mike8791

Given the propensity of Twins to turn hot prospects into ML also-rans, color me sceptical of Marek's/KC's major league success. The even bigger Q : should the presence of either of these 2 affect the Twins #3 draft pick, where two of the three top-rated prospects are SS?

Disagree. In case of Jeffers, for example, Yanks are in desperate need of a C and very well might part with LaGrange who would slot in as the closer. Jeffers might be a two month rental but not to the Yanks who could easily afford signing him to a long term contract. As for a Larnach, Bell or Lewis transaction, I suggested sweetening the deal with one of our top OF prospects not named Jenkins. The chances of both Rodriguez and Gonzales landing a starting position in the OF in the next 1-2 years is minimal w/ Buxton and Jenkins ahead of them, so a trade of one of them is not going to be ruinous to future contention. Of course, this is all hypothetical but a creative GM should be able to land a couple of solid relievers at the trade deadline without impairing future progress.

Theoretically, correct, but Falvey was still there and certainly had some, maybe a lot, of influence.

Spot on, Nick! Only 2 "reliable" options right now. No one else in that bullpen belongs on a major league contending team. After analyzing what's down in the minors, the only way for improvement is via trade. Unfortunately, based on his 5 months as GM, there is little reason to believe Zoll has the chops to make wise trades - ones that can improve the team this year without hurting the longer term rebuild to contention. His continuing dumpster dive into the waiver wire is perhaps a good window into his mindset. No doubt there are trade possibilities out there. The top 2 who could land a late-inning closer are Ryan and Jeffers. More than a reliever would be needed in return but a deal that invoves a top 2B prospect, perhaps a corner OFer with some pop, and an established reliever could lead to a better team even this year. More likely, trading one orb more of our veterans like Larnach, Bell, Wallner. or Lewis might yield a couple of capable arms for the pen. Throw in one of our AAA OF prospects(not Jenkins) and the yield would be even better. Time for Zoll to earn his salary! I'm a big sceptic here - he looks like Failvey 2.0 but one has to hope!

My ideal draft would have Flora as #3 pick for Twins but only if a miracle occurred and the Pohlads committed to resigning Jeffers. Assuming that is not going to happen, then yes, Lackey should be the pick, if available. However, I think odds are less than 50:50 that Lackey will be available, so then we are looking at a choice among Cholowsky, Emerson or Flora. Twins cannot really afford to take a chance on a HS SS, as their window for contention is likely to be open in the 2027-2029 period and its highly doubtful Emerson would be able to contribute by then. So if Cholowsky is off the board, then Flora should be the pick. The real question should be if both Cholowsky and Lackey were available at #3, who should the Twins select.? What a nice option to have!! While the Twins have some highly rated prospects at both positions, it seems with Culpepper and Houston, one of these two should likely turn into a solid major leaguer, while Tait is really the only solid prospect at C, at least for the next 2-3 years. So, in this ideal scenario, Lackey would be the preferred choice. In any case, this will be a fascinating draft!

While Paredes has been a pleasant surprise, let's not get too carried away with his ability to improve the pen. A good reliever must have a much better K rate than Paredes. He might be able to improve his K rate with shorter outings, thereby focusing on using his best pitches more, but he is not going to fill the gaping hole of a late inning reliever. Not to say he couldn't be a long reliever(2+ innings), thereby replacing the likes of Funderburk, Adams, Lawyerson, Orze or Rogers. Morris and Gomez are the only two relievers that can be trusted in tight games. Bring Rojas up and give him a chance to be the third late-inning reliever. Paredes is for mid-relief only.

Seriously, other than seeing the man at some press conferences, saying Twins are not trading Buxton, and living off the waiver wires to churn the bullpen, what has he done in the last 5 months that any logarithm couldn't do? I'm no AI expert, but really any semi-intelligent coder could program a course of action better than we have witnessed from Z-man. Couldn't a coder run thru a daily waiver wire and pick the oldest, most over-the-hill relievers, throw them up against ML hitters and get better results than our aspiring GM? OK, Gomez has worked out and maybe Banda has turned things around a bit, but looking at the garbage heap of signed & released waiver wire pickups this season brings into question if Zoll is a machine or a real baseball guy. After all computers aren't yet able to strategize - a trait that Zoll fits perfectly. I guess we'll learn more come trade deadline, but his lack of results, particularly in the pen where even the most casual fan realized we had nothing going into the season, makes me wonder whether the Pohlads could save even more money(and embarrassment) by dumping Zoll for Chat GPT.

I haven't the faintest idea on the long term merits of KC/Houston vs. Cholowsky/Emerson, but the former duo's high performance at AAA and A+ means they have greater potential to help the major league team in the next 2-3 years than the draft picks. The reason I prefer either Lackey or Flora is both those positions are very problematical currently. With the likelihood of Jeffers being moved by the deadline, the need for Lackey becomes even more pronounced. Unfortunately, I highly doubt he'll fall to #3 which is why I elevate Flora over either of the 2 SS.

I'm sorry, but drafting a SS, epecially a prep, makes little sense for a team that needs to be in contention in the next 2 years. The Twins have 2 highly touted SS prospects in Culpepper and Houston. Yes, the chances are slim that both will emerge as stars but is a 50;50 chance that one will? Lackey or Flora are at positions the Twins sorely need improvement and are much closer to the majors than Emerson. I know the mantra is choose the best player available, but the Twins needs at C and SP are substantial, while maybe not so much at SS. Of course, no one knows how these 4 will turn out, but SS needs rank below C/P if we are to believe all the hype on Culpepper/Houston.

With a 1.56 WHIP and .295 BA against, how in the world is Mathews a potential late inning stalwart.? Yes, his K/9 is good, as is his K:BB ratio., but an effective reliever should at least have a WHIP<1.20 and BAA< .250. No matter how you interpret his #s, there is just no way you can count on this guy. It is a testament to Zoll's ineptness that he has not added at least one stopper-type reliever in the 6 months he has been in charge. Which is why I hope he sits on his hands once more thru the trading deadline for fear he gives up valuable assets like Ryan and Jeffers for more "prospects". I shudder to think what a well-run org. will be able to foist on such a clueless guy.

Too many keep thinking the Twins are deep in pitching. I don't buy it! Right now, we have ONE reliable starter in Ryan, who probably(and should be) traded. What earlier looked like a strong rotation is a mess now. With Bradley, Mathews, and Ober looking shaky recently, Prielipp a big ? mark, and Lopez out, who will constitute the staff next year or in 2028? Maybe Abel will fulfill his promise, But if contention is the goal for 2028, who would you count on? I don't know if Flora is a sure bet but he seems to be head and shoulders above any other pitcher. Finding a #1 or 2 starter is very difficult. The Twins have not drafted one since, Radke. While the Twins have many holes in their lineup, there are some minor leaguers that look promising, especially in the OF. Trading Ryan could bring a badly needed cleanup hitter back. While the IF is a mess right now, they seem to have a group with high upsides(Culpepper, Houston + Lee/Lewis rebounding) that might contribute on a contending team. It really comes down to choosing a SP or C in the draft. All depends on the guesswork involved in which one is available and which candidate has the highest upside. My pick would be Flora + resign Jeffers, but with this ownership mess, hardly likely, I'm afraid.

This is a difficult choice, for sure. While the Twins seemed to have a surplus of starters, injuries and/or poor performance have decimated the staff: Lopez, SWR, Abel, Ober, Rojas. Since you can never have enough pitching, I'd opt for Flora at #3. One of Lackey, Cholowsky or Emerson would be hard to pass, but the presence of Tait and Jiminez seems likely to produce a Catcher for the future and the Rays seem more likely to go for Lackey. Same for the SS position - both Culpepper and Houston look like above average prospects, so why go for a HS SS(Emerson)? Of course, the ideal situation would be for TP to put his money where his mouth is and resign Jeffrey, but does anyone believe this is likely? Flora seems to have a track record that seems to fit well for a 2027/8 rotation spot. And by adding Flora the Twins might be more willing to part w/Ryan at the trade deadline, bringing back maybe 2 major leaguers ready to fill the huge holes in the IF. Lots of guesswork here. Hopefully, Zoll and co. have more sense than Failvey did when drafting Lewis.

Well said, Nick! What to do with Ryan is the key question for this FO. If they think this team is a real contender this season, then they should keep him. But in reality, this team, while playing better than most expected, is a pretender in 2026. Their putrid offense and bullpen are all too apparent to even the most casual observer. The Twins started rebuilding last August and should continue this trading season. Maximize Ryan's value now and the Twins could greatly improve their chances next season, even without Ryan. Adding some power bats and a closer would greatly bolster this team next season, especially w/Lopez's return, continued promise from Bradley, Abel and Mathews and perhaps the emergence of Rojas. No idea exactly who the Twins should target as a trade partner, but from my vantage point here in Chicago, the Cubs seem an ideal target. They badly need an ace to remain in the race and they have some nice offensive players on the verge. Just to throw out a good package, how about Shaw, Long and Palencia for Ryan? This trade would help both teams. There are many more possibilities but this FO must do something to progress to the next level. One thing we know they won't do and that is fork over big contracts for their star players or any other top FAs. Trading Ryan is the only logical step they can take.

Agree! Long and Shaw would be a nice package. Not sure if that's enough for Ryan, though. Add Palencia, maybe? What's hurting Twins is Abel's uncertainty and Prielipp falling off a cliff(not unexpected, BTW). If Abel is expected back soon, then Ryan becomes a more likely trade piece. In any case, the Cubs/Twins appear to be ideal trade partners.

It should be pretty obvious by now that Lewis is a head case and will never emerge as the offensive force everyone envisioned. No, better to trade him and let someone else try to deal with him. Add Wallner to the mix + someone like Ober and one of our top 10 prospects and just maybe we could land a starting 1B or 3B who would better supply the thump this lineup so desperately needs. The question Zoll faces is this '26 Twins team a genuine contender for the playoffs? Still highly doubtful, but at least 1/3 thru thye season we're still in the hunt. In any case, it's time to build for the future and let the rooks play or roll the dice, trade for a major league hitter and go for it this year. But relying on fringe guys like Clemens, Gray, Kreidler, Arcia is simply a losing proposition - both short and long term.

If we look at Twins most pressing needs, the list is long, but I would say top 3 now are: 1.) Need for a potential cleanup hitter with 30/100rbi potential; 2.) a genuine closer; 3.) A long term SS. I have focused on a Cubs/twins trade featuring Ryan because the Cubs are in a win-now mode and Twins seem loaded with starters. So, with those assumptions, I feel the Cubs badly need Ryan and would overpay. Shaw tops the return list because he has shown his potential in his first full season and is expendable. But he is not enough, of course. My second demand would be Danny Palencia who showed good potential in 2025 as a closer with his 100mph heater. To complete the trade I would like to see Ben Brown added. If he is untouchable, I'll take Alcantara. While Twins have a crop of top OF prospects at AAA, Rodriguez looks very iffy with all his injuries and Gonzales's defense is shaky. While 1 of the 3(incl. Jenkins) should be a good bet to be starting in 2027, Alcantara would lift the ceiling of the Twins OF long term. If you think the Twins are really contenders this year, then no, you don't trade Ryan, but this hope is really a pipe dream. Trading Ryan for a package of Shaw/Palencia/ Brown and/or Palencia would, IMO, raise the ceiling for next year.

Strongly disagree on Shaw. With 13HR, 17SB, and a 3.1 WAR and excellent defense at 3B in his first full season, Shaw has shown excellent potential. Cubs signed Bregman so Shaw lost his position but has filled in as a utility IF and OF this year. He is blocked by high $ starters and so would be available. Not a one for one for Ryan by any stretch, but perhaps for someone like Ober + prospects. No doubt he would start for the Twins, be a long term addition and could blossom into a middle-of-the-order bat.

I absolutely do not trade Ryan for prospects - no matter how high they are rated! Maybe Ober and a younger pitcher for a top 50 IF prospect with middle-of-the-order potential(probably our biggest need at this moment). Ryan is one of only 2 or 3 potential starters that might be available in trade this summer - and who would fit in as #1 or 2 in a rotation. You do not give him up for a prospect, especially with a second season of availability before FA. Normally, you do not trade your top starter at all, but this is the Twins we're talking about. They are simply not a contending team this year, nor will this ownership pay $150-200MM for a long term extension. With some emerging pitching talent seemingly close, and Lopez returning next year, this is the time to be talking to other teams. If Zoll is not doing this, then we are looking at a Failvey 2.0 here. The Twins have so many glaring holes now that it is impossible to fill them all, but at least they could maximize their competitive trade advantage by talking to contenders needing rotation help about emerging players who maybe are blocked or who they deem expendable because of strong offenses already. There are certain candidates that stand out: Matt Shaw(Cubs); Caminero(Rays); CJ Abrams(Nats). The last two names are improbable, Shaw seems more likely. Any one of these players are likely to immediately bolster the middle of the lineup, as well as defensively. I'm sure there are other players available, but these are the types we should aim for.

Nice article Matt! While my expectations for 2026 were as low as they've been in years, as we approach the 1/3 mark of the season, the Twins are still very much in contention. Of course, this is much more attributable to the shockingly poor performance of the Tigers and Royals, but why kick a gift horse in the mouth? As you point out, sub performances by Lewis and Wallner have hamstrung the offense, as has the bullpen muddle. With Jeffers out now, the offense looks in worse shape. Still, there have been some surprising contributions from guys like Clemens, Gray, and in a small sample size, Kreider. No, this is not murderers row, but at least there's a glimmer of hope that with the sure outs removed from the lineup, there is a stronger possibility that this lineup could trend towards an average offense. And while the pen is still a mess, there has been some recent, albeit limited, success from guys like Morris, Banda, and Gomez. We'll have to wait awhile to see if they're just a flash in the "pen" , but at least we have a little more hope for improvement. But as you mention, despite the injuries, the rotation is cause for real optimism: Ryan is a s good as ever, Ober is at least serviceable, Mathews and Prielipp have given the rotation a big boost, and with Bradley and Abel on the mend, our SP looks like a strength. The big question: do we have enough SP to allow for a trade of Ryan? This is so important because Ryan is the one player on the team who could fill the glaring hole on this club - a bonafide cleanup hitter. Not sure if Zoll is capable of achieving such an outcome, but if he could, it could be a step forward to real contention, even this year. At least there's a glimmer of hope now!

Law just published his top draft picks: #1-Cholowsky; #2-Lackey; #3- Flora. These rankings were only based on ability and are not related to teams' picks. Cholowsky has been #1 for most "experts" all year. Lackey at #2 seems unusually high, but Law is probably one of the most respected prospect analysts in the game. With TB's need for catching well known, might Lackey go #2? Seems a bit more likely than them going for a HS SS. Looking at Law's writeup on Flora, he would seem to be an ideal fit for the Twins, at least in terms of being ML ready, with his 98-100mph FB, excellent control and the #1 rated pitcher in Division 1. I, for one, would much rather add this top-of-the-rotation candidate who could probably advance rapidly thru the minors to MLB in '28 or '29 than a HS SS. Of course, if one of Cholowsky/Lackey slip to #3, then it's anybody's guess.

Normally, teams take the best player available in the first round. Lackey very well might be that player at #3. But isn't that overlooking Tait? Impossible to predict his major league future, but all reports I've read indicate he has the offense/defense chops to replace Jeffers, if not next year, certainly in 2028( at least that's the probable reason they signed Caratini to a 2 year contract). So would a Lackey pick fill a real need or would it be a move to enhance an already strong position? I would hope they try to fill a more immediate need, e.g., a future SS with both high offensive and defensive potential, a IB or 3B who looks like a badly-needed cleanup hitter or 100mph flamethrower who could slot in as atop-of-rotation arm or a Duran-like closer? Tough decision. A lot depends on how they view Tate's future - as a potential all star catcher or an average regular. The choice of Lackey would seem to indicate their lack of trust in Tait. As we have seen so many times with this FO, heralded rookies have stumbled badly. Not one All Star has emerged under Falvey's regime. This is a key time for Zoll and the entire Twins' organization to get it right. After all, hopefully, this will be the highest pick the Twins will see in the foreseeable future.

You've got to be kidding!! Either that or desperate.

If you really believe the Twins can compete the entire season with this bullpen then, no, Ryan shouldn't be traded. But with the pen's performance to date, coupled with the FOs feeble attempts to add "talent" with their waiver wire pickups, such a belief is totally unrealistic, especially when you add in the holes in the lineup and subpar defense. If Ryan returns to form in the next few weeks, then a trade should be considered, but only if it brings back one sure-fire major leaguer(either for 1B, 3B, or SS) plus one top 100 MLB prospect. There are a number of true-contenders, like Cubs, Astros, Padres, Tigers, who have been devastated by injuries to their rotations. We have the makings of a decent rotation, led by Bradley& Abel, with Ober,and Prielipp, plus either Mathews, SWR, or Rojas as possibilities for #5 spot. This is not a contender's rotation this year but with Lopez back next year, this could be an above average rotation in 2027, even without Ryan. I don't expect anything to happen before the trade deadline but at the very least this FO should be listening to offers and pull the trigger if they can greatly improve a below average lineup with one or two starting players.

Matt, nice analysis! But to me these articles are just grasping at straws. I like evaluating relievers at least partly by WHIP. Here are the stats so far: Banda1.62. Funderburk1.7. Rogers1.64, Orza1.43, Sands1.58, Topa 1.62, Morris(in only 3IP) - 2.0. Granted these are small sample sizes but WHIPs that high are indicative of tough times, especially in late inning, tight ballgames - which we have not had yet. I am thrilled with the Twins surprising start. The offense has far exceeded expectations, at least 3 starters look solid, and the team has slowly gained confidence in themselves. But realistically this bullpen is still the major achilles heel - one that will eventually drag this team down. Perhaps Lawyerson and Acton will develop into trustworthy arms and there is certainly some chance that at least one of Sands/Topa/Morris might also, but this current pen is woefully short of talent. Zoll should be on the phone now trying to pry at least one proven pen arm who has a better chance of succeeding in late inning, tight games. We have a major surplus of OFs, at least one of whom should land a decent arm. And TP must open his wallet to acquire someone like Kopech who is risky but more likely to be an improvement over the current lot. If ownership is truly committed to winning, now is the time to show fans and the players they are serious and augment the roster with badly needed help.

Trying to be optimistic about 2026, but Lewis has given us no reason to believe he can turn things around. As NYCTK wrote, a <.300 OBP over his last 600ABs is pretty indicative of his future potential. No, I wouldn't send him down yet, but a short lease would be appropriate - maybe thru May before making the decision. After that, time to move Lee to 3rd and bring up Culpepper. This should be the season to determine who's the core and who's not. No one(other than TP) can really believe this is a competitive team in 2026. Bite the bullet on underperformers and bring up the rooks as necessary. These guys have had their chance(I'm looking at you Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, Ober, et. al.) If they continue their lethargic play in the first 2 months, don't waste another year on a dream. See what the future brings!