants to communicate a willingness to spend, this is his first real opportunity to do so.
  11. IndianaTwin
    Too early. But at least enjoyable to speculate on right now. Buxton -- No. PR disaster to trade. And the team isn't THAT far away. Ryan -- No. Not sure Lopez will be ready to start next year. Add him in late May like the Yankees have done with Cole and Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp could be one of the elite rotations in baseball. Too many starters is never an extended problem. Jeffers -- I get the thought of trading him, but catcher consistency goes a long way in pitcher development. Playoff-caliber teams tend to have their catcher situation resolved (unless there's a midyear injury). Will they get that much more at the deadline than they will get with a QO at the end of year? I'm not sure they will. Consider, but only for something significant, and treat keeping him as an investment in the continued development of the pitching staff. Bell -- Sure, though I don't know that you'll get much. Martin -- No at this point. Why create a hole that you don't need to? If the prospects keep pounding down the door, one of them will be tradeable in the offseason. If they don't, you'll be glad you kept Martin. Lewis -- Definitely too early. Not sure you'll get much at this point. I keep rolling the dice that he will rebound. For what it's worth, he's the same age as Martin, who many of us wanted to dump at this time last year. People don't trade for projects midyear. Someone might in the offseason. Wallner -- Not sure you'll get much, but sure. Generally though, I keep rolling the dice on his return. If he bounces back, he's worth more in the offseason than now. If he doesn't, non-tendering him in the offseason is likely an easy call. Rogers -- I'd go the other way. If he's pitching well enough to generate a return and his veteran presence is worth something, dangle another $2M in front of him and extend him to '27. Larnach -- I'm not sold on retaining him given his bounceback year, but aside from Bell, he's probably the one on this list I'm most willing to move. A team can want a bat, and you're probably selling high on him at this point. Outman -- I'm not nearly as down on him as TD, but with his recent better hitting, he's perhaps improved his stock from last year at this time. If you can get more than Stewart for him, sure. But mostly sit back and endure the wrath of TD for doing very little, as you continue to sift and sort through the options for 2027.
  12. IndianaTwin
    "Welcome to the big leagues, kid. See that big green wall in left? Good luck!"
  13. IndianaTwin
    You know how MLB guys on injury rehabs in the minors are often known to treat the minor leagues to supper? Hopefully Gonzalez gives the Gray child a nice baby gift or makes a contribution to an Education 529 account as thanks for the opportunity to get a bump in pay for a couple days! 😀
  14. IndianaTwin
    Cool for him (and even more so for Gray, but that's a different thing)! Given that Gray doesn't play much, I'm going to predict four plate appearances -- one as a courtesy intro pinch hitting appearance after Friday or Saturday's game is decided (potentially with an inning or two on defense) and then three as a designated hitter in Saturday or Sunday's game. But again, cool for him. If he gets the extra couple days from Gray being on the restricted list Monday and Tuesday, perhaps I'll get to see him Tuesday night, when I hope to attend the game at The Monument to Cement.
  15. IndianaTwin
    I can only speak for myself, but I find paragraphs 4 and 5 a more enjoyable way to live life than paragraphs 2 and 3.
  16. IndianaTwin
    I'm on your bandwagon with not wanting to trade Ryan. Look at this: Turn Lopez into a shorter leash on SWR and this group turns into one of the top rotations in baseball in the YTD. Controllable Lopez/Ryan/Ober/Abel/Bradley/Prielipp (and Rojas and more to come?) is potentially an elite rotation. Having six isn't a problem, given that Lopez may well not be ready on Opening Day. This is a season about sifting and sorting -- any success in 2026 is a bonus. But sifting and sorting is a longer-term process than fans are predisposed to endure. For example... By the end of the year, some of the current bullpen guys will work themselves into being counted on. I'm not smart enough to tell you which ones, but they've tried a bunch of guys and they will keep churning. And no, the bullpen isn't jam-packed with old guys -- less than 70 innings have been pitched by guys over 30, one of which has since been DFAed. Another is Banda, for whom one lousy eight-day stretch has soured TD after two really good seasons. Keep sorting. Last season's SSS on Keaschall had us convinced he is an All-Star (hint: I don't think he's going to be selected this year). But sorting is happening with sticking with him, Lewis and Wallner getting demoted, Lee showing progression, Topa getting DFAed, Martin playing well, etc. Injuries have slowed down prospect sorting (including Roden), but it's happening now with Outman, who has actually started to hit a bit in the week-plus since Wallner went down. Based on how Martin has done this year, I'm glad the front office takes longer to sift and sort than TD would do. Based on many of us on TD (me included, and I tend to have a long leash), he would have been a year ago. So back to my original point -- don't create a huge hole in the process by trading Ryan in order to "solve" a problem with one (or two or even three) new prospects and lottery tickets. And keep sifting and sorting along the way.
  17. IndianaTwin
    That was my thought -- he could be the second coming of Carson McCusker! I don't know similar they truly are in style and defensive ability, but that's the comparison that came to mind. Outman is never going to succeed, at least on TD -- he's reached Pagan/Bundy/Shoemaker status in these parts. But he's actually started to hit a bit (.794 OPS) since getting consistent at bats since Wallner was sent down. He brings pinch-running and defense. It will be interesting to see how long any improvement lasts -- I'd continue riding with him and rolling the dice for as long as lasts.
  18. IndianaTwin
    Are you suggesting trading Ryan for a bonifide cleanup hitter to improve year’s team? That ain’t happening. Not because Ryan isn’t worth that, but because no team in contention is going to trade their cleanup hitter midseason.
  19. IndianaTwin
    This is the internet. Trusting people who are closer to the scene than us is not allowed. /s🤣
  20. IndianaTwin
    The No. 3 pick.
  21. IndianaTwin
    Adams (.066*), Rojas (.000), Morris (.000), Gomez (.135), Laweryson (.017), Acton (.031), Orze (.116) all entered the season with less than a year of service time. Plus SWR (1.153), Funderburk (1.122) and Sands (3.017) are still on the young side of 30. Some of those are injured or on the St. Paul Shuttle, but any who are healthy will likely pitch again for the Twins this year. Only 65 innings have been pitched by guys over age 30. Guys like Garcia, Banda, Rogers, and Topa serve a couple of functions: A) it's a roll of the dice to see if they have something left or that can be tweaked or B) to cover innings so that the young guys aren't overexposed too early and are developed properly. For example, in category A, Banda has been a scapegoat this year, but if you look at his game log, his entire cumulate negative WPA can be attributed to one game -- take it out and he's a net positive. I don't know whether .500 is an average "winning percentage" in WPA, but in 15 of his 22 games, he's had a positive WPA. Of his 15 earned runs, nine came in an eight-day span in early April. Of his 18 hits allowed, nine came in the same span. He's only 32 and threw 114.2 innings over the past two years with a 3.14 ERA. I've no problem with rolling the dice a little longer to see if two-plus years of quality outweighs a week of stinkage. In category B, Garcia is 39 and is likely just here until they need a roster spot. Rogers has been pitching fine and serves as innings eater/stability factor. Topa exited today. I'm not smart enough to pick out which ones, but several of the guys in the first paragraph will be good medium to high-leverage guys by year end or early next year. *Years.days of MLB service time heading into the season.
  22. IndianaTwin
    People have clamored for the Twins to play the kids. These guys aren't necessarily young, but they are unproven, so I think it actually makes sense to move guys around to see how they respond to different situations -- empty bases, runners on, starting innings, middle of an inning, up/downs, etc.
  23. IndianaTwin
    Another consideration is that it doesn't seem like catchers get traded as often at the deadline, though perhaps I'm forgetting some who have. Good teams tend to already have good catchers and they don't seem to want to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at that point in the season. Also, with the number of young pitchers they have, I think the Twins would also want to consider the effect it has on pitcher development to trade their No. 1 guy. With those factors and Jeffers perhaps having played himself into a QO candidacy, I've been feeling less and less urgency in trading him.
  24. IndianaTwin
    @Steve Drumwright, I'm not sure where you find the 40-man roster on Fangraphs, but today's 40-man movement was dropping Topa (DFA) and Acton (60-day IL) for Jackson and Arcia. The moves of Lewis, Jeffers and Adams didn't change their 40-man status. The list on MLB.com is current, though it also includes those on the 60-day (Acton, Festa, Lopez).
  25. IndianaTwin
    I'm also impressed with how they have turned Josh Bell loose. He already has more steals this season than in the past seven years combined!
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