IndianaTwin

No, it's about $15M more than "we originally thought Derek Falvey had to play with," at least if we were accepting the narrative that "there won't be a further cut" means "we're going to spend what we did last year, so we have to cut $10M from the projection -- adios Vazquez, Paddack or Castro." Some of us weren't accepting that narrative, but unfortunately, that's virtually the only message we heard on TD all winter. I said in another post that Falvey tends to operate below the radar, so if there's speculation on Cease, it seems unlikely to happen. I also see that this one only links him to the Cubs and Mets: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/the-opener-moniak-yates-cease.html And now that the Padres signed a catcher, their interest in Vazquez goes away. I don't have a good handle on what's left, but I see a Solano/Taylor/Santana-type signing, a veteran presence who can play 1B or play CF. Less likely is a lefty reliever. (Oh, but it's a Friday evening -- please let me wake up to the out of the blue surprise that the Polar Bear is a Twin, kinda like happened a couple years ago on a Saturday morning with Correa.)

By leaving their wallet at home, at least they didn't pay for a bad Margot. I mean, Merlot.

Not according to dictionary.com, but it appears that one can make at least 100 words by unscrambling the letters: https://unscramblex.com/anagram/neasky

It would give plenty of fodder for TD, with the prompting of additional "We have too many LH hitting outfielders" articles and comments.

Is the goal to reduce San Diego’s budget? Because that’s adding $11.5M to the Twins.

If by "close to payroll neutral," you mean "take on at least $10M," sure.

I think it's doubtful the Twins will work out something with the Padres on Cease. Not because they can't, but because Falvey has always operated below the radar. Perhaps there have been some, but I don't remember any of his biggest moves having been in the rumor mill. If it's rumored, it's doubtful. And I'm okay with that approach.

My son got me a "Relax, I have a spreadsheet for that" refrigerator magnet, so yeah -- thanks for this. It's also helpful to know the rules for covering such deferrals. To make sure I'm understanding the columns, the cash flow of the payout to Ohtani is in the first and third columns, right? In March 2023, Forbes put the Dodgers' franchise value at $4.8 billion. I don't know how much a franchise grows in value, but if it's 3 percent per year for 12 years, that puts the value at about $6.8 billion when Ohtani starts to get his big checks. One wonders about the possibility of him getting into the ownership structure at that point. (Of course, that doesn't take taxes into account. Who knows where brackets will be then, but at the current top 37 percent federal and 12.3 percent California taxes, his current pay would have him in a marginal bracket hitting 50 percent on the portion for his home games and the road games in California.)

And with a headline that was clickbaity in a helpful way.

We'd find something.

Agree on the beauty of this stadium. It's definitely top five for me. As turf stadiums went, it was decent when it opened, but with each significant remodel, it's gotten better. In my mind, it will be a huge loss if it gets replaced. Royal/Kauffman holds a particular place in my heart, which I wrote about this winter. When I visited last summer, a fan relations employee went out of his way to make it a great experience. If you'd like to read it, it's the "And so concludes my Golden Anniversary" in the Blog section.* If you visit town, be sure to also visit the Negro League Baseball Museum. Then walk up the street to Arthur Bryant's for barbecue. I know there's other places in town that have their aficionados, and I like some of those as well,** but to truly experience the 18th & Vine District, it's the obvious choice.*** *I guess to be clear, I should say that's it's there whether or not you'd like to read it. That's really a silly thing we say, now that I think about it. **Gates and Sons, LC's, Woodyard, Joe's, Que 39, Jack Stack. ***There may or may not be a bottle of Arthur Bryant's Original sauce and another of their Rich and Spicy in my fridge right now.

Is there a 75 percent like button?

Though talking about the Twins HOF, you actually kinda summarized why I’m more of a Big Hall Guy for Cooperstown. After visiting a couple of times, I asked myself, to use a current example, “Does it diminish Mariano Rivera’s legacy to have Billy Wagner in the Hall?” No, we all know that Mariano was a capital S-STUD, whether there’s five relievers in the Hall or 15. But will Billy Wagner being there pump up an Astros fan and bring a new level of enjoyment to the game for that? Well, I remember how loud I yelled when Tony-O was named. So, yeah, let’s err on the side of grace. It’s a game, after all. Let’s celebrate what’s awesome about it, including this short guy who could blow the ball past just about anybody. And like you, I give “points” to guys for the things that don’t “count.” It’s the Hall of FAME. Not the Hall of Best Players. For example, given the numbers, I think Tommy John is a borderline case. Being a Big Hall Guy, I’d probably vote for him. But contribution to the game? Think of how the game has changed from him being the Guinea pig and going under the knife. Dang. With some of the cool stuff they have on display there, they should have one of Dr. Jobe’s scalpels. Shoot — when John dies, they should harvest a tendon. Okay, maybe not. But still, I think John deserves in. Or Curt Flood. His stats would be on the extreme edge, better than just a few other CFs who have been selected. But talk about a career-ending injury (to the soul). Every player who has signed a contract since Andy Messersmith should be sending Flood a Christmas card. I think he deserves inclusion, and his role in breaking the reserve clause should be on his plaque. So back to the Twins. Yes to Koskie. ————————- I’ll differ with you on the Inner Center thing, however. Not a fan of that. I think it just leads to the same tendency to denigrate. Sure, we can all agree on Willie Mays being in, since he’s first in WAR among CFs, but is the edge of the Inner Circle at Mickey Mantle (4th) or Joe DiMaggio (7th) or … Just not sure that’s worth it. Let everyone have their own mental Inner Circle if they want.

(Addendum to previous.) And to anticipate what could easily be a future debate, the current next two after Koskie are Roy Smalley and, um, Max Kepler.

I don’t have a list of Twins HOF guys, but what I can say is that Koskie is 14th in WAR among position players whose time in the franchise was primarily in Minnesota rather than Washington. I know there are some non-players among the HOFers, but that would suggest that it’s not out of line for Koskie to be the 41st member. The guys immediately above him are Dozier, Morneau (Buxton), Tovar and Hunter, before a big jump up to Bob Allison, etc. I don’t know if Dozier is in, but the other guys almost certainly are.

And if the arb-eligible players show enough this year to eat up most of that $31.4 in increased salaries, that's a good problem to have.

As you imply, wouldn't all teams' payroll limits be "self-imposed"? Because ain't nobody else putting limits on the Dodgers' spending!

No. 😏😏😏

I don't recall -- was Vazquez leading off the relay?

So you're saying there's conversation about sending Vazquez and money (let's say $3M) to the Padres and taking on Cease's $13.75M? That would mean taking on $6.75M in extra salary and we ALL know (because it's been beaten to death on TD all winter) that the FO said last September that they aren't going to reduce salary any further, which of course means that it will be the same as last year's $130ishM, Wouldn't that also mean that a bunch of us on TD were working from a lack of full information in making our definitive statements about what the team MUST do and who they have to trade to get down to that point? (Was I clear enough on the sarcasm, or do I need to add the /s symbol?)

You thought that was bad? What about the time they had Correa anchoring the 4x100 relay team?

"Quiet" does not equal "unsure." In particular, "quiet in public" does not equal "unsure." And at this point, "unsure" isn't necessarily even a weakness. If anything, it's a strength to not be making decisions without being able to test them in spring training, etc. Based on Rocco's willingess to go visit Lewis at home around the winter meetings, do we actually think that they haven't been in constant communication? I'm guessing he has access to Zoom and has a phone plan with unlimited minutes/texting. I'll take @JD-TWINS's helpful comment a step further and say they shouldn't be hashing and rehashing these things through the media.

Agreed. I was mainly noting that sportsbooks are supposed to communicate suspicious activity, but as you note, there’s nothing illegal (to my understanding) about professional athletes betting on their games. It also doesn’t seem like there’s any real motivation for them to do.

Because it involves too many bodies. I don't think teams are willing to make massive trades, including some that include MLB roster spots, this late in the offeason.

If he's in the rotation until the injury bug bites, it will have bitten by the end of April, likely earlier. That's not directed at Paddack or anyone else in particular. It's just the reality of pitchers' arms. For that reason, I'm glad to retain another arm that delays the need for Matthews (4 AAA starts to date), Raya (1 AAA start), et. al, or the need for the Dobnaks of the world. Festa will be up by by the end of April (at the latest, including if he isn't needed already by Opening Day). I'd rather it be him moving into the top 5 at some point than Matthews. (Was it you that I was having this conversation with last week in another string?) (It's actually the same reason I don't mind them saying that they are still viewing Varland as a starter. I'm skeptical it will work, but he does have some MLB experience and some potential, and it's a whole lot easier to prep for being a starter and then move to the pen than it is the other way around.)