IndianaTwin

From the OP: “The Twins were great, super supportive with a really good plan the whole time,” Ryan said. “They really wanted me to go. It wasn’t up to us at the end of the day.” ------------------- Selfishly, I don't mind that Ryan was able to have a 68-pitch outing on Monday as a result. Also, such a response doesn't contribute to the "Joe Ryan wants out of town as soon as possible" narrative. If that was the case, it would have been easy to provide a pretty ho-hum response toward the Twins.

I'd lean to Arcia EXCEPT for the fact that it means adding him to the 40-man roster. But then I realized that Gray is on the 40-man roster and easily DFAed.

The likelihood of Fairleigh Dickinson defeating Iowa in Saturday's NCAA women's basketball opening round is far, far greater than the likelihood of all four lefties being healthy and effective for more than a month, so having four lefties in the system isn't really a problem in the long term. So the question is whether it's an issue in the short term. If Chafin and Fundy are both better than the fifth-best righty, keep them both, start the season with four lefties and let the issue resolve itself when one of the lefties gets hurt or fails to perform and is replaced by a righty. If they are not both better than the fifth-best righty, use Fundy's option for the week or two until one of the other lefties gets hurt or fails to perform. Or if you really think you need five righties, another option is send both Abel and Matthews down for the first eight games until one is needed on April 5. Also, remember that all the starting pitchers are righties, so the opposing lineup will almost always tilt toward the left. Plan that one of the lefties will typically be the first one out of the pen, and he will either have the platoon advantage over the lineup or force the opposing manager to use pinch hitters sooner than they intend. -Really IOWATwin (Go Hawks)

After becoming just the seventh AL team to lose 100 three years in a row, I'd be glad to see them join the 1961-64 Senators as just the second team to do it four years in a row.

Are you referring to April off days? Discounting the possibility of weather issues, there are fewer off days in early April this year than is often the case. They have two off days in the first six days, but then launch into 15 straight. But, one viable option is to recognize that with those two early days off, they don't "need" a fifth starter until April 5. They could choose to send them both down and go the first week and a half with an extra guy in the bullpen, both in recognition that starters tend to go shorter earlier and that there is also some sorting out that needs to happen in the bullpen. Whichever is deemed as the "winner" of the 5th spot could start the St. Paul opener on March 31 and be brought up for the April 5 start.

Yep. It would require not only reverting to rookie year form but probably taking a step forward AND grabbing the position early enough to get the plate appearances. Not impossible, but significant challenges for either. And that's okay. He could be a significant contributor by reverting to rookie year form in 300 plate appearances and serving as a 4th outfielder behind three others who are flourishing. That only seven guys have done 20/20 (and never two in the same season) speaks to how challenging it is. (And I loved seeing the Larry Hisle reference. Even as a kid, I knew it would be hard to keep Carew, but having Hisle leave really hurt my 11-year-old spirit.)

I know that Outman is already persona non grata on TD, but he was actually 23/16 in the 2023 rookie year that created some intrigue. I didn't realize he ran that much, but it probably shouldn't have surprised me given his defensive reputation. Hopefully, if he gets playing time, it's because he's hitting, and if he's hitting enough to get playing time, he could be a candidate for 20/20.

Post All-Star Game, Lewis started all but five games and played at a 27 HR/29 SB clip. Of his 12 steals on the year, 11 were after the break. If Byron has the Buck Truck, I'm in on the Lewis Lorry. (Cool -- Google just introduced me to a new word, and it has a better flow than the Lewis Pantechnicon!)

I've found it a fun exercise from time to time to create a spreadsheet and try to plug in how I'd try to start the season in game allocation. (Queue the "spreadsheet manager" comments, but I think every team does some version of this going into the season, knowing it's going to change with injuries and performance. The Dodgers know how many games they are targeting getting from Ohtani, the Brewers how many they are targeting for Yelich, etc.). So yeah, I'd slot the catchers at 108/54 between Jeffers and Caratini and add a couple dozen to Jeffers at DH so he gets to about 130-135 total. I think they'll use a regular pattern rather than trying to match platoon situations. They were very systematic in alternating Jeffers and Vazquez. To me it makes sense to have Caratini catch the second game of every series. There will be a few cases where Jeffers starts back to back days, but with off days between series, he'll often have a day off between starts. In that pattern, maybe Jeffers then DHs in a lot of the Caratini games with a LHP for the opponents. I was going to suggest a dozen or so for Lewis, but in the five games after last year's All-Star Break that he didn't start, they gave him the whole day off (or maybe pinch hit him, but he didn't start as the DH), so maybe not.

Then there's my favorite grammar joke... A visitor walking through the Harvard campus stops to ask one of the locals, "Excuse me. Could you please tell me where the library is at?" Local, pompously: "I'm sorry, but at Harvard University, we don't end sentences with a preposition." Visitor, after pausing a moment: "Okay. Can you please tell me where the library is at, ... jerk?"

With the relative paucity of full-time DHs around the majors, it seems that predicting success is about as difficult at DH as any position. At least in bWAR, if you take out three outliers, the range from top to bottom is only from 2.2 to -1.8. Only 12 teams even have a positive bWAR, with just six above 1.0. Take out that Ohtani had all but 14 PAs at the position for LA, that the Yankees had Judge and the Phillies Schwarber and no team was above 1.6 at the position. It seems that if you have a stud it's helpful; otherwise it doesn't make a huge difference who gets your DH at bats.

While we're at it, near the top of my grammatical pet peeves is people saying, "An historic." It's not a silent "h" sound, like "honor." It's "A historic..." I usually hear that snafu from people trying to sound sophisticated. They don't. (To the point, I do like what Abel and Bradley have been showing in the rotation.)

Awesome plan. In the road trip food department, I can offer the following… Chicago to Cincy: I’m from Iowa. In my mind, the best breaded pork tenderloins are in the Hawkeye State. However, Indiana claims to have invented them and tries to proclaim itself as having the best. Again, it doesn’t. However, there are two worthy options that would require only a slight detour from Interstate 65 between Chicago and Indianapolis. One-Eyed Jack’s in Winamac is excellent. Technically it’s battered rather than breaded, so some prefer Jonesy’s Junction in Akron, which would be a slightly longer detour. In reality, neither will add a huge distance, since all roads in Indiana lead to Indy. You just might take more 4 lane than interstate. Cleveland to Milwaukee: You’ll be going across northern Indiana on the Indiana Toll Road (80/90). Midway through the state, you can hop off the road about 10 miles for the Amish buffet at the Essenhaus in Middlebury. Save room for pie. Alternatively, order off the menu so you have time to stop a few miles away at the most amazing Amish donut place you can imagine, Rise ‘N Roll, also near Middlebury. Better yet, get the buffet AND go to the donut place to get several for later. Closer to the interstate, at the Elkhart exit, is the Flippin’ Cow, home to the Stella Moo, a burger topped with brisket, bacon, onion straws and bbq sauce. Legitimately one of the best burgers I’ve ever had, but not as unique as the Amish experience near Middlebury. For any of these, let me know when you are going through. If it works for my schedule, lunch is on me.

You probably don’t like needless redundancies then, do you? 😀

Oh, boy. Let the Wallner bashing begin... /s

Ryan is actually 15 months older than Luzardo, not three as in the OP. Luzardo was one year from reaching free agency at 30. Ryan is two years from reaching free agency at 31. That's two strikes against an extension for Ryan in comparison to Luzardo.

The Mauer comparison is interesting in terms of where they spent the year. Mauer spent his 17 YO season as a junior at Cretin-Durham. Tait spent his in the Complex league and Low A. Mauer spent his 18 YO season at Cretin-Durham and Rookie League. Tait spent his at Low and High A. Mauer spent his 19 YO season in the Quad Cities at what was then Low A, Tait seems likely to start his at High A and conceivably get to AA if he performs. NOT saying Tait's a Hall of Famer, but he's at an interesting point in his development.

I can also see a path forward. I haven't actually seen any of the spring training games, so I'll take your word on where some of these guys are. I haven't been as concerned about the four LHP issue as some others have. Last year they used 26 relievers (not counting position players). Eight started on the roster, so 18 were added at some point. That doesn't consider that there was a flurry of moves at the deadline, but it also doesn't consider that some guys came up more than once. Point being, that works out to something like a bullpen transaction every 10 days or less. With four of eight lefties, that means there's a 50/50 chance of a transaction being for a lefty, so we can probably expect there being a transaction involving a lefty within about 20 days or so. Make that transaction a righty for a lefty, and we're at five RHP and three LHP. That also doesn't take into account Funderburk being optionable if there are five righties ready to take the ball on Opening Day. And if all four LHPs are healthy and effective beyond the 20 days, that's a good problem to have. Additionally, all the top starting candidates are RHP, so it does mean they will typically be facing lineups that are tilted to lefty hitters. If a LHP is the first guy out of the pen, they are often going to have a platoon advantage OR it will force an opposing manager to use pinch hitters early. So..., less than ideal to have four LHPs, but I think it's workable.

Aside from other factors (presence of optionless Outman/relatively modest number of games in AAA/service time considerations), it seems like a reason to send Rodriguez down is the opportunity to play LF or RF in St. Paul. In his minor league career, he has 2076 innings in CF, but only 107 (less than 12 games) in RF and 32 (less than 4 games) in LF. I think it will be an interesting tell to see how he is used in St. Paul. Hopefully it includes a reasonable amount of time in one of the corners. And the same for Jenkins, for that matter. He's got 859.2 innings in CF, along with 61.1 in RF and 17 in LF.

It seems like plenty on TD claim to be smarter than the Twins in their analysis of Outman. I'm not ready to make that claim about myself. He may or may not provide anything, but I have wondered whether he will even be allowed to succeed in the minds of those here. To those who have already decided that he's a flop, what level of success does he need to demonstrate to justify his worth?

My favorite stat from last year is the 549 plate appearances.

I've been saying the same. The focus on TD has often been on the bullpen, but the ceiling vs. floor variance on the hitting side is pretty large. Keaschall continuing to be a stud, Lee improving to the area of average, Martin showing that the last couple months was legit and Larnach bouncing back a bit would all be huge, but I think the key is Lewis and Wallner. Buxton, Keaschall, Wallner, Lewis, Jeffers, Larnach, Bell, Martin, Lee at their best is a pretty good lineup. All else being the same, the fall to Buxton, so-so Martin, Jeffers, Bell, Larnach, Clemens at 3B, Caratini at DH, struggling Keaschall, no-improvement Lee is not. Tweak those orders as you wish, but the point is the same. Having 2023/24 Wallner and Studley Lewis lengthens the lineup a lot. Said another way -- Bell batting seventh can be a competitive lineup. Bell batting fourth cannot.

Thing is, with Caratini and Jackson, there’s not room for Kreidler, Clemens and Martin, UNLESS they try to get by with 12 pitchers. The schedule isn’t conducive to 12 pitchers. They have the first Friday and Tuesday off, but then launch into a stint with 15 games in 15 days, so there are fewer April days off than is often the case.

I prefer bWAR for the highly scientific reason of “I’m more familiar with navigating the baseball-reference.com Web site than I am Fangraphs.” Based on bWAR, Buxton is already top 10 among Twins hitters: Carew 63.8 Killebrew 60.6* Mauer 55.6 Puckett 51.1 Oliva 43.1 Hrbek 38.6 Knoblauch 38.0 Allison 34.1* Buxton 29.8 Gaetti 27.1 Hunter 26.4 Above or near him on the pitcher side are: Blyleven 49.1 Radke 45.6 Santana 35.8 Pascual 33.2* Kaat 30.6* Viola 27.0 Those are franchise totals. I’ve asterisked the four who also played in Washington. If you want to include their stats in Washington, an argument can be included for considering Walter Johnson, but they haven't. But in most cases, people have included the Washington stats for these four, since the vast majority of their franchise time was spent in Minnesota. In Killebrew (6.7 in Washington) and Allison’s case (3.5), a bit more than 10 percent of their bWAR came in Washington, so that's defensible to include those. Kaat would actually have his total go up by 1.2 if he didn’t have to include his youngster years in Washington. The tricky one is Pascual, who had 15.1 bWAR in Washington and 18.1 in Minnesota. In looking at Puckett’s legacy in the past, I’ve framed it around a “likelihood of number being retired” discussion. Buxton only needs 8.8 to catch No. 14 and 13.3 to catch No. 6, both very doable with three more years on his contract. Don’t forget that he only played 126 games last year in getting his 4.9 bWAR. He had two short IL stints, but when not on the list, he was playing virtually every day. The two short IL stints probably cost him another 0.5 to get to 5.4. I suspect the goal for this year is at least 140 games, and years of 5.0, 4.5 and 4.0 gets him past Oliva. AND, if he actually has three more healthy years and is in the low to mid 40s after his age 34 season, there will be emotional push to extend his contract a year a few times and let him retire as a Twin. Catching Puckett frankly isn’t an impossibility. Continued decline to 3.5, 3.0 and 2.5 would do it over six years. What may hurt Buxton is if Jenkins or someone else pushes him off center field to left or even DH. The Twins obviously use more than bWAR to determine retired numbers. Kaat’s bWAR as a Twin is significantly lower than the other retired number guys, but his was retired in conjunction with his Hall of Fame induction. Hrbek clearly got a hometown popularity/two World Series bonus – his total is only 0.6 more than Knoblauch, and I don’t think Knobby has really been considered. And on the other side, if bWAR is the key factor, why have Carlos Gomez, Matt Carson, Danny Valencia, Wilkin Ramirez, Tim Stauffer, Miguel Sano, Griffin Jax and now Brooks Lee been allowed to wear No. 22? Radke’s bWAR is actually above Oliva and Hrbek. But all in all, I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance nobody else wears No. 25 in the future.

From the OP: "Here is the list of starting pitchers not on the 40-man roster the Twins have in their farm system." And "With the list of pitchers being quite long, we decided to break this up into two parts. We’ll take a look at the pitchers who were in the lower minors this past season in the next article." The pipeline doesn't start off with 4 non-prospects -- the article does. The prospects in the higher levels are on the 40-man. The prospects at the lower level are not on the 40-man and will be covered in the next list. This article is the subset with the fewest prospects.