IndianaTwin

My name should be "IowaTwin," since that's where I'm from. I've just lived two-thirds of my life in Indiana. That to say that I don't know the details, but a couple years ago, both Iowa and Iowa State had multiple players suspended related to sports betting. From an ESPN article: "In May 2023, Iowa law enforcement and prosecutors, noting data showing that sportsbooks rarely flag their own bettors, acted on what Brian Sanger, an agent of the Iowa Department of Criminal Investigations, saw on that screen." A later quote says, "Iowa state law requires sportsbooks to report suspicious or illegal wagering activities, including the use of false identification." Lawsuits were filed, at least in part because of search warrant issues, and I don't how everything played out, but it points to law personnel having some sort of access to betting records. I assume similar things would play out in other states and with other athletes. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/40575467/inside-iowa-iowa-state-ncaa-gambling-investigation

I'd take this a step further. His off field actions like betting the horses, yadda, yadda, are problematic, but he was betting when he was on field. It was as a manager, rather than as a player, but that might actually be more egregious because of the amount he can control. As a player, he basically affects his several plate appearances and a few balls hit to him.

Like this year did for me, next year's ballot is also pretty soft. Beltran got 70 percent and Jones 66 this year. Those are close enough to have a good chance of getting in with the bump that usually happens when you get to that level. The next guy was Utley at 39.8 percent. Some of the talking heads were suggesting that he will likely get in next year, but I don't know that anyone has ever increased that amount in a single year. Tenth-year guys usually get a bump, but the only one is Manny (34 percent). He won't get that much of a bump. And among newcomers, the highest WAR is Cole Hamels, who is slightly below Buehrle (11.4 percent this year) and well behind Pettitte (27.9 percent). The next highest WAR, and highest among position players, is Ryan (PED) Braun at 47.1. The comparable for him is Curtis Granderson, who didn't use PEDs and got three votes.

Interesting article about Ehire Adrianza joining the staff, noting that the Twins reached out to him proactively before he had decided to retire: https://www.mlb.com/news/ehire-adrianza-twins-player-development-assistant

I've generally considered myself a "big Hall" guy and usually I choose the max 10 guys. This year's ballot seems soft to me, however. Ichiro's a no-brainer and I think Wagner will get in on his 10th try. Beyond that, I see a handful of guys that are on the edge, but not enough to get 10 on my imaginary ballot, particularly if I don't consider ARod and Manny. I've been a little perplexed by the support Sabathia has gotten. His stats are virtually identical to Pettitte's (Sabathia 251-161 vs. 256-153; 116 ERA+ vs. 117 ERA+; 62.3 WAR vs. 60.2). Both had great success in the postseason. Sabathia has a bit higher peak, but only won one Cy Young, and that was over three guys who had very similar stats. Frankly, Mark Buehrle's stats are quite similar to the two of them (59.1 WAR; 117 ERA+), with less postseason success and less longevity, but he hasn't topped 11 percent. Pettitte was in the Mitchell Report, but claimed it was a two-day injury rehab thing and his career doesn't show the kind of arc common to other users. Is that enough to provide the difference between Pettitte never topping 18 percent in his six years to date and Sabathia tracking at over 92 percent in the public balloting to date and seeming like a shoo-in? And Buehrle was clean, so is there enough difference in postseason and longevity to warrant the discrepensy in support for him, which has never topped 11 percent? (And it pains me to type that question about a White Sox guy.) And I get that Schilling was a jerk, but his numbers are way better than any of these three.

I'm guessing they'll all be reporting to spring training in the "best shape of (their) life." 😀 But seriously, is the first year we've had for a while of entering spring training with no known 60-day IL moves pending?

You were the first to mention Henriquez. He has no options left. If he is healthy and reasonably effective in spring training, I think he will make the team. If, miracle of miracles, everyone would make it through spring training healthy and with some modicum of success, Henriquez would get the nod over Topa because of their option status. Similarly, given their liking to keep all options open, I think they will give the Rule 5 pick every opportunity to succeed.

Agreed. I'm guessing that neither Lewis nor Lee prefers moving to second, but it seems likely that one will do that, based on what the needs are. TD articles/comments have been complaining that MLB Network didn't give Jax the "Top 10" label that he deserved. When looking at where the "proven" depth is on the roster, I'd rather have Jax as a stud setup/back up closer than as a potential 4/3/2/IL starter.

I hope it doesn't. With a four-man bench, the only way you can afford to have three catchers is if at least one of them plays a lot at another position or a couple of them hit well enough to DH a fair amount.

But speaking of erratic, if I'm a Cleveland fan, I'm asking myself what the chances are of getting this many innings out of guys a second year in a row with virtually no injuries. In order, Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Sandlin, Avila. I could have clipped one more and gotten Barlow's 55 innings. I couldn't find an easy way to find innings pitched in relief, but in terms of games pitched in relief, Cleveland had guys who ranked tied for second, tied for fifth and two guys tied for ninth, plus tied for 34th and tied for 58th. That seems very hard to sustain.

Castellano has to pass the Audition Guy test before getting moved into the Vulture role. What's the Audition Guy test? Read on. Here's my full bullpen roster: Closer. 8th Inning Guy: He becomes the Closer if Closer is n/a. 7th Inning Guy No. 1: He becomes the 8th inning guy if closer is n/a. 7th Inning Guy No. 2: He's the other option for the 7th inning guy, since on most days, one of the three guys above are n/a. Strand Guy: The guy who comes in with runners on base or to otherwise complete an inning. Vulture: Described above, he's the guy who comes in when the game is tied or down a run or two, particularly in the fifth, sixth or even the seventh, when you don't want to use one of the five guys above, but you want to keep it close enough for the hitters to come through. Long Guy/Shuttle Guy: The guy who takes one for the team in blowouts and other short starts. Preferably has an option, since he'll get sent to St. Paul after the game. If he doesn't have an option, he's the guy who's going to get DFAed. At some level, he's also an Audition Guy, hoping to pitch well enough to move up the food chain. Audition Guy: The guy who has just been called up, perhaps as an injury replacement. Gets used in the lowest leverage roles. He's up until he shows that he's ready to move into the one of the upper roles (probably 7th inning Guy 2) or that he's not ready, so he gets sent down for the next Audition Guy. A Rule 5 guy goes here until they earn their way up the ladder or earn a return trip to their former team. If there were no injuries in spring training*, here's where I'd start. Closer: Duran 8th Inning Guy: Jax (I recognize that some want to swap them, but play along.) 7th Inning Guy No. 1: Sands, based on how he pitched last year. 7th Inning Guy No. 2: Tonkin (no options remaining) Strand Guy: Stewart. Vulture: Alcala (see my comment above). Long Guy/Shuttle Guy: Henriquez. Also out of options, so he has to make the team. Audition Guy: Castellano. He can't be sent down, so he has to start on the roster. Options matter. Topa and Funderburk have options left, so they only make the team if (when) one of these guys heads to the IL or when one of the out of option/Rule 5 guys shows themselves unworthy of staying on the 26-man. Same thing with Headrick, Varland and Canterino if they move to the pen. Because these guys are on the 40-man, they are followed by non-roster invitees who don't have opt outs. Did I miss anyone? *There will be injuries.

There's another distinct role to pull out from The Bottom Three -- The Vulture -- the guy you bring in when you are down one or two in the 5th, 6th or 7th, still in the game but not wanting to use the Closer, TSUG or N2. You want the Vulture to keep it close and hope that your bats can come through. In essence, when you're down a run or two midgame, the Vulture is the guy who determines whether you use the top four or five in the final innings or the Nos. 7 and 8 guy. Often, but not always, the Vulture is a younger guy working his way up the ladder. They usually end up with sparkling records, since it's hard for them to get a loss. In last year's pen, Cole Sands was probably the closest to it. This may be a polarizing statement, but if you go back to 2023, you'll see that Emilio Pagan actually pitched pretty when he was in that role. Guys like Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek served well in that role for a time before moving toward N2 or TSUG roles. With a couple of late implosions, I actually wonder if Alcala might fit well in that role, particularly since the team can be well-served if the Vulture can go more than an inning as Alcala can and particularly if guys like Stewart and Topa show they can be N2 guys.

I don't like the notion of players deferring money. I wonder, however, if we'd read them differently if we heard that Team XYZ took out an operating loan as part of its business plan. I'm not sure I'd lend money to my employer, but that's essentially what Ohtani is doing. And a nitpick from the article -- deferring money isn't going to make a difference in taxes for Shohei under current tax code. The beginning of the top marginal tax bracket in 2025 is at $626,351 for single and $751,601 for married filing jointly. Even if he maxes out the 401(k) (which he'll want to do to get the company match 😀), Shohei is already well into the top bracket. Of course, I don't want to make this a political statement, but tax rates can and do change; it's unlikely tax brackets will be structured the same 19 years from now.

Let me know when the trip is approaching for you.

I added a little more to the post you responded to. I've only met a few TDers, but if you're interested, I'd meet you at one of the Amish buffets. I think this one is the better of the two most prominent in the area: https://essenhaus.com/.

One of the secrets to life is eating more Whoopie Pies. Not sure if you're planning Pennsylvania, Ohio or Indiana Amish country, but if it's the latter and want suggestions, I can help you out. Google maps will send you on a route that avoids Indiana Amish country, but it says it's only 20 minutes longer to come over and go up 131. A key reason to do so is: https://risenroll.com/. You will need to eat a few more salads afterward. If you're into such things, there's also an outstanding Amish/Mennonite interpretive center nearby. And more buffets.

Another thing I count is the number of reasons she's a saint.

Welp. Apparently it's now "Rate Field," but I can guarantee the Sox are still going to stink. In my mind, the best attributes of the Monument to Cement are that it's my shortest drive to a park and that the tickets are cheap. Buy the cheapest available on StubHub -- you will be able to move down easily. The shower is a carryover from Bill Veeck having installed a shower in the outfield stands at Old Comiskey. The drive from Busch to Comiskey is listed at 4:11, but if possible, consider taking Historic Route 66. One of my favorite metaphors for life is the significant stretch that has Amtrak, Route 66 and Interstate 55 going side by side. Staying on 66 will get you lots of kitschy stuff, but the Route 66 Museum in Pontiac is pretty excellent. It's a Monday afternoon game in Chicago, so you may not have the extra time to spend on 66, but you can see the World's Largest Ketchup Bottle with a very brief detour off I-55 at the beginning of your jaunt. I'll add the St. Louis Zoo as a recommendation when in that city. If you're in Chicago for several days, consider getting the CityPass, which will get you into the Shedd Aquarium, Skydeck Chicago [the Willis (Sears) Tower] and three from among the Adler Planetarium, Art Institute, Museum of Science and Industry, Field Museum, an architecture river tour and the 360 Chicago Observation Deck. If you're mobile, a bunch of them are within walking distance of each other. And if you're driving back from Chicago to the Twin Cities, it's only a couple blocks off 90/94 to stop at Smoque BBQ. Brisket excellent. Ribs excellent. Pork excellent. Haven't had the sausage. But the BBQ Gumbo -- amazing. How good is it? I choose it over the aforementioned excellent brisket, ribs or pork. If you're not driving back from Chicago to the Twin Cities, find a way to get there anyway. It's only a couple blocks from the Blue Line. Or take Uber, Lyft, whatever -- just get there.

It bugs me when Mrs. IT complains about me counting stuff. She's done it eight times already this month.* *This is not true. Mrs. IT is a saint!

Good point. I mean, not to make a big deal about it or anything, but taking in these two would get me up to 46 different parks....

Some of the coverage around their last games was quite interesting and reflective. There’s been a number of franchise relocations in other sports, but we’ve largely been spared from that in recent years as baseball fans. It’s hard to believe that the Expos have played in Washington for 20 years already.

I’ve said that I’ve been able to see a game in all MLB stadiums, but I’m trying to decide how to treat the “Sacramento” A’s and the “Tampa (no Bay)” Rays in this unique year and upcoming years.

Yes.

Doubtful they’d use Paddack ahead of Paddack. Starters rarely pitch two days in a row. 😄

I enjoy projecting starters, so I decided to play with this, knowing that the first injury makes this all moot. For reference, a pure five-man rotation would result in 32 starts for each, with a 33rd start for the top two, who I'll call Lopez and Ober. In comparison, I went through the schedule with the following plan: Lopez starts every fifth day, unless that lands on an off day, in which case he opens the next series. He would start 36 games. Ober also starts every fifth day, unless that lands on an off day or a Lopez start, in which case he takes the next available game. He would start 35 games. Ryan also starts every fifth day, unless that lands on an off, Lopez or Ober start, in which case he takes the next available day. He would start 34. That leaves 57 games. If you want to maximize the remaining starts with No. 4 (I used SWR), he would get 32 starts and leave 25 for No. 5 (Paddack). They could easily be adjusted to balance the two a bit more evenly, however. So in summary, maximizing the starts of Lopez, Ober and Ryan would result in taking seven starts from SWR/Paddack and moving them to Lopez (3), Ober (2) and Ryan (2). Summarizing further... Lopez would have his rested first start, following by 29 starts on four days and six on five days. Lopez starts the last game before the All-Star Break and the first game after, so that doesn't affect his rest. Ober would have his rested first start, seven days off around the ASB, seven starts on five days and the remaining 26 starts on four days. Ryan would have his rested first start, a 10 day rest at the ASB, a start on six days, seven starts on five days and the remaining 24 starts on four days. If SWR's starts were maximized at 32, his first will be rested, with a 10 day rest at the ASB, seven starts on six days, six starts on five days and 18 starts on four days. The reason he has a bunch of six day rests is because when there is an off day that would already bump him back to five days, he is often bumped an additional day by starting the series with Lopez, Ober or Ryan. Paddack would be throwing on a very inconsistent pattern. He'd only have six starts on four days, two on five days, seven on six days, two on seven days, four on eight days, two on nine days and one each on 10 and 11 days. What it looks like is 7-6-4-11-4-8-6-7-8-4-5-6-4-8-6-9-6-6-6-4-5-9-4-8-10 days off. I suppose there would be a few times when they could use him out of the bullpen a time or so in the breaks that are maybe eight days or longer, but the team has been reluctant to do that. As noted, it would be possible to balance SWR and Paddack's starts to 29 and 28. If I just alternated SWR and Paddack in the remaining starts, they each have nine starts on four days, but only five on five days. Then they have 10 and 8 starts on six days respectively and a combined three starts on seven days, three on eight, two on nine and one on 10. So, while maximizing starts for Lopez, Ober and Ryan gets them seven additional starts, the tradeoff is that it uses SWR and Paddack on a much more inconsistent manner. When you combine the reality that this approach would rarely give Lopez/Ober/Ryan an extra day with the inconsistent usage it provides for SWR and Paddack, I think the better option is just to stay with the five-man rotation.