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During Minnesota's playoff run last season, Louie Varland showcased his elite skills in a bullpen role. His role for the 2024 season is more apparent, after Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray signed with new organizations. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Louie Varland has been quite the success story for the Twins' scouting and player-development departments. Minnesota selected Varland in the 15th round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Concordia University in St. Paul. He entered college with a mid-80s fastball and a below-average breaking ball. By his junior season, he increased his velocity to the low 90s and developed a solid breaking pitch. It was enough to catch the eye of the Twins, and they signed him for $115,000. Varland continued to make improvements after signing with the Twins, because he couldn’t overpower professional hitters with a low-90s fastball. Coming out of the pandemic, he threw in the mid-90s, and his arm slot was lower. These adjustments helped him to be a more consistent pitcher, which helped his prospect stock to rise. Following the 2021 season, Twins Daily ranked him as the organization’s 15th-best prospect after posting a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 between Low and High A. His 2022 season established him as one of the team’s top pitching prospects after being named Twins Daily’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. In 126 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 1.26 WHIP and a 146-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota was confident enough in him to have him make his big-league debut at Yankee Stadium. He entered last season as Twins Daily’s ninth-ranked prospect and the fourth-highest-ranked pitcher. Varland began the season at St. Paul, but the Twins were forced to turn to him because of injuries in the first half. In 10 starts, he posted a 5.30 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP and a 54-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His biggest issue was allowing 14 home runs in 56 innings. As other starters returned, Varland was sent back to Triple A in late June to work on his secondary pitches, including a cutter. Minnesota recalled Varland when rosters expanded on September 1, to test him in a late-inning bullpen role. His stuff was electric, with his fastball hitting triple digits and his cutter being a weapon in the low 90s. In seven relief appearances (12 innings), he allowed two earned runs with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His playoff experience was limited to two appearances, and he was only asked to get one out per game. Still, overall, it was clear that Varland could be a dominant bullpen option, especially with his improved secondary offerings. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli met with reporters following the 2023 season and had glowing remarks regarding Varland as a reliever. Outside of Jhoan Duran’s emergence, Minnesota’s late-inning bullpen options have been hit-or-miss for multiple seasons, so it’s easy to understand why a manager would get excited about a potential bullpen weapon. If it were up to Baldelli, he’d likely have Varland in the bullpen for next season and worry about other options to fill spots in the starting rotation. Minnesota’s starting rotation is losing two members, with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda signing free-agent deals outside the organization. Currently, the starting staff would include Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. Varland lines up to fill the fifth spot in the rotation, but it seems likely that the front office will want to add more depth. If the Twins trade for a playoff-caliber starter, Varland would be pushed to Triple A, which the team did with Ober in 2023. It seems clear that no matter what the team does this winter, Varland will be needed in a starting role. Varland has been considered a hard worker throughout his collegiate and professional careers, and the new-and-improved version of him hasn’t been given a starting opportunity. Last season, his breaking and offspeed pitches had negative run values, while his fastball ranked in the 74th percentile. During the 2022 season, opponents posted a .545 SLG against his cutter, but he lowered that by 145 points last season. Another offseason of emphasis and refinement could sharpen that offering into a true difference-maker. Like many pitchers, Varland saw an increase in his velocity in his switch from starter to reliever. He lacks an actual swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed hitters, who hit .275/.317/.526 (.843) against him in 2023. One possible change would be using his cutter as a fastball and then trying to use his sinker more regularly. However, he has lacked a feel for that pitch because he only started throwing that pitch last season. Varland has shown the ability to make substantial improvements from one year to the next, and his sinker should be one focus area. From the front office’s perspective, it’s much easier for Varland to prepare for the season as a starting pitcher and shift him to the bullpen than to do things the other way around. The team assured him last season that the long-term plan is to keep him in the starting rotation. He’s outperformed expectations at every level, and the Twins hope he can take the next step in 2023 and establish himself as one of the team’s long-term rotation options. Should the Twins keep Varland in the rotation? Is it better to move him to the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

As first reported by Jon Heyman, then confirmed by Ken Rosenthal, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up is a Twin no more. There's an almost golden lining to the cloud, though. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports (Thankfully, Ken Rosenthal is here to cool our senses and establish order, because how comfortable were we with Heyman as the tip of the spear?) Following a tremendous season that saw him finish as the runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young, Gray spoke glowingly about Minnesota, emphasizing in a rare public plea that money isn’t the only factor in his decision-making process. Comfort mattered, too, and Minnesota offers that in a unique way. The Twins spun a different tale. Much of their vernacular focused on what Gray had done, and their gratitude for his veteran savvy and excellent pitching. In the moment, this seemed like pretty typical posturing. Recent reporting regarding Minnesota’s future financials revealed the team was dead serious in their callousness. Today, Gray’s exit will become final. His time with the Twins will go down as the best amongst the four teams for whom he’s pitched. Gray spread a 2.90 ERA over 303 ⅔ frames in two seasons, easily making him one of the best traded-for starters this side of Dean Chance. Among all pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since the beginning of 2022, only Blake Snell and Justin Verlander beat Gray in ERA. He also immortalized himself in recent Twins playoff history, winning the series-clinching game against Toronto with an unforgettable pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to end his day. Because the team slapped Gray with the Qualifying Offer, the terms of his new deal will hand Minnesota a compensatory pick right after the first round in 2024. That return will soothe the loss of Chase Petty, who was a late first-round pick himself. It isn’t a perfect one-for-one—especially as Petty has worked his way to Double A hiccup-free in the Reds system—but dropping back a few spots in the draft for almost two full years of elite pitching remains an excellent deal. The Twins deserve a lot of credit for their foresight. They’ll need that wisdom again as Gray's exit—in combination with Kenta Maeda signing with Detroit—leaves a mangled 2024 rotation to deal with. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are well-entrenched incumbents, but Chris Paddack (who hasn’t come close to his rookie-year career high of 140 ⅔ innings in four years) and Louie Varland (who pitched much better out of the bullpen in 2023) leave the back end feeling a bit shaky and untrustworthy. Sure, that describes most team’s fourth and fifth starter situations, but Minnesota would probably like to improve their depth, lest an untimely injury forces David Festa into a premature support role. Broadly speaking, the team has two options: they could acquire a top-tier starter like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert, thickening their bunch at the top of the rotation at the cost of serious prospect capital. The upside in wielding another great starter is obvious, but such a deal would also protect them from the chaos and uncertainty involved in waiting until the trade deadline to make a move, where teams can hike up prices, and the only mercy is for those with stable elbows. Minnesota tried this route once with Tyler Mahle, which may push them to act now. They could also go the innings-eater route. Acquiring a Lucas Giolito or Mike Clevinger isn’t sexy, but it would at least give them extra protection if the ligament gods frown upon the team on any given day next year. This plan places pressure on Ryan shedding his gopher-ball habit—something no statistician or qualified religious figure has been able to correctly speak to the potential of. In the end, the goal should be to knock Varland into the same role Ober occupied in 2023. Either way, the team has plenty of work ahead. That work won’t reach the surface until late December or January—this is Derek Falvey we’re talking about here—but it’ll help define the move-making possible under the self-imposed economic restraints already affecting their structure. We shall see what path they take. View full article

In recent years, the Twins have not been afraid to make trades to bring in pitchers and hitters. The ideal situation is trading from an organization's position of strength to acquire players from positions of need. To do so, a team must be honest in evaluating their positions of strength and their positions of need. Is "Pitching" currently a strength in the organization? Do they need to acquire starters or relievers this offseason? Do they have enough ready or nearly-ready talent in the upper-levels of the minor leagues? We have read about and written about and talked about a “Pitching Pipeline” for the Minnesota Twins. It was one of the reasons that many were so excited about the Twins bringing in Derek Falvey as President of Baseball Operations seven years ago. Starting Pitchers 2023 Starting Staff: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland Free Agents: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda Projected 2024 Starting Staff: RHP Pablo Lopez, RHP Chris Paddack, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Bailey Ober, RHP Louie Varland. Ended 2023 in St. Paul: RHP Randy Dobnak, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP David Festa, LHP Brent Headrick. Ended 2023 in AA Wichita: RHP Marco Raya, RHP Travis Adams, RHP Pierson Ohl, LHP Jaylen Nowlin, LHP Jordan Carr. The six starting pitchers mentioned above made 149 of the team’s 162 starts (92.0%). Add Dallas Keuchel’s six starts and Tyler Mahle’s five starts, and you cover 160 starts. That is not normal, and the Twins can’t make any sort of assumption that it will happen again. Chris Paddack returned late in the season in the bullpen and showed that he is strong. The Twins are still likely to add a pitcher or two in free agency or via trade, but which minor leaguers have a chance to contribute in 2024? Also, who are the exciting prospects to follow through the pitching pipeline? We saw some of the candidates make their debuts in 2022 and 2023. Josh Winder and Cole Sands moved to the bullpen full-time in 2023. In addition, former top starting pitcher prospect Jordan Balazovic debuted in the bullpen. He had one strong month with the Twins and was getting opportunities in key spots before struggling late and being optioned. Brent Headrick came up a few times and worked in relief, both long and short. However, when he was in St. Paul, he was used as a starter. Louie Varland made 10 starts for the Twins, but in September, he was used out of the bullpen and showed dominance. However, he should remain a starter, at least for the foreseeable future. And, finally healthy, Randy Dobnak should be considered for a spot just like others who reach St. Paul. View full article

In recent years, the Twins have not been afraid to make trades to bring in pitchers and hitters. The ideal situation is trading from an organization's position of strength to acquire players from positions of need. To do so, a team must be honest in evaluating their positions of strength and their positions of need. Is "Pitching" currently a strength in the organization? Do they need to acquire starters or relievers this offseason? Do they have enough ready or nearly-ready talent in the upper-levels of the minor leagues? We have read about and written about and talked about a “Pitching Pipeline” for the Minnesota Twins. It was one of the reasons that many were so excited about the Twins bringing in Derek Falvey as President of Baseball Operations seven years ago. Starting Pitchers 2023 Starting Staff: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland Free Agents: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda Projected 2024 Starting Staff: RHP Pablo Lopez, RHP Chris Paddack, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Bailey Ober, RHP Louie Varland. Ended 2023 in St. Paul: RHP Randy Dobnak, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP David Festa, LHP Brent Headrick. Ended 2023 in AA Wichita: RHP Marco Raya, RHP Travis Adams, RHP Pierson Ohl, LHP Jaylen Nowlin, LHP Jordan Carr. The six starting pitchers mentioned above made 149 of the team’s 162 starts (92.0%). Add Dallas Keuchel’s six starts and Tyler Mahle’s five starts, and you cover 160 starts. That is not normal, and the Twins can’t make any sort of assumption that it will happen again. Chris Paddack returned late in the season in the bullpen and showed that he is strong. The Twins are still likely to add a pitcher or two in free agency or via trade, but which minor leaguers have a chance to contribute in 2024? Also, who are the exciting prospects to follow through the pitching pipeline? We saw some of the candidates make their debuts in 2022 and 2023. Josh Winder and Cole Sands moved to the bullpen full-time in 2023. In addition, former top starting pitcher prospect Jordan Balazovic debuted in the bullpen. He had one strong month with the Twins and was getting opportunities in key spots before struggling late and being optioned. Brent Headrick came up a few times and worked in relief, both long and short. However, when he was in St. Paul, he was used as a starter. Louie Varland made 10 starts for the Twins, but in September, he was used out of the bullpen and showed dominance. However, he should remain a starter, at least for the foreseeable future. And, finally healthy, Randy Dobnak should be considered for a spot just like others who reach St. Paul. View full article

The Twins need another starter to solidify themselves with the best chance to capture the American League Central Division title again in 2024. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray, this free agent class is meek in depth for top to middle-rotation guys. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today Sports There is one name that stands out among free agent starters available that not only fits into the mold as a good option for the Twins budget but also his stuff: Michael Wacha. Wacha’s situation is more tricky than others this off-season. The Padres have a two-year, $32 million team option built into his one-year deal from last off-season, but Wacha also has a $6.5 million player option he can exercise with the Padres for 2024. However, the Padres might be more willing to cut costs where they can as news broke last week from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal, and Dennis Lin reported the Padres took out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September. They could be looking to cut costs wherever they can, and Wacha’s contract would be an easy decision. While the team option complicates the clearness of his availability in free agency, Wacha was easily the second-best starter for the Padres this season behind Snell. He made 24 starts, had a 3.22 ERA in 134.1 innings pitched, a 1.16 WHIP, a .224 opponents batting average, 124 strikeouts, and 14 wins. For the more analytical heads, Wacha also found himself in the 94th percentile in pitching run value and the 98th percentile for off-speed pitches run value this year per Baseball Savant. Wacha is entering his age-32 season in 2024, making him one of the younger, better-available middle-rotation starters in this free-agency class. Given his age and performance in 2023, there’s a good possibility Wacha won’t exercise his player option if the Padres decline his team option. This winter could be his last opportunity to get a long-term, massive payday in his career and test the free agency waters for it. Per Baseball Reference, Wacha has never earned more money in a single season than he did this year at $7.5 million. After his 2023 performance, he is certainly closer in value to the $16 million a season that can be exercised in his team option with the Swinging Friars. Fortunately for the Twins, if Wacha enters this free agency market, offering him a couple extra million a season in the $18-$20 million range would not be detrimental to the spending budget, with it shrinking due to TV revenue losses. The price range is what Gray will receive in his qualifying offer. Still, he’s all but guaranteed to decline, as everyone and their mother knows he will receive a greater annual salary in almost every free agency offer. The significant upside with Wacha compared to Maeda is his younger age. Maeda will be 36 in 2024 and while he stabilized himself in the rotation and bullpen to end the season, the decline of age and recovery from Tommy John showed in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Astros. Wacha would undoubtedly be a safer gamble to pursue on that merit alone. Then there’s the workload that Wacha would be undertaking compared to other starters the Twins currently have. In theory, the Twins could make due with the five starters they have in the organization for Opening Day: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland. In an ideal world, this would be perfect, but as the game shows us again and again, depth is a necessity for a winning team. Wacha would be great in providing that depth if the Twins opt to have Varland in the bullpen or St. Paul or if any of the listed starters suffer injury setbacks. 2023 was the first time Wacha pitched over 130 innings in a season since 2017, when he threw 165.2 innings with the Cardinals and posted a 4.13 ERA. It’s unclear if Wacha will have a workload that heavy again, but the 134.1 innings this season puts him between Maeda’s 104.1 innings and Ober’s 144.1 innings in 2023. The amount of workload that Wacha can currently take on is a good balance to avoid rushing Varland back into the rotation, or call up the likes of David Festa from St. Paul too early in 2024. It will also be good to have him either in front of or behind Paddack in the rotation in case he still needs to rebuild his innings limits workload as he returns to the Twins rotation in 2024. If Wacha does end up being available, his price tag, workload capabilities on the mound, and 2023 performance make him the perfect candidate for the Twins to pursue if they are unable to resign Gray. In the unlikely case that the Padres exercise Wacha’s option, $32 million over 2-years is still worth pursuing via trade. Given the Twins' recent success in their trade history with the Friars, it would be an offer worth pursuing. View full article

The Minnesota Twins knew they were going to the postseason for a matter of weeks before they had clinched the division. Working to get their roster in order for a run, they needed to work on the bullpen. Louie Varland went to St. Paul with that goal in mind, and then he proved it was an intelligent ask. What if he was too good, though? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Louie Varland even making the big leagues is a feat in and of itself - the former Concordia-St. Paul Golden Bears pitcher was a 15th-round pick in 2019. That’s relatively rarefied air to make something out of yourself at the highest level, but if you’ve followed along, his desire to be great isn’t normal either. Last season, Varland appeared in the big leagues to pitch a game for the Twins against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. At just 24 years old and barely removed from pitching for a Division II college, he was in The Show. Posting a 3.81 ERA across five starts last season, Varland looked the part of a major league pitcher. This season, Minnesota acquired depth that would allow them to trend toward a divisional crown. They traded for Pablo Lopez to front the rotation, pushing Bailey Ober out and into Triple-A. This maneuvering also meant that Varland had slid one more rung down the depth chart. And having one of the best pitching rotations in franchise history resulted in Varland starting just ten games with the Twins in his second major league season. Wanting to bolster the bullpen for a postseason run, Varland was told to focus on letting it fly at Triple-A. He would work his way back alongside veteran starter Chris Paddack, and the bullpen was the ticket for each of them. Without needing to focus on energy conservation, Varland could air out his two-pitch mix in short burst stints (he reached 100.1 mph in his first relief appearance with the Saints in September). Debuting as a reliever with the Twins on September 6, he worked 12 innings across seven outings. He allowed only six hits and a pair of runs (both on solo homers) and posted a ridiculous 17/1 K/BB. Not only had he emerged as a bullpen arm for Rocco Baldelli, but he looked the part of an absolute weapon. As a starter, Varland had shown an ability to get outs while doing so as a fourth or fifth option in the rotation. When coming out of the bullpen, he had dialed the fastball up to triple-digits while routinely sitting around 98 mph (his fastball velocity averaged 94.6 mph in July while bumping to 97.5 mph in September). The velocity uptick was notable, but he also brandished an improved cutter, a pitch that could get in on the hands of the opposition. Before Varland agreed on the bullpen plan, he talked with Minnesota’s leadership, expressing a desire to remain a starter. "I believe the best version of myself is a starter," Varland told reporters in September. "Starters also get paid. I want to stay a starters as long as I can." Pitching out of the rotation is something the St. Paul native has always done, and it’s the same role he has worked to elevate himself to in the big leagues. Money and glory come while working every fifth day, and his preparation has been geared towards that for years. But his outstanding performance in relief late last year might be too good to ignore - and too tempting for the Twins to pass up. Speaking on the matter during a recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman noted just how special Baldelli believes Varland can be in relief. Convincing Varland of the same has to be part of the process for Baldelli and the Twins. Working in the bullpen after initially being a starter isn’t something new. Jhoan Duran was a starting prospect before dialing it up to 103 mph and emerging as the Twins closer. Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and plenty of other names have moved to the bullpen after experiencing life in the rotation. The bullpen is no longer banishment for less talented arms, it is a place where special talent can thrive. Over the offseason, Varland will continue operating with a plan that has him returning as a starter. He’ll eventually have conversations with multiple people involved for Minnesota, and his future role may not be decided for some time. We are likely a ways from seeing how this ultimately plays out, but adding another lockdown leverage arm to a stable with Duran and Griffin Jax seems like a come-up for the Twins. The Twins have witnessed what Varland can provide in relief, though, and that might be too hard to ignore. View full article

The Minnesota Twins constructed a 2023 team built around significant depth. After having to cycle through a handful of arms to complete the season, they became one of the best rotations in baseball. Repeating means they’ll need to add, but how? Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Going into the season, the front office made a difficult decision to flip fan-favorite batting champion Luis Arraez in exchange for Pablo Lopez. That worked out wonderfully for both teams, and the Twins got an Ace. They backfilled Arraez’s spot with Edouard Julien and now have much more praise for the move. Lopez will be back and start on Opening Day for Minnesota. Behind him, Sonny Gray is not expected to be back. Sure, he is a free agent and could be signed to a new deal by Minnesota, but he will have no shortage of suitors, and the front office shouldn’t be paying him for the Cy Young performance he put up this season. Allocating dollars to Gray would need to include a belief in his performance over the next two or three years, and Derek Falvey could undoubtedly opt to spend those dollars elsewhere. Therein lies the rub. This free-agent pitching class isn’t exactly ideal. Shohei Ohtani wasn’t ever going to be likely for the Twins, but he isn’t a pitcher next season, and the prognosis for the future remains uncertain. That leaves the top names being Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. Again, there will be no shortage of suitors for their services this year, and Snell coming off a Cy Young award isn’t going to drive his price down at all. Looking at the Twins rotation, though, it might not be about spending on the open market at all. The Twins know they need to increase pitching depth and doing something like pushing Bailey Ober to Triple-A makes sense. This year, that would probably come in the form of Louie Varland, but doing so with a starter that slots in just above him can’t happen. Lopez will be the ace, and then some combination of Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Ober will work behind him. Adding a Gray-level starter or someone better than Kenta Maeda needs to be the plan, and they can find that match by contacting the 29 other teams. When looking to restock the Twins rotation, Derek Falvey hasn’t spent significantly on a starting pitcher. Lopez’s dollars came through an extension, and Gray had already brought team control with him. That means working a trade is already a path he has shown plenty of ability to do and has created depth within the rotation. The front office may consider a few depth arms worth packaging toward a more prominent player. Brent Headrick, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Cory Lewis are all varying degrees of players who may fall into this category. There is also the glut of infield options that the Twins have at their disposal. Brooks Lee is likely off the table, but Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Luke Keaschall, and Tanner Schobel are prospects for which playing time may eventually need to be found. Hitting on another arm through trade is something that should also bring a level of comfort due to the recent track record. Sure, the Twins front office has their fair share of misses, but the last two frontline starters that have been acquired represent substantial wins. It’s not every trade that you’ll find a Joe Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz lopsided outcome, but being able to effectively scout yourself and the competition when making big swings is a skill. No matter how the Twins go about player acquisition this offseason, they will have multiple options. Just because the crop on the open market may be expensive or less-than-ideal doesn’t mean the Twins have to participate. Falvey has done a great job reminding us that his work construction isn’t done until Opening Day arrives. View full article

Louie Varland showed flashes of being a potential front of the rotation starter for the Minnesota Twins, including in a gem at Houston earlier this season. Varland moved to the bullpen and thrived, pairing a 98-100 mph fastball with a devastating cutter. What will the Twins do with Varland in 2024? Will he start or relieve? View full video

On our pitching staff we have a rock solid starting 5 or even 6 if you count Mahle. (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Meada) In the pen we have Duran, Jax, Pagan, and Thielbar and then we have the other guys. Who are the other guys? They are the depth starters and relievers used to round out the staff. The other guys include: Varland, Winder, Keuchel, Headrick, Balazovic, Sands, Brock, Deleon, Ortega and Funderburk. These guys combined to make 17 starts and pitch 283.33 innings giving up 135 Earned Runs for a 4.29 ERA with 113 BB and 281 Ks. They combined to go 16 wins and 7 loses and 3 saves. We wouldn't have been able to win the division without their contributions. Much like our bench who managed to hit league around league average and provide value on offense and some on defense. These pitchers held their own in the rotation and bullpen. Some of them will be counted on for bigger roles as early as next season with the hopes that Varland and Funderburk can step up and be major parts of the staff. And Brock made it to that point already in his limited time with the Twins (27 2/3 innings pitched). Will anyone else step-up next season? Who else will step up and be a bigger part of the pen? who will remain as one of the other guys. Someone who helps glue the staff together and contributes in places where needed. And who will join this group of unheralded pitchers to step in where needed if only for a start or a few relief appearances?

Sonny Gray was among the American League’s most valuable pitchers during the 2023 season. Here’s how the Twins can use internal options to replace his value on the 2024 roster. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray walked off the mound in Game 3 of the ALDS with his head down. The Twins had returned to Target Field with a chance to take the series lead. Instead, Gray allowed more home runs than any other game this season. It was a disappointing end to what was likely his last appearance for the Twins. Gray turns 34 next month, and he’s reaching free agency for the first time. The Twins will make him a qualifying offer that amounts to a one-year deal of around $20 million. He will decline the offer, and the Twins can receive draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. Gray told reporters that money isn’t the only factor in his search, but he wants to be fairly compensated. It seems unlikely for the Twins’ front office to give Gray a multi-year deal, so the focus turns to replacing him. The Twins aren’t magically going to find a starting pitcher who will produce a five WAR season. Instead, the team will need to piece together value from multiple players. Chris Paddack Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery in the season’s final weeks and showed some tremendous stuff in a bullpen role. Some pitchers can struggle with their command after arm surgery, but Paddack filled up the strike zone and utilized all his pitches, including an increased use of his changeup. He will likely have an innings limit in his first full season back from surgery, but the Twins managed Kenta Maeda well this season. Paddack won’t be in the running for the Cy Young like Gray was this season, but he should fit nicely into the middle of the rotation and add value the Twins didn’t get in 2023. Potential Value: +2.0 WAR Joe Ryan Ryan’s sophomore season was a tale of two halves. Before the All-Star Break, Ryan posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 107 innings. His second half was marred by a groin injury that he tried to pitch through with some disastrous results. In 11 starts (54 2/3 innings), he posted a 6.09 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP while surrendering 16 home runs, the same amount he allowed in the first half in half as many innings. According to rWAR, Ryan provided less value to the Twins than Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagan, and Bailey Ober. The Twins can get more value from Ryan if he can spread his first-half totals over the entire season. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR Bailey Ober Ober finished third on the team among pitchers in rWAR behind Gray and Lopez, but he left other value on the table. He started the season in St. Paul, making four starts before joining the Twins rotation. At the end of August, the Twins sent him back to Triple-A to give him time off, and he made one additional start at that level. There is no question that he would have provided more value to the Twins if those five starts came at the big-league level. Next season, there should be fewer concerns about Ober’s workload after he threw over 170 innings for the first time in his career. He deserves to be in the Twins rotation coming out of spring training, and he might have a chip on his shoulder after the way he was used this season. Potential Value: +0.5 WAR Other Options The Twins will also have other internal options to complete the back end of the rotation. Louie Varland was fantastic in his transition to the bullpen at the end of the season. Minnesota might be tempted to leave him in that role, but that likely won’t happen to start the year. He should get the chance to start and earn the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training. Despite struggling through different parts of the 2023 season, Simeon Woods Richardson is another intriguing option. He posted a 4.91 ERA at Triple-A with a 1.50 WHIP in 113 2/3 innings. Woods Richardson was nearly five years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and St. Paul has proven to be a hitter’s park. He won’t begin the year in the rotation, but he should factor into the equation later in the year. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR There is also a potential for the Twins to go out and add another starting pitcher through free agency or a trade. Many were surprised by the Twins adding Lopez last winter when the rotation seemed to have five viable options. Minnesota’s front office values depth, and the team’s younger pitchers might need more time at Triple-A. How do you think the Twins will replace Gray? Do they have enough value with their internal options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

After a one-week break, draft tandem JD Cameron and Jeremy Nygaard are back to talk all things baseball. Conversation includes the playoffs, rookie contributors, the 2024 draft and, of course, answering some listener questions. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo 0:00 - Introduction and how we feel about the Twins and Brewers seasons coming to an end. The trio of teams that are covered are now all done playing... but the offseason! 5:00 - The draft order is not set yet, but it's starting to clear up. What does this mean for the Cubs, Brewers and Twins and how could the draft order - at least in the first round - change. 13:30 Rintaro Sasaki leaving Japan and going to an American university. What does this mean, not only for Sasaki, but the future of Japanese preps? 19:24 We spent some time on rookies. We have a range of disappointing outcomes from the Cubs capitulation and missing the playoffs, to the Brewers wildcard exit, to the Twins losing in the Divisional Round. 20:41 Focused on Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks, with a dishonorable mention for the team's handling of Pete Crow-Armstrong. 26:02 The talk centered around Brice Turang and Sal Frelick, both what they provided and what their futures could be. 33:14 The Twins boasted some stud rookies, led by Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. While they both fit into the team's long-term plans, where do they fit defensively? 45:49 Answered listener questions wondering about which prospects we're both excited to see as well as a question about the Twins rotation in 2024 and potential free agent targets. You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, leaving us a positive review and five star rating at iTunes or Spotify, retweeting show related content on Twitter, and subscribing to the Twins Daily YouTube page. You can follow us @DTS_POD1, @J_D_Cameron, @Jeremynygaard, and @TheodoreTollef1 on Twitter. Send us your prospect and draft related questions for our next episode. Find Destination: The Show on all major podcast platforms including Spotify, iTunes, iHeartRadio and Amazon Music. The show is available on Libsyn, our podcasting platform, in addition to YouTube. View full article

The Twins found multiple everyday contributors in arguably the best rookie class since 1982. Although various rookies caught our attention, one stood out among the rest. Congratulations to Twins Daily 2023 Rookie of the Year Award recipient Royce Lewis. 2023 was a challenging year to select just one Twins Daily Rookie of the Year Award recipient, but before we announce the winner, let's give the runner-ups their flowers. Many years, the Twins (and most other organizations) may not have five rookies on the roster all season. Even if they do, the odds of all of them finding success is not high. Three rookies especially are often credited with providing a spark and extended quality play. Two other pitchers have come up as rookies and contributed in whatever role they have been given. Fifth Place: LHP Kody Funderburk In fifth place is Twins relief pitcher Kody Funderburk. Beginning the season with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge, Funderburk skyrocketed through the upper levels of the Twins organization and made his Twins debut on September 4 against the Cleveland Guardians. Funderburk sprung onto the scene and quickly became a dependable reliever for the Twins in the middle of a division title pennant race. Congratulations to Funderburk on a successful first month in the big leagues. He was also Twins Daily's choice for Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year. Fourth Place: RHP Louie Varland In fourth place is rookie pitcher and Minnesota native Louie Varland. Beginning the season as a rotation fill-in for the injured Tyler Mahle, Varland quickly became one of the Twins' best and most reliable young starting pitchers alongside Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. Unfortunately, Varland developed a problem giving up too many home runs and was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul in late June. Varland provided quality starts at the beginning of the season before developing into a lights-out reliever in September. Varland will be a key fixture for the Twins bullpen in their upcoming Wild Card series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Congratulations on a promising 2023 season, Louie. Third Place: OF Matt Wallner Twins corner outfielder and fellow Minnesota native Matt Wallner comes in third place. After getting recalled from Triple-A St. Paul with the Twins for the third time this season in mid-July, Wallner became an everyday corner outfielder who could mix his immense power with a strong eye at the plate, leading to a high on-base percentage. Wallner had an encouraging 2023 season and looks to be in the Twins' corner outfield plans for the foreseeable future. Second Place: 2B/DH Edouard Julien In second place is the pride of Québec City, Edouard Julien. Admittedly, I voted for Julien to win Twins Daily Rookie of the Year, but Twins Daily participates in a democracy, so the majority wins. Although the player I voted to win didn't, this is nonetheless a fair and healthy process. Thank you, John, Seth, Nick, Brock, and Parker. Okay, sorry, back to baseball. Julien had an incredible inaugural season and was arguably the Twins' best hitter for much of the season. Julien was one of the rookies that signified the Twins' turn-around in offensive production post-All-Star break and deserves as much credit as anyone for essentially saving the Twins' season. Congratulations to Julien on an incredible rookie season, and although he didn't win the Twins Daily Rookie of the Year Award, he came incredibly close. It was as close a vote as we have had in the decade of handing out these awards. First Place: 3B Royce Lewis Varland, Wallner, and Julien put together impressive rookie seasons, but the Twins Daily Rookie of the Year Award winner is Royce Lewis. In his first extended run as a Major League Baseball player, Lewis has met every expectation of being the first overall pick in the 2017 Major League Baseball draft. Let's see how Lewis got there. Lewis's Return From His Twice Torn ACL Lewis's start of the 2023 season began on May 29, when Lewis returned to the Twins lineup against the Astros in Houston. Returning exactly a year after tearing his ACL for the second time in as many seasons, Lewis instantly lit a spark under the Twins, hitting a three-run home run in just his second at-bat back from the 60-day IL. Lewis followed the home run with a game-tying RBI single in the ninth inning. Lewis's heroics propelled the Twins to a 7-5 win and signified the beginning of great things to come. Lewis followed his May return by hitting .322/.351/.444 (.795) with 29 hits, two doubles, three home runs, and a 122 wRC+ over 94 plate appearances from May 30 through through July 1. Unfortunately, Lewis was placed on the 10-day IL on July 1 with a grade-2 oblique strain and stayed there for 36 days before returning on August 15. Lewis's Second Return and the Dawning of "Mr. Grand Slam" Returning from an extended absence on August 15, Lewis immediately jumped back into the Twins lineup as their everyday third baseman, and the grand slam barrage began. Grand Slam #1: Arrival On August 27, the Twins were trailing the Texas Rangers 5-0 in the bottom of the sixth inning when Lewis stepped up to face reliever Chris Stratton with the bases loaded and one out. After falling behind 0-1, Lewis saw a hanging breaking ball deep to straight away center field, trimming the Twins deficit to 5-4. Lewis's home run was the spark for a Twins comeback, and the Twins beat the Rangers 7-6 in 13 innings. Grand Slam #2: Sacrifice Fly? NOPE The next day, Lewis stepped up to the plate in the 2nd inning with the bases loaded against the Guardians. Rookie pitcher was Xzavion Curry on the mound, and the Twins were down 4-2. Lewis again fell behind 0-1, and just like the day before, he drove a breaking ball over the wall in left center field, propelling the Twins to a 6-4 lead. Lewis's grand slam ignited a Twins comeback, and they were able to defeat the Guardians 10-to-6 and increase their division lead to seven games. Grand Slam #3: The Day Twins Territory Stood Still Lewis's third grand slam came on September 4. If you don't recall, one of the most stressful days in recent Twins history occurred just four days earlier, The Guardians, who were just two games back of the Twins, claimed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo López off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. The first time the Twins could do something about it came the next Monday when they began a three-game series in Cleveland. Giolito made his Guardians debut in Game 1 of the series. The Twins began the scoring with a Jorge Polanco leadoff home run in the top of the first inning. With two outs in the second frame, Polanco walked with the bases loaded to give them a 2-0 lead. That brought Lewis to the plate. On a 2-0 count, Lewis got a middle-middle fastball and crushed it deep into the left field bleachers to give the Twins a 6-0 lead. The Twins went on to win 20-6. CATHARSIS! Grand Slam #4: The Fourth Kind Last but not least, Lewis's final grand slam of the 2023 season came on September 15 against another divisional foe, the Chicago White Sox. On a 3-1 fastball from Jesse Scholtens, Lewis destroyed his fourth grand slam. It gave the Twins an early 4-0 lead and propelled the team to a 10-2 win in Chicago. After hitting his fourth grand slam of the 2023 season and fifth of his career, Lewis, as Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic noted, found himself tied for the eighth-most grand slams in Minnesota Twins history. Although his 2023 regular season came to an unfortunate end on September 19 when he strained his hamstring during an at-bat against the Cincinnati Reds, Lewis's grand slam propensity is an incredibly improbable and impressive feat. 2023 was the first season that Lewis, a traditional shortstop, began playing third base on an every-game basis in his professional career. Although he initially struggled some, he quickly began refining his craft. He became a respectable defensive third baseman. Lewis ended the 2023 season hitting .309/.372/.548 (.920) with seven doubles, 15 home runs, 8.4% BB%, 23% K%, .240 ISO, and 155 wRC+ over 239 plate appearances. Lewis had an incredible 2023 season, even if his time was still limited. Watching him in his first extended run in the big leagues was enjoyable. Congratulations to Royce Lewis for winning the Twins Daily 2023 Rookie of the Year award. How would you have voted for the Twins Top Rookie? Lewis or Julien, and how close should Wallner be to the top of the list? Comment below. Final Voting Points Tally Royce Lewis: 64 Edouard Julien: 62 Matt Wallner: 36 Louie Varland: 16 Kody Funderburk: 1 View full article

The Twins starting rotation and bullpen are coming together at the opportune time. Here’s how the team will ideally use each pitcher in the team’s first two playoff games. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Major League Baseball’s regular season is a grueling 162-game schedule that allows for ebbs and flows from one portion of the season to the next. The postseason is an entirely different scenario where one moment can change the entire outcome of a series. There is little room for mistakes in the heightened playoff atmosphere, which makes it tough to predict what will happen on baseball’s biggest stage. However, here’s the roadmap for the Twins to follow if everything goes perfectly in the Wild Card Series. Wild Card Series: Game 1 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023 Innings 1-5: Pablo Lopez has pitched into the sixth inning or longer in 26 of his 31 starts. However, the playoffs are a different animal, and the Twins won’t want him facing a line-up for the third time. Lopez has actually fared better against batters when facing them for a third time, with an OPS over 100 points lower than the first or second time he sees a batter in a game. Even with his performance, it’s likely that Lopez will be asked to pitch through the fifth frame and then turn things over to the bullpen. Innings 6-7: In the middle innings, the Twins will have a few options, but Louie Varland might be the best choice. His stuff has been electric in transitioning to the bullpen while hitting triple-digits with his fastball and mixing in a devastating cutter. Contact against him has been weak, and he has been missing a lot of bats. He also has the potential to pitch more than one inning if the Twins need him for that role. Innings 8-9: The Twins will have a couple of options depending on the handedness of the line-up they are facing. I predict the opposition has some lefties due up in the eighth, and the Twins will turn to Caleb Thielbar. During the 2023 season, he has limited left-handed batters to a .348 OPS with 13 strikeouts in 46 at-bats. In this scenario, Jhoan Duran is ready if needed for the end of the eighth inning, but the team hopes he can enter with a clean frame in the ninth. Duran closes it out for the Twins’ first playoff win since 2004. Wild Card Series: Game 2 Wednesday, October 4th, 2023 Innings 1-5: The Twins will ask their starter to pitch five innings for the second consecutive day, and Sonny Gray is up to the task. His second-half performance should place him in the top three for the AL Cy Young. Like Lopez in Game 1, the Twins will happily get Gray through the first five frames before the bullpen makes an appearance. Gray has posted a .209/.294/.342 (.636) slashline when facing batters for the third time in a game this season. No team wants to mess around with a winner-take-all Game 3, so Gray must put up zeros during the first two times through the opposition’s line-up. Innings 6-7: Minnesota can turn to multiple arms in the middle innings to build a bridge to the high-leverage options. Chris Paddack and Griffin Jax will each be asked to get three outs. Paddack is 16 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and his pitch mix has looked great in his rehab appearances. Jax’s season has been a roller coaster ride, but the team must trust him to make an October run. Innings 8-9: With six outs remaining, the Twins might want Duran to pitch two frames. However, that doesn’t seem likely if he pitched the previous day, so the team will save him for the ninth. Batters have posted a .747 OPS against Duran when he pitches with zero days of rest, which is over 100 points higher than his OPS for the season. Brock Stewart will get the ball in the eighth after being one of the team’s best relievers this season. The Twins will put him in some tough spots, hoping the dominant reliever has enough left in his right arm. Duran makes his famous walk-in entrance, and the Twins shut the door on their first playoff series win since 2002. What pitching plan will the Twins follow in the Wild Card Series? Do you agree with the plan described above? How would you map out a plan for Game 3? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article