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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    This is the Jack Morris deal on steroids. I like how that one worked out.
  2. jorgenswest
    I would prefer to pay up for the extra year of control from Montas. Chapman probably isn’t part of that deal.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am concerned about the splits but I don’t think it keeps me from pursuing him. There is an argument that some have not dropped after leaving Coors but I don’t find it convincing. It could be the reason he is still available. I am also intrigued by the possibility of returning Polanco to SS who put up 1.1 WAR over 26 starts at short last year. I realize that there is an increased injury risk at SS but shooting for that upside is worth the risk.
  4. jorgenswest
    Really good move. There we’re 25 teams that passed on Petty and there is little data since to say they made a mistake. The history of the 26th pick produced one career star in Trammell and one very good career in Dave Henderson. Plesac was a good reliever for quite a while. Those are the three success stories in the 57 year history of pick 26. This is a very good trade.
  5. jorgenswest
    What is the value of pick 26? After 57 years of drafting there has been one star player picked in that spot in Alan Trammell. The next best with 27 career WAR is Dave Henderson and then 17 career WAR in Dan Plesac. After that you have two in the 4-5 range in Brent Gates and Jeremy Bonderman. Gray projects in that range for the two years he will be a Twin. The chance of a number 26 pick having a significant career is under 10%. Of course you make this trade particularly for a starting pitcher. Let’s make another.
  6. jorgenswest
    We also need to put a cost on the lost 40 man roster spot given to Henriquez. Henriquez on the 40 will result in someone being DFA’d that otherwise would not have been removed. Henriquez has almost no trade value because of his roster status. Similar players will be DFA’d and the Rangers likely assessed that they were going to lose him at some point this year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Apparently he needed to be put on the 40 starting his options clock. It made me wonder how close he will be to the bottom of the 40. At some point there will be a need to DFA players so that they have enough arms in the pen or a third catcher. Henriquez doesn’t appear ready to be that help when needed in the pen. They will also likely be adding a few pitchers to the 40 and maybe a bat. Can they afford to keep Henriquez on the 40 all year? Even if they keep him his addition will threaten the loss of someone else like Vallimont. The need to put him on the 40 decreases his prospect value significantly.
  8. jorgenswest
    For his 236 innings at SS Polanco contributed 1.1 WAR in spite of below average defense. In 1360 innings Falefa contributed 2.3 WAR thanks to his glove. Polanco’s bat out trumps Falefa’s glove here in a big way. The 2019 line up was awesome because of the contribution of Garver and Polanco at catcher and shortstop. The 2022 line up with Arraez, Garver and Polanco would have been difficult from 1 to 9. Bullpens would be taxed and thinned by the last game of the series. The 2022 line up now looks to have weak bats at 8 and 9. I get the injury risk to Polanco playing him at SS and the injury risk to Garver. It is that the upside of healthy seasons from them that was the path to winning the central. Instead they chose the safety of mediocrity. The Rangers with Falefa as their SS for nearly every inning ranked 19th at SS last year. I would expect the same safe mediocre neighborhood this year.
  9. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are looking for a shortstop or catcher next off season I hope it is new leadership doing the search.
  10. jorgenswest
    BR uses DRS. Fangraphs WAR was 2.3. That is a big discrepancy the Twins must be banking in for a player with no power or walks. This reminds me of the Hicks for Murphy deal. Murphy had a good defensive reputation with an empty .277 and .284 prior to the trade.
  11. jorgenswest
    I read it as another nail in the 2022 coffin. Win protection has to drop after this move.
  12. jorgenswest
    OPS Projections for next years .697, .698, .701 Can his defense really make up for the offense the Twins lose at catcher?
  13. jorgenswest
    Chris Bassitt is 33 years old with ZIPS WAR projections of 2.2, 1.8 and 1.6 the next three years. How long do we want to extend him? How much should we pay to extend to those projections or give up for the 2.2 next year? Kikuchi’s projections are similar.
  14. jorgenswest
    Right handed bat that crushed left handed pitching. There is value here but redundant with my hope for a Miranda role.
  15. jorgenswest
    I guess it depends on whether they can sign someone like Rodon. A trade for Bassitt might move the projection by 2 wins maybe less if compared to signing Pineda instead. Is that enough movement to give up pant significant prospect?
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it would be wise to give up prospect assets for one year of control. I suppose they could trade for Bassitt and then flip him for a hopefully similar return at the deadline.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think many of the guys selected will be happy for the opportunity to earn a major league minimum salary as well as the the opportunity in spite of having to pack up.
  18. jorgenswest
    The high upside lineup play is to start Garver at catcher as much as reasonable. Perez led the league with 120 starts at catcher. That may not be reasonable. Aiming for 100 seems reasonable. Aiming for another 30-40 starts at DH will give him plenty of at bats in a healthy season. I suppose you could argue that they have a better chance at a healthy season and more at bats if he reduced his catcher load. I would still go for the upside. The Twins will need to hit on the upside in several places to be relevant this year.
  19. jorgenswest
    It will be a financial loss to all of the players who would have been drafted and that can’t be ignored. There is also a unique opportunity to see a player in the spring before selection and teams are asking it be dropped for this year. Many are blocking scouts access to workouts. I think there is a middle ground. For teams that have space on their 40, give them an opportunity to add eligible players they did not add in the fall. These additions need to be prior to any movement to 60 day DL. They also should not be in combination with releasing any other players once the lock out ends. Had they been selected and retained these players would have made a minimum major league salary. If added now they should get that salary for next year even if optioned to the minors. Once any additions are made conduct the rule 5 draft. The concern of teams in showcasing eligible rule 5s is at least partially addressed. The concern of players losing out financially is also addressed.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the conditions this year with the opportunity to see eligible players in the spring or potentially the start of the minor league season are much more favorable for teams picking early this year.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Athletic reported the rule 5 draft may be cancelled for this year. The Twins were certainly losers last year in the rule 5. This year they would have been selecting early though I am not sure if they reserved space or two on the 40 for an acquisition. They certainly would have more time to gather information about the available players. Is it better for the Twins to guarantee keeping players like Palacios if the rule 5 is cancelled or should we be hoping for a pickup in the rule 5?
  22. jorgenswest
    It was either going to be lock out now or strike later in the season threatening playoffs. I will take the lockout now. They will play eventually. Meanwhile I was was at a high school baseball last weekend. The close game was entertaining and hard fought. Baseball is a great game whether at the high school level or major league level. I don’t know if the advice about getting out and watching other levels of baseball was sincere or not but I will be finding a game and getting my fill.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think a ban will result in unintended and unforeseen consequences. I can’t see the unforeseen but I do have a thought on one consequence I don’t want. The shifting has most impact on upper cut pull hitters. The same players helping to drive the strike out rates up and balls in play down. If shifting is banned we will see more of these one dimensional hitters who will fare better in those conditions. Let the game adjust to the shift and produce more bat control line drive hitters who use the whole field and bring more speed to the game. We don’t need a rule change to fix this. We need teams that can recognize the talent and skills to beat it.
  24. jorgenswest
    In the era of shifting is team defense ranking more valuable than the individual pieces. The Twins have had one year in the last three where their defense as a team finished in the top half whether by DRS or UZR and that was 2020 when they ranked 8th and 10th. Last year they ranked 28th by UZR and 12th by DRS. It was 25 and 23 in 2019. In 2020 the most common middle infield was Arraez at 2B and Polanco at SS. Maybe the best place is 2B.
  25. jorgenswest
    Do you believe that the Twins would be making a mistake starting Martin over Palacios at SS? Perhaps Palacios is closer to major league ready. Is it based on your assessment that he outplayed Martin? Is that from seeing them play or interpreting the data?
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