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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I suppose it is hard to get to 1500 innings if you are well below average so that set of players may be skewed. Sano is below the median of that skewed group. I looked at the UZR by team at 3B for this year. There are 15 teams above 0 and 15 teams below 0. The Twins rank is second. I don't see support for a conclusion of terrible play at 3B where it would be necessary to move Sano off 3B in the near future.
  2. jorgenswest
    He seems like an inexpensive option. I would prefer they pay up in prospects to get a better reliever.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think people have been wondering if he can stick at 3B since he arrived in 2015. Five seasons and nearly 1800 innings and he has a career UZR150 of -1.1. He has performed as an average 3B. That won’t continue forever but it doesn’t for anyone as they approach 30. Defense declines first. Will he stick at 3B? Is 5 years sticking at 3B? The guys in the Twins front office making a living in baseball see him as a 3B. His performance suggests he will be next year. His performance as close to an average 3B with his power is an asset to this team.
  4. jorgenswest
    Two of his three walks were to Encarnacion and close to intentional. He got the following batter Vogelbach to strike out the first two at bats. It is the third at bat against Vogelbach that was bothersome. He stayed on the outside every pitch of that at bat. He needed to trust his stuff and come in hard inside. Eventually Vogelbach three his bat out there and flared one to left for an RBI. I am not worried about the walks. I do wonder if he is questioning his stuff as he pitches to Encarnacion and even coming inside against Vogelbach.
  5. jorgenswest
    I don’t care what prospect capital they spend to get there but I do care about the bullpen at the deadline. The low bar is acquiring two relievers. One can be a player like Will Smith - a late inning reliever on an expiring contract. The other is an emerging reliever around age 27 with at last one more year of control. Pay in prospects whatever the market demands.
  6. jorgenswest
    I agree. If the Twins are serious about acquiring pitching help they are not starting negotiations with Jake Cave.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins shouldn’t prioritize getting the best deal. They need to prioritize getting the best reliever(s). I don’t want Tony Watson because he can be acquired a good price. Pay up and get a better reliever.
  8. jorgenswest
    He won’t be a free agent until 2024. The Reds might sell high on him having a career year at age 27. He won’t be inexpensive.
  9. jorgenswest
    I trust Kimbrel more than Parker, May, Duffey, Harper... I don’t think he is the best option. I would trust Smith, Giles and Hand over Kimbrel.
  10. jorgenswest
    I would look for one of two types. They need to add someone at the top of the bullpen. There are several on the list up there that would qualify. I would avoid Diekman, Romo and Watson. Older guys used in set up roles, I think I would avoid Givens and Holland also. I would certainly want to dig deep on their command. The other type is the Pressly type. Someone with control that appears to be emerging. Amir Garrett or Robert Stephenson from the Reds might be candidates. They are top 10 in pitch/100 for sliders. Carlos Estevez and Brandon Brennan in that list also. There are a few similar pitchers in the curve ball list. How good is Barlow’s curve ball? It has top 10 pitch value but he doesn’t use it as much as his slider. Scouting is key here.
  11. jorgenswest
    Slugging percentage which is a component of OPS stabilizes at around a full season for a starting pitcher (550 AB). Odorizzi is at 247 at bats. It might be something teams look to at the season’s end to suggest there has been a change on skill level (or not) as they make a free agency decision about Odorizzi. At this point in the season the pitch level data is helpful and the Twins have much better data than we can see. I would guess that they also have some useful batted ball data. Of the traditional result data, strike out rate stabilizes earliest and it is encouraging that his strike out is up while his walk rate remains at career norms.
  12. jorgenswest
    I was intrigued by Brandon Warne’s article in April about Duffey and tunneling. https://zonecoverage.com/2019/featured/funneling-to-tunneling-the-rebuilding-of-tyler-duffey/ The mix of his curve ball with a fastball up in the zone may be the recipe for success.
  13. jorgenswest
    I am not sure what a Hildenberger needed. Was it a mechanical adjustment? If so maybe they have worked it out. We aren’t going to see that looking at results in AAA. Even if we could you might expect them to be bad early as he tried to make changes.
  14. jorgenswest
    There is reason to wonder both the velocity and location of Parker’s fastball. His average 4 seam fastball was his lowest of any game since 2014. He was averaging 93s his last two outings in May. Injury?
  15. jorgenswest
    I appreciate that the team isn’t making line up decisions based on the box score stats of the previous few games. I think Molitor has Kepler on the bench for this one.
  16. jorgenswest
    Is this draft considered weak for first rounders? Do teams still get a comp pick if they don’t sign their first rounder? Would it be to any team’s advantage to have drafted a college bound high schooler and not sign them?
  17. jorgenswest
    Has the John Andreoli transaction been reported? I think he is back in the Seattle organization.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Athletic had a well thought out article today arguing the best landing places are the Rockies for Keuchel and the Cubs for Kimbrel.
  19. jorgenswest
    Left handed batters were 9 for 80 against Chirinos going into the game. I wondered about the Twins line up with 6 left handed hitters. Those left handed hitters had 7 hits against Chirnos. I am glad to see that the Twins aren't swayed by a sample of 80 at bats and I should have known better than to question a line up based on a 9 for 80.
  20. jorgenswest
    I assume they have seen them pitch. Is Kimbrel throwing high 90s or mid 90s? Pay up for the high 90s. Is Keuchel commanding all of his pitches? Does his slider look like the effective slider he had prior to 2018? If so he is a playoff pitcher.
  21. jorgenswest
    Thanks Thrylos. Love your minor leaguer insights. Is there anyone that might be a comp? Numbers sound like Albers but not sure of pitch mix.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins are not using slash stats in samples not even close to reliable to determine who is going to be the better hitter going forward.
  23. jorgenswest
    Scherzer is 2-5. Looking at his game log I think he would be 9-1 with the Twins.
  24. jorgenswest
    He took a baseball in the mouth pregame.
  25. jorgenswest
    Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol still have a lot to prove. Lewis and Kirilloff have not shown that they dominate AA. Graterol has just.200 minor league innings in a career starting in 2015. Anyone of them should be available for a pitcher at the top of the rotation.
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