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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    Larnach's reduced overall numbers this year were mainly a reflection in a changed usage pattern. His OPS against righties (.759) this year was exactly his career average. What brought his overall numbers down was that he had 21 percent of his plate appearances against lefties, whereas prior to that he had only had 17 percent of his PAs against lefties. In his best year (2024), less than 6 percent of his PAs were against lefties. There's still a significant platoon split, but his OPS against lefties this year (.608) was somewhat better than the .571 he had accumulated against lefties in prior years. I agree that it's borderline on tendering him, but a lot may come down to whether they think there is more improvement in the tank against lefties.
  2. IndianaTwin
    They used 37 pitchers, including Ober, Paddack, Matthews, Lopez and Bradley, who only started; SWR, Ryan and Festa, who each appeared once as a reliever; and Fitzgerald, Clemens, Bride and Castro, who each relieved as position players. So overall, 25 "traditional" relief pitchers. They used 38 pitchers in 2022, but I didn't look to see which ones only started and how many position players were used.
  3. IndianaTwin
    Indeed, his career seems to have already had enough ACTS. It’s pretty much PETERed out and left his chances in the JOHN.
  4. IndianaTwin
    It seems they can err on the side of being generous with protecting people. They only have 39 on the 40-man right now, including Roden as their only 60-day IL guy. Subtract free agents Vazquez and Cabrera and they are down to 37, even before looking at dropping the Gaspers and Mirandas of the world.
  5. IndianaTwin
    A few tidbits on Ryan's perspective, from the postgame interview Friday night at: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6667145/2025/09/27/joe-ryan-twins-start-trade-offseason/ “At the end of the day, I see the big picture and the decisions they’ve made, and I think they’re good decisions and the trajectory of the organization is positive,” Ryan said. “I think they’re doing a really good job of working with what we have and making the right decisions on the field right now and putting a little more pressure on teams. The young guys that are stepping up, obviously, there have been a couple of rocky outings here and there, but for the most part, guys like Taj (Bradley) and Mick (Abel), those guys look really good.” Whereas the Twins never got close to trading Ryan in July — multiple team sources said Boston made an incomplete offer only 15 minutes before the deadline... “I felt like I was in shock for a couple of weeks after (the deadline), and then it kind of settled in,” Ryan said. “(My future) is so far out of my control. But it seems like the team is making good decisions from the front office and coaching staff down to give ourselves a chance to win a couple more ballgames. … I think the team’s going to be in a really good spot going forward. “Hopefully we’ll make a couple of other moves and see where that goes, but I’m not too worried about that.” Ryan has obviously learned the business side of things, but to me, these feel more like the quotes of a player planning/wanting/expecting to be around than a player expecting to be traded. They seem especially noteworthy from a guy perceived to be expecting to leave.
  6. IndianaTwin
    What would be a common time period before it wears off and a new injection would be needed?
  7. IndianaTwin
    Thanks. Did you mean you think the top SEVEN are for sures? (Not questioning, just clarifying.)
  8. IndianaTwin
    Speaking of Rule 5, where can I find a list of Twins prospects who would be Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man?
  9. IndianaTwin
    Two of us saying, "I heard this is going to happen," makes it a fact on the Internet, right? 😀
  10. IndianaTwin
    People are down on Falvey (not unreasonably), so it's hard for some to see any possibilities for next year, but I think yours is an excellent take, particularly in your reminder that directions change (as they should). I wish I could find the article, but I read quotes from Falvey this week where his words when talking about Lopez, Ryan and Ober sounded like an intent to build on them. It would have been easy for his response to the question to be, "We really like those three, but we're also pleased with how Abel and Bradley do this and how Matthews and SWR to this, etc. We think we can rely on our young pitchers for years to come." Instead, he used specifics in talking about what each of Lopez, Ryan and Ober bring to the table and how they would look atop a rotation. As you note, they should listen to every offer, but I read his tone as a sign of hope -- in the vein of what you are saying, that the price to actually move one would be very high. And much as I hope they keep all three, if someone does offer a massive overpay, I agree they should take it.
  11. IndianaTwin
    Also to be fair, Berrios' combined WAR for Toronto in the 1.5 seasons left on the contract was 0.9. The value he has provided to the Jays has primarily come in the time since he signed an extension, which by most accounts was unlikely to happen in Minnesota. So if you compare Berrios' 0.9 WAR to the 4.2 of SWR (so far) and whatever they get from Martin, the Twins definitely improved themselves with the trade. Additionally, the trade freed up money to use in the 21-22 offseason. There's no way to trace whether that was the money that paid for Urshela (good), Bundy (bad) or even a chunk of Correa (very good on that one-year contract), but it did give them additional flexibility that winter. Which also highlights that no trade can be completely dissected in isolation. Every trade has a context and a carryover to other decisions.
  12. IndianaTwin
    One of the things about regression to the mean is that it works both ways. It may be difficult (though certainly impossible) for Ryan to repeat generating 4.5 bWAR, for example, but it seems quite reasonable to expect more than 2.1 for Lopez and more than 1.1 for Ober if they are still on the roster. Between the three, it seems reasonable to think they will total more than 7.7 if they are still around. I actually think it could be a pretty attractive job. Expectations are not going to be high, but the potential is there to greatly exceed expectations. It seems like there are some similarities to the offseasons following 2016 and 2018.
  13. IndianaTwin
    "Pipeline" is like "Ace" in that each person has their own definition. Arguing about whether the team has achieved "Pipeline" status is about as helpful as arguing whether Lopez or Ryan is an "Ace."
  14. IndianaTwin
    "Since moving to Minnesota in 1961, only the Yankees, Astros, Cardinals, and Giants have accumulated more fWAR from primary center fielders than the Twins." When one considers that Mantle and Mays racked up some of that fWAR, that's not too shabby company.
  15. IndianaTwin
    So how do you really feel about Cabrera, Old Crow? 😀
  16. IndianaTwin
    With today's outing by SWR, the six starters went 36 innings and gave up just three runs over the last time through the rotation.
  17. IndianaTwin
    I'm impressed with a .912 OPS in the minors, including an .853 in AAA this year, where he was 4.3 years younger than average. He didn't have the plate appearances to qualify, but had he, that would have placed him 16th in the 20-team league.
  18. IndianaTwin
    To Rocco’s point about the starting pitching being good this trip, so far this week, it’s 3 ER in 30 innings by the five starters. Me likey.
  19. IndianaTwin
    I’m in the “it might take a little more” club, but another thing to consider is that he only needs 8.8 more bWAR to pass Hrbek and 13.3 to pass Oliva. Another four years like this one and he’s pushing Puckett. It’s not at all inconceivable to imagine a 25 hanging on the wall.
  20. IndianaTwin
    And speaking of bonuses, the second homer was a great way to celebrate his 533rd plate appearance, pocketing him an extra $500k in incentives.
  21. IndianaTwin
    Concur. Both would sign for more as non-tendered free agents than they will get through the arbitration process. If I’m another team interested in either, I call the FO and say, “If you are even thinking of non-tendering Lewis/Ober, don’t. Instead, tender him and trade him to us. We will give you Player X.”
  22. IndianaTwin
    The team has only had 59 games since the ASB. He actually has 10 HR and 12 SB in the span, which is 27 HR/33 SB pace. (He's played in 57 of those 59, by the way.) (Oops, Stringer Bell had already alluded to the ASB being on the late side. His average is also .254 since the break, essentially his career average of .257.)
  23. IndianaTwin
    Yeah, it was worth it, because then we didn't get subjected to a "Pablo Lopez Is Injured, But He Should Have Worked Harder to Come Back This Season" article. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
  24. IndianaTwin
    Of bigger note for Buxton than reaching 500 plate appearances is reaching 502, which earns him a $500k bonus. Finishing the game with 504, he needs just 29 more to have the next $500k kick in at 533.
  25. IndianaTwin
    Speaking of the perception business, don't look now, but Outman has three homers in the last week-plus. If he does that for another 10 games, that should make for interesting TD fodder over the winter. 😀
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