IndianaTwin

Quote snipped for brevity, with two phrases bolded for emphasis. I agree throughout, Doc, and applaud you for emphasizing the notion of context. There is nearly always more to the situation than meets the eye. You didn't reference the infamous, "I don't do that slump thing" comment. Let's look at the context. Royce missed most of the beginning of the season because of injury. We know the stories of him battling back through injury, We can imagine the frustration he felt at finally being healthy and getting hurt in the first game of the season after going two-for-two with a homer. And then he battled back from injury, returning on June 4 and going on a tear. After a doubleheader on June 16 he was .390 with a 1.398 OPS in his relatively small sample size. And then he went 0-for-5, dropping his average to .348 and OPS to 1.252. What does a good player do after a day like that? Focuses on having a better day tomorrow. And Royce did -- and he bounced back and went 4 for 7 with two home runs the next two days, putting the average back up to .377 and the OPS to 1.376. I didn't hear the interview, but I used to be a journalist. If I go to him after the second game, my opening comment is something like, "Wow, Royce. You went 0 for 5 on Friday night, but you really bounced back yesterday and today." And Royce said, "I don't do that slump thing." What do we have? We have a young, exuberant player, celebrating that he's back and healthy, celebrating that he bounced back from a rough game to put together a couple good games. He's such a positive-energy guy (at least was at that point) that I couldn't help but hearing him saying, "Yeah, I had a rough game Friday night, but I know you can't dwell on that, because then you start to spiral down. It's important to bounce back as quickly as you can. I focus on the positive -- I don't do that slump thing." Again, I didn't hear the interview. But frankly, that's the attitude I want in a talented athlete. Is he saying he's never going to have a bad game? No player is dumb enough to say that. Is he even saying he's never going to have a bad week? I don't think so. To me, he's saying that when those things happen, he's going to focus on getting out of the bad streak rather than focusing on the bad stretch to the point that it turns into something bigger, to the point it turns into a thing in his head. Unfortunately, after a couple more games (when 3 for 9 brings your average down), he then had one of those weeks, going 2 for 25 over an eight-day period. And he got excoriated for it, with people never letting him hear the end of it. We like to tear people down in our society, so when someone is going good, we can't wait to see him fail. I confess to being guilty of that too often. That's the context I see. I don't have a TV package, so I haven't seen him play many games, but from things I've read and the few interviews I've heard, it sure seems like that was the point that started sucking the joy out of him. And with every failure, with every thing he says that people don't like, it gets piled on deeper. My hope? The right new manager and Buxton make a visit to his house in November, with the message, "We care about you. We believe in you." And then Buxton takes him under his wing as a mentor. Byron's been through similar stuff, both the unrealistic expectations and the struggles with injuries. As you said, "If he ONLY turns out to be a .270 hitter with 30+ Dbls and 20+ HR and an acceptable OB%, that's still a very good and valuable player." I just hope that if he does that, people will allow themselves to cheer for him. ---------------------------- EDIT to add: I just found the full original quote. "I don't do that slump thing,'" Lewis said June 20, 2024 after responding to an 0-for-5 game with three hits, including a homer that broke the scoreboard in left field. "That's not a real thing for me. I understand that that's a thing, baseball, you're going to go into a slump or whatever, but for me, I don't have that mindset. It's a new day." I got no problem with that as a full quote.

Thanks for reminding me of the specific injury, Trov. I remember folks pretty immediately saying he came back too quickly. That was probably the case, but if I recall correctly, that was about the time they were in such desperate times that they really didn't have a choice. It was when they signing guys like Clemens and Jonah Bride off the DFA list. His rehab stint wasn't even long enough to play back-to-back days on defense, so it's not surprising he struggled early.

And perhaps a bit off-topic in that it doesn't pertain specifically to this Lewis article, but hats off to @Matt Braun. This arbitration series has been the most enjoyable TD content I've read this offseason. Keep 'em coming.

To @Cris E's point about being hurt the first half of the year, note the following. Still not to his potential in the second half, but a noticeable difference. Note as well the comment about the halves being determined by the All-Star Break. The Twins only had 66 games after the break and he played 64. I'm guessing he wasn't fully healthy, but for that stretch he certainly showed he could play (nearly) every day. And 66 games is 41 percent of the season, so this is 27 HR, 96 RBI with 29 SB-level play over a full season. Personality speculation abounds on TD, but I also get the sense that Lewis will respond better to Buxton's type of leadership than to Correa's. With the down price he's going to get, this is one of the easiest decisions in the mix. I predict the Twins get an incredible bargain on him in 2026.

"Dramatic loss of sprint speed" that still generated 12 stolen bases, including eight in the month of September when the breaks were taken off the team.

It appears Prato was let go at some point. He finished the season in Indianapolis in the Pirate system.

Thanks, Bean, for this summary. Looking at his game logs and pitch counts, he looks like another (see Raya above) where they have used a very structured buildup of days off and pitch counts. At SABR this year, when the Twins braintrust described their pitcher development, they spoke of building an individualized program for each person after the player has spent a year in the system and they've had a chance to gather data. It seems logical that they would prioritize keeping the highest-regarded guys closest to their structure, which seems to speak positively as to how they view Prielipp. His results weren't top-notch at Wichita, though he did have a 4:1 k:bb and struck out 10.7/9. But given that they finished him with four starts at St. Paul, it seems to point to beginning the year at St. Paul and being near the top of the SP list after whatever's left of Lopez/Ryan/Ober/SWR and then Bradley/Abel/Matthews, etc. If that puts him somewhere around No. 10, that points to him potentially getting the call for at least a couple starts if effective in St. Paul and a potential Liriano treatment if he's banked good starts and the team can get some effective innings out of him in a pennant race. I could live with that for 2026.

I was once going through the rack of game-used jerseys at the team store, lamenting that they cost too much for my budget. Then there was one that had my surname, thanks to the roster presence of a middle reliever with that name. I bought it and wore it to Puckett's HOF induction ceremony, where a guy said, "You must be related to (said reliever), because nobody but a family member has one of his jerseys." It's not an uncommon name, so I'm guessing I could wear it to a game these days and hardly a person there would know it's an actual player.

Reminds one of the Uecker story, from his days of doing games with Cosell, who apparently didn't appreciate Uecker too much. Uecker: Some story contradicting Cosell. Cosell: Don't be so truculent. You probably don't even know what truculent means. Uecker: Sure I do. If I borrowed your pickup, that would be the truc-u-lent.

You had me at "went to college in Iowa." -"FromIowaButLiveInIndianaTwin" was too long to be a screen name. But seriously, Indian Hills is a top-notch program to have been part of the journey. From Wikipedia: Now known as the Warriors, the baseball team has made 12 appearances at the JUCO World Series in Grand Junction, CO. Since the program's inception in 1961, Indian Hills has totaled more than 120 alumni who signed or were drafted to play professional baseball. As of 2022, 10 alumni are either playing or coaching at the professional level.

First column is 2024, second is 2025. Raya may indeed end up in the bullpen, but he's been lengthened as a starter. I suspect the last number of outings in 2025 were about "load management" as they were about a transition to the pen. The last games were very structured. First it was 2.2 innings (the 30-pitch game and then five days later, then several outings spaced four days apart and then three games spaced three days apart. I do agree with your takes on the others.

Blue Jays? Orioles? Cardinals? I love trains, and I live in a town with multiple tracks because it's near a major yard, so I'm used to having to wait pretty regularly. But I love riding them. Mrs. IT and I are finalizing a trip on the Southwest Chief from Chicago to L.A., timed to coordinate with Iowa basketball games at UCLA and USC. I guess that means my favorite birds to watch are Hawks. And yeah, the art. I've wondered too how people pull off putting paint on train cars. I'm not smart enough to know where there are gang markings or other inappropriate stuff, but it sure looks like some of those folks are pretty gifted artists.

I would consider a split contract that pays on the scale of $1.4M for days on the MLB roster and an above-average rate for days on the minor league roster. If I'm understanding it correctly (and someone will correct me if I'm not), that doesn't tie up the 40-man spot, but keeps him as the known-quantity option for addition later. If he has comfort with the organization, that might be the guarantee he needs. I'm not sure that he'd get a major league offer elsewhere, so the above-average minor league rate could be attractive.

I didn't go to the work of checking this, but it would be interesting to see how many debuts happened after July 31 compared to previous years. Like you, I'd assume there were significantly more. Comparatively speaking the bullpen makeup seemed relatively stable in the first two-thirds of the year.

Which is why I've never been so overly anxious about there being too many LH batting outfielders on the roster. All else being equal, as long Buxton is in CF, my preference would be for the two best hitters among other outfielders to be LH (or switch hitter). (That's not a Larnach-specific post, but rather one about the overall angst people seem to have on this topic.)

Larnach's reduced overall numbers this year were mainly a reflection in a changed usage pattern. His OPS against righties (.759) this year was exactly his career average. What brought his overall numbers down was that he had 21 percent of his plate appearances against lefties, whereas prior to that he had only had 17 percent of his PAs against lefties. In his best year (2024), less than 6 percent of his PAs were against lefties. There's still a significant platoon split, but his OPS against lefties this year (.608) was somewhat better than the .571 he had accumulated against lefties in prior years. I agree that it's borderline on tendering him, but a lot may come down to whether they think there is more improvement in the tank against lefties.

They used 37 pitchers, including Ober, Paddack, Matthews, Lopez and Bradley, who only started; SWR, Ryan and Festa, who each appeared once as a reliever; and Fitzgerald, Clemens, Bride and Castro, who each relieved as position players. So overall, 25 "traditional" relief pitchers. They used 38 pitchers in 2022, but I didn't look to see which ones only started and how many position players were used.

Indeed, his career seems to have already had enough ACTS. It’s pretty much PETERed out and left his chances in the JOHN.

It seems they can err on the side of being generous with protecting people. They only have 39 on the 40-man right now, including Roden as their only 60-day IL guy. Subtract free agents Vazquez and Cabrera and they are down to 37, even before looking at dropping the Gaspers and Mirandas of the world.

A few tidbits on Ryan's perspective, from the postgame interview Friday night at: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6667145/2025/09/27/joe-ryan-twins-start-trade-offseason/ “At the end of the day, I see the big picture and the decisions they’ve made, and I think they’re good decisions and the trajectory of the organization is positive,” Ryan said. “I think they’re doing a really good job of working with what we have and making the right decisions on the field right now and putting a little more pressure on teams. The young guys that are stepping up, obviously, there have been a couple of rocky outings here and there, but for the most part, guys like Taj (Bradley) and Mick (Abel), those guys look really good.” Whereas the Twins never got close to trading Ryan in July — multiple team sources said Boston made an incomplete offer only 15 minutes before the deadline... “I felt like I was in shock for a couple of weeks after (the deadline), and then it kind of settled in,” Ryan said. “(My future) is so far out of my control. But it seems like the team is making good decisions from the front office and coaching staff down to give ourselves a chance to win a couple more ballgames. … I think the team’s going to be in a really good spot going forward. “Hopefully we’ll make a couple of other moves and see where that goes, but I’m not too worried about that.” Ryan has obviously learned the business side of things, but to me, these feel more like the quotes of a player planning/wanting/expecting to be around than a player expecting to be traded. They seem especially noteworthy from a guy perceived to be expecting to leave.

What would be a common time period before it wears off and a new injection would be needed?

Thanks. Did you mean you think the top SEVEN are for sures? (Not questioning, just clarifying.)

Speaking of Rule 5, where can I find a list of Twins prospects who would be Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man?

Two of us saying, "I heard this is going to happen," makes it a fact on the Internet, right? 😀

People are down on Falvey (not unreasonably), so it's hard for some to see any possibilities for next year, but I think yours is an excellent take, particularly in your reminder that directions change (as they should). I wish I could find the article, but I read quotes from Falvey this week where his words when talking about Lopez, Ryan and Ober sounded like an intent to build on them. It would have been easy for his response to the question to be, "We really like those three, but we're also pleased with how Abel and Bradley do this and how Matthews and SWR to this, etc. We think we can rely on our young pitchers for years to come." Instead, he used specifics in talking about what each of Lopez, Ryan and Ober bring to the table and how they would look atop a rotation. As you note, they should listen to every offer, but I read his tone as a sign of hope -- in the vein of what you are saying, that the price to actually move one would be very high. And much as I hope they keep all three, if someone does offer a massive overpay, I agree they should take it.