jorgenswest

With Buxton in CF and likely good range on the other corner I think the Twins can survive some games with Cruz in the outfield.

There will be one player removed now and hopefully at least two other spots as they sign pitchers. It doesn’t matter to me whether they remove an outfielder or pitcher today. I do care that this isn’t the last spot on the 40 they will need to clear.

Editing my comment above... Willians Astudillo is an alternative that could match Sano’s defense and provide some offense at 3B.

I am encouraged by both the reduction in strike out rate and increase in walk rate in 2018.

Good list and they may all go as relievers are added. I would start with those that don’t have options. I think that is Reed and Magill.

To project forward I think you would be better off capturing a bigger sample. Most would look back at least three years. There is too much variability in slash stats due to balls in play and injury. That natural variation makes it appear there is a trend when it is more likely that the skill level has not changed.

Sano at 3B is critical to the Twins success this year. I don’t think there is an alternative in the organization that would be anything other than replacement level at 3B.

Hrbek signed a 5 year extension following the 1984 season extending the team control. He would have become a free agent following the 1987 season after 6 years as a Twin. Kirilloff could be on a similar path relative to age.

In any era the players that show the best hope of being successful rushed are going to demonstrate elite pitch recognition and management of the strike zone. The best we have in numbers is strike out and walk rates but that isn’t sufficient. Pitch recognition goes both ways. Players need to lay off pitches that are not in the strike zone. They also need to demonstrate that recognition of pitches that they should barrel up and attack those pitches. We only have traditional data to try to make that assessment about Hrbek. I would look for... - low strike out rates - high ISO (relative to league) - red flag with high walk rates. ISO isn’t great but the best thing we might have to evaluate barrels. I would be concerned about a very high walk rate particularly when the ISO isn’t also high relative to league. I think this is an indicator that the player is not recognizing pitches they should be attacking or are simply unable to barrel the ball up. Instead of an extra base hit they may fouls that good pitch off or take that pitch only to walk later in that at bat. Aaron Hicks needed more time to recognize pitches he should attack. I think a Hrbek fared well in all three. Of the current prospects I am very encouraged by Kirilloff’s ISO and strike out rates. He has 793 minor league plate appearances. Even the rushed Hrbek had 1008. Signing Cruz is not blocking Kirilloff. He needs more time but with another 300 plate appearances as solid as his first 793 I will join the group advocating for his arrival.

Are these unique views? Are forum discussions and multiple returns to discuss the article (or often something unrelated) all counted as different views?

I would only add that it really isn’t the relievers themselves or their ability that is volatile year to year. The inherit sample of any reliever is too small to be reliable and it is the variablility of a small sample that drives the perception of volatility. This is important in our perception of Addison Reed. We see last year’s number and assume a drop off in skill but that may not be the case. We might have been seeing the 10th percentile results of a reliever his skill level.

Sano is very tough to project. I also think he is more likely than others on the list to find himself in trouble off the field which will impact his play or his status to play on the field.

Opinion or based on projection models?

I don’t think you wait on the HoF. They don’t have a clear borderline. The Twins have done a good job in selection. There is a pretty clear borderline (at least in terms of bWAR in a Twins uniform). Hrbek and Blyleven are the borderline. Knoblauch and Radke are just on the other side. Nathan is another territory for which the border has nor been defined.

Cruz is projected for more WAR than any positional player on the team. Adding a player to the top moves the needle for me. They need to add to the top of the bullpen next.

I should have included Dozier. I was looking at top prospects and I missed him or he wasn’t there. He was 39/142 in A/A+ I think strike zone management manifests itself two ways. For most it is laying off stuff out of the zone. For Hicks and maybe Kepler it is recognizing and aggressively attacking pitches that should be barreled up. The Twins are getting better data in the minor leagues related to both.

Too many years spent in A Ball? Slow played? I think that shifted in this decade. I don’t think our perception shifted? Arcia - 20 games A, 114 games A+ Buxton - 68/87 Sano - 129/56 Polanco - 115/94 Kepler - 61/108 Rosario - 95/60 Hicks - 172/122 Hicks is the only one who needed two years between A and A+. Everyone else was advanced. All arrived at a young age. None arrived with a good idea of the strike zone. Was it because they were moved too fast? Was it a failure of development? Maybe it was an inability to recognize talent. This core of players has changed my view of moving players quickly through the minors. I think it is far better to error on the side of moving too slow. I don’t think it will hurt the ultimate development and it will likely shift a year of service to additional season in a player’s prime.

I used to think that the Twins needed to bring the prospects up earlier to the major leagues. I am certain I debated with Seth the merits of pushing prospects to the majors. I was excited to see Sano, Arcia and Hicks jump from AA. Buxton made the jump after a cup of coffee in AAA. It turns out Seth was right. I don’t see how the rush helped any of the four. It does rush service time though. For Rooker an option would need to be used. I now believe there is a lot of value in AAA and learning to manage the strike zone. I would much prefer an additional season in their prime rather than the ups and downs of a 22 year old season. I really want to see the current group of young players establish an understanding of the strike zone in AAA before they hit the majors. That can happen in half of a season.

I don’t have much hope but he still has an option. There is enough hope in his curveball and strikeout/walk rates to give him another year in AAA on An options shuttle. Let’s hope the new pitching coaches will find the adjustment he needs, I wouldn’t give up his spot on the 40 before Granite’s or Reed’s. Relief pitchers with options will be needed to extend the bullpen.

Nick- Does the Cruz signing reduce the Twins need for Cron? At best his value this year is the difference between he and Austin in 2019 performance. Cron projects at 1.6 WAR. We also have control in 2020 but Rooker or Kirilloff may be in the picture at that point. If you did the rankings with Cruz in mind would Cron slot in the same place given the reduction in need?

I will only argue that slash stats don’t give a good picture of performance. They are far too heavily influenced by BABip and other factors not independent to the batter. I look forward to measures derived from the pitch level and batted ball data. Baseball Prospectus has a new DRC+ that I want to dig into. I would love to see how Kepler, Rosario and Cave measure up. I expect teams are designing even better models. Before the Cruz deal, Kepler was projected for the most WAR among the Twin position players (fangraphs/steamer) for 2019. That projection is based on his numbers the last three years. As always I appreciate the your thoughtful responses. Thanks for the debate.

I am saying that data in smaller samples should not be considered in the decision making process. We rely on the eyes of a skilled staff. The Twins also have a wealth of pitch level data that we don’t see. We rely on the talents of the staff interpreting that data. One partial year of slash stats should have no weight in the decision making progress. There may be pitch level and batted ball data that supports Cave but we see little of that data. It will be a race for organizations to learn how to interpret that data and its reliability in projecting performance. As for Kepler I find the progress in strike out rate and walk rate encouraging. He has good command of the strike zone. He now needs to improve his ability to recognize those pitches he can attack and be aggressive. It was the same with Hicks.

Stats in small samples are not a good measure of future performance. Cave doesn’t have near the sample to project forward based on last year’s major league slash stats. They are not near enough sample to support an argument that he has earned a job. The only traditional measures that become reliable short of a full season of regular play are strike out rate and walk rate. Those measures from last year can give a good picture of plate discipline. Danny Santana had an OPS of .824 in 430 plate appearances his rookie year at 23. He also had 98 strike outs and 19 walks. The Twins should only have paid attention to the strike outs and walks at that sample. They were the best measures of his ability to perform.

Wouldn’t the end of spring training be the right time to try to get Austin to AAA. All teams will be feeling a roster crunch and dealing with players without options. His lack of positional flexibility makes him tough to add as the short side of a 1B platoon. A team like the Mariners would still likely sign a guy like Austin only to DFA him in a few weeks with the hope of keeping him in the organization but the end of spring is still the best time. There will be several players DFA’d and he might not be the best option.

How does the Cruz signing limit their focus on developing a system?