mike8791

Nice article! His decline has been noticeable, as you note. Logic says he is walking on thin ice and blown saves(and losses) are looming. With the playoffs still in sight, how long is Shelty going to stick with him? Loyalty is nice, but so are wins. The big question is who would replace him? Based on his track record before this year, Hoffman would seemingly be the choice, but he was replaced as the closer in Toronto and has continued(in a limited sample size) with the Twins to show an alarming tendency for BB. Minter is a lefty specialist, but how effective would he be against RHers? The one guy who has been consistent has been Morris. He would be my first choice, but with the deadline additions, would Shelty go with the rookie? I would hope he's been seriously considering a move here. The Twins have gone "all in" (for the Twins at least) to stay in the hunt. A couple of costly pen meltdowns could doom their already slim chances. How long he sticks with Gomez will go a long way to determining the team's chance to play in October.

I might be rushing things a bit, but to really solidify the IF, at some point I would like to see our best fielder, Houston, play SS and Culpepper playing 2nd. Twins should be moving Houston to AAA now so that we have some better idea how successful he'd be in the majors. Of course, this presumes Lee and Lewis are the long term answers at 3B and 1B. Some big question marks going forward but that future looks far more promising than anything we've seen in years.

Oops! Correct KC did play 2. We'll have to differ on youth this year. Despite the Twins' surprising performance, at this point the odds of them making the playoff seem slim. Miracles can happen, but loss of Ryan & Bux are too big of an obstacle. With a much better pen and a hopefully healthy Lopez and Abel, next year looks more promising. But the lineup, less Jeffers, not so much. Why not spend the last 43 games to see what the rooks can do? Not only might one or two demonstrate they're ready to contribute, but it would also give the FO a better idea what the team needs in the offseason to bolster weak spots.

As usual, nice write up. It has been a rewarding/frustrating season. The Twins can't seem to put it all together. First, the rotation was strong, but the pen was a disaster. Then in July, the offense ratcheted up, while the rotation spiraled. Now the pen has sparkled but the offense is missing. So what does it all mean? First, the team, sans Ryan and Buxton, has no stars to consistently lift the club into serious playoff contention. Our hitters are streaky; maybe Larnach and Jeffers get hot, then Bell and Lewis but over the whole season this lineup is full of holes. There are simply too many AAAA players who cannot be counted to deliver on even a semi-regular basis. And the FO did nothing to address the lineup at the deadline. All that's left, is to roll the dice, replace guys like Rodon, Martin, Kreidler, and Jackson with the top prospects and hope one or two provide a spark. Culpepper might be a start, but he has to play in more than one of three games. Walker is overdue for a callup. Perhaps even Houston and Mendez in September. I don't expect such promotions will lift this club into contention this year, but major league experience will be essential going forward. Maybe we can even hope ownership will spring for one or two FAs in the offseason who might add a little consistency to the lineup and/or the rotation. Better yet, new ownership and FO!

I, for one, was very relieved the Astro deal fell through. In a perceptive article a few weeks ago, you noted that an offensive regression was a major threat to Twins staying in contention this year. You were spot on! The Twins offense has tanked. So why would trading Larnach, arguably one of the two best hitters in the lineup, helped? As you noted, Abreu and Hoffman are pretty similar, at least in their 2026 performance. The Twins kept Larnach and got a solid late inning reliever. That was a win-win. TP repeatedly said the Twins would be buyers, not sellers. Giving up Hill to help the team win now was the right move, at least for this year and next. Theoretically our rotation should be a strength next year, assuming Lopez and Abel are healthy. No one expected the team to be in contention this year so their performance is a pleasant surprise, but it's been clear to most of us that this team has too many holes to make the playoffs. Improving the pen was a nice start, but for Tom to be taken seriously, he and Zoll must commit in the offseason to bolster the lineup both in FA and in promoting the right prospects. That will be the real test in ownership's commitment to fielding a real contender.

So glad that Houston owner 86ed the trade for Larnach. While our bullpen could certainly use an established RH late-inning reliever, the pen has morphed into a league-average group recently. For the stretch run, right now, the Twins biggest weakness is their offense. Just take a look at their run production since the AS break. Need more input, look at the lack of run production in the KC series. Two miracle comebacks in the 9th are hardly indicative of offensive prowess. With Buxton on the IL and Larnach gone, does anyone believe that Jenkins is ready to step in immediately and replace Larnach's offense? Trading Larnach would further stress a depleted lineup, especially if the return was a reliever. No doubt, addition of an established closer would strengthen the pen, but is the cost of Larnach worth it? With Jeffers approaching FA and with decent catching depth present, if we were to trade offense for pitching, he is the one to be traded. Not for a reliever but as part of a trade for a solid mid-starter. If such a return is not feasible than Tom has to put $ into the equation to pay down the remaining salary of one of several available, established starters like Ray, Peralta, Gausman or May to lessen the cost of such an acquisition to perhaps, prospects, rather than Larnach or Jeffers. This is the way that Twins become true contenders for the playoffs.

Not sure if these 2 marginal trades are indicative of a real push over the next 2 days to turn this team into a real contender or just putting lipstick on the proverbial pig to help fan appeal. A real push would entail taking on a strong #3 rotation arm like Ray or Gausman by taking on remaining salary and giving up maybe a top 10 prospect. The other major move would be to unload soon-to-be FA Jeffers for a solid #3/4 arm who would provide additional service beyond this year. At this point with the team solidly in WC hunt, I hope they keep Jeffers(one of their top 2 batters in a lineup sorely lacking talent) and spend some money now to elevate the rotation.

Couldn't agree more! The Twins are now fringe playoff contenders. I know, only one game behind in WC race, but with glaring holes everywhere. The pen has stabilized somewhat and the additions of Nance and now Minter will help. It's not a great pen, but it's no longer the albatross it was earlier. No one knows whether guys like Morris and Gomez will wilt in a playoff chase, but so far so good. The fact is, the Twins have only so many tradeable assets. A proven rotation arm would be a big help to a depleted staff that seems to be tottering. Unfortunately, the offense is also a major problem. With the exception of two miracle 9th inning comebacks against the Royals, the bats have been silent. So trading in-demand assets like Jeffers or Larnach, especially with Buxton out, seems increasingly unlikely. Now the Twins seemingly must draw to an inside straight to become genuine contenders. They need a starter and some more punch. If Larnach and Jeffers are retained, they must be willing to make some top 10 prospects available and be willing to take on additional salary. Robbie Ray would be a much needed addition but someone like ERod or Gonzales or Tait would probably be required. As for offense, a middle-of-the lineup guy will be even harder to obtain. The Twins would probably have to offer someone like Keaschall, Lee or Lewis in addition to prospects to land a significant offensive force. Is all this possible? Yes, but it will take some outstanding ability to accomplish it. Is Zoll up to the task?

Enjoyed the article, Greg. Thanks, but I still cannot forget his failure at the trade deadline, 2024, when his sole move was adding Trevor Richards. The Twins were 7 games over .500 and badly needed some reinforcements to stay in the playoff hunt. Falvey sat on his hands and Twins faltered badly down the stretch. No excuse for his inaction. While I have my reservations about Zoll, and this current Twins team is far inferior to the 2024 squad that reached a season high 17 wins above .500 in July, I am encouraged by his early trade for Minter. You just can't dismiss the effect on team morale when the brass does nothing at the trade deadline.

Let's at least be realistic. While some sceptics might disparage Hancock's 2026 performance as a freak occurrence, I look at his record and ask - would he be a significant upgrade in our rotation? Absolutely! Behind Ryan and Btadley, we have no one who can be counted on in a playoff. Ober would probably get the nod for game 3 but can we really count on a guy who can't even touch 90 with his fastball? Mathews is likely to be torched for the HR ball by a good hitting team and Prielipp is nearing the end of his useful life with more IP than he has ever achieved. Hancock would be a massive improvement over the current roster. Of course, the big question is what would it take in a trade? They need RH offense, which makes Jeffers a leading candidate. Holding onto a player who will most surely seek green pastures next year makes little sense; however, Cal Raleigh is one year(far) removed from an MVP year. Would the M's relegate him to a bench role? Guys like Lewis and Keaschall might be of interest but they are not sure bets to immediately bolster the M's moribund offense. Nor do we want to get rid of arguably our two best hitters now, Jeffers and Larnach, without killing our offense. Hancock would be a very welcome addition but does Zoll have the cajones to pull off a big trade? He's shown little aptitude yet, but one can only hope the Twins surprising season motivates him to rise to the occasion and find a way.

A few(not lots) of teams could sign Jeffers but the Yanks have the $ to outbid other suitors, particularly if they give up Warren and a top prospect. Jeffers would fit in perfectly to the Yanks long term goal of contending every year. Agree that Wallner, et. al. could not step in as an equal replacement for Bellinger, but the Twins have a good enough minor league system to sweeten the pot, e.g., Tait, Rojas, Quick, Hill, to get a deal done. I do, however, have some reservations about Warren's falloff and believe Hancock would be a better choice if at all possible.

These are the Yankees. They can afford a new contract for Jeffers! Warren + Rodriguez could be attainable if Twins added a top 10 prospect not named Jenkins to Jeffers. With Bellinger down they need OF help - an area we have some surplus(Wallner, Gonzales, Mendez?).

As Twins GPF stated, you are recommending trading 2 of the top 3 hitters(and maybe your 2 best w/Bux slow return) in a lineup that already has some very streaky hitters. Trading a player like Jeffers who is almost certainly lost after this season is a no-brainer. If Zoll fails to get this done with a nice return then he is not the GM who should be responsible for leading this club back to contention. A return like Hancock or a top 100 pitching prospect should be attainable, maybe with a #10-20 prospect added as a sweetener. Trading Larnach would be a fool's errand. I realize Jenkins is in the wings but his 2026 stats would indicate he needs more time in AAA. The other OF prospects are either too injury prone(E Rod) or have defensive limitations(Gonzales/Mendez) to count on them to replace Larnach any time soon. With a combo of Keuchel/Roden as corner OFs, loss of Larnach, in addition to Jeffers, would severely dampen any fan enthusiasm remaining, kill player morale, and, if possible, further lower any credibility in ownership.

An interesting thread, but you can throw it all away. Ryan scratched tonight for "arm soreness". His value just dropped. Not going to maximize his value now.

The Twins must first decide who they favor after this season - Lee or Lewis. Frankly, for a championship contender, neither one should be starters at vital offensive positions like 1B or 3B, but the Twins have no ready replacements for both so trading one seems more realistic. Lee has shown decent progress offensively this year so retaining him over Lewis, who still has shown little consistency over the past 3 years, seems a no-brainer. Moving Clemens to 1B and perhaps an addition like Arraez as a short term 2Bman(assuming Culpepper and Houston are the middle infield from 2028 forward) should improve the current below average infield for this year and next. So,Yes, let's give up on the Lewis experiment, get a decent minor league pitching prospect in return, and let another team take over the angst that comes with Lewis.

Agree my wish list is somewhat unreasonable, as obtaining all 3 of players mentioned would be an overpay, but there can be little doubt one of the trade pieces must be an established mid-rotation MLB pitcher who can step in immediately and be controllable for 3-4 years. As for the mid-lineup addition, no, I wouldn't expect an established cleanup hitter to be in the trade package, but some under 25yo who might be blocked now on a roster but with some demonstrated power potential is badly needed, particularly in the IF. I just don't think you can build a solid contender with guys like Lewis, Lee or Clemens as starters. And adding a top 100 pitching prospect is certainly doable for a #1 or 2 starter with one year + of control. We simply have a dearth of competent starters in our minor league system.

You can't really discuss "trading ryan" without an idea of who you should get in return. First, you don't trade Ryan if you have a better than average chance of contending for the playoffs this year. The Twins 4 game losing streak would seem to put that possibility to rest. After all, most of us believe this team has over-performed this year so a return to the expected is not surprising. With that said, then listening to offers for Ryan should be on Zoll's play list the next 12 days. But a trade for prospects is not the answer. A fair return would be at least one starter to replace Ryan(albeit not an equivalent but a #3 starter), a near-ready major-league-ready infielder who has a better than even chance of filling the huge hole in the #3/4 spot in the lineup in the next 1-2 years, and maybe a high minor league pitching prospect who can reach the majors by 2028. Is that expecting too much? Perhaps, but this is what the FO should be striving for if Ryan is dealt. A Jeffers trade, which is certainly more probable, should bring in a late-inning reliever and a solid pitching prospect. Such additions, should improve our chances to be true contenders in the next 1-2 years. Unfortunately, I, too, have great reservations on Zoll's ability to structure such transactions.

Another positive in bringing up Jenkins - it would make trading Larnach more palatable. I previously thought if the FO wanted to stay competitive, they could only afford to trade one of Larnach or Jeffers. Our offense has too many holes to trade both. Jeffers should be traded(unless Twins can resign him which at this point is a non-starter), but with Jenkins slotted in LF or RF, Jenkins and Roden could fill in well at the corners. Of course, trading makes sense only if the Twins obtained near major league prospects.

Jamie, again, thanx for the writeup! I have one question : on Keith Law's writeup at the Athletic on Twins' picks, except for Lackey, he was decidedly negative on the rest of the top 10 draftees. Care to comment?

Simple. Zoll took over Feb. 1st with the same knowledge everyone else had: the pen was a disaster. The Twins have made one actual trade in the interim - for Nance who was at the tail end of Toronto's pen. Everything else were waiver wire pickups. Is it any surprise our pen statistically is about the worst in baseball? So the fact is that he has hardly lifted a finger to improve a pen devastated in last year's deadline. At least Falvey had made some good trades(Bradley, Abel, Gray, Ryan). Blame ownership on the payroll, yes, but they did not tie Zoll's hands in the trade mart.

I think you nailed it on a key point: this surprising offense is bound to decelerate. You look at the presumed starters and wonder how guys like Clemens, Kreidler, Larnach can maintain their performance given their past history Add in the erratic performances of Lee and Lewis and one wonders who are going to be the run producers in this lineup, especially with the added high probability of Jeffers being traded. As you noted, the rotation is not the strength envisioned back in April. Depth is gone and big questions remain on Ober and Prielipp. If Ryan(assuming he is not traded) and Bradley can maintain their all star performances and Mathews figures out how to keep the ball in the ballpark this will not be a bad rotation, but again, some regression seems more likely. Coupled with a very shaky pen, where only Gomez and Morris seem dependable, overall pitching is not going to carry this team to the playoffs. And how will those two hold up in the heat of a pennant race? Yes, the Twins could remain in "contention" in September but regression to the mean seems more likely, especially with Detroit's strong rebound. If I had some faith in Zoll to succeed at the trade deadline or TP to put money where his mouth is and acquire some major league ready relievers, the outlook could be improved considerably, but realistically, history says otherwise.

If you read my post, I mention getting one reliever who can step in this year as a solid late inning arm better than 6 of our current relief staff and as a potential closer who could step in if Gomez falters - a very real possibility considering his past performance. And, yes, a second offensive addition who is close to ML ready with good potential to slide into the #3 or 4 spot as soon as next year. For trading Ryan, this would be a worthwhile trade both for now and in the future.

There is an unstated unknown here: Is Zoll capable of identifying trade returns who would catapult the Twins into "real contenders"? He is totally unproven, but his failure as GM to trade some obvious excess, e.g., LH OFs, DH ers, and quasi-prospects who have simply not lived up to their potential, for the badly needed decent pen arms that could have made a major difference in pre-AllStar play must raise a giant flag of concern about his abilities. If he holds on to Jeffers at the deadline, this must be considered a black mark. And if he does trade Jeffers and fails to land players who can actually improve the 2026 squad, again, it would raise serious questions about his chops. I won't even address the Ryan trade possibilities for now as that ball is still up in the air at present. But, as others on the board have said, if Ryan is traded it must yield at least two major-league-regulars who can step into the closer role and cleanup hitter, if not both this year, then by 2027.

Given the propensity of Twins to turn hot prospects into ML also-rans, color me sceptical of Marek's/KC's major league success. The even bigger Q : should the presence of either of these 2 affect the Twins #3 draft pick, where two of the three top-rated prospects are SS?

Disagree. In case of Jeffers, for example, Yanks are in desperate need of a C and very well might part with LaGrange who would slot in as the closer. Jeffers might be a two month rental but not to the Yanks who could easily afford signing him to a long term contract. As for a Larnach, Bell or Lewis transaction, I suggested sweetening the deal with one of our top OF prospects not named Jenkins. The chances of both Rodriguez and Gonzales landing a starting position in the OF in the next 1-2 years is minimal w/ Buxton and Jenkins ahead of them, so a trade of one of them is not going to be ruinous to future contention. Of course, this is all hypothetical but a creative GM should be able to land a couple of solid relievers at the trade deadline without impairing future progress.