IndianaTwin

The best recent stat in my mind is playing 64 out of 66 games after the All-Star Break. If he has that kind of health in 2026, the results will be there.

I think that... Wallner (2025 OPS was .090 under his career average heading into the year), Lewis (2025 OPS was .124 under his career average heading the year) and Lopez (pitched about 85 innings fewer in 2025 than in his prior average season) ...will all regress toward their mean as well. Further, I think their improvement will more than outweigh the decline of: Buxton, whose OPS last year was virtually the same as for the prior four years -- he just played more games. Ryan, whose strong year generally followed the typical career progression (and perhaps a bit more) for a 29 YO and is now turning only 30. SWR, an average pitcher (as defined by OPS+) who will be replaced if he declines significantly. Clemens, a below-average hitter (again, measured by OPS+) who is perhaps (hopefully) the prime position player to be replaced this winter.

And though the Twins declined Justin Topa's option don't they still retain him, since he doesn't have the years of service to become a free agent?

How about a waiver claim on Alex Lange?

Gleyber Torres had a nice little bump as well. And Spencer Torkelson righted himself.

Sounds like Beauregard was able to color outside the lines in the choice to have Outman color inside the lines.

I wasn't as Rocco-averse as many (most) on TD, but sometimes a change is needed. I thought the same thing when I read the quotes, but in a different spot he says Baldelli "had consistently offered him encouragement." I try not to play amateur psychologist, because I'm not in the room, but I can't help but having a sense that Lewis didn't click with the player to his left. He seems like a player who would respond better to Buxton's leadership style than Correa's.

"Carolina in My Mind" (deservedly) gets huge props, but here's the Carolina song I love. Some of the instrumental riffs -- wow. Oh, and if your walk's in the Raleigh suburb of Fuquay-Varina and you see IT Jr., say "Hello." Also, tell him to move back to Indiana. I miss having him around.

Thing is, when they were honest/transparent a couple years ago and said that payroll would decrease, they got excoriated for it. The hints they've given this offseason have not suggested further decrease. If anything they've pointed some level of the other direction. But they've only been hints. If they came out and said that they were planning to increase and then it didn't turn out, they would be excoriated even more severely (if that's possible).

Yes, let's combine this with the mathematical concepts outlined by @Riverbrian above. Correa: $10M Lopez and Buxton: $36.9M Higher-dollar arb guys (Ober, Jeffers, Ryan): $17M per MLBTR Pre-arb guys* -- 13 guys at $820k: $10.6M (Note: This is below RBs suggested 18, but see next line). Low-dollar arb guys (Lewis, Sands, Topa): $6M per MLBTR That's $80.7M among 20 roster spots, leaving a C2, 1B, RP, RP, RP and another hitter. Start with $5M for the 2nd catcher (Caratini?) and $15M for the three relievers (Coulombe, Pressly, Thielbar, Sewald and some of the others that have been mentioned; I'd also be glad to claim Alex Lange off waivers) and you're at $100M. RB mentions Naylor, but jeepers, if they went to $140M they could fish in the Alonso pond for the 1B if they wanted to. Or use some of it to splurge on Luke Weaver/Ryan Helsley/Kyle Finnegan or even Raisel Iglesias, all of whom MLBTR projects at $26M or less over two years and all of whom have closed, People routinely say you can't build a team on hope, but I can't recall an overall collection of pre-arb guys that provide as much hope and opportunity as the current collection. I think there's even enough in that pool to (judiciously) trade perhaps one of the SP extras and one of the OF prospects for a cost-controlled need. Also, Wallner only OPSed .771 against RHPs, which brought his career OPS down to .881 against RHP. Last year he also improved his OPS against LHPs to .790. He turns 28 next month. That screams bounce-back candidate to me. Lewis had 11 HRs and 12 SBs after the All-Star break, which was only 66 team games (and he was healthy enough to play in 62 of them). That's 27/29 pace over 162 team games. From what I gathered, his 3B defense was improved as well. He's still just 26. I'm willing to see hope in both of those guys as well. I think there's a path forward that doesn't require waiting until 2027. *3 SPs from among SWR, Bradley, Abel, Festa, Matthews, et. al; 4 RPs from the converted starters and others; 3 OFs from among Outman, Wallner, ERod, Jenkins, Martin; 3 INF in Lee, Keaschal. -------------------------------------------------- EDIT to add: See https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6806576/2025/11/14/twins-derek-shelton-managing-approach-royce-lewis/. Summary: Title is "Twins' Royce Lewis notices 'something new about the culture' manager Derek Shelton is bringing." Shelton visited Lewis in person, plans to visit Jeffers over Thanksgiving. Key quotes from Lewis: “We started off building a really good relationship. He told me I was important to him and our organization. I told him at points last year I didn’t feel like that. It was really important to me to feel that kind of confidence. “It just feels like there’s something new about the culture he’s trying to build,” Lewis said. “I just look forward to some of his ideas he had for us. Whether it’s implementing them in spring or in season, I loved the mentality he had — the ‘It’s going to take every man’ approach. It was unbelievable.” I'm willing to read hope here.

Legit.

To wit, on your "potentially solid rotation," I actually wonder if you are underselling it. How many teams have two All-Stars (Ryan and Lopez), a strong bounce-back candidate (Ober), four guys who have spent time on top 100 lists (Abel, Matthews, Bradley and SWR), another who has already made the majors (Festa) AND a couple of other guys (Morris, Rojas and probably someone I'm missing)? That has potential to move beyond "solid" to "top notch." I'm also not naive, but I'm with you in seeing a path forward. In addition to the guys you name, they also have a pretty good CF to build around.

At the level they have signed free agents recently, you don't know for sure whether you are getting Michael A. Taylor or Carlos Santana vs. Joey Gallo, but they have had some definite hits in the mid-market range. I like the thought of Victor Caratini to address the catcher issu. My hope is that the subtractions are prospects (likely OFs without the initials WJ), some of whom could certainly bring additions to the bullpen.

How about this, from the same Dan Hayes article... Even though the team’s payroll and general direction remain unclear as Twins are set to add two limited partnerships to their ownership group, Falvey said Tuesday he doesn’t want to further tear apart the club’s roster. While acknowledging he’s actively listening to all teams’ trade concepts to determine the best direction for his club, the Twins president wants to build around a roster featuring Buxton and fellow All-Stars Ryan and López if he can. “I remain personally committed to figuring out what are the ways we can add to this group to make it better,” Falvey said from the general managers meetings. “That is my goal. It was my stated goal before and remains my stated goal until I’m told otherwise. … My focus for now is figuring out ways we can add to the group.”

With only 13 position players on the 26-man and two of them being catchers, it's really hard for a team to roster a Rule 5 position player for the whole year. The decision on a guy like Rosario is essentially choosing between a 100 percent chance of keeping Rosario and a 50 percent chance of losing (someone like) McCusker when he's dropped vs. a 100 percent chance of keeping McCusker and a 10 percent chance of losing Rosario in the Rule 5. (Percentages made up to illustrate the point.)

But let’s call him “LaTroy’” rather than “Hawk.” I still have PTSD from watching White Sox games with Ken Harrelson.

I had a boss like this once.

Whatever one thinks about Falvey's decisions, I've always gotten the sense that one of his strengths is communication with players (which is completely different than communication with the public). I'm guessing Falvey found ways to at least hear from Buxton (and perhaps Lopez or other key players as well) along the way. Players talk -- I wouldn't be at all surprised if as part of the process, Falvey had a conversation with Buxton along the way that said, "Hey Byron, here's some guys we've talked to. Any vibes you've picked up from other players that we should be aware of?" It's not veto power by any stretch, but it's part of not setting a manager up for failure by not getting buy-in from key team leaders.

I’d encourage listening to the press conference. I don’t know if @Sherry Cerny was there, but this captures some of the things I heard in the recording. The quote about conversations and follow-up conversations was a comment that stood out to me as well.

I think you’re on target in naming the contextual difference of 2026 Twins and 2004 Red Sox. I don’t have a sense on how Shelton compares to the other candidates, so I don’t have an opinion on whether he was a good hire. Given the amount of distaste for ownership and the front office that you name, however, my wondering is whether Shelton is even going to be given a chance. It seems to me that a large percentage of TD readers have already declared him a failure.

Yes, thanks for embedding the video, which made it easier to find. And I acknowledge that you have an advantage I don't, for better or worse, in having history with the people you are covering. I'll also say that I got a different vibe in reading a couple other coverages of the article, which is fine in that you're three different people.

Which did speak to his comments about appreciation for the past players, though Seven would have been on the roster for one of his prior years with the Twins.

Yeah, I did. I would have picked a pretty different set of five quotes. And I'd give a different interpretation on some of the quotes that were used here. As an example, here's how another reporter covered the payroll question. While neither Falvey nor Shelton would reveal a specific payroll target for 2026, in part because of the fluidity of the offseason transaction period that is just starting, both of them gave strong hints that they won’t be asked to further pare down the roster and be forced to trade, say, one or both of their All-Star starting pitchers, Pablo López and Joe Ryan. “When I sat down with Joe Pohlad, and I asked him the question, I said, ‘What’s on the table? What’s off the table?’ And his response to me was, ‘Ask me anything you want,’” Shelton said. “I got the answers that made me really want this job.” I think this and other quotes capture the interaction better than what's in the OP. I'll echo the encouragement for folks to actually listen to the press conference.

And it seems like the perception on Gray, by all accounts a competitive dude, was based on a couple of outings where he was frustrated because he wanted to stay in the game. I WANT a player who is confident enough in his abilities to think he can get the next batter out. Let’s indeed get rid of this perception that he wanted out.

Wow. The 1977 season may be the high point of my childhood, devouring every issue of Baseball Digest and constantly pouring through the Sports Encyclopedia: Baseball, the single best Christmas gift I ever received. With a little time, I could have come up with nearly every name on the roster. Gorinksi would have been one of the last names I recalled. Thanks for jogging my memory.