IndianaTwin

Welp, here goes Jim Bowden again... "...if I were [the Twins], I would see what I could get for Joe Ryan, Taylor Rogers, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, Tristan Gray, Victor Caratini and Josh Bell. I would even talk to Byron Buxton to see if he would waive his no-trade clause if I could deal him to either the Braves or Yankees. Ryan as the "best fit" for the Braves, Lewis for the Marlins, Jeffers for the Yankees. His next paragraph is on the Royals. I'm surprised he didn't mention that Witt could get them a haul.

Particularly given that with any of these who are pending free agents, we're looking at barely a third of a season if they wait all the way to the deadline. Jansen's $11M contract, for example, is already less than $5M and trickles down even further over time. You've apparently looked at the contracts enough to call them "expensive." Is Jansen's the largest in this list? Who else is up there? (I'd add that Jansen hasn't exactly been Jansen so far this year. He'd still be a significant add, however.)

For the upcoming games, MLB.com lists Prielipp as the starter for Wednesday.

Which is why we shouldn’t trade Ryan. To that list on the position side add Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Bradley, Prielipp… The bullpen isn’t there yet, but if each month of this season solidifies one bullpen spot and the year ends with five or six guys slotted in, that’s a pretty good start to the offseason.

FWIW, when I looked at the Orioles transactions, I remembered that they did the same with Dylan Beavers.

ABs is the other part of the calculation they'd have to manage. It looks like Basallo played 31 out of Baltimore's last 39 games and they kept him to 109 at bats. With 21 more at bats to play with, they could have played him another four or five games and gotten to 35 or 36. It also looks like they exclusively batted him 5th or lower, which saves a few ABs, Basallo is a catcher, so that in itself necessitated a few days off, though he also played 1B and DH. The Twins have 39 games (plus any rainout makeups) in the last 45 service days. By similarly batting Jenkins lower in the order, they could probably start him in 34 or so games and be okay. Or a couple fewer and use him as a defensive replacement. If they are going to play the game, I'd call him up on the mid-August date. At that point in the season and in his development, I think some days off where he's sitting in the dugout beside Buxton are more valuable than an extra week in St. Paul. I also think it's a game worth playing. There were a couple other teams that did it -- I just remember Basallo because he was on my fantasy team and I was sending emails to manager@baltimoreorioles.com every day, with the subject line "Promote Basallo." They were pretty open in July already saying that's what they were planning, however. If this stays as part of the new CBA, I think more and more teams will do it. (Aside -- I'm positing this in a Jenkins vacuum. I echo DJL's point in saying that promoting Roden and Rodriguez are higher priorities because of the factors he identified.)

There's a new(ish) calculation in the mix. Under the current CBA, teams get an extra draft pick if a player is on the roster the entire season and wins Rookie of the Year. That means it potentially benefits teams to make sure that a highly regarded player doesn't lose rookie status. One of the ways a player loses rookie status is by spending more than 45 days on the active roster. Last year, for example, the Orioles brought up Samuel Basallo about 20 minutes after they reached that point in the season. Unless he comes up very soon for significantly extended run, it's likely he won't come up before the point at which 45 days of service time remain in the season, which is something like August 14.

Exactly. Any team looking to add Larnach/Bell/Wallner to help this year's team isn't going to trade away an MLB reliever.

Another way of viewing consistency is on the bottom end. The Twins have been shut out only twice on the season, the Yankees (second in runs scored) five times. The Twins have scored three or fewer only 30 times, the Yankees 32. Said the other way, the Twins have scored four or more runs 57 times, the Yankees 52. (The Twins have played two more games, but they have scored four or more in 65.5 percent of their games, the Yankees in 61.2 percent.) I only compared them to the Yankees. Perhaps there's an easy way to compare them to the whole league, but I didn't see it. But I'd say they've been just as consistent, potentially more so, than the other team in the league most likely to claim A-level offense.

Also, The Athletic posted its analysis of which teams will/should be buys and which sellers. They call the Twins' biggest needs "SP/OF." Um, I'm viewing their biggest need a little differently....

If the name of the game on offense is scoring runs and the team is leading the league in runs scored, what is required to achieve an A?

I was pleased with the Banda signing. His overall stats are massively affected by an eight-day stretch in April. Other than that, he's been quite good. Hayes hints at him being a non-tender candidate, but I think he's a no-brainer to bring back if he appears to be healthy by November. With missing quite a bit of time, his salary won't increase much.

Here's the quote and following sentence from Dan Hayes' article... “I got asked about this a month and a half ago, the vibes here,” said Bell, whose two-run homer opened up a 4-1 lead in the sixth inning. “I was like, ‘Let me feel it out. It’s still early.’ This team really vibes well with one another. It’s a lot of fun. I’ve been on a lot of different teams that have cliques, little falling-outs across the course of the season. This team is definitely the closest one I’ve been on. I feel like Buxton obviously has a lot to do with it, someone who’s been here and set a foundation for the guys. It’s been a lot of fun to play on this team for sure.” Monday afternoon wasn’t particularly upbeat for the Twins. This is a close-knit team that banded together early after repeatedly hearing about being undermanned and facing low expectations... Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Hayes one of the most consistent voices calling the Twins undermanned?

Someone is going to reference trading Jeffers. This isn't intended as a leading question, but what does 50 games of a good catcher on an expiring contract actually get a team? I don't recall many catchers of that ilk getting traded at recent deadlines. It seems like good teams usually have their catcher situation settled and contending teams don't tend to want to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at that point in the season. Can someone recall recent trades that have had a catcher as the centerpiece?

I don't see the next few weeks as having a dramatic effect on the direction they go at the deadline. Or at least I hope it doesn't. Anything this year is bonus. But with a) a potentially outstanding rotation and b) an offense that is at the top of the AL in runs scored, potentially has reinforcements in-house and is losing very little, 2027 is very much in play. Whether they play 10-17 or 17-10 between now and the deadline, I'd like to see the response be the same -- tinker. Don't trade anything that is a part of 2027, trade minimal expiring assets (i.e., Bell, Rogers). If you can get something for the latter, great. But if not, ride the wave, etc. I think "going all in" and trading future assets for this year or "going total selloff" would both be mistakes.

Addendum to the previous: I like that rotation. Then add Lopez (and Abel?) and that's a top tier rotation for '27. Please don't trade Ryan (unless it's for something like seven established MLB relievers 🤣).

If the desire is to slip in a few extra days in Prielipp's schedule from time to time, with off days on Thursday and next Monday, they could consider skipping him to bring Ryan back on Sunday. RECENT -- last Wednesday: Ryan Thursday: Off Friday: Bradley Saturday: Paredes Sunday: Prielipp Monday: Matthews ---------------------------------------- TONIGHT -- Tuesday: Ryan (5 days off) Wednesday: Bradley (4) Thursday: Off Friday: Ober/Paredes (IL/5) Saturday: Matthews (4) Sunday: Ryan (4) Monday: Off Tuesday: Bradley (5) Wednesday: Prielipp (9) Thursday: Ober/Paredes (5) Friday: Matthews (5) Saturday: Ryan (5) Sunday: Bradley (4) And then they could pretty much jump in wherever they want after the All-Star Break, since everyone has at least four days. Even if they started with Prielipp (and I doubt they would), he'd have eight days rest. This approach also allows Ryan to pitch on Saturday heading into the break rather than Sunday, so he'd actually get to pitch his well-deserved inning in the ASG.

“Long-term health of the franchise” can be measured in different ways. Calvin trading Carew still has negative effects on the franchise. Based on TD comments, last year’s trading frenzy is having negative effects on fan support a year later, even though it could well be we end having gotten a lot more in return than we traded away. Trading Buxton would be received similarly by many, for a long time.

Hadn’t thought of that angle, but that makes sense. Hopefully it would be a moot point either way.

People comment about him having a No Trade Clause, but in reality it’s not needed anymore. Because he has 10 years of service time and the last five are with the same team, he’s automatically granted veto rights on any trade. I suppose that could be changed in the new CBA, but it doesn’t seem to be a high priority to mess with it. Even if they did, it would be very unlikely they would take that status away from people who have already achieved it. But I’m with you on pursuing an extension in the off season. With any health at all, he passes Allison this year on the all-time bWAR list, Knoblauch and Hrbek next year and potentially even Oliva the following year, leaving him behind only Carew, Killebrew, Mauer and Puckett as hitters with the Twins by the end of the current contract. Keep him here and schedule the uniform retirement party.

I don’t have a preference on them. I’m just enjoying the irony of TD folks arguing that the Twins could use another LH hitting outfielder. I don’t have a precise count, but over the past year, it seems there’s been at least several articles or comments arguing, “The Twins have too }#%^*+ many LH OFs. They need to trade one.” (And by “several,” I mean “several per week.”)

You are exactly right — the historical data doesn’t support your argument. It makes sense Mullins would have given up switch hitting against left-handed pitching. His OPS against lefties was .435 in the three partial seasons before he gave it up. For his career, Lee’s OPS against lefties is currently .646, only .020 less than against righties.

Kreidler’s pre-2026 MLB stats are indeed horrible in sporadic playing time, but his OPS is .786 in 320 games at AAA. For context, the median team OPS in the International League is .760 this year (couldn’t easily find a mean). Makes me wonder if the AAA sample may be a bit more indicative of his hitting. Not an All-Star by any means, but not what he’d done in the majors before this year.

I'm pretty much on board with what you've suggested. 1a) On Ryan, I do wonder if most of us are overestimating the contract he would get. There's a pretty interesting parallel with Lopez. Lopez had 2.8 and 3.0 bWARs as a 26 and 27YO and had one Arb year left when the Twins signed him to a 4/$86M extension. Ryan had 2.3 and 1.6 bWAR as a 26 and 27YO, followed by 4.9 as a 29YO and on pace for a 5.0 as a 30YO. So advantage Lopez as a 26-28YO, advantage Ryan in the Arb1 and Arb2 years. But in Lopez's extension, they were buying his 29-32YO years, whereas a 4-year extension for Ryan would be his 32-35YO years. And then there's inflation, but I'd think your 4/$100M is approaching top end. Or put it this way, I'm not sure I'd want to go any further. Or maybe it's 3/$84M-ish. I'd honestly wait until year end for the conversation, however. If it does end up going the trade route, I'm not sure you'd get much more for him at the deadline than you do at year end. That also buys more time for sifting and sorting amongst the rest of the rotation and even gets you closer to seeing Lopez's rehab situation. On trading Ryan, people think they would get about what they got on Berrios for his 1+ seasons of control, but they need to ask for significantly more. Berrios' best bWAR was 3.6 and he had 1.9 at the deadline when he was traded. Ryan's best is 4.5 and he's already at 2.4 for this year. All in all, I don't trade Ryan. I would gladly start next season with Ryan, Lopez, turning-it-around Ober, the Bradley that has 1.4 bWAR in the 13 starts (or pace for about 3.3 over 32 starts, but also a year older/improved), Abel, Prielipp, Zebby, Festa, Rojas... 1b) Jeffers. Yes, try to extend him, though that's probably not happening. Listen to offers, but I'm not sure you're going to get a 2027-ready major leaguer for approximately 32 games of him (I'm using that the Twins have 49 games after the deadline and catchers play about two-thirds). If you don't get a 2027-ready guy, I'd rather play out the string and roll the dice on this year. See note 4. 3b) The two relievers you mentioned are Banda and Rogers. Keep Banda. Take out an eight-day stretch in April and his ERA is 2.03. He hasn't given up an earned run in more than a month. This is on the heels of 3.18 and 3.08 seasons. That's essentially 2022-24 Jax. That's a guy you build on, not trade. Give Rogers a choice. If he wants to pursue a playoff spot, trade him. But you're not going to get much. He's frankly worth more in veteran leadership than he is in lottery ticket, so unless he wants to go, keep him around. And furthermore, at year-end, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to resign him for another $1-$2M. 3a) Mixed feelings on Larnach. I do wonder if he has a future with the Twins, but in a sense he's insurance for the herd of rookies not panning out. Consider trading. And sure, trade Bell if there is a taker. With what we've seen of Lewis, Bell isn't going to get many at bats the rest of the way anyway. Freeing up at bats for young guys is probably worth more to the team than whatever they'd get for Bell. Two years ago, he was traded for a PTBNL, and his OPS+ is pretty much the same now as what it was then. 2) Yep, pretty much. Aside from the guys mentioned, it's all about sifting and sorting through the options to know what offseason holes remain: Buxton is the solution in CF. Is Lewis the solution at 1B? Is Lee the solution at 3B? Is Culpepper the solution at SS (assuming he's not out long)? (And while we're at it, move Houston up to Wichita.) Is Keaschall the solution at 2B? Is the LF/RF/DH solution found amongst Martin/Roden/Rodriguez/Gonzalez/Mendez/Jenkins, and yeah, Larnach and a rejuvenated Wallner? Is there still a place for Clemens? 4) Same conclusion. The FO will get ripped on for doing very little, but I think that's the best option. The rotation outlined above and a good number of yeses from the bulleted list is a great start to the offseason. Add a bullpen that has been sorted to the point of having at least five or six knowns (and I think that's very reasonable as they continue working through options with half a season remaining). They'll have to deal with catcher, but with so little financial commitment to these guys, that's why I give serious consideration to the overpay-QO on Jeffers.

Yes, Lopez. Apologies for any unnecessary heart palpitations.