IndianaTwin

Add Clemens and Sands as Arb 1. But Paddack, Vazquez, Castro and Coulombe take nearly $27MM off the books. Correa gets a $5MM pay cut. Bader has a $10MM mutual option, but those are rarely exercised. Topa has a $2MM team option. That’s not much, but at this point, I’m not sure that he’s earned having it picked up.

Don't know how many kids you have, but you need more. And start celebrating half-birthdays as well. (And if it wasn't your own kid, you need more friends with kids.)

He’d pitched in 43 career games when this screen shot was pulled last night. I think you are misreading the format. The 41 games in the first line and the 41 in the second line are the same games. And then in 33 of those games he’s at least started through the lineup a third time and one time got to a fourth time. (Which also refutes the theory that Rocco “never lets SWR face a batter the third time,” given it’s happened more than 80 percent of the time. I assume that his two relief appearances were as a bulk pitcher after an opener, since he got to the third time through in both of those as well.)

Puckett was picked in the January draft. I suspect this is only looking at the June drafts. It would be interesting to see what other picks from the January draft have been significant. Best pick in the late rounds is Hrbek in the 17th, and you could say that even if you defined the "late picks" as starting in the fourth round. At worst, he's their third-best pick ever, behind only Mauer and Blyleven (with the caveat of not counting Puckett's January selection).

The Autumnians have been more successful in October.

Ricardo Olivar likes me on holidays. Last year on Mother’s Day in South Bend, I saw him triple in the winning runs in the top of the 10th. This year on Father’s Day, I saw him homer in Wichita.

Beautiful day in Wichita

Interesting tidbits from Civale's baseball-reference.com page, by the way. His "most similar by ages" score at age 27 and 28 is Joe Ryan. His "most similar through age 29" scores have Michael Pineda at No. 2 and Anthony DeSclafani at No. 3. At least I thought it was interesting. I guess interesting is in the eye of the beholder.

Agreed, though in going to the Sox, I'm guessing he's still on the market. Seems likely he'll get flipped again by the end of July.

Oops -- I cut and pasted the wrong sentence! Thanks for the catch. The summary of Civale's season was correct, however -- a bad start, an IL stint and four starts with overall decent numbers, albeit in shortish starts.

"His ERA now sits at 5.74 after struggling to start the season." By "struggling to start the season," you mean that he had a single crummy start before going on the IL. In his four starts since coming off the IL he has a 3.32 ERA. ----------- EDIT: chpettit caught that I cut and pasted the wrong sentence. The part I just bolded is a summary of Civale's season.

I see what you did there, @Matt Braun. I caught it while surfin' Safari over lunch.

Yogi said that 90 percent of the game is half mental, so that figures in somewhere as well.

Your comment provides opportunity for a general question to the group. Has anyone seen numbers on standard deviations or confidence intervals on OPS+ at various sample sizes? So for a batter with 2500+ plate appearances (e.g., Bader here), what's the +/- where 90 percent of seasons with 500 plate appearances will appear? As in, is there a 5 percent likelihood of a guy with that many PAs to have an OPS 22 points above his career average? A 15 percent likelihood? Or 2 percent? It seems like this would be relatively easy for someone (not me) to do, but I don't recall seeing it anywhere.

Because criticizing Rocco is what we do on TD? /s And while arguably still in the SSS category, though the percentage of his plate appearances against lefties has increased to 21 percent this year (compared to 18 percent for his career), his OPS against lefties this season (.470) is even worse than his career average. Keep working on growth opportunities for Larnach to hit lefties, sure, but as a general rule, Bader should definitely be starting over him against lefties.

Good point. Now Minnesota will be a more attractive destination for free agents…

Agree on the time clock, including having a similar experience with watching some old games a few years ago. Like Possumlad, I'm finding that wife is able to tolerate multiple innings. Speaking of rule changes, are these time stats counting all games or just those with nine innings? I still greatly dislike the Manfred Man rules, but it has clearly had an effect on the length of extra inning games. I miss the fluky things that came into play with the occasional really long game, even the effect that it had on future games because of bullpen deletion. If they truly needed the Manfred Man, I could have tolerated playing, say, two more "normal" innings before going that route. Holding a team scoreless in the top of the inning and then winning with a walkoff bloop single or a wild pitch (which wouldn't have been a wild pitch with no one on base) and a sac fly is about as anticlimactic as it gets.

Does Funderburk have options left? Because 40 pitches from the No. 8 guy in the bullpen often leads to a transaction. (I recognize that Alcala make be more deserving of an exit, but I'm operating from the assumption that the Twins aren't yet ready to cut bait.)

I've been one of the bigger complainers about Gladden over the years, but I actually think he's improved this year. I haven't heard nearly as much name-butchering and the camaraderie between him and Atteberry feels more genuine (though not necessarily enjoyable). On Opening Day, he actually said the couple of Spanish names correctly when doing the lineups. I've often said that if he spent even an hour getting a lesson in Spanish phonics from a native Spanish-speaker it would go a long way in not making him sound so much like a doofus. It seems like he may have done that. But yeah, not looking forward to nine innings of play-by-play the next several days.

You could break this into four posts and I'd give a "like" on each.

Thanks. That's helpful. I do see some significant differences from the Twins current situation. That trade happened in late July as opposed to early June. At the time of the trade, the Tigers were four games under .500 after losing six of their last nine. They were five games out of the last wild card and had to pass five teams to get to the playoffs. I don't know how much stock to put in the "playoff expectancy" calculations, but I'd have to assume theirs was pretty low at the time. I was going to say that at best, the Tigers probably saw themselves as marginal contenders, but given that they traded Andrew Chafin and Mark Canha that day as well, it seems they were pretty clearly in seller mode. However, one of the one of the teams ahead of them, ahem, collapsed, so they ended up sneaking in to the playoffs with the last spot. Hindsight's 20/20, but I have to wonder if come October, they were kicking themselves for having made the trade. If the Twins reach the point the Tigers were at when they traded Flaherty, I'm fine with trading Paddack then. But they aren't there yet. Separately, that trade may also be an example of what the Twins could expect to get for Paddack. Flaherty had more track record and was having a better season than Paddack and all the Tigers got were the Dodgers No. 8 and 22 prospects at the time. The former was in High A at the time and the latter was a No. 1 pick, but currently has a 77 career OPS+ in the majors. They certainly weren't needle-movers as it related to 2024.

Out of curiosity, when's the last time a contending team traded a starting pitcher on pace for a 2.5 WAR season?

From the OP: They send players down on the eve of an off day and delay the promotion or recall of a replacement until after the break. Ryan Fitzgerald, Mickey Gasper, David Festa, Eiberson Castellano, and Edouard Julien have all been subject to this strategy. -------------------------------------- Let's take a look at this "strategy": Fitzgerald was sent down on the 22nd and Correa not activated until the 23rd. First, why keep Fitzgerald on the roster when he can go across town and play in St. Paul? Second, why activate Correa before he's needed on the 23rd, in case he has a setback from the injury (or has some fluke injury with a water bottle or something)? Gasper's first demotion was on an off day, but they recalled Lewis the same day, so that doesn't fit the "strategy." Gasper's second demotion was also on an off day, but they didn't have any choice but to send him back down the next day -- he had been called up to be the 27th man in a double header. First, Festa wasn't sent down on an off day. Second, he's a pitcher. If he's not going to make the next start, it makes strategic sense to send him down. They called up Gasper and had an extra position player for a day before activating Lopez in time for his start. Third, had they waited a day to send Festa in order to give him an extra day of service time/pay, they would taken the pay/service time from Gasper, so it's a wash for the budget. Castellano was sent back to Philly during spring training. Not sure how this forwards the premise. Julien's was demoted on an off day, but Castro was activated the same day. Doesn't fit the premise. And as others have said, the travel plan makes no sense to send McCusker to Seattle, just to send him back home. It's hard for me to see a nefarious plot here.

Mainly it says that having a faster runner is better than having a slower runner and that Bader in left and Castro at third is a better defensive alignment for the last half-inning than Castro in left and Lewis at third. They probably would have made the same substitution if Lewis was hitting .400.

Hey, if calling it a "formula" means that we don't have to put up with all the "Rocco only manages his pitching by spreadsheet" comments, I'm cool with that.