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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    They may carry two starters and 10 relievers into the playoffs with bullpen games 2 and 4. Graterol is one of my 10 or even 9 if they keep a third starter. Even with a start from Perez they still need a lot of relievers behind him. I don’t think Gibson will be healthy enough to start.
  2. jorgenswest
    My eye sees well below average lateral range that can not be compensated for by playing deeper without a strong arm. The DRS and UZR are real and more reliable than a batting average for future projection at this point. Neither is near enough sample. I think we can be confident in the on base skills that have been consistent throughout his professional career. I think we have also seen the quality of his approach at the plate. It shouldn’t be ignored that there also have been questions about his arm and range over his professional career. His bat will play. Like Sano at 3B he is OK at 2B for now but may need to move down on the defensive spectrum as his career progresses. I will leave with a thought for another article. Is the defensive spectrum changing due to the increase in fly balls and the data used to shift infielders. Will corner Of spots be more important defensively than 3B and 2B with this evolution? Maybe 2B is the perfect spot for Arraez.
  3. jorgenswest
    Every playoff game is a bullpen game. I would pitch Berrios game 1 and 5. I would pitch Odorozzi game 3. Games 2 and 4 depend on who looks healthy and is throwing well over the next two weeks.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think the better question is... What contract would you offer Pineda for 2020? I guess that does assume everyone would take him on a minimum minor league deal but maybe that isn’t true. My negotiation ceiling is at one year 8 million (effectively 6 million).
  5. jorgenswest
    He should be ready after his suspension. I recall Santana being able to play in the minors prior to his suspension ending. I also think that they will need someone by that point in the season. Those aren't my concerns. My concern would be that he was masking PEDs and those PEDs helped his performance or kept him healthier. Given those concerns I wouldn't pay more than 8 million (essentially 6 million) for his services. Does he need to sign a contract to begin serving a suspension? I would guess so. If not he might be better off waiting and seeing who needs pitching at the quarter pole.
  6. jorgenswest
    His upside is average defender, average base runner and professional at bats against left handed pitchers.
  7. jorgenswest
    It is hard to see any 2019 upside in Kirilloff. I do believe in his upside and look forward to his bat at 26 and hope that it arrives sooner. He needs to consistently hit in AA first. He didn’t.
  8. jorgenswest
    My first thought with Buxton out and Pineda’s suspension opening up a roster spot was Kirilloff. I then went and looked and he really didn’t perform that well when returning from injury. He had a good end of season but minor league pitching is pretty thin at the end of the season. I think he is up if he dominated AA over the long stretch of the season. He didn’t. He wasn’t close to dominating. A .413 SLG for a power hitter isn’t encouraging. He probably should start at AA and dominate until June before heading to AAA next year. My initial thought to call up Kirilloff was based on hope of who he might be some day based on 2018. I think he has a good ceiling but I don’t think he is anywhere near that ceiling this year and there is no reason it would be different against major league pitching. I don’t see options. It is hard to plan for losing Buxton, Gonzalez and Kepler for a stretch. Add Rooker’s injury and Kirilloff’s set back due to injury and you get Wade and LaMarre.
  9. jorgenswest
    Strawberry signed a free agent contract that off season at a base of 5 years and 20.5 million. Jack had a guarantee of 3 years and 7 million. It was less than the guarantee from the Tigers. He had the incentives to earn 11 million over 3 but that was never going to happen. If he pitched poorly he would get the 7 million. If he pitched well he had an option out so he could go get the going rate for a top starter. The week he signed with the Twins, Clemens signed for over 5 million across 4 years with the Red Sox. Morris got his 5 million when he predicted out and signed with the Jays, The Twins did take advantage of the end of the collusion era to get Morris on a make good one year contract while minimizing their risk. I don’t think the financial burden in that signing compares in any way to the burden of signing the top free agent this winter.
  10. jorgenswest
    If Kirilloff had dominated AA I think it would be different. For much of the year his numbers weren’t remarkable. It was clearly the injury that set him back but he missed that valuable time and couldn’t make the most of the time as he recovered. The Twins should be aggressive as they were with Arcia, Sano and Buxton when players dominate a level. I think they would have been with a healthy dominating Kirilloff.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is whether Pineda took PEDs relevant to the discussion about resigning him? Maybe it matters for that discussion.
  12. jorgenswest
    A few unconnected thoughts... Thorpe and Smeltzer have a chance to step up. If Cave and/or Cruz are injured do they need the roster spot for Kirilloff? He didn’t hit for power returning from injury but that seems behind him now. This has to hurt Pineda’s hopes for a good contract in free agency. Should the Twins be interested in a 1 year deal for his shortened season?
  13. jorgenswest
    I think we will see the playoff roster thoughts these two weeks. If Miller isn’t useful these 12 games from Boston to the second Cleveland series, how will he be useful in the playoffs? Put him in to pinch run now and a deep bench is there to replace him. In the playoffs they are probably have to keep his bat in the line up. So far they haven’t really needed him in spite of some close games.
  14. jorgenswest
    Absolutely they should put Graterol in high leverage. If not don’t put him on the 40. They also should have let him battle the first batter instead of putting him on first after 2-0. Get him back out there in high leverage this week.
  15. jorgenswest
    I sure hope the Twins aren’t making decisions based on a tiny sample of a left on left split that isn’t consistent his larger overall major and minor league sample.. If The Twins are not confident in Buxton’s shoulder I think they need him on the roster. I would want Adrianza over Miller.
  16. jorgenswest
    The home run and run scoring context of 2019 adds a little disequilibrium as I look to the performances of the starting pitchers. Martin Perez has a slightly better than league average FIP- at 99. That doesn’t match my perception of his performance. The other starters have a much better FIP- well above league average. League average starters and better are difficult to acquire. Without question I would make qualifying offers or pick up an option for that performance. I am just having great difficulty balancing the performance that my eyes see with the league normed data found on Fangraphs. Note: Perez has a FIP of 4.58 and an xFIP of 4.61 which is on the other side of league average.
  17. jorgenswest
    I would make the qualifying offer to Odorizzi. I am not concerned about killing the bullpen. It didn’t happen this year. They used the AAA roster to successfully lengthen the bullpen. A 26th player in the roster next year will also help. I would also make the qualifying offer to Pineda.
  18. jorgenswest
    Glad that all three will be with the team for pennant race.
  19. jorgenswest
    I was looking at his split that included his AAA data from this year with the OPS below .700 but a good .379 OBP when both are combined. Perhaps his deficiency is minor league lefties. His defense at 2B is poor by the eye test or by metric. How often do we hear “just out of the reach of Arraez” on the broadcast? Today we got two of those in the 5th. I am starting him against righties but I am not trusting his defense or his longer track record against lefties.
  20. jorgenswest
    Things I would consider... - I like Schoop's defense a little better given his arm - Arraez has not done well in his small sample against lefties. - Schoop has done very well in his small sample against lefties. The samples are small but consistent with their performance in recent seasons.
  21. jorgenswest
    Harper needs to be down 10 days. It was the same for Thorpe but he returned with Gibson on IL. I hope he is brought back as well as Hildenberger and Romero. I am glad to see everyone who contributed on the team on the roster for the drive to the playoffs. Stewart’s moment was a shut down 9th through the heart of the A’s lineup before a walk off win against Oakland.
  22. jorgenswest
    The increase in strike outs is helpful but Gibson still relies on ground balls. The Twins will likely have below average defenders across the infield next year. He may not be a good fit for their defensive strength in the outfield. There will be too many balls just out of the reach of Polanco, Sano and Arraez and too many bad throws extending innings. Those innings with high pitch counts have worn on him this year and he loses command in the strike zone.
  23. jorgenswest
    I would have written the same thing before this season but now I am not so sure. I wonder if it better to not give in. Give everything you have for as long as you can go. Battle every at bat and don’t give in when the counts gets long. Don’t let the batter ambush you trying to get strike one. Battle and trust the bullpen to get the job done.
  24. jorgenswest
    I agree but they are letting him pitch in AAA. He had trouble with command (as shown by walks) prior to be acquired. If that problem has persisted they may not want to give him the spot on the 4.
  25. jorgenswest
    I read the article so much differently than some poking at the comparisons. The opening sentence is about whether a minor league call up can impact the team in September and the playoffs and ends with that question about Graterol. Seems like a fair question. It has happened before with Price and K-Rod. They are very different pitchers but both had significant late season impact for their teams.
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