IndianaTwin

“Long-term health of the franchise” can be measured in different ways. Calvin trading Carew still has negative effects on the franchise. Based on TD comments, last year’s trading frenzy is having negative effects on fan support a year later, even though it could well be we end having gotten a lot more in return than we traded away. Trading Buxton would be received similarly by many, for a long time.

Hadn’t thought of that angle, but that makes sense. Hopefully it would be a moot point either way.

People comment about him having a No Trade Clause, but in reality it’s not needed anymore. Because he has 10 years of service time and the last five are with the same team, he’s automatically granted veto rights on any trade. I suppose that could be changed in the new CBA, but it doesn’t seem to be a high priority to mess with it. Even if they did, it would be very unlikely they would take that status away from people who have already achieved it. But I’m with you on pursuing an extension in the off season. With any health at all, he passes Allison this year on the all-time bWAR list, Knoblauch and Hrbek next year and potentially even Oliva the following year, leaving him behind only Carew, Killebrew, Mauer and Puckett as hitters with the Twins by the end of the current contract. Keep him here and schedule the uniform retirement party.

I don’t have a preference on them. I’m just enjoying the irony of TD folks arguing that the Twins could use another LH hitting outfielder. I don’t have a precise count, but over the past year, it seems there’s been at least several articles or comments arguing, “The Twins have too }#%^*+ many LH OFs. They need to trade one.” (And by “several,” I mean “several per week.”)

You are exactly right — the historical data doesn’t support your argument. It makes sense Mullins would have given up switch hitting against left-handed pitching. His OPS against lefties was .435 in the three partial seasons before he gave it up. For his career, Lee’s OPS against lefties is currently .646, only .020 less than against righties.

Kreidler’s pre-2026 MLB stats are indeed horrible in sporadic playing time, but his OPS is .786 in 320 games at AAA. For context, the median team OPS in the International League is .760 this year (couldn’t easily find a mean). Makes me wonder if the AAA sample may be a bit more indicative of his hitting. Not an All-Star by any means, but not what he’d done in the majors before this year.

I'm pretty much on board with what you've suggested. 1a) On Ryan, I do wonder if most of us are overestimating the contract he would get. There's a pretty interesting parallel with Lopez. Lopez had 2.8 and 3.0 bWARs as a 26 and 27YO and had one Arb year left when the Twins signed him to a 4/$86M extension. Ryan had 2.3 and 1.6 bWAR as a 26 and 27YO, followed by 4.9 as a 29YO and on pace for a 5.0 as a 30YO. So advantage Lopez as a 26-28YO, advantage Ryan in the Arb1 and Arb2 years. But in Lopez's extension, they were buying his 29-32YO years, whereas a 4-year extension for Ryan would be his 32-35YO years. And then there's inflation, but I'd think your 4/$100M is approaching top end. Or put it this way, I'm not sure I'd want to go any further. Or maybe it's 3/$84M-ish. I'd honestly wait until year end for the conversation, however. If it does end up going the trade route, I'm not sure you'd get much more for him at the deadline than you do at year end. That also buys more time for sifting and sorting amongst the rest of the rotation and even gets you closer to seeing Lopez's rehab situation. On trading Ryan, people think they would get about what they got on Berrios for his 1+ seasons of control, but they need to ask for significantly more. Berrios' best bWAR was 3.6 and he had 1.9 at the deadline when he was traded. Ryan's best is 4.5 and he's already at 2.4 for this year. All in all, I don't trade Ryan. I would gladly start next season with Ryan, Lopez, turning-it-around Ober, the Bradley that has 1.4 bWAR in the 13 starts (or pace for about 3.3 over 32 starts, but also a year older/improved), Abel, Prielipp, Zebby, Festa, Rojas... 1b) Jeffers. Yes, try to extend him, though that's probably not happening. Listen to offers, but I'm not sure you're going to get a 2027-ready major leaguer for approximately 32 games of him (I'm using that the Twins have 49 games after the deadline and catchers play about two-thirds). If you don't get a 2027-ready guy, I'd rather play out the string and roll the dice on this year. See note 4. 3b) The two relievers you mentioned are Banda and Rogers. Keep Banda. Take out an eight-day stretch in April and his ERA is 2.03. He hasn't given up an earned run in more than a month. This is on the heels of 3.18 and 3.08 seasons. That's essentially 2022-24 Jax. That's a guy you build on, not trade. Give Rogers a choice. If he wants to pursue a playoff spot, trade him. But you're not going to get much. He's frankly worth more in veteran leadership than he is in lottery ticket, so unless he wants to go, keep him around. And furthermore, at year-end, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to resign him for another $1-$2M. 3a) Mixed feelings on Larnach. I do wonder if he has a future with the Twins, but in a sense he's insurance for the herd of rookies not panning out. Consider trading. And sure, trade Bell if there is a taker. With what we've seen of Lewis, Bell isn't going to get many at bats the rest of the way anyway. Freeing up at bats for young guys is probably worth more to the team than whatever they'd get for Bell. Two years ago, he was traded for a PTBNL, and his OPS+ is pretty much the same now as what it was then. 2) Yep, pretty much. Aside from the guys mentioned, it's all about sifting and sorting through the options to know what offseason holes remain: Buxton is the solution in CF. Is Lewis the solution at 1B? Is Lee the solution at 3B? Is Culpepper the solution at SS (assuming he's not out long)? (And while we're at it, move Houston up to Wichita.) Is Keaschall the solution at 2B? Is the LF/RF/DH solution found amongst Martin/Roden/Rodriguez/Gonzalez/Mendez/Jenkins, and yeah, Larnach and a rejuvenated Wallner? Is there still a place for Clemens? 4) Same conclusion. The FO will get ripped on for doing very little, but I think that's the best option. The rotation outlined above and a good number of yeses from the bulleted list is a great start to the offseason. Add a bullpen that has been sorted to the point of having at least five or six knowns (and I think that's very reasonable as they continue working through options with half a season remaining). They'll have to deal with catcher, but with so little financial commitment to these guys, that's why I give serious consideration to the overpay-QO on Jeffers.

Yes, Lopez. Apologies for any unnecessary heart palpitations.

Thanks for the clarification on the surgery. And yes, I was intending to reference Lopez. Apologies.

@The Great Hambino, could you please do us all a favor and save your this post on your clipboard so it's available as a comment for each of the "Trade Buxton" posts we're going to see over the next 15 months? If you'd like to incorporate @Riverbrian's excellent observation on another post that the reworking of Buxton's contract that would be necessary for him to approve a trade is only going to lessen the trade return, that would be fine as well.

Excellent point, that is too often overlooked. Said another way, he is worth more to the Twins than he is to other teams.

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. EDIT: I meant Lopez.

Drafting Mauer No. 1 and trading Pierzynski for Nathan and more also turned out pretty well...

For example, it's hard to evaluate Jeffers' market when he's on the IL and it's not clear when he will be back...

To clarify, I clicked "like" for the picture, not for the caption.

I'm not quite sure which is the better long-term sight -- the Lewis swing at the beginning of the clip or the Lewis/Buxton hug at the end of it. I hate playing amateur psychologist, but I just have a sense that Lewis is better off with Buxton's positive affirmation leadership style than to Correa's perfectionism. And I didn't have a problem with Correa, but different people respond differently to different styles. The Lewis reaction in the front end of the dugout looked like happiness, but the Lewis/Buxton moment felt like a deeper-seated joy.

I've no problem with your saying Hill was hot. That's reporting, and he was. I was reacting to now getting a declarative statement from someone telling us that it is time to be concerned. We weren't just told that Hill has struggled the past while, but that we should be "worried," as if we can't decide on our own whether we should be "worried." I get it -- it's the internet and declarative statements lead to clicks. But I'd rather just have the reporting and come to my own conclusions.

Oh, how a few weeks changes things on TD. From about three weeks ago...

And if Rogers reaches a point of being sought after, I'd actually consider going the opposite direction and giving him a modest one year extension. He's only getting $2M this year, and he'll be a year older. I suspect the same amount would get it done and have a spot filled for 2027. (Emphasis is on "reaches a point of being sought after.")

If Gomez proves himself legit, don't trade him. With his years of control, that's exactly the kind of guy they should be trading for. (Also, if he's legit and gets traded for prospects, I'm not sure I can handle another bazillion "I can't believe we traded Gomez for nothing" articles and comments on TD.)

Just another castoff retreat. That's sarcasm, but without going back and checking, I'm guessing that's a lot of the reaction the waiver claim got a month ago. I don't know whether he'll maintain his success long-term, but this is exactly how the Twins should be approaching the bullpen this year -- claim and make cheap trades for guys, give them up to 20 innings or so to see if they've got something and then move on if they don't. Meanwhile, keep bringing up internal guys for cups of coffee, focusing on the long-term developmental nature of those. I've said it elsewhere, but this is a season of sifting and sorting. Any success this year is bonus, but if they end the season with a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, et. al, and a stable of at least 5 or 6 "knowns" in the bullpen, that's a contending staff. Pair it with continued sifting and sorting on the hitter side, and I think contending in 2027 is very possible.

Whether or not he should be in the Hall is debatable. What I think is not debatable is that he shouldn't have been a one-and-done. Realistically, he got penalized for being on a strong ballot with a strong batch of first-timers. Chipper and Thome were elected as first-ballot. Vizquel, Rolen and Andruw Jones were also on the ballot for the first time. Twelve guys ahead of him eventually got in, but voters can only vote for 10. Additionally, there was a huge group of PED-linked players (Clemens, Bonds, Ramirez, Sheffield, Sosa) who were siphoning off votes. I'm not arguing that these guys should or shouldn't be elected, but the five of them received 453 combined votes from the 421 voters, when it was pretty clear that at least Ramirez, Sheffield and Sosa weren't going to make it. Without the selections that went to those five, I think Santana would have easily gotten the extra 12 votes he needed to stay on the ballot.

There is a difference between a long lockout and missing games. There was a long lockout in the 2021-22 offseason, the second-longest stoppage in MLB history (1994), but it didn't cost any games. The season was delayed a week, but they made up to postponed games. The current CBA ends on Dec. 1, so a lockout could start then. If like last time, there will be a flurry of signings before that date. Hopefully there is enough institutional memory on both sides to get a deal done before games are canceled.

There’s no need to fill the 40-man until they have someone they want to activate. Having an open spot allows them to make a waiver claim without having to DFA someone.

I also thought you were talking about Jeffers.