mike8791

This game illustrates the biggest weakness of the team that has been apparent since opening day: there is no one on this current roster that comes close to resembling a cleanup or #3 hitter. Yes, Buxton and Wallner did not play, but neither of them resembles a true middle-of-the-lineup bat. Wallner is a home run or nothing batter and Bux, the best power hitter in the lineup, is far too streaky(and far too injury prone) to be a consistent #4. He probably slots best as a #2 hitter - not cleanup. Today we used Keaschal and Lewis as #3/4 and the results were predictable. Keaschal, though far from being established, has the makings of a good leadoff man with a combination of OBP and speed. Why isn't he slotted there, Rocko? Lewis is no longer the power threat hoped for. He belongs in one of the #7/8/9 slots and perhaps not even there. He is a huge disappointment! Lee, while showing some improvement offensively, also belongs in the bottom 3 of the order, until Culpepper can be brought up.. Jeffers has come on strongly recently and based on his track record, should probably be in the #5/6 position. Offense is still this teams achilles heel. The trade deadline did absolutely nothing to correct this glaring weakness. Instead, it just turned the pen into another glaring weakness. So what's the solution here? I can see only one: new ownership willing to spend money on at least one or two 30HR/100rbi potential 1B/ DH players, sign a guy like Jeffers to a long term contract, and hope that guys like Jenkins, Gonzales, Rodriguez, and/or Culpepper turn into genuine middle of the order bats. And as part of this new ownership - get rid of Falvey for his failure to develop offensive players and Rocko for his inexplicable lineup constructions. The alternative to this overhaul is more years of failure and very limited playoff chances.

As a long-time Senator/Twins fan, I have experienced some great highs and many more lows. It's been a rocky ride! Last Thursday's selloff was a shock, no doubt. There were some inexplicable moves that cannot be explained rationally: Varland, Stewart, Jax - to name the most egregious. I do not add Correa to that list because that was a trade that needed to be done. My take(and hope) is that salary dump will grease the skids for a badly needed ownership change. We can all agree the Pohlad's have proven totally inept in their stewardship. Their removal is critical to a successful rebuild. If a sale does happen, then I am all for the selloff. This team was treading water and a shakeup was badly needed. While some of the transactions were head-scratchers, overall the Twins seem to have greatly bolstered catching and the rotation. With some excellent home-grown talent approaching the majors, I am more optimistic about the future of this franchise now than before. But that optimism is more dependent on an imminent sale rather than the outcome of the trades.

Nick, I've been eagerly awaiting your rx to the big selloff, but I must say I'm a bit disappointed. Was it necessary to blast Falvey for his evasiveness in responding to reporters? Aren't the answers pretty obvious: 1. The "core" of the team was just not good enough, hence, time to rebuild. Sure we are all upset about the dismantling of the bullpen, but that pen didn't help our playoff chances this year, did they? It was time to face the facts - this team's contention window had closed. You might quibble exactly who went and who was added, but the overall plan was clear: the current roster was not going anywhere. 2. Ownership wanted to cut payroll, most likely to facilitate the sale of the team. The best way to do this was a salary dump of Correa. He proved to be an albatross this year and in a rebuild mode, had to be "traded" even if it was for a bag of balls. Don't you think dropping $70MM of future salary increases the chances for a sale? Isn't that a good thing? I, for one, am happy that the FO finally saw reality and took a major step to rebuilding. We have a small core of quality players remaining, a strong farm system, made stronger by some intriguing prospects obtained in the trades. Yes, it's a setback in the near term but it lays the path for a return to contention within the next 2 years - assuming an agressive new ownership, willing to invest in some FAs who can supplement what we have now. This is the goal - get rid of the Pohlads, Falvey, and Rocco and replace with an owner who wants to win and goes after better talent at the GM, Mgr and coaching levels. In the end, does it really matter whether Falvey was honest with the fans? Actions speak louder than words. He did what has been glaringly obvious for some time now. That's what matters.

Here's one long time suffering Twins fan who gives a big thumbs up for Falvey(something I rarely have done). Here's why: 1. The Twins were toast this year. With the team for sale, with the big 3 reduced to one, with the injury to Lopez(last year Ryan's injury cost them a playoff berth), and failure of secondary starters like Larnach, Wallner, Julian, et.al. to step up, the Twins are a model of mediocrity. And their record shows that. Hence, the massive selloff! 2. Giving up on Correa accomplished several things: 1.) made a sale much more likely; 2.) opened up the SS position for younger guys like Lee. Culpepper to sink or swim; and 3) leads to a badly needed rebuild instead of retooling a club that has been in a state of decline. 3. Trading Duran for two high prospects bolsters two positions of weakness - SP and C. Sure, no guarantees but even if one of the former Phils becomes a regular, this is a big win going forward. 4. Improving our prospect list by trading Bader, (presumably Coulombe) and Paddack is positive in that it increases the odds that the ML lineup will be bolstered in years to come. It's hard to say that about the Stewart trade but if the Twins can help Outman regain his rookie form, again, a big win. Falvey could have sat on his hands this July, but he made some bold moves that give me more hope for a return to contention. The likelihood is he won't be around for long, but no one can accuse him of being risk adverse. I, for one, feel more hope for the future than I did several days ago. That's a good thing, in my estimation!

Nick, nice article as far as it goes, but why not an assessment of what are the top needs the Twins should try to fill in order to compete in the next 2 years? We all agree they have a number of desirable trade candidates so this trade deadline should be a great time to act. Pretty obvious biggest needs are a !B/DH with 30HR/100rbi potential and a second string catcher with strong upside potential. With a strong farm system, the Dodgers appear to be an ideal trade partner. Two of their top prospects, DePaula and Rushing, would be a nice package, but difficult to attain. While I would rather see Jax traded, I think Duran would be needed as a centerpiece, with guys like Bader or Castro, and perhaps Vazquez, Lee and/or Larnach needed to sweeten the package. I would love to expand the package by giving up Paddack for Dustin May, By packaging our top trade prospects, not including Ryan, we can conceivably add two players who could be expected to contribute to the starting lineup in 2026. If LA is not willing to give up such talent, then Philly, Seattle, Yanks or possibly the Astros would be worth some serious discussion. I have little faith in Falvey(particularly after last year's deadline dud) but at this point, with a failed 7 year regime staring him in the face and a disinterested ownership, perhaps he'll grow a set and actually pull off a much needed bold move to help right the floundering ship. Too late for this year but us diehards need some reason to believe in the years to come.

Don't think Gaspar would make much difference on Twins offensive futility. After all, he has never succeeded at ML level. More interested in what this current roster says about this FO's lack of development over 7 years. The fact they have guys of the 26 man roster like Clemens, Keirsey and Bride attests to their abject failure to develop a farm system that can produce at least average ML offense. Looking back over the Falvey regime, how many Twins all stars have emerged from their drafts/development? Lewis, a #1 draft choice, has never made it. You might blame injuries, but his past year in the majors does not bode well for any future selections. Brooks Lee is, at best, likely an average offensive force in middle infield, way below at 3B. Jenkins and Rodriguez are highly touted but injuries have thwarted any meteoric rise(what else is new). And while Keaschall looked good in a very small appearance, he is hardly the cleanup hitter this lineup so desperately needs. Overall, I give Falvey a D grade for providing offense. And looking at his highly touted pitching pipeline, by far, his top two starters, Ryan and Lopez, were trade pickups. No other home-grown product approaches any all star levels. Ober is too erratic and Festa and Matthews are still unproven, albeit promising. He has done better on the bullpen side, with Jax, Varland and Sands,but can we say we have developed a shutdown closer who we can count on thruout the season. Duran has likely passed his peak. Who's next? Why hasn't managment tried inserting someone else in the closer spot? Let's give Falvey a C+grade on pitching development. Summarizing, many of us on TD have consistently overrated our minor league prospects. The continuing presence of the little 3 on a supposedly playoff contender is enough of an indictment on the FO's failure to lift this team to a realistic contender level. Yes, ownership hasn't helped but neither has this FO.

Always enjoy these reviews, Nick. Thank you! While there wasn't much to stoke our enthusiasm for the Twins this past week(they still look like a .500 ballclub), there were a few things to enthuse over(other than the performance of Lee and Castro): -very fine pitched games by SWR(yesterday) and Festa on Wednesday. Is it too much to ask for them to continue to step up? Based on past performances, I tend to be cautiously optimistic. This will not replace Lopez, but could ameliorate declines by Ober and Paddack. Assuming Mathews can return within a few weeks the Twins could manage to stay afloat in the WC race. -While the offense continues to disappoint, Larnach, Jeffers, and Wallner should start hitting again, even if not all simultaneously. With Buxton leading the way, followed by Castro and Lee, the offense could conceivably rebound to at least the major league average. And if Correa and Lewis start to click, we might even see an offense closer to 2024 midseason. They badly need a consistent cleanup hitter but that possibility is zero until(hopefully) new ownership. -And finally, Rocco has to change Duran's role to less stressful situations. He has simply cost the Twins too many games this year, notwithstanding his May performance. Give Jax, Varland or Stewart shots. The Twins have little maneuvering room with their subpar offense. Shake it up Rocco! Your job may well depend on it. So not all doom and gloom, but they better start winning series against >.500 ballclubs or it will be another quiet October.

Agree that Castellanos has to be cut. He's just not ready, especially on a club that is supposed to be a strong competitor for Division. Why not replace him with two potential starters, like Mathews or Morris, both of whom have shown much better ability than this guy? After all, it's not unheard of in Twins' lore to start a potential starter in the pen. Remember Santana?

Cody, do you even look at ST games? 50-50 chance this guy is on a downhill slide. Stats matter, but results matter more in the real world!

In general agreement with the rotation as strength of the team! Lopez, Ober and Ryan are solid. SWR has looked good this spring. The hope is that he has more stamina to avoid another late season meltdown. Paddack is big question mark, but ok to begin the season as #5 in the rotation. My concerns are the following: 1. As you noted, a 4+ ERA for Lopez is not a sign of a #1 starter. And his spring training results are worrisome with an 8.0 ERA to date. What';s behind this? Is he experimenting with a new pitch or is there something more serious here? Why no mention of this in article? 2. I question the depth of the rotation. We saw what Ryan's injury did to the team's performance late in the season. Who will step up if one of the big 3(or 4) is injured? Festa has been very disappointing this spring. Mathews has been much better but his falloff last season is concerning. There is no one else after Mathews who could step into a major league rotation as of now. Looks to me like the success of the rotation has some ? marks. Twins have some surplus in IF(less now w/Lewis injury) and rotation(assuming guys like Feta, Morris, maybe Lewis excel at St. Paul). Cease would be a quantum jump in quality. Perhaps with a sale on the horizon by Aug. 1st, the Twins will be able to make such an acquisition w/new owners. One can always hope!

Absolutely right on! This jump in payroll can only be attributed to an impending sale. No way the Pohlads would have agreed to adding extra payroll w/o some pretty solid belief that a sale was in the near future. I, for one, am excited for the first time in years on future of the franchise. My optimism will only increase once new managment clears house, starting w/Falvey.

Nick, why such a great emphasis on WAR? Isn't the true effectiveness of a reliever the % of inherited runners stranded? Maybe not so much for a closer but for all the other pen arms, this is an essential stat that ought to be mentioned more in pen assessments. I'd like to see Jax's IRS stat, e.g. I believe the 2024 Twins pen ranked in the bottom 1/3 of ML bullpens in IRS which is why this "best bullpen business" is certainly open to doubt.

Nick, always enjoy your columns but why bother on this subject? We all know that Falvey will not do anything until the dust settles. As was the case with his predecessor, Terry Ryan, he will do his dumpster diving in February when players/agents are getting desperate to sign with any major league time. This year, with the team for sale, this pattern will be even more flagrant. Maybe a salary dump or two with the addition of marginal returns that cannot be expected to change things very much. What a more agressive GM would do is package some prospects with our infield surplus(Lee, Julian, Miranda - to name 3) to bring back a middle of the lineup bat and/or a solid rotation arm. This is what is is needed to appreciably change 2025 prospects. Otherwise, a repeat of 2024 or worse is the more likely result, I am afraid.

I like optimism for bmy favorite team, but I believe the rose-colored glasses need to come off. No doubting Jax's amazing year, but how often do even the most elite relievers repeat? I keep reading about Duran's bad luck, excellent stats, etc., but the man lost 9 GAMES! He could bounce back - or he could continue his decline. Sands had a surprisingly good year, but this is one year out of a very mediocre record. Alcala and Varland are far too unpredictable to count on in critical situations. Stewart's injury history precludes him from being counted on. Ditto w/Topa. Bottom line - the FO needs to add a reliable LH reliever and another mid-inning RP to offer the team a reasonable pathway to top billing in 2025. Counting on the existing roster is a fool's errand.

I don't care what all the "stats" tell me. He has eight losses this year - 5 since the all star break. There's no putting lipstick on that stat!

Couldn't agree more! This team is running on fumes and at this rate look like they could miss the playoffs entirely. I was at the Cubs/Twins game when Ryan left due to injury - sort of the icing on the cake, so to speak. No way this team is legitimate contender with 3 rooks in the rotation and our 2 most highly paid players sidelined indefinitely. But there's a lot more to this meltdown than injuries. Top of the list is the maddeningly ineffectiveness of Duran. He has lost 8 games!! Usually W/L are not critical stats for a closer, but when your ace has lost 8 games himself with 30 games left, there is little doubt he is at the top of the culprit list. Isn't it time for Jax to take over? Rocco has made so many inexplicable lineup and bullpen moves it's just mindboggling. Just start with his use of Jax and Duran with a 6-0 lead on Saturday. If Duran is wearing down why use him in a non-save situation? His resting of their top hitters in a day game after a night game has been his set pattern since he started with the Twins. At this point in the season, every game should be critical. And let's not forget Falvine who sat on their hands all season without any meaningful additions. If this team fails to make the playoffs, this is on the FO as much as anyone. Of course, the Penny-Pinching - Pohlads set the table here with the cut in payroll and refusal to allocate $'s at the trade deadline. Yes, there's plenty of blame to go around here! And the Pohlads wonder why team attendance is down.

Agree that Julien is one of the Twins' best trade chips. So to trade him for a reliever, no matter how good, seems a waste, particularly given the team's need to bolster the rotation for the stretch run and hopefully, the playoffs. Isn't it a better idea to shoot higher by packaging Julien with one of our top 5 minor league pitchers and one of our excess OFs(Kirillof/Larnach,/Wallner, e.g) to land a top 3 rotation arm? No question the team will need reinforcement. Lopez has proven to be a big disappointment; SWR is probably near his innings limit; and Paddack is an iffy#5. While it's still uncertain who will be available by the 30th, the FO, with ownership chipping in additional $'s(Gasp!), names like Snell, Fedde, Anderson, Crochet, Blackburn could be within reach with the right package. Any one of this group would provide the extra cushion needed, especially if the lineup slackens from their 2 month surge.

Before we place the tiara atop Jax, what is his % of inherited runners scored? That should be the top criteria for evaluating relievers. In past years, Jax has been below average in this key stat. Just wondering what this year - and June - looked like.

Agree with your outline, but think the priorities need to be rearranged. Assuming Twins mgt. believes they have a solid chance for a playoff spot, the #1 need is a top 3 starter. Last year, with Gray and Lopez, we were competitive. This year, while Lopez has the potential to be our shutdown starter, he has been very erratic - to say the least. Ryan has emerged as a solid 2 but can he be relied on in the pressure-cooker playoff atmosphere? Last year, he wasn't so regarded. None of the remaining starters seem to offer a solid opportunity for a W, at least against the other top 3-4 teams in the AL. The answer is a better pitcher than Ober, et. al. While the supply is murky right now, in a month there should be some shakeout in the playoff teams, with some dropping out, e.g. the Jays, the D-backs, Cubs. The Twins seemingly have an excess of near-ready players/top prospects - one of Kirillof/Wallner/Larnach/Rosario/ Severino, one of Julien/Martin, and one of Raya/Gonzales/Mathews/Culpepper - to reel in a pretty good pitcher, one who can be controlled for one or two years. It will be tough, especially with injuries to Luzardo, Gallen, Sandoval, Garrett, and Freeland, to find the right add, but find him they must. It's just erroneous to hold on to good prospects when the team is playoff caliber. If the Twins nibble around the edges again on Aug. 1st, you know ownership is content with dominating the bad clubs but not competing with the cream of the crop. It looks like Cleveland is for real, leaving the Twins fighting for the Wild Card. With Boston and Houston surging, this path is by no means a slam dunk. The trading deadline is the only way to make a significant upgrade, not shuffling around prospects.

Interesting article! The Sox have some nice talent. Sheets and Crochet should be the only targets but being in the same division, the Sox would want a ton for either one - and Falvey is the last guy to wind up as top bidder. While a corner outfielder would be nice insurance, the Twins have a decent basket of players who can fill the bill, even if Kepler is allowed to leave. Two of Larnach, Kirillof, Wallner, Castro, or Martin are likely to be at least average performers in the corners and while not world-beaters, offer enough potential that going big for another OF seems superfluous. Ditto with Santana/Miranda and 1B. No, the real need is for another starter, one who at the very least can slot in ahead of Ober, SWR and Paddock. There is one candidate - Luzardo of Miami - who has a reasonable chance of doing just that. The fact he's having a down year could work to the Twins advantage in terms of retaining their top 5 prospects. We can put a nice package together with one of our surplus OFs(Larnach, Kirillof, Martin or Wallner), a young pitcher(Varland would be my choice, but we have some intriguing minor league arms not named Festa or Mathews that Miami might want, and then someone like Camargo (Miami is in desperate straits for a catcher) or Gonzales to complete the deal. Get Luzardo and we might even be able to advance past the first or (gasp) even possibly the second round of the playoffs. As the rotation stands now, we have exactly 2 starters who can provide a reasonable chance of keeping a playoff game close - and neither Ryan nor Lopez are sure bets.

Nick, I applaud your "half-full-glass" take on the offense, but I can't buy it just yet. For this wish to materialize, the big 3 of Correa, Lewis and Buxton will have to produce like all-stars most of the last 4 months for this team to have a decent chance to overtake the Guards' 6-1/2 game lead(not to even mention KC's 4 game lead). The average offensive rankings you cited are perhaps not surprising given the absence of these 3, but there are some huge issues with reading too much into these stats. First, the Twins offensive spurt was most noticeable in the 12 game streak, when they won 10 in a row from the dregs of the division - WSox/Angels. Note their record against the top 3 teams in the AL(NY, Balt, Cleve) is 0-11!! Their offense was led by Jeffers, Kepler and at times Castro, Kirillof. Suffice it to say that 2 of those 4 have relapsed(Castro, Kirillof) and the other two have cooled off. Yes, Miranda has provided a lift, yet still, the offense in the last 12 games has been less than robust. There are still too many black holes in this lineup to compete with the top 3 teams. I'm certainly hopeful that Lewis can provide the added spark as he did last year. Still, that is not a foregone conclusion. I have less faith in Buxton. So far he is just a shell of his former glory days. And Correa, while consistent, is far from playing at an all-start level. This all adds up to much more offensive uncertainty than one would hope for in a solid playoff contender. Big question: have we seen a "floor" or is this just reality?

Surprised you didn't lead off your "Lowlights" with Pablo Lopez. While the rotation has been generally good, he has not. Not that I blame him for the Twins roller coaster ride(the offense is the major culprit) but his failure to step up has really hurt this team. Now 7-1/2 games behind, this team needs him to step up now!

Sorry, have to disagree on Alcala. Instead of looking at ERA, look at his %inherited runs scored. What is it? Baldy has found Alcala lacking in paying attention. He's had plenty of time to learn intricacies of the game but has not. Twins need mid-relievers who can go multiple innings. Alcala cannot. Conclusion: don't gnash your teeth over his "mistreatment". He is a marginal piece on an average team. He has no use on a contender.

Hate to burst your bubble here, Nick, but I've got my doubts because: 1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations? A big question mark in my mind. 2. Yes, I think Stewart looks like a stud if he can stay healthy! Again, a big if here. 3. You can talk about Alcala's stuff but yesterday, after a horrid 9th inning against Tiger scrubs, he was taken out as a precautionary measure due to hand soreness. Does anyone believe he can be depended on going forward with his injury track record? 4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST. But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place. Granted this is a pessimistic slant but isn't it just as likely as your take?

You pretty much nailed it. Ownership should get a failing mark. The Pohlad banking mentality seems to permeate the generations. They simply don't understand that if they want to expand revenue, they must invest first, especially on the heels of a successful(at least for this franchise) 2023 season. From the contractor(Carl) to the myopic(Jim) to the inexperienced(Joe) Pohlad, this family has exhibited no interest in bringing another WC to the Twin Cities. As a passionate Twins fan, I'm afraid our only hope is a franchise sale to a non-penny-pinching group. As far as the FO, you might be a tad generous with your B-. My grade : C. They did fine around the edges, but does anyone think this is a better team than the one in the playoffs? How do you lose guys like Gray and Maeda and think that Paddock/DiSclefani will slot in seamlessly as replacements. Right now we have one playoff-caliber starter with many question marks attached. Ryan and Varland are homer prone, Paddack is totally unproven. Ober might fit in well as a #2 or3 but again, still iffy. Why Falvey should get no higher than a C here is simple. He did not move the needle! Sure, ownership didn't help but this org. is just not built to spend the $ to bring in a difference maker, particularly for the rotation. TD has been full of requests for a trade ala Lopez in '23, but FO simply unwilling to pull the trigger on trading one or two of their top prospects. As recent reports out of Seattle indicate, Miller was their target but the twins refused to pony up. Question: would you rather have Lee or Miller come postseason? The Twins seemed on the cusp of becoming a force in the AL even after losing to the Astros. They had a good young core, together with two potential All Stars in Correa and Bux who underperformed badly last year but with a probability of rebounding in 2024. The offense should be improved, but we all know that it is pitching that wins in October. Yes, the FO has bolstered the relief corps, but the rotation is shaky enough to greatly diminish their championship aspirations next fall. The off season has been a major disappointment.