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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think they went with what they believed was the best 25. That decision is always fluid. Today’s best 25 needs some length in the pen. If Cruz or Cron had gone down in the first week they would have looked pretty foolish letting him go before they needed that 12th pitcher. Perhaps he clears waivers at this point a week into the season and accepts the outright to AAA.
  2. jorgenswest
    Dan Hayes reported it was Austin. Cron and Cruz appear to be the better options for this year at DH and 1B. I hoping that Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach and Sano are the better options longer term. Austin’s window is now. I think someone will give him the opportunity.
  3. jorgenswest
    The 11 man staff didn’t last long. The short start drove the need for an addition Chase DeJong and DFA of Tyler Austin.
  4. jorgenswest
    I really appreciate the reports. Thanks. Riley didn’t start. Is he healthy? Nice to see Duffey and Eades with two solid innings each from the pen.
  5. jorgenswest
    I do not see the market for Castro. Maldonado was a free agent and couldn’t get a contract until into spring. They bring a very similar skill set. It is going to take a team that is losing a catcher to Tommy John. It is going to need to be a contender without a good back up option. Every team just passed up on Sandy Leon. Castro is a better hitter but not so much better that he will bring a significant return. Keep all three. The return for Castro will be minimal. Imagine trading Castro and then Garver has concussion trouble. I don’t see anyone ready to step in and catch twice a week in AAA. Assuming everyone is healthy there is enough versatility among the roster to survive a three man bench with Garver, Astudillo and either Cave or Adrianza. They also aren’t stuck with a rule 5 guy at the end of the bullpen. Harper and Hildenberger have options and can be shuttled with Moya, Vazquez, Duffy or Romero to assist an overworked pen keeping the need for 13 temporary.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins are the team that gave Astudillo a shot. The Phillies, Braves and DBacks all let him go as a minor league free agent. Credit to the Twins staff that saw in this journeyman minor leaguer a talent that helps the major league club.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am much more optimistic about Garver. I am a believer in hard work and I think Garver can improve from his poor catching last year and approach average. His bat at catcher will be an asset.
  8. jorgenswest
    If Castro has the skill to reduce the number of pitches in an inning and game that impacts the staff long term. It might help the starter go an extra inning and reduce the load on the pen. It might help the pitcher stay stronger keeping him out of long innings. This has a positive long term impact. Last year Wilson was the main catcher for Berrios and Gibson while Garver was the main catcher for Lynn and Odorizzi. I don’t know how much impact Wilson had on the success Berrios and Gibson. Maybe Gibson and Berrios are simply better pitchers. Would we have been that surprised though if it was Lynn or Odorizzi with the better year than Gibson? How much did Wilson matter? We don’t have the data to make an assessment. We are not in the rooms where catchers and pitchers prep for future games. Maybe that connection is critical. I rely on the staff on this call. I will add that Astudillo has to be in the line up tonight. Play him at catcher or replace him in the line up for anyone other than Buxton or Cruz. Between he and Marwin every position is covered. Put him in somewhere and keep him in at least until someone gets him out.
  9. jorgenswest
    The stats I have seen for bunts are skewed. They only count successful bunts. They don’t count the failed bunt attempts that put the hitter behind in the count and don’t end in a bunt attempt. If the data doesn’t account for those failures all bunters will look pretty good.
  10. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is that easy to bunt. It takes good hands and pitch recognition. It takes hard work which I don’t think anyone doubts about Buxton. The downside of bunting is getting behind early in the count and then having to fight to get back in the count. You really need good pitch recognition to win that battle. He just had a series where he had two hits that rank as his top two exit velocities of his career. I would rather he put the majority of work towards barreling up the ball.
  11. jorgenswest
    An interesting mix to follow... There are some relatively young starting pitchers that have a chance to take a step and show they can be part of the 2020 rotation. Torreyes and Wade provide depth with options should a need arise on the major league bench. Rooker and Gordon have the opportunity show they are ready to fit in as a 2020 starter. Let’s hope Romero dominates and joins the big league pen in a high leverage role this year. Raley, Wiel and Vazquez are all young enough to take a step forward and help the big league club. Rosario and Baldespin are projects to see if they can reclaim their promise from their days as a prospect. There is a lot to follow on this team. I look forward to the daily reports from TD. I so appreciate the hard work of the minor league update crew.
  12. jorgenswest
    Is it reasonable that he gets 2 starts at catcher and 2 starts at 3B a week? Gonzalez can sit one and replace Schoop on the other day. At the point Sano returns maybe he has shown enough to get a bigger share of catcher.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins won the strike zone that day against a pitcher with a Cy Young reputation and a very good catcher. Let’s hope for more strike zone wins. The catching trio is very encouraging to me. I am hopeful about the defense of both Garver and Astudillo approaching average with their above average bats for a catcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    I guess I would wonder about the record for the season prior to the 82-80 or 80-82. Were those teams that fired managers also around 81 wins?
  15. jorgenswest
    You might be better looking to the median of 30 for those 26 for typical starter which is .712. I will take that difference in OPS in return for above average defense at catcher. I would do the same in center field. I would have said the same thing about shortstop but infield shifting may be lessening the impact of great defense at that spot.
  16. jorgenswest
    There should have been no thought to pinch hitting for Castro in the 7th with a two run lead. He rewarded the team in the top 8 with that called strike 3 on a 3-2 count. That was so impactful. With another catcher it could easily have been ball 4. Rogers then needs to go deeper in the 8th with the top of the line up. Maybe he gets out of it but can’t finish the 9th as he would be facing at least Santana. When the Twins are behind in the 7th pinch hitting would make sense.
  17. jorgenswest
    So many positives and Berrios dominated. I really appreciated Castro behind the plate. The Indians were off balance all game. I don’t know if Baldelli considered pinch hitting for him in the bottom of the 7th but he really helped with that last out in the 8th receiving that called strike on the bottom edge of the strike zone.
  18. jorgenswest
    Isn’t WPA a counting stat? Wouldn’t it be far worse to have a poorer WPA in fewer innings? Should we discount a home run title because a batter didn’t have enough plate appearances?
  19. jorgenswest
    Hildenberger and Rogers have options. Les hope all three pitch so well that they stay in the majors.
  20. jorgenswest
    There is a lot of space between below average and bad. I think it is a rare skill set to be play several positions at an adequate level with a bat that is at least league average. I am not confident that his play at SS is still adequate but I think he will be at least adequate at 3B, 2B and LF and provide a good deal of flexibility.
  21. jorgenswest
    Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together? I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up. I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think the teams like Baltimore with a high waiver claim will wait to see who is available on waivers. Why make a deal for Austin? Wait and claim him or claim a similar player.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am not sure of a way to pull that from BR play index but since the number of pitchers per game has increased significantly the number of all types of appearances has likely increased including those that start an inning. I did check for how many appearances were less than an inning. Virtually all of those would result in a mid-inning change with the exception of walk offs. In 2018 there were 4492 appearances of less than an inning and in 1998 there were 3479 for a little over 29% increase. Last year ranks second in those type of appearances behind 2015 (4613). 1998 fits in line with the trend with more than any year previous and fewer than any year since with the exception of 2000 (3474).
  24. jorgenswest
    This is a result of a steadily increasing number of pitchers used in each game. Since so many more pitchers were used in 2018 than 20 years ago that 11% is part of a much larger number. The number of 1 and 2 batter outing has increased significantly since the 90s but not quite as fast as the number of pitchers per game (partly due to shorter starts). Last year a record number of pitchers were used in games making the fourth straight year that record was broken.
  25. jorgenswest
    The trend of pitcher games with 1 or 2 batters faced continues up since LaRussa's use of the bullpen in the late 80's. In 1988 there were 1006 games where pitchers faced 2 or fewer batters. His impact caused a large jump in the 1990s but the trend continues. 1998: 1876 2008: 2057 2018: 2307 2015: 2588 (most) Note: In 1988 there were fewer teams and thus fewer games. From 1988 to 1998 the number of games increased by 15% but the number of short relief stints by 86%. I appreciate that MLB and MLBPA are addressing the number of mid inning pitching changes. My preference would have been to address it by no mound visit/no warm up and no restriction on batters faced but this will help.
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