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mike8791

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Everything posted by mike8791

  1. It's a sad commentary when this lackluster pen looks solid compared to the rotation. At least the FO has a valid excuse: why pay money for relievers when the rotation is so bad!
  2. Just can't get on "we need to sign an OF" bandwagon. Celestino seems ready as backup, at least based on his finish at AAA. Don't think this FO will trade Kepler because: 1.) they are too risk averse; 2.) his value has dropped considerably; and 3.) they have more valuable trade candidates who they can better afford to lose,e.g., Arraez, Jeffers or Garver, pitching prospects, middle IF prospects. There is no excuse for them not to acquire a strong #2 starter with this package. As for LF, they will likely look at combo of Larnach, Rooker(Ugh!!), or some low cost castoff. As others have noted, if they have $50MM to spend, they must go hard after Rodon, find an interim or better SS, and yes, fill some holes in the vBP with at least one potential stopper. Just not enough room in budget for a FA OF.
  3. Top Gunn: Trade Arraez, Larnach, Sabato, Cole Sands and Thorpe to the A's for Montas and Bassitt. There are many reasons why this trade will never happen, the first of which is in 5 years this FO has never shown the b***s to pull off a trade of this magnitude. They're only adept at trading MLers for prospects at the trade deadline and picking up mid-level starters who have flaws(Odo, Pineda, Maeda) for prospects. The second reason this will never happen is the slate of available starters is now greatly reduced, meaning a ton of teams will be bidding for the few available proven ML pitchers available in trade. The 5 player package you propose includes one utility player without a real position, a formerly top corner OF prospect who has little defensive ability and tailed off badly enough to be sent back to the minors, and 3 other marginal prospects who have little trade value(except to Twin fans). The Twins should go all in for the one FA pitcher, Rodon, who has shown top-of-the-rotation talent with the downside risk of being injury prone. That didn't stop the brass from signing Buxton to a 7 year contract. Why should it stop them from signing a player who would not cost them any trade capital at a reasonable 2-3 year contract, and at an AAV that would not be much higher than Story's? It makes so much sense that you might ask why The Wonder Boys didn't get it done by the lockout deadline? If Rodon were signed, the Twins would have plenty of trade capital to acquire one of the top available starters - Castillo, Gray, Montas, Bassitt, or Lopez, any of whom would slot in as a #2 arm on a contender's staff. A possible package including two of the following - Arraez, Kepler, Jeffers/Garvey and one or two of our top 10 pitching prospects would be very attractive to one of the A's, Marlins or Reds. These losses are palatable, given the strength of our minor league pitching staff, catcher, corner OF and middle infield positions. Resigning Pineda, signing a good fielding SS for a 1-2 year contract, and adding two significant relievers would round out a vastly improved roster in 2022. Falvey is on the hot seat. If he can't make the moves to give us a fighting chance for contention in 2022 then time for him to find a job he can handle. In any case, he has a long ways to go now with much less leeway than two months ago.
  4. Rodon is the only one left with clear ace potential and also someone who might sign a shorter term contract than, say s Stroman, because of injury concerns. We can see that this FO will never sign a FA pitcher for more than 1-2 years. Not sure what Boras is asking but as others go off the board and with a looming transaction deadline tonight, it would behoove the Wonder Boys to go all in now - before some of the bigger spending clubs who still have major gaps in their rotation decide to outbid the Twins. Bassitt would be a smart add if only Falvey would give up a couple of our top 20 prospects, including one top 10 pitching prospect. Miami looked like a better fit but now that they've added a catcher, that ship has probably sailed. And Sonny Gray would be a very nice pickup but reportedly the Reds are holding out for a rich package. One of the A's pitchers looks like the best bet as of now, but does anyone on TD think that this FO would give up top prospects needed? I'd bet on a Ryan redux. Pineda doesn't really move the needle, but is probably the most likely signing among the 3 candidates. If they can add him on a one year contract, it would be an OK move, considering Maeda should return in 2023. All in all, these 3 would definitely move the needle towards contention. Anything less, however, and we're looking at a best outcome of .500 ball in 2022. As others have noted the payroll hit would be very palatable and still leave room for a couple of pen pickups, a SS, and perhaps a fourth long-shot starter. The window is closing fast. Can Falvey rise to the challenge of nudging this team back into contention as early as 2022?
  5. Twins Ace - Gray signed with the Rangers. 4 years for $56 million. (I definitely missed a few signings that happened on Friday as well. Crazy how much action there was over the past 4 days.) Believe Top Gunn meant Sonny Gray w/Reds, not Jon. Sonny would be one of my favorite targets - like him a lot better than Jon and I believe he is owed $12MM for '22 and option for '23. If Twins could swing another deal with A's or Marlins for one of their starters that would make for a formidable top 3! Tony/Rod: I love watching Rodon but the failure of Chicago to offer raised concern, even if it is uninformed worry on my part. Yes, there is a red flag but Sox want to put Kopech into rotation, leaving Rodon as a luxury(in their view). Sox blew it last year when they DFA'd Rodon but no one bit so they had him back on the cheap. Rodon has had injury issues, including last year, but came back strong in last 2 outings in Sept. Moderate risk, high reward(I'd rather sign Rodon than Ray to be a long term ace). Let's see if FO can abandon that risk aversion to take this chance.
  6. The Twins need an ace if they are to be legitimate contenders in 2022. Ray would fit the bill nicely but now, with a Dec. 1st deadline looming, you can practically guarantee a bidding war develops. Does anyone on TD truly believe the Twins are capable of winning such a war? I'd give it <1% chance. But there's another ace-type hurler available - Carlos Rodon. He outpitched Ray last year when healthy. Yes, health concerns have to be factored in, but the upside of this issue is that his market value will be far less than Ray or even Stroman. Perhaps a 3 year/$60MM deal could get it done. The team has the budget to get this done with perhaps $20MM leftover to fill some other holes in FA(paying Bux only $10MM in 2022 provides some added room in the budget). The rest of this offseason is the most critical test for Falvey and co. Can they restore this team to contention in 2022? Signing Rodon comes with risk but to move the needle, this is exactly the type of move that any competent management should be willing to take. Wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins swoop in for once, rather than wait for the dust to settle before making their move?
  7. Well T-giving has passed and Xmas has come early.. Today, I just received a copy of Derek Falvey's business planner from a disgruntled FO employee wishing to make public DF's plans starting in August 2021 thru opening day 2022. For brevity sake I have removed all the confusing algorithms, statistics, and doodlings that comprise most of these pages, but the words are his! Hope you enjoy this rare insight into the brain of Derek Falvey!! Aug. 2021 1. Make up list of all preseason pitching Minor League FAs and add to roster as spaces open up. Need to see who looks promising for 2022 pen. Just can't understand why none of my prized draft pitchers from the past 5 years haven't yet made a contribution to our big league bullpen? Maybe trading Pressley was a little premature. 2. Confer with Rocco and staff about feasibility of reinstituting pregame practice now that season is down the tubes. Make sure this act does not lower team morale, especially the young players. 3. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Sept. 2021 1. Tell Rocco to keep Barnes in the rotation. He looks like a late bloomer. 2. Looks like we've found our bullpen closer for next year. Alcala pitching much better now that pressure is off. 2.. Glad Rocco brought back Refsnyder. Love to see these bargain basement veterans succeed at big league level! 4. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Oct. 2021 1. Season finally over! No more worries about presiding over team's record-breaking playoff loss streak. 2. Excited about having the #8 first round draft choice next year. Should be some excellent power hitters to supplement our DH/corner OF depth in the first round. Of if we get lucky, might be able to find an under-the-radar HS SS we can develop into a utility player. Be still my heart!! 3, Filled two huge offseason needs; Hitting Instructor and Bench Coach. Whoopee!! Saved a ton of money hiring Mary from Dodger Org. Who cares if he never coached higher than Class A.? He is a statistical whiz and is raw enough to listen to FO suggestions. Veteran bat coaches are a dime a dozen, but it takes a sharp mind like mine to ferret out the unpolished gems. And grabbing Tingler from the Pods is a real coup. He'll be a great asset in restoring team morale by providing strong leadership that Rocco lacks. His success managing Pods convinced me he would be the best mangerial candidate available if Rocco continues to fail on fundamental instruction. 4. Reminder: contact BB's agent to renew contract talks. Nov. 2021 1. Whew, finally got the Cave contract wrapped up. Worried we might not have capable CF when BB down. And JP will be thrilled we saved $200K on the budget. Maybe I'll get a bonus! 2. Working 24/7 to decide on who to add to 40 man roster. Hate to give up on anyone now, as team played so much better after trade deadline. I was particularly worried about losing Enlow as it would make me look bad, given fact he was highest paid 3rd round pick. I know talent when I see it! Hard to lose gamers like the Turtle, Gant, Smeltzer, Garlick. You just can't have enough minor league depth in case of injuries. 3. Exciting to see our fast-rising prospects in the AZ Fall League. Wallner looks like he's in the hunt for our DH next year and our pitching prospects look like valuable additions to the pen in 3-4 years. 4. Nov. 15th : Finally vacation time. Let the contenders overspend on starting pitchers. We're waiting for the real bargains to filter down. Thad will keep things at a slow simmer during the GM meetings. Besides, we haven't yet developed our strategy yet for the offseason(hard to do when JP hasn't issued his budget for 2022). 5. Reminder: must check on long distance service from Mongolia so I can answer any callbacks from BB's agent. 6. Damn! Had to cancel rest of vacation as Thad needed my input on whether to tender BB by the new Nov. 30th deadline. Tough call here, given how hard it's been to schedule a meeting with his agent, but JP put his foot down and said for PR purposes we had to offer BB arbitration. We were sort of surprised as Jim had earlier said he was reluctant to increase the budget while the virus was still prevelant. Dec. 2021 1. Glad to see the CBA deadline put a halt to any trades or FA signings. Frankly, just too much to do yet to determine our offseason plans. Still big divide in the FO whether to attempt to try to contend in 2022 or rebuild completely. As usual, no direction from ownership, but of course that's what I love about this job. Future plans are all in my hands and, being the smartest guy in the room, I can't wait to finalize my new 5 year rebuild plan. Just have to keep it on the QT. We have season ticket sales to push! 2. Returning to Mongolia as not much more can happen without new CBA. Gave the FO the rest of the month off as a reward for a successful 2021. Glad we got the BB 2022 contract settled. Jan. 2022 1. The New Year has started with a bang! The phone is ringing off the hook now that player transactions have recommenced. Can't believe how these foolish GM's anxious to trade starters think they can grab any of our prized Top 20 prospects. I learned from TR that you must always stay in a rebuilding mode, so why would I give up any of our prize draft choices, even though we're a bit short of experienced starters. We need depth at all positions in the minors and majors if we are ever going to be successful with our rebuild. Judging from my success in developing a home-grown bullpen from draft choices, why should we change course now. 2. Had a surprise call from Scott on Carlos Rodon. Said he'd accept a short term 1-2 year contract at $20 MM/yr. The Fool! Just think of the risk with this guy. Scott should know by now that we never take risks! Just imagine if it went south? My adoring public would find I have no clothes. Feb. 2022 1. Finally, my favorite month of the year! Time to show everyone how smart I really am. Signed Michael Wacha to be our staff ace and Rich Hill and Pineda to be our #2 & 3 starters, while resigning Colome(just can't believe no one picked this guy up) to close games. And hit the trifecta when we resigned Simmons fo half his 2021 salary. All in all a very successful offseason. Can't wait for ST to start! Mar. 2022 1. So nice to be back at Lee Stadium! First game was today. Funny no fans showed up. Hmmm! Such pessimists these fans are!!
  8. Seth, am usually opposed to bringing back ex-Twins previously released, especially one also just released by Detroit, but if he has still truly an above average fielding SS, his power potential alone would make him a clear choice over Simmons. We're not going to spend the dollars necessary to sign one of the big name FAs, so why not a flyer on this guy? Don't like his high K rate, but from the list of other available middlin' SSs, this would seem to be a good low risk candidate at a very moderate cost. I like the idea of jettisoning Cave and see Gordon and Goodrum as backups in both the IF and SS if and when Lewis can take over SS position permanently. Unfortunately, I don't see the Wonder Boys going for an "old" Twin; just not in their DNA.
  9. As a fierce critic of this FO, I applaud your attempts here to lower the rhetoric. Totally agree that the die is not cast yet! We really don't know how this will all turn out so harsh criticism based on one sportswriter's article is probably unwarranted at this time. What really frosts me is Falvey's statement saying they are still trying to sort things out., coupled with earlier pronouncements by FO and ownership how they intend to retool enough to be legit contenders in 2022. If they're not lying to the fanbase, they're, at the very least, being disingenious. If they are going to succeed in their stated goal of a quick return to contention - a totally realistic objective with a strong core, multiple quality FAs and some solid trade possibilities - they simply have to strike quickly to corral the players needed to jumpstart things in 2022 , sort of like the Angels, Tigers, Stros and Dodgers have already done. But as others have forcefully stated the Buxton decision must precede any major player moves. Why hasn't this decision been made yet! Their indecision is just baffling. No, its not too late to resolve the Buxton situation and still agressively pursue pieces who will be solid contributors in 2022. But time is running out and I, for one, who shudders at the idea of a rebuild again, especially in the hands of a FO who has failed to produce even one solid contributor to the pen in 5+ years of stewardship, have lost confidence in their ability to turn this ship around. So two wishes: 1.) stop the mealy mouth excuses and 2.) take the necessary risks to either get us back to contention or admit to the fans a rebuild is in order and lay out a plan for such.
  10. Cody, this is the essential question now. Resign Bux to a long term extension or not. The whole offseason depends on resolution of this question. If we fans can understand this, you can be sure management understands this, too, which is why significant FA signings/ trade speculation, etc. are just hollow hopes. While it is still too soon to predict which direction this FO intends to go, there was one revealing statement by Falvey in the Rosenthal article on resigning Buxton that is most illuminating: "At this stage of the offseason, we’re still just navigating our strategy and planning and trying to understand what’s available to us and what the market looks like on all periods." Now we all know this guy is a great spin doctor, but the fact he was quoted just this week that they were still navigating strategy is pretty shocking. Wouldn't a responsible organization have decided prior to opening of the FA signing period that either they had to sign Buxton as a base for retooling the roster in order to return to contention in 2022 or not signing him resulting in a complete rebuild? There is no logical middle ground here. The fact they haven't yet moved on Buxton indicates they will be hamstrung in making significant trades or signings until the Buxton issue is settled, resulting in the usual dumpster dive after all the dust has settled this offseason. I think most of us at TD are stunned by this lack of resolve, but we shouldn't be. The history of this org. points to acceptance of mediocrity by ownership satisfied with sporadic contention, but clueless on taking the next step. Falvey seems the perfect hire for perpetuating JP's reluctance to take the necessary risks to win. So those of us left in the Twins fandom can look forward to another rebuild led by the Wonder Boys or some clone thereof. As a 60 + year fan of the franchise, I am now more pessimistic than ever in both the short and long term prospects for this franchise so long as the Pohlad family is in charge.
  11. Here's why I could be ok with the deal: 1. Martin and Richardson provide at least league average production in the next 1-2 years. 2. Twins use money saved on Berrios to sign a #2 starter(or #1 ) in FA. Any one of Stroman, Ray, Rodon or Gausman would be great. 3. FO pulls off a significant trade to land a young starter able to replace JB's production in next couple years. 4. FO resigns Buxton. Or, alternatively, Twins are in a complete rebuild mode and trade off current assets. I never believed that Berrios was the type of shutdown hurler in a first playoff game match, so his loss was not a big deal IF FO able to replace him with someone better - one who wouldn't maddeningly throw a bad pitch at a very inopportune time. But color me a huge sceptic that FO is capable of doing just that. Early offseason news shows a continuation of this FO's risk-averse MO.
  12. Brock, nice article! The problem with this FO from day one is they have always thought themselves the smartest guys in the room. They don't make risky trades, they wait for FAs to fall to them at end of offseason, and yes, they have a plan they stick to regardless of how the team plays on the field. To put it simply, they are full of themselves and their brilliance. I have called it hubris, pure and simple. This may or may not include a preference for "their" players, but one thing is clear - they are narrow minded, egotistical and afraid to take risks for fear of making a mistake. With that said, the real culprit here is Jim Pohlad. He naively bought into their hype in hiring them and prefers to fade into the background. We all agree that losing Buxton would be a body blow to near term return to contention. All it would take to reverse this tack would be for JP to call mgt. and tell them to sign this guy, period! But Pohlad has never shown any leadership so why should we expect this now at this all-critical juncture of the offseason? The only way this can change is for new ownership, as JP has always shown his preference for clones who have identical "banker's mentality". Here in Chicago, real fans, sportswriters, and sites like TD would take to the media and the streets. We don't because owners like Reinsdorf are able to maintain fan allegiance by going all in when the time is right Someone asked what can a fan do to protest this lack of commitment by ownership? How about organizing a protest in front of Twins HQ? Or better yet, organize a mass mailing by season ticketholders pledging to cancel their ticket if Buxton allowed to walk. When Carl came to Chicago to an owners meeting shortly after he announced intentions to contract the team, I waited in front of the hotel since 7AM for him to arrive with signs lambasting him for this threatened action. The startled look on his face was worth every waiting moment. So the message is, forget Minnesota Nice and show your anger. Get ownership out of their comfort zone! It might not produce results, but at least you will have the satisfaction of active protest.
  13. Nice summary, Ted! While many of us here are clamoring for a top-of-the-rotation FA signing, the whole history of this organization unfortunately points to disappointment on this score. The Twins have historically shied away from long term signings(I believe 4 years is as far as they've gone). The Jays recent signing of Berrios to a fair $18.5MM/year contract is a strong example of this. I don't think many of us thought he would sign for such a reasonable amount and wonder why the Twins couldn't have at least matched that. The reason is simple - Berrios wanted long term security and Toronto gave him 7 years. E. Rod's signing by the Tigers and Thor's s deal with the Angels adds further evidence that this org. just will not take that kind of risk, no matter how desperate our need is for starting pitching. As far as FA signings go, does anyone expect the FO to land one of the top dogs in a very good FA class? Likelihood is the pattern of waiting around until Jan/Feb until bargain basement FAs are identified will continue again this year. So trading for young, controlled pitching is more likely. And to get a valuable piece, the Twins will have to give up something of value. Who they give up is a big question. As you note, the Twins have some depth in the C, middle IF, and corner OF positions. Arraez is the easiest pick to offer, but doubt he would be a centerpiece for a solid starter. However, such a package including Arraez and a couple of top 20 prospects might get one of the A's starters or perhaps even Gallen. Garver also has value, but my bet is that young, rebuilding teams like Miami would much rather have Jeffers than the older Garver( and that would be a good thing, especially if contending next year is really the goal). It does not take a genius to see the matchup with Miami if only the Wonder Boys were unafraid to take the risk and add some top prospect or two to sweeten the pot. Kepler would be the last regular I'd trade, mainly because there is already a big question mark in LF, so unless the FO had the budget and will to sign a major league hitter like Canha or even Marte, they just couldn't afford to weaken the OF any further, even assuming they resigned Buxton. Kirillof is destined for 1B , Larnach is still a major unknown, and Celestino/Martin/Lewis are a ways away. All this speculation is out the window if Buxton is traded. At that point it would be obvious that the FO lied to fans about their contending in 2022. Instead, expect a big selloff would be their path, with the inevitable 4-5 year wait to return to relevance. The one good thing about such a rebuilding path is that Falvine would not be around to mishandle it.
  14. Nice article Nick! With all the sceptics of the FO on TD(myself included), your pointing to some of their successes is important for all of us to remember. Their acquisitions of Odo, Pineda and Maeda were smart ones(the others perhaps less so). Their salary dump trades, especially this year, hold promise, especially gaining Ryan and Martin, although tpo early to tell how these will work at ML level. Even the Pressley trade, which I still think was a mistake at the time, might work out with Alcala and Celestino developing nicely. At least this FO hasn't been guilty of the awful trades we saw in the Smith regime. But(there's always a but), we are at a different juncture now after this season's disaster. If we are going to rebound to contention in 2022 the FO must acquire at least two top-of-the-rotation arms, for starters. They cannot afford to sit around the edge of the pool and watch others nab the top FAs/trade candidates, while waiting for bargains to develop. Detroit recognizes the importance of going big by their signing of E. Rod today. Does this Fo have the budget and the cajones to strike quickly or will we wait for Jan/Feb to grab the "bargains"? And will this FO be willing to trade some of our top prospects and some of our excess major leaguers to corral a top young starter? Straddling the fence is not an option. They need to roll the dice and go big or tear it down and rebuild. I hope they live up to their promise to build a contender this offseason, but their 5 years at the helm do not give me cause for optimism, I'm afraid.
  15. Mills, not sure where your final budget lies, but quick glance at your roster shows much imagination and realism. Particularly like your addition of Canha to replace Kepler in Rf, thereby enhancing trade package for Lopez. Don't think he's ready to assume ace status, but he would be a prime catch if Marlins willing to trade him. He would be a more movable piece than Rogers or Alcantara, either of whom would be my first choice. While Stroman or Rodon would be a better bet for a #1 Starter they admittedly will be a much harder get than Rodriguez. Can't favor Wacha - he had a terrible year. Rather spend a little more for someone like Pineda or Hill to give rotation better depth. The lineup looks good, but only if Kirillof, Bux, and JD remain healthy most of the season. It should be an above average offense, but not top tier unless everything broke favorably. The bullpen would be helped by Knebel as stopper, but I'd pass on Ottavino and go for Tepera or Yates. Barring injuries to Rogers or Duffey and with continued improvement from Alcala this could be a much improved pen compared to the trash heap of 2021. All in all, a very good roster! Let's hope the FO hires you as trade consultant!
  16. Welcome to TD. Appreciate all the effort you've put into this plan! My reservation is : do you really believe this restructuring would result in a contending team? Let's start with the rotation. E. Rod would be a nice addition but slots in as a #2, Pineda would be #3, so no real upgrade there, Dobnak is traded, so the big hole is in the #1 spot. Don't you think you need a real #1 starter for contention? Your rotation seems quite shaky, unless some of the rooks step up more quickly than anticipated. The offense takes a sizable hit by losing Donaldson. This was a very average offense last year and w/o Cruz and Donaldson, it seems like a step back. Segura seems to be a nice upgrade offensively, but his defense has to be questioned, given fact that Phils signed Gregorius as FA SS. Plus, you are hoping for increased production from guys like Larnach and Miranda, To me, this looks like a .500 team, at best. My two cents - better to use some of our excess position players like Jeffers, Arraez, maybe Larnach or Rooker, plus a couple of top minor league prospects to trade for one or two solid starters to buttress the rotation. Oh, and no salary dump of Donaldson. If Pohlad really wants to contend in 2022 he will need to boost the budget to $140-150MM range.
  17. Gray's history suggest a ceiling as a #3 starter. Pineda would fit that slot as well, has better stats and would likely sign a 1-2 year contract. Gray wouldn't move the needle much. Twins still need two top-of-rotation guys. Save their bullets for those two, not on Gray.
  18. Now that QO list is complete, it is notable that 3 very good pitchers were not on it: Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony DeSclafani( and Stroman was ineligible for QO). Consideration of relinquishing their #3 draft pick might play a role in FO decisions on SP selection. While Stroman might have been the #1 choice in the TD universe, he certainly would be highest price, probably over $25MM/yr for minimum of 5-6 years. Any one of the other 3 pitchers might be a better choice, with Rodon at the top of my list. He returned in September throwing 99MPH, though SSS. While higher risk perhaps, he is only one who has ace potential.
  19. As others have noted, kudos to your well thought out proposal. You are a welcome addition to TD! Living in Chicago, I have particular appreciation for Rodon. He was arguably the best starter in the AL until his injury. Yes, he is higher risk because of his injury history, but he looked his old self in his late September return and would be a true #1 candidate for years to come. Sox have said they want to promote Kopech to the rotation, which might lessen their desire to resign Rodon. The Twins should go hard after this guy. He is a stud. Less enthusiastic about Rodriguez as #2 and Kepler trade. If Rooker and Larnach are starting corner OFs, our defense suffers, as does our lineup. Rooker is Sano-lite and Larnach might need a full year in the minors. So why trade Kepler for top prospects when the chances for landing one young starter from either Miami or Oakland(to name two) with a package of Arraez, Jeffers, and one or two of our top 10-20 prospects would improve the 2022 immeasurably more than add to our burgeoning prospect list? Lastly, your pen is too shaky for my taste. Hembree, Jax and Dobnak are filler material. We need help at the top. Tepera would be a nice add but he has never shown shut-down closer stuff here in Chicago. Must add an arm like Knebel, Graveman, Iglesias to offset continued uncertainty with Rogers, Duffey and Alcala. Bottom line, no way the Twins can have a $130MM ceiling and be realistic contenders without a lot of luck - from injuries to very rapid prospect advances to markedly improved coaching. Money won't completely mitigate such risks, but would almost certainly help to fill the inevitable holes inherent in a 162 game season.
  20. You're headed in the right direction Doc, particularly with push to sign a potential #1 pitcher. Not quite sure Stroman is that ace, but it will certainly take $20-25MM/yr to nab him. There are just too many teams chasing too few top-of-the-rotation arms. I think ceiling for Rodon or Ray is higher and since risk is higher, especially for the former, you might save a bit and get a higher upside with one of these two. Not nearly as high on Gray as a #2; he seems more like Pineda. As Tony and Rodney said, the trade route to acquire a #2 starter looks much more promising. We have enough excess players like Jeffers/Garver, Arraez, Larnach, plus top pitching prospects to land one of the Marlin or A's starters if Falvey can shed his risk-averse nature. This way we should land a younger, cost-controlled arm who could help immediately. And while Pineda is not a bad choice as a #3, Twins should seriously attempt a short term signing with higher ceiling/higher risk like Thor to really give the team some heft in the playoffs. And you very well illustrate need to push budget to $140-150MM range for this team to have any real chance of a strong rebound as early as 2022. Buxton signing is a must, as is two strong arms for the pen. Choose 2 from among Knebel, Graveman, Tepera, Iglesias, or Yates. Then hope for a couple of rebounds(Kepler, Sano), restored health(Kirillof, Buxton, Rogers) and a big improvement in coaching/management to reduce horrendous lack of fundamentals. Lots of ifs, but certainly plausible if pitching help arrives.
  21. MK, agree with you that Rodon should be top FA Twins should pursue. He was lights out last year - the best pitcher on a fine Sox staff. Fact he was injured late should dampen his value somewhat, so he could be available for as low as $100MM/5 years. Note in his return to the rotation in Sept. he demonstrated similar stuff to earlier in year. With the Sox grooming Kopech for the rotation, they might be hesitant to resign Rodon. If so, Twins should pounce(unless they expand their budget to afford Ray/Stroman). Also like fact you are returning lineup mainly intact, led by Buxton resigning. Don't think you'll get Taylor for 2/$24MM but he would be a nice fill-in for a couple years. Rooker a big no at DH; he should be released. Better bet at DH would be Sano with Kirillof at 1B. Rather keep Kepler unless his inclusion in a package needed to acquire a young, controllable starter with high upside. Biggest problem I see is your BP. It needs a couple better late-inning relievers, one as a closer. Puk is aptly named, unfortunately. Why not 2 of Knebel, Tepera, Yates instead? My changes might lift payroll to $140MM but can't see how a lower number can lead to rapid return to contention.
  22. If Cobb is best this FO can come up with, then the one positive should be their quick exit from the TC. a year from now. This team needs 2 top guys plus a Pineda-type(who I would prefer over Cobb in 3 spot). I have little faith in this org's ability to swing for the fences and a Cobb addition would unfortunately confirm my scepticism. With promises of a return to contention in 2022 and at least $50-60MM to spend, the FO/Pohlad have no excuses this time around, especially with the high quality of FA starters and some enticing trade candidates.
  23. Nick, thanks for this very controversial proposal, but it sounds more like a rebuild, given the fact you have lost 3 of our top 4 offensive players with no immediate return. Why with all our supposed good prospects now do we add more? Wouldn't it be better to trade some prospects in a package for at least one young emerging starter rather than two middle rotation guys like E Rod and Kluber? Like addition of Iglesias but would rather keep Rogers and instead add two relievers from the group of Knebel, Tepera or maybe Yates. That is a major boost to a very middlin' pen. Baez addition would bring a spark, to the SS position, but as others have said, he is now an all or nothing hitter, probably more like Sano. Why not just keep Sano.? Your lineup overall is much weaker than present with 4 potential question marks: Jeffers, Kepler, Larnach and Miranda. Best part of your proposal is going big for Ray. We need an ace to be a factor in the playoffs, no matter what the cost. And bringing in a strong #2 starter via trade and a solid #3 guy(perhaps Thor or even Pineda) would greatly improve this team's chances for contention in 2022, assuming we do not lose 3 of our top 4 hitters. Sure I'd like to add a stud SS but without adding to your $130MM budget ceiling don't see how that's possible given our glaring holes in the rotation. If Pohlad is honest about a quick return to contention, he better be open to raising that "ceiling" so many on TD are fixating on. And I have to join the chorus, adding a big NO on trading our one true star, Buxton. This is not a contending team w/o him.
  24. The reality is that none of us know his trade value, incl. ML Trade values, but their current rating for Arraez is 33. Adding Jeffers @ 20 and someone like Canterino(10) you have a "trade" for Lopez who currently has a 65 value. I would think that would be an enticing package for the Fish. This trade makes sense for Twins who have Garver as #1 catcher, Arraez without a clear position and Canterino a very promising but totally unproven prospect. Lopez does not have a long track record but by all reports, has the makings of a strong #2 starter who is controlled for several years. This is exactly the kind of trade the Twins Brain Trust should be all over!
  25. Terry, thanks for reemphasizing need for signing 3 pitchers who can really move the needle for this team. You've shown how a $130MM budget is inadequate for acquiring such talent. $140MM is a floor for contention in 2022. As to your selections, Ray would be a clear ace on this team, but likely to get a QO. With a #8 first round draft pick, just can't see FO pulling the trigger. Ditto with Rodon and probably Gausman. Stroman looks like best bet but it would take out-bidding some big market teams to land him. Alcantara would be a fine addition but Twins could not afford to give up 3 starting offensive players. They must be prepared to give up Garver or Jeffers(I would think the fish would be more interested in the younger Jeffers) and either Arraez(better) or Kepler plus one of our top pitching prospects. Too many questions in the OF(even if Bux resigned) to trade Kepler, Celestino better as reserve OF, not a starter. Lopez might be more attainable. And finally, Pineda would be a solid #3, at least for a year, but would prefer a trade for someone like Gallen or Manaea with higher upside. Thor would be a great fallback signing, but again, question of QO.
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