IndianaTwin

Here in the real world we have Alex Jackson chasing that neon rainbow.

Agreed. I’m just using it as a reference point as to why it would make sense for the Twins to offer and why it would make sense for him to turn it down.

Raleigh will be making $24.6M in 2028-31. His overall AAV is less because it includes two arb years. Realmuto was making more than $23M several years ago. Perez made $22M last year. I doubt Jeffers will get multiple years at $23M. I think he would get reasonably close to that if he were to pursue a one-year contract.

In the earlier article, someone commented on how it humanized Falvey, and I agree. I found the same when he was part of a panel at the SABR convention a few years ago. He seemed like he was always trying to do right by players and their agent and sought to be very collaborative in working with his staff.

Alas, Matthews just got sent down.

Not to mention that there are only 51 games in the remaining 58 day, so a 7-man rotation often has guys working on 7 or even 8 days rest.

Yep -- I've posted several times I'm hoping for a couple Romo for Diaz-level trades. And yes to the possibility of bringing Minter back if things go smoothly.

If I did the math right, the eight guys currently in the bullpen, plus Minter, have a combined 3.39 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the year.

I didn't count Jackson, but otherwise I came up with a 2.52 ERA for the horrible Twins bullpen. /s And 8 of the 23 earned runs are in the last two lines, but not in the current pen. Sustainable? Probably not. But the bullpen has clearly been a strength over the past few weeks.

I’ve liked him for a long time.

It just changed. Passan reports A.J. Minter to the Twins. Tier 1. I have liked him for a long time.

I was driving down Interstate 57, windows open on a beautiful night. Most of central Illinois heard me yell.

I don’t believe what I just saw. I don’t beLIEVE what I just saw.

At home plate, in fact. In what was definitely not a meeting that could have been handled with an email.

So I am at the Society for American Baseball Research national convention. Someone did a poster asking whether “Nepo Babies” get a longer leash than “Normies,” those players who are not the descendent of an MLB player. Conclusion: They do. In their first three seasons, Nepo Babies tend to get more plate appearances than players with similar stats. And right now, given Kody’s early performances, I’m cool with that!

Thanks. I was hoping someone would post this. Does your source also provide… a) how many times it ended 4-3? b) how often the inning started with two outs? EDIT to add: A Tweet passed along said it was the third time that a team has done it when there was two outs and the bases empty at some point in the inning. If I’m reading it correctly, the other two actually had larger leads at the time and still ended with an Ultimate Grand Slam, so this was the first time the first two batters of the inning made outs and then the festivities began.

I don’t know prospects well enough, but as a fellow QO preferer, I also wonder if people overestimate how much the Twins will get for him. Supposedly the Yankees are desperate, which in theory means they would overpay, but an added dynamic with catchers is that they don’t play every day. They have 47 games remaining, so they are only trading for maybe 32 games’ worth. Your list is really helpful. Would Quick, for example, be enough to get him if the shoe were on the other fit?

Approximately August 14. That's the date when there are only 45 service days left in the season. If they bring Jenkins up at all (I'm not convinced they will), it won't happen before that date. If they bring him up after that date, he retains his rookie status for next year. If he then wins Rookie of the Year in 2027, the Twins get an extra pick in 2028. If they bring him up before that, he would lose his status and the opportunity for the pick. This all can change with the new CBA, but it fits the current rules and is the new way to fiddle with service time. It makes sense to play the game as we know it. As example, last year Baltimore brought up Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers on that weekend. The Orioles were pretty open in the weeks leading up that they wouldn't bring those guys up before that date.

I think it's preordained that the Yankees settle for Christian Bethancourt. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/yankees-sign-christian-bethancourt-catcher.html

How many times can we turn our heads and pretend that we don't see how well the team is doing? How many times can we look up before we see first place? How many deaths can we have as Twins fans before we know that too many seasons have died?

Yeah, but with a short bench and the emphasis on positional flexibility…

Ya know, now that you mention it... (Does that give you a clue how many Teams meetings brain-fried me today? 🤣)

Exactly. If it was preordained, why not trade for him a month ago?

Right. What's in the past is in the past. Let's look at next year and whether it makes sense to offer a QO. Using the $23M figure. I think it does. By AAV, that's significantly more than Raleigh. BUT, Raleigh's contract includes buying out two years of arbitration. For his four "free agent" years as an age 31-34 catcher, he's getting $24.667M. What would he have gotten for one year? Probably $28M or more. Starting what will be five years ago, Realmuto was paid $23.875M for the four years of being 31-34. With inflation, that's probably an AAV of $26-$27M, pushing $30M if it was a one-year deal. As noted, Murphy is on a 4 year deal at a $15M AAV covering ages 30-33, plus an option year. Where is Jeffers in the pecking order? He's not what Raleigh was when he signed that deal. He's not what Realmuto was. But he's better than what Murphy was. Jeffers will be 30, a year younger than Raleigh and Realmuto and also coming off a phenomenal year for a catcher. His injury was not catching-related, so shouldn't be a big factor in being a free agent. I think the free agent contracts people have been projecting are well below what he would get on the market. I'm not sure 3/$60M gets it done -- not long enough. I'm not sure 4/$72M gets it done, perhaps still not long enough. As a 30 YO, it may even take a five-year deal, perhaps at $80M. So with the injury record of catchers, I don't think he takes a QO when he's looking at that sort of payout. People think he will because he would "only" have to get x dollars after that to come out money ahead. But Murphy and Raleigh are both great examples of what can happen for a catcher. Take Raleigh -- if he'd waited one more year to sign, there's no way he would have gotten the deal he did. Catchers need to strike when the going is good, and this is Jeffers' best chance for a big payday. I don't think he takes the QO, so offer it and take the draft pick when he turns it down. Ah, but what if he does pull a Brandon Woodruff and take the QO? Is it an overpay to have him on a one-year deal at $23M? Maybe, but not that much, again, considering that it's just a one-year deal. But what if they don't want to spend $30M on catchers, given they also have Caratini. First, Tom says he wants to increase payroll, so maybe that's not a problem. Second, if it is a problem, trade Caratini. I suspect you'd get as much for Caratini for $7M on a one-year deal as you get for seven weeks of Jeffers, particularly if Jeffers is off the market and there are few legit free agent options for teams to sign.

That's incredibly hard.