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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Indians have a better starting rotation. They have a better bullpen. Their best position players are better and more experienced in a pennant race than the Twins best position players. The Indians made bold moves at the trade deadline. It should be a good battle to the end.
  2. jorgenswest
    Hopefully they don’t compound the problem by taking him to arbitration and then dealing with his decline and likely injuries next year. They need to seek a better solution and I fear they won’t if they go the arbitration with him.
  3. jorgenswest
    I value Schoop’s performance against left handed pitching and his strong arm at 2B. I am platooning Arraez and Schoop at 2B.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would think Cave is on the roster until they need a 13th pitcher. I don’t think they are sending down Arraez. Who else would they send out or DFA? I don’t want to add a guy to the 40 when they are two short starts or extra inning games away from needing another pitcher.
  5. jorgenswest
    In order to be helpful as a number 5 starter Smeltzer helps by taking care of the bad teams, keeping his pitch count down so he saves the bullpen against those elite offenses and gives a different look than most of their starters. I don’t know how the rotation falls out for next year and we ought to have a thread for that topic but I would be comfortable with the fifth spot going to someone moving up from the minors and Smeltzer is at the top of my list right now.
  6. jorgenswest
    Duensing was 26 when he arrived so there was a lot less time to improve as a major leaguer. I also don’t think using ERA or its estimators which require a very large sample is helpful in comparing. If Duensing is his floor though it is a good return for a Dozier rental.
  7. jorgenswest
    Next up for Smeltzer is the Indians. A quality start should earn him several more.
  8. jorgenswest
    Neither Romo or Dyson were what I ultimately hoped to acquire but they were the best relievers that moved at the deadline. As far as trusting late they need more than 3 or they will overwork those 3. Duffey needs to join that group and right now he needs to be ahead of Dyson.
  9. jorgenswest
    Duffey might be better. I mean that as a credit to Duffey not a knock on Dyson. He did the work to make changes this year. Brandon Warne did a nice piece last spring about his work on tunneling. He is a two pitch pitcher now with his increased use of the curveball and dropping the change up. He has performed well. To go with his solid ERA he also has not allowed an inherited runner to score this year. His strike out rate is 29.1%. It is time to trust Duffey with the 8th inning.
  10. jorgenswest
    I echo the appreciation on Dobnak’s performance and the resilience to stay in the game when not drafted. He isn’t rule 5 eligible for a year so I don’t expect he will get a spot on the 40 in 2019. As he continues to find success I expect we will see him debut next summer.
  11. jorgenswest
    Listened for the excuse Dyson used. Is it something Rocco said? I didn’t hear it. Is it something Dyson said after the game? I couldn’t find it. Did you mean how long does a follower of the Twins keep getting to make excuses for Dyson? To me that question is very different. I don’t want Rocco or Dyson making excuses. I don’t care if someone not connected to the Twins does.
  12. jorgenswest
    Cruz also takes grounders at second though I don’t think it is preparation for the possibility of playing 2B.
  13. jorgenswest
    Are the Twins odds of winning the AL Central better than they were 1 week ago? Are the Twins odds of winning the ALCS better than they were 1 week ago? If the answer to either of those is “no” how can the deadline be described any other way than at best disappointing?
  14. jorgenswest
    I hope they don’t make a last minute move for a middling reliever. Go big or stay with their roster.
  15. jorgenswest
    If the Twins do nothing... I look forward to listening to or watching tonight’s game I avoid the discussions about what they should have done For now I am still hoping.
  16. jorgenswest
    I hope they go big or do nothing today. The Romo trade grades OK but I think it helps them get to the playoffs but not enough to help them win in the playoffs. I don’t want more deals like this. I’d rather keep the prospect and give the opportunities to the current roster. Don’t get someone that might be a slight upgrade over Duffey but is either a rental or in decline. My fear as taken individually the trades grade OK but does not move the bar in taking on the Astros or Yankees. If they can get a Daniel Hudson for Nick Gordon let’s keep Gordon and develop the relievers in the system. Syndergaard or Smith or Diaz or even a lefty specialist like Watson should be the targets. Aim high.
  17. jorgenswest
    It depends on whether the number is from Pitch f/x for Baseball info solutions. They are different. His pitch f/x zone% is 36.2. Either way he is extreme in how little he pitches in the strike zone and backs that up with getting swings in balls out of the zone at a high rate for relievers only exceeded by Tony Watson. This mix should work well against the inexperienced hitters he will face as the next two months.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am not sure I see how Romo matches up well against the Yankees. Yankee right handed batters crush right handed pitching and are not nearly as effective against lefties. Romo is at his best when batters are swinging at his pitches out of the zone getting ahead in the count. His combo of pitching out of the zone and getting swings on those pitches is extreme. The Yankees are very patient at the plate and work the count though. I know the Romo is better against right handed batters than left handed but most right handed pitchers are better against right handed batters. What is it about Romo that he will be the right handed pitcher that matches up well against the Yankees when most others have not?
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins wouldn’t use an option on Graterol calling him up as long as they don’t return him to the minors. Maybe they will keep him in relief in the minors and give him a look in September.
  20. jorgenswest
    Romo gets more batters to swing out of the zone than anyone other than Tony Watson at 41%. He couples that with hardly ever throwing the ball in the zone at 36.2% (for comparison Watson 42%). This is a successful combination and it takes a patient hitter to work the count and get him to pitch in the zone. I suspect he will be very successful against most of the Twins remaining schedule of teams with inexperienced line ups and help the Twins get to the playoffs.
  21. jorgenswest
    One year deals for number 3 pitchers into their 30s seems a wise direction. I think the Twins should make a qualifying offers to the two they have the most confidence in maintaining their performance.
  22. jorgenswest
    The possibility that a reader could read that article and believe that Cron or Goldschmidt are replacement level is where fangraphs was irresponsible. They even admitted cherry picking by saying that Vogt should have been in the group after an 0-4 but they chose not to include him. The overall message that the Twins might be able to improve at 1B for next year isn’t bad. Sano or Kirilloff or Rooker could be better. Cron has been hitting at the league average for 1B. There is space to improve. I don’t know how to measure his glove. I believe fangraphs uses a measure that relies on a batted ball but a 1Bs value comes from how they deal with throws from infielders much more than batted balls. That could be why there is a huge difference between Cron’s fWAR and bWAR numbers.
  23. jorgenswest
    League wRC+ from first base is 108. Cron sits at 109. Tyler Austin is at 81. I would suggest Austin is at replacement level. They can certainly look to improving on Cron. Kirilloff might be ready. They might move Sano there and utilize Gonzalez at 3B but I don’t see the support for replacement level at 1B.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Yankees right handed batters crush right handed pitching. They do not do nearly as well against left handed pitching. Romo also has had the benefit of coming in to start innings this year. He has not pitched nearly as well with runners on base and certainly did not in 2018 when he has the more difficult role of coming in to put out a fire.
  25. jorgenswest
    I will give a grade if B or even A on this trade. I think the minor league aspect of this trade is a good fit for both teams. I have a different goal at the deadline. I want the Twins to have a top 3 in the pen that can compete with the Yankees and Astros. This deal makes no progress on that goal. Where would Romo fit in either of those pens? So the grade is an incomplete thus far. They still need two very good late inning relievers. My fear is their sites are set winning a deal for a Daniel Hudson instead of breaking the bank for a Ken Giles. This is a nice safe trade.
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