Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

mike8791

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    495

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by mike8791

  1. mike8791
    As Twins GPF stated, you are recommending trading 2 of the top 3 hitters(and maybe your 2 best w/Bux slow return) in a lineup that already has some very streaky hitters. Trading a player like Jeffers who is almost certainly lost after this season is a no-brainer. If Zoll fails to get this done with a nice return then he is not the GM who should be responsible for leading this club back to contention. A return like Hancock or a top 100 pitching prospect should be attainable, maybe with a #10-20 prospect added as a sweetener. Trading Larnach would be a fool's errand. I realize Jenkins is in the wings but his 2026 stats would indicate he needs more time in AAA. The other OF prospects are either too injury prone(E Rod) or have defensive limitations(Gonzales/Mendez) to count on them to replace Larnach any time soon. With a combo of Keuchel/Roden as corner OFs, loss of Larnach, in addition to Jeffers, would severely dampen any fan enthusiasm remaining, kill player morale, and, if possible, further lower any credibility in ownership.
  2. mike8791
    An interesting thread, but you can throw it all away. Ryan scratched tonight for "arm soreness". His value just dropped. Not going to maximize his value now.
  3. mike8791
    The Twins must first decide who they favor after this season - Lee or Lewis. Frankly, for a championship contender, neither one should be starters at vital offensive positions like 1B or 3B, but the Twins have no ready replacements for both so trading one seems more realistic. Lee has shown decent progress offensively this year so retaining him over Lewis, who still has shown little consistency over the past 3 years, seems a no-brainer. Moving Clemens to 1B and perhaps an addition like Arraez as a short term 2Bman(assuming Culpepper and Houston are the middle infield from 2028 forward) should improve the current below average infield for this year and next. So,Yes, let's give up on the Lewis experiment, get a decent minor league pitching prospect in return, and let another team take over the angst that comes with Lewis.
  4. mike8791
    Agree my wish list is somewhat unreasonable, as obtaining all 3 of players mentioned would be an overpay, but there can be little doubt one of the trade pieces must be an established mid-rotation MLB pitcher who can step in immediately and be controllable for 3-4 years. As for the mid-lineup addition, no, I wouldn't expect an established cleanup hitter to be in the trade package, but some under 25yo who might be blocked now on a roster but with some demonstrated power potential is badly needed, particularly in the IF. I just don't think you can build a solid contender with guys like Lewis, Lee or Clemens as starters. And adding a top 100 pitching prospect is certainly doable for a #1 or 2 starter with one year + of control. We simply have a dearth of competent starters in our minor league system.
  5. mike8791
    You can't really discuss "trading ryan" without an idea of who you should get in return. First, you don't trade Ryan if you have a better than average chance of contending for the playoffs this year. The Twins 4 game losing streak would seem to put that possibility to rest. After all, most of us believe this team has over-performed this year so a return to the expected is not surprising. With that said, then listening to offers for Ryan should be on Zoll's play list the next 12 days. But a trade for prospects is not the answer. A fair return would be at least one starter to replace Ryan(albeit not an equivalent but a #3 starter), a near-ready major-league-ready infielder who has a better than even chance of filling the huge hole in the #3/4 spot in the lineup in the next 1-2 years, and maybe a high minor league pitching prospect who can reach the majors by 2028. Is that expecting too much? Perhaps, but this is what the FO should be striving for if Ryan is dealt. A Jeffers trade, which is certainly more probable, should bring in a late-inning reliever and a solid pitching prospect. Such additions, should improve our chances to be true contenders in the next 1-2 years. Unfortunately, I, too, have great reservations on Zoll's ability to structure such transactions.
  6. mike8791
    Another positive in bringing up Jenkins - it would make trading Larnach more palatable. I previously thought if the FO wanted to stay competitive, they could only afford to trade one of Larnach or Jeffers. Our offense has too many holes to trade both. Jeffers should be traded(unless Twins can resign him which at this point is a non-starter), but with Jenkins slotted in LF or RF, Jenkins and Roden could fill in well at the corners. Of course, trading makes sense only if the Twins obtained near major league prospects.
  7. mike8791
    Jamie, again, thanx for the writeup! I have one question : on Keith Law's writeup at the Athletic on Twins' picks, except for Lackey, he was decidedly negative on the rest of the top 10 draftees. Care to comment?
  8. mike8791
    Simple. Zoll took over Feb. 1st with the same knowledge everyone else had: the pen was a disaster. The Twins have made one actual trade in the interim - for Nance who was at the tail end of Toronto's pen. Everything else were waiver wire pickups. Is it any surprise our pen statistically is about the worst in baseball? So the fact is that he has hardly lifted a finger to improve a pen devastated in last year's deadline. At least Falvey had made some good trades(Bradley, Abel, Gray, Ryan). Blame ownership on the payroll, yes, but they did not tie Zoll's hands in the trade mart.
  9. mike8791
    I think you nailed it on a key point: this surprising offense is bound to decelerate. You look at the presumed starters and wonder how guys like Clemens, Kreidler, Larnach can maintain their performance given their past history Add in the erratic performances of Lee and Lewis and one wonders who are going to be the run producers in this lineup, especially with the added high probability of Jeffers being traded. As you noted, the rotation is not the strength envisioned back in April. Depth is gone and big questions remain on Ober and Prielipp. If Ryan(assuming he is not traded) and Bradley can maintain their all star performances and Mathews figures out how to keep the ball in the ballpark this will not be a bad rotation, but again, some regression seems more likely. Coupled with a very shaky pen, where only Gomez and Morris seem dependable, overall pitching is not going to carry this team to the playoffs. And how will those two hold up in the heat of a pennant race? Yes, the Twins could remain in "contention" in September but regression to the mean seems more likely, especially with Detroit's strong rebound. If I had some faith in Zoll to succeed at the trade deadline or TP to put money where his mouth is and acquire some major league ready relievers, the outlook could be improved considerably, but realistically, history says otherwise.
  10. mike8791
    If you read my post, I mention getting one reliever who can step in this year as a solid late inning arm better than 6 of our current relief staff and as a potential closer who could step in if Gomez falters - a very real possibility considering his past performance. And, yes, a second offensive addition who is close to ML ready with good potential to slide into the #3 or 4 spot as soon as next year. For trading Ryan, this would be a worthwhile trade both for now and in the future.
  11. mike8791
    There is an unstated unknown here: Is Zoll capable of identifying trade returns who would catapult the Twins into "real contenders"? He is totally unproven, but his failure as GM to trade some obvious excess, e.g., LH OFs, DH ers, and quasi-prospects who have simply not lived up to their potential, for the badly needed decent pen arms that could have made a major difference in pre-AllStar play must raise a giant flag of concern about his abilities. If he holds on to Jeffers at the deadline, this must be considered a black mark. And if he does trade Jeffers and fails to land players who can actually improve the 2026 squad, again, it would raise serious questions about his chops. I won't even address the Ryan trade possibilities for now as that ball is still up in the air at present. But, as others on the board have said, if Ryan is traded it must yield at least two major-league-regulars who can step into the closer role and cleanup hitter, if not both this year, then by 2027.
  12. mike8791
    Given the propensity of Twins to turn hot prospects into ML also-rans, color me sceptical of Marek's/KC's major league success. The even bigger Q : should the presence of either of these 2 affect the Twins #3 draft pick, where two of the three top-rated prospects are SS?
  13. mike8791
    Disagree. In case of Jeffers, for example, Yanks are in desperate need of a C and very well might part with LaGrange who would slot in as the closer. Jeffers might be a two month rental but not to the Yanks who could easily afford signing him to a long term contract. As for a Larnach, Bell or Lewis transaction, I suggested sweetening the deal with one of our top OF prospects not named Jenkins. The chances of both Rodriguez and Gonzales landing a starting position in the OF in the next 1-2 years is minimal w/ Buxton and Jenkins ahead of them, so a trade of one of them is not going to be ruinous to future contention. Of course, this is all hypothetical but a creative GM should be able to land a couple of solid relievers at the trade deadline without impairing future progress.
  14. mike8791
    Theoretically, correct, but Falvey was still there and certainly had some, maybe a lot, of influence.
  15. mike8791
    Spot on, Nick! Only 2 "reliable" options right now. No one else in that bullpen belongs on a major league contending team. After analyzing what's down in the minors, the only way for improvement is via trade. Unfortunately, based on his 5 months as GM, there is little reason to believe Zoll has the chops to make wise trades - ones that can improve the team this year without hurting the longer term rebuild to contention. His continuing dumpster dive into the waiver wire is perhaps a good window into his mindset. No doubt there are trade possibilities out there. The top 2 who could land a late-inning closer are Ryan and Jeffers. More than a reliever would be needed in return but a deal that invoves a top 2B prospect, perhaps a corner OFer with some pop, and an established reliever could lead to a better team even this year. More likely, trading one orb more of our veterans like Larnach, Bell, Wallner. or Lewis might yield a couple of capable arms for the pen. Throw in one of our AAA OF prospects(not Jenkins) and the yield would be even better. Time for Zoll to earn his salary! I'm a big sceptic here - he looks like Failvey 2.0 but one has to hope!
  16. mike8791
    My ideal draft would have Flora as #3 pick for Twins but only if a miracle occurred and the Pohlads committed to resigning Jeffers. Assuming that is not going to happen, then yes, Lackey should be the pick, if available. However, I think odds are less than 50:50 that Lackey will be available, so then we are looking at a choice among Cholowsky, Emerson or Flora. Twins cannot really afford to take a chance on a HS SS, as their window for contention is likely to be open in the 2027-2029 period and its highly doubtful Emerson would be able to contribute by then. So if Cholowsky is off the board, then Flora should be the pick. The real question should be if both Cholowsky and Lackey were available at #3, who should the Twins select.? What a nice option to have!! While the Twins have some highly rated prospects at both positions, it seems with Culpepper and Houston, one of these two should likely turn into a solid major leaguer, while Tait is really the only solid prospect at C, at least for the next 2-3 years. So, in this ideal scenario, Lackey would be the preferred choice. In any case, this will be a fascinating draft!
  17. mike8791
    While Paredes has been a pleasant surprise, let's not get too carried away with his ability to improve the pen. A good reliever must have a much better K rate than Paredes. He might be able to improve his K rate with shorter outings, thereby focusing on using his best pitches more, but he is not going to fill the gaping hole of a late inning reliever. Not to say he couldn't be a long reliever(2+ innings), thereby replacing the likes of Funderburk, Adams, Lawyerson, Orze or Rogers. Morris and Gomez are the only two relievers that can be trusted in tight games. Bring Rojas up and give him a chance to be the third late-inning reliever. Paredes is for mid-relief only.
  18. mike8791
    Seriously, other than seeing the man at some press conferences, saying Twins are not trading Buxton, and living off the waiver wires to churn the bullpen, what has he done in the last 5 months that any logarithm couldn't do? I'm no AI expert, but really any semi-intelligent coder could program a course of action better than we have witnessed from Z-man. Couldn't a coder run thru a daily waiver wire and pick the oldest, most over-the-hill relievers, throw them up against ML hitters and get better results than our aspiring GM? OK, Gomez has worked out and maybe Banda has turned things around a bit, but looking at the garbage heap of signed & released waiver wire pickups this season brings into question if Zoll is a machine or a real baseball guy. After all computers aren't yet able to strategize - a trait that Zoll fits perfectly. I guess we'll learn more come trade deadline, but his lack of results, particularly in the pen where even the most casual fan realized we had nothing going into the season, makes me wonder whether the Pohlads could save even more money(and embarrassment) by dumping Zoll for Chat GPT.
  19. mike8791
    I haven't the faintest idea on the long term merits of KC/Houston vs. Cholowsky/Emerson, but the former duo's high performance at AAA and A+ means they have greater potential to help the major league team in the next 2-3 years than the draft picks. The reason I prefer either Lackey or Flora is both those positions are very problematical currently. With the likelihood of Jeffers being moved by the deadline, the need for Lackey becomes even more pronounced. Unfortunately, I highly doubt he'll fall to #3 which is why I elevate Flora over either of the 2 SS.
  20. mike8791
    I'm sorry, but drafting a SS, epecially a prep, makes little sense for a team that needs to be in contention in the next 2 years. The Twins have 2 highly touted SS prospects in Culpepper and Houston. Yes, the chances are slim that both will emerge as stars but is a 50;50 chance that one will? Lackey or Flora are at positions the Twins sorely need improvement and are much closer to the majors than Emerson. I know the mantra is choose the best player available, but the Twins needs at C and SP are substantial, while maybe not so much at SS. Of course, no one knows how these 4 will turn out, but SS needs rank below C/P if we are to believe all the hype on Culpepper/Houston.
  21. mike8791
    With a 1.56 WHIP and .295 BA against, how in the world is Mathews a potential late inning stalwart.? Yes, his K/9 is good, as is his K:BB ratio., but an effective reliever should at least have a WHIP<1.20 and BAA< .250. No matter how you interpret his #s, there is just no way you can count on this guy. It is a testament to Zoll's ineptness that he has not added at least one stopper-type reliever in the 6 months he has been in charge. Which is why I hope he sits on his hands once more thru the trading deadline for fear he gives up valuable assets like Ryan and Jeffers for more "prospects". I shudder to think what a well-run org. will be able to foist on such a clueless guy.
  22. mike8791
    Too many keep thinking the Twins are deep in pitching. I don't buy it! Right now, we have ONE reliable starter in Ryan, who probably(and should be) traded. What earlier looked like a strong rotation is a mess now. With Bradley, Mathews, and Ober looking shaky recently, Prielipp a big ? mark, and Lopez out, who will constitute the staff next year or in 2028? Maybe Abel will fulfill his promise, But if contention is the goal for 2028, who would you count on? I don't know if Flora is a sure bet but he seems to be head and shoulders above any other pitcher. Finding a #1 or 2 starter is very difficult. The Twins have not drafted one since, Radke. While the Twins have many holes in their lineup, there are some minor leaguers that look promising, especially in the OF. Trading Ryan could bring a badly needed cleanup hitter back. While the IF is a mess right now, they seem to have a group with high upsides(Culpepper, Houston + Lee/Lewis rebounding) that might contribute on a contending team. It really comes down to choosing a SP or C in the draft. All depends on the guesswork involved in which one is available and which candidate has the highest upside. My pick would be Flora + resign Jeffers, but with this ownership mess, hardly likely, I'm afraid.
  23. mike8791
    This is a difficult choice, for sure. While the Twins seemed to have a surplus of starters, injuries and/or poor performance have decimated the staff: Lopez, SWR, Abel, Ober, Rojas. Since you can never have enough pitching, I'd opt for Flora at #3. One of Lackey, Cholowsky or Emerson would be hard to pass, but the presence of Tait and Jiminez seems likely to produce a Catcher for the future and the Rays seem more likely to go for Lackey. Same for the SS position - both Culpepper and Houston look like above average prospects, so why go for a HS SS(Emerson)? Of course, the ideal situation would be for TP to put his money where his mouth is and resign Jeffrey, but does anyone believe this is likely? Flora seems to have a track record that seems to fit well for a 2027/8 rotation spot. And by adding Flora the Twins might be more willing to part w/Ryan at the trade deadline, bringing back maybe 2 major leaguers ready to fill the huge holes in the IF. Lots of guesswork here. Hopefully, Zoll and co. have more sense than Failvey did when drafting Lewis.
  24. mike8791
    Well said, Nick! What to do with Ryan is the key question for this FO. If they think this team is a real contender this season, then they should keep him. But in reality, this team, while playing better than most expected, is a pretender in 2026. Their putrid offense and bullpen are all too apparent to even the most casual observer. The Twins started rebuilding last August and should continue this trading season. Maximize Ryan's value now and the Twins could greatly improve their chances next season, even without Ryan. Adding some power bats and a closer would greatly bolster this team next season, especially w/Lopez's return, continued promise from Bradley, Abel and Mathews and perhaps the emergence of Rojas. No idea exactly who the Twins should target as a trade partner, but from my vantage point here in Chicago, the Cubs seem an ideal target. They badly need an ace to remain in the race and they have some nice offensive players on the verge. Just to throw out a good package, how about Shaw, Long and Palencia for Ryan? This trade would help both teams. There are many more possibilities but this FO must do something to progress to the next level. One thing we know they won't do and that is fork over big contracts for their star players or any other top FAs. Trading Ryan is the only logical step they can take.
  25. mike8791
    Agree! Long and Shaw would be a nice package. Not sure if that's enough for Ryan, though. Add Palencia, maybe? What's hurting Twins is Abel's uncertainty and Prielipp falling off a cliff(not unexpected, BTW). If Abel is expected back soon, then Ryan becomes a more likely trade piece. In any case, the Cubs/Twins appear to be ideal trade partners.
×
×
  • Create New...