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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    Actually, a few years ago, they did state their intentions early in the offseason and got excoriated for it.
  2. IndianaTwin
    I think I can shorten this article: Guys who are this list in the way that Astudillo was once considered a CF by virtue of playing a couple innings there on a 100-degree day when others were dropping like flies* -- they ain't gonna be in the OF this year (2): Lewis, Keaschall. Likely DFAs when the roster spot is needed (4): Gasper, McKusker, Fitzgerald, Kreidler. Guys too far away, but voting "present" (4): Rosario, Mendez, Olivar, Fedko. Now we are down to the 10 remaining: Buxton -- Duh. Wallner -- A career 127 OPS+ has to get dibs on extended playing time, despite last year's downturn (that still was 113). Larnach -- Enough ink has been spilled elsewhere, so I don't need to rehash. He's a starter (LF or DH) until he isn't on the roster. Roden, Martin, Outman -- Guys who have shown snippets of MLB success, each with some redeemable quality. Outman has no options, so he plays himself on or off the roster in spring training. Clemens -- Yeah, he's on the list, but not really. Could be in the previous bullet except that infield is really his path. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez -- will each get a shot at some point, either because of injury or from beating down the door (assuming they stay healthy themselves). *I remember, because I was lodged in the upper deck at Wrigley, with no air movement.
  3. IndianaTwin
    It would actually be an interesting exercise (in a macabre sort of way) to crowdsource the projected order of DFA, or at least what our order would be. I agreed on Kiersey first. McCusker and Kreidler are next for me, followed by Gasper. (Hopefully following the signing of Coulombe...)
  4. IndianaTwin
    Thanks. That's older than I realized -- I was thinking of it in terms of his not having had much MLB opportunity yet. See my comment above about catchers developing later. EDIT to add: When I went to baseball-reference.com to see his number of MLB PAs (118 over two seasons), it actually lists his position as "Catcher and Pitcher." Apparently 3.1 innings will do that!
  5. IndianaTwin
    Don't forget Gasper. To me, he was the floor and Pereda is still in the "prospect" category. I think it makes sense to DFA Kiersey first because of the imbalance of OFs and INFs, but I think getting Jackson makes it even easier to DFA Gasper when it comes his turn. Jackson becomes the current backup (emphasis on current, because it's still so early in the offseason) and Pereda remains as the prospect.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I'm responding to your comment, LC, but it could just as easily be responding to several above. Jackson may well regress to his historical average. But he also may not. I remember a Bill James article stating that the most common position player to defy the aging curve is the backup catcher. Because of the emphasis on defense for catchers (and which Jackson apparently provides), AAAA catchers have to focus their energies on that side of the ball if they are going to stick. As a result, their offensive development often lags behind their defensive development and some do improve into their 30s. It's hard for a starting catcher to improve in their 30s because their body has taken such a pounding, but that's much less of an issue for a career backup like Jackson. I'd also note that he was a No. 6 overall pick, so there's some sense of pedigree. And let's not overlook the fact that he's a Christmas baby, so maybe he'll be a gift for us! 😀
  7. IndianaTwin
    For pretty much any team, more transactions are about nudging the needle than they are about making a splash. This is one more of many of the former (see Orze, Eric) that will happen before Opening Day. For the reasons others have noted above, it makes sense in that context.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Out-of-market streaming: MLB.TV remains the option for out-of-market viewers (with the usual stupid blackout rules). FTFY. With games against two ALC teams and two NLC teams blacked out here, that's roughly 20 percent of the games not being available on MLB.TV. We get a few of those back because of the Sox being on our cable package. Annoying.
  9. IndianaTwin
    Alex Lange and his 26 saves from 2023.
  10. IndianaTwin
    And because of not being able to predict which ones it will be, it's hard for me to fault them for not locking guys into positions in the minor leagues. The FO gets bashed for not having guys focus on a single position, but with the (low) success rate (among all major leaguers, not just the Twins) and with a three-man (non-catching) bench, there has to be a fair number of guys able to play multiple positions. Just like there's been general acknowledgement on these pages that a team has to plan for something like 8-10 starting pitching options, a couple years ago I went back through some prior pages on baseball-reference.com and found that you have to anticipate that somewhere around 15-17 guys are going to get 100-150 plate appearances or more. The job of a front office is to get to the point of having that 15-17 guys at the beginning of the season that you feel confident in giving that many at bats. That can include a Jenkins, in that you can see him getting his 150 PAs from July or August on. I feel good about the 10-deep on the starting pitcher side. The challenge on the offensive side is that it's hard to imagine a 17. When you consider the need for depth, with the current collection of hitters, it's hard not to hope that Julien recovers something and fits there. But when you factor in the need for position flexibility and the lack of options, it's also hard not to think that he'd better come out of the gate swinging if he makes it to spring training.
  11. IndianaTwin
    I think the main thing this year's weak ballot does for Hunter is help keep him on the ballot another year or two. Hunter's a good example of a guy who got a few first-year votes from people willing to give him another year on the ballot, which they often do to get a handle on how other voters view the player. Given that he maxed out at 9.5 percent on his first ballot and has been below that the next four years (when viable candidates always go the opposite direction), there's a great likelihood he would have fallen off if he had more competition than Shin Soo Choo and Howie Kendrick. I'll predict 7 percent this year, followed by less than 5 percent next year, although next year's newcomers may be even weaker and the ballot may have also lost Beltran and Jones. I think Utley is the guy who is most going to benefit by these two weaker classes.
  12. IndianaTwin
    I don't read much into Falvey's comment. It feels a bit like he was saying, "Oh, yeah. Julien's still on the roster. I should probably mention him as well."
  13. IndianaTwin
    It’s a work in progress that will change many times between now and spring, but among the 19 pitchers on the 40 man roster, the current eight relievers appear to be: Sands, Topa, Funderburk and now Orze with more than 40 or so innings in the majors in their career. Adams and Ohl, who got cups of coffee. Prielipp and Raya as two that Falvey has specifically named as potential transitions to the bullpen. To go along with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Festa, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Morris, Rojas and Klein on the starter depth chart in some order. And that fills the 40-man roster, so future acquisitions will start DFAing guys. Let’s start with Coulombe for, say, Kreidler.
  14. IndianaTwin
    Hey, Siri -- go to New York in exchange for Orze.
  15. IndianaTwin
    There’s been an awful lot of ink spilled and letters typed based on one reporter referencing (not even quoting) an anonymous source speculating on what Buxton is thinking, even though that speculation is in direct contrast to what Buxton has explicitly said on multiple occasions.
  16. IndianaTwin
    From MLBTradeRumors: Elias also addressed the club’s catcher situation, saying that Adley Rutschman will be the club’s primary backstop. Rutschman once seemed well establish in that role but his performance has dipped in recent years. He had a .268/.369/.439 batting line through 2023 and was continuing in that fashion through the first half of 2024. However, he appeared to injure his hand when it was struck by a foul ball, which led to a .207/.282/.303 line in the second half of last year. It's not surprising that Basallo's presence would create "calls and texts about catchers," which is all the article in The Athletic says about Rutschman, but pretty much every article I've seen on Rutschman/Basallo has said that the Orioles don't view Basallo as a long-term catcher and that a time-share at the position would tilt in Rutschman's direction.
  17. IndianaTwin
    The best recent stat in my mind is playing 64 out of 66 games after the All-Star Break. If he has that kind of health in 2026, the results will be there.
  18. IndianaTwin
    I think that... Wallner (2025 OPS was .090 under his career average heading into the year), Lewis (2025 OPS was .124 under his career average heading the year) and Lopez (pitched about 85 innings fewer in 2025 than in his prior average season) ...will all regress toward their mean as well. Further, I think their improvement will more than outweigh the decline of: Buxton, whose OPS last year was virtually the same as for the prior four years -- he just played more games. Ryan, whose strong year generally followed the typical career progression (and perhaps a bit more) for a 29 YO and is now turning only 30. SWR, an average pitcher (as defined by OPS+) who will be replaced if he declines significantly. Clemens, a below-average hitter (again, measured by OPS+) who is perhaps (hopefully) the prime position player to be replaced this winter.
  19. IndianaTwin
    And though the Twins declined Justin Topa's option don't they still retain him, since he doesn't have the years of service to become a free agent?
  20. IndianaTwin
    How about a waiver claim on Alex Lange?
  21. IndianaTwin
    Gleyber Torres had a nice little bump as well. And Spencer Torkelson righted himself.
  22. IndianaTwin
    Sounds like Beauregard was able to color outside the lines in the choice to have Outman color inside the lines.
  23. IndianaTwin
    I wasn't as Rocco-averse as many (most) on TD, but sometimes a change is needed. I thought the same thing when I read the quotes, but in a different spot he says Baldelli "had consistently offered him encouragement." I try not to play amateur psychologist, because I'm not in the room, but I can't help but having a sense that Lewis didn't click with the player to his left. He seems like a player who would respond better to Buxton's leadership style than Correa's.
  24. IndianaTwin
    "Carolina in My Mind" (deservedly) gets huge props, but here's the Carolina song I love. Some of the instrumental riffs -- wow. Oh, and if your walk's in the Raleigh suburb of Fuquay-Varina and you see IT Jr., say "Hello." Also, tell him to move back to Indiana. I miss having him around.
  25. IndianaTwin
    Thing is, when they were honest/transparent a couple years ago and said that payroll would decrease, they got excoriated for it. The hints they've given this offseason have not suggested further decrease. If anything they've pointed some level of the other direction. But they've only been hints. If they came out and said that they were planning to increase and then it didn't turn out, they would be excoriated even more severely (if that's possible).
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