jorgenswest

By WOBA Tyler Austin is Goldschmidt against lefties and LaMarre against righties. I hope the Twins can find a way to keep him as that 13th bat and start him against every lefty. He also is a good option on the bench to come in against that left handed reliever or the threat keeps that reliever in the pen. In order to have 12 pitchers they need the back two in the pen with options matched with a few in AAA. Hildenberger is on my planned shuttle. A rule 5 guy is not in the plan.

I think they signed him because he is young, he has had success and they have reason to believe from their data that 2018 was an outlier. I can’t imagine they would look at slash stat data in this size sample.

I wonder if there is any other place to discuss the stuff that happened before 2019 or maybe we need to start a discussion group called 2019 Minnesota Twins Talk. Looking forward I think Schoop will help the 2019 team. Additionally, I think at least one of Gordon, Arraez or Lewis will be ready in 2020. In the best case, Schoop does well and wants to stay to the tune of a contract similar to the one Escobar received from the DBacks. The void is a good left handed bat with both power and on base ability that will slot in at DH and play a little of a corner spot.

Team OBP correlates with team runs scored. Is it true in every run scoring environment? Maybe not. http://www.banishedtothepen.com/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

His career WOBA against lefties is .387. He is 2018 Paul Goldschmidt against lefties. His career WOBA against righties is .285. With the Twins last year, Ryan LaMarre was .284. I would love to have a Goldschmidt at DH or 1B in the lineup against every lefty. It is the other 72% of the time that needs a plan. Ryan LaMarre is not a good plan.

Is strike zone recognition a talent or a mindset? Some of both no doubt and players do improve their pitch recognition as they see more major league pitches. I think it is more skill and talent than mindset. It is hard to have plate discipline when your pitch recognition talent is weak. Rosario makes up for it with great hands. His pitch recognition will get better but I don’t think his deficit is lack of discipline. I think it is lack of that talent/skill.

I hope he is still a catcher because I don’t think he is a major leaguer without catcher. He can compete with Tyler Austin with the bat and roster spot. They both had WOBAs of .325 last year. They both are 27. They get to their WOBAs in different ways. Garver gets on base more often and had less power. His platoon splits are less extreme and in the reverse direction where he has hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching. As a catcher having less extreme platoon splits is a benefit since mangers are reluctant to pinch hit for that spot. It also helps because it is difficult to platoon catcher by swing as they can often be tied to their own starting pitcher. Austin WOBA is power driven. He has extreme platoon splits. His WOBA is skewed given his disproportionate use against left handed pitching. A more normal distribution with a greater percentage of his at bats against right handed pitching may give us a different picture of his future value. He certainly can hit lefties. This is great as a bench bat and platoon player. It is not so great if he is in the middle of the order and has a key at bat late in the game against a right handed pitcher. I am not sure who is more valuable on the bench (assuming that Astudillo is there as a catcher). Austin has no positional flexibility but can really hit left handed pitching. Garver has more position flexibility but isn’t going to scare a right or left handed pitcher. Which is more helpful to the team? One great skill in the short side of the platoon with little else or a broader set of mediocre skills?

Trading Kepler for A prospects or part of a deal to get a top of the rotation pitcher is a no brainer. I would not move him for lesser prospects. We don’t need another JR Murphy deal. I don’t think he brings in that top prospect or pitcher so I am keeping him. His strikeout and walk rates are trending the right way. His defense in RF is a plus. He may not have any single stand out skill but his all around game is the reason steamer projects him for more WAR than any other Twin position player in 2019.

Just a wonder... Are high strikeout players with an OPS that is homer driven more likely to slumps? Do teams with a lot of these players tend to win their games by multiple runs but lose lots of close games? Why does OBP have a higher correlation to wins than SLG?

In isolation I like this move. Other than Machado, I wouldn’t want to give a multiyear contract to any of the middle infielders only to get one good year and pay for the decline. At 27 Schoop would have been a multiyear option but I don’t see why that would be his interest. The Twins still need a good bat for the middle of the lineup. A bat that they can count on to get on base and drive in runs. A bat that can work a count. They can’t be done with the line up.

I like both deals and I think it shows they believe in the young middle infielders for the near future. I hope they are pursuing a bat that can hit right handed pitching for DH/1B.

The Twins really need a bat against right handed pitching. My preference would be to take the full contract and maybe even get prospect value back. They can also look elsewhere but they must fill this spot.

I would go with the infielder who will take a one year deal. I think this is the position to wait out. The losing team will be the one that spends big on Gonzalez. Through his prime he has a career negative UZR around the infield. He has one fantastic year surrounded by years that won’t work well as a LF. As he declines and has to move away from middle infield I don’t think his bat will play well on a corner.

The Twins can’t count on him for the late innings. If he comes back it needs to be a bonus. They need to plan for him to be a low leverage guy and acquire high leverage help.

Giving a Lance Lynn type a one year 12 million dollar deal is something they should do every year. I think it will be a plus more often than a loss and the loss is minimal on a one year deal. Austin has a really narrow set of skills where he helps. He really hits lefties well. My plan this spring would be to see if he can play RF near a Grossman level. With Buxton the Twins can afford to have one corner with limited range. That allows them to sit Kepler or Rosario against a lefty. If he can’t play OF it is really unlikely he can make a career as the short side of a 1B or DH platoon. The Twins can designate him at the start of the season when all teams are facing a roster crunch. His lack of position is going to make him very difficult to roster for other teams. He may stick and provide depth in AAA. The other hope is that his pitch recognition skill against right handed pitching makes tremendous improvement. That should be a hope and not something the Twins count on. They need to add that left handed bat this winter.

The Twins did not fill any holes in the line up with Cron. Cron is a fine upgrade over Austin against right handed pitching and comparable against left handed pitching but he does not reduce the need for a player like Bour. If the Twins are thinking that a lineup with Cron and Austin against right handed pitching is a good lineup, we need new leaders doing the thinking.

The problem with Austin at DH or 1B is that there is little evidence that he will be a plus bat against right handed pitching. His strike out walk rates vs righties in the minors are not encouraging nor is his performance against right handed pitching in the majors. His best fit was as the short side of a platoon at 1B with the Twins bringing in a left handed bat for 1B. With the acquisition of Cron the Twins still need a good left handed bat for the middle of the line up against right handed pitching. If they go out and sign that left handed bat and he is limited to 1B, I don’t see how they roster three players who can only play 1B. Cron didn’t fill any holes. He is an upgrade over Austin. The Twins still need to fill that hole in the middle of the lineup against right handed pitching.

Looking at the Steamer projections, Kepler is projected for the most WAR among the batters and has a WOBA projection second on the team following Cron. I definitely am not in favor of benching Kepler for the same reason I was hopeful about Hicks. It is really hard to improve the plate discipline skill at the major league level. Hicks had that skill and needed to learn how to jump on pitches he could attack rather than work the count every time. Kepler is in that same place.

Austin is a good hitter against left handed pitching. Is there anything else? That skill would fit really well with a left handed hitting 1B. With the right handed bats of Cron and Garver I don’t see the fit. My concern is that the Twins will not look for another bat and they really need a left handed bat for the middle of the line up. They don’t need Austin unless he is better than Cron. They certainly can’t afford to give a bench spot to a DH in the short side of the platoon.

Grossman has a long track record of solid on base skills. You don’t need to value that skill but partial season slash stat splits are not enough sample to support an different conclusion. He can get on base. That skill has value. He might not bring enough other value but I don’t see many guys on this team that will work a count and draw a walk. If the plan is to bring in a guy with power and on base skills I am all in.

OBP probably most unappreciated stat in baseball. It correlates with wins better than SLG and AVG. Working long counts and making the pitcher throw a lot of pitches in an at bat is a relative weakness on the Twins. While not appreciated Grossman has a track record of getting on base and drawing walks better than most of the roster. Who would you project to have a better OBP next year? I can’t think of anyone. I think I would tender his contract.

It should be noted that Austin’s data is skewed up due to usage. Cron had a more typical usage with 30% of his plate appearances against lefties. Austin was at 38% in his role. When balanced the difference swings much more in favor of Cron. The Twins really need a Matt Adams type to go with Cron.

It might help to start the season with a full bullpen rather than stashing a rule 5 guy and burying a dead arm high salary starter with nothing to offer. Is it a surprise that the real options get overused? Every roster spot matters. That is on the front office.

If really like the move if a left handed DH/1B is added. Austin is spring training insurance and late DFA when other teams are also facing a roster crunch. He will be hard to roster. The Twins have an inexpensive upgrade for Austin’s roster slot. This does not fill one of the holes on the roster. Now they need to upgrade Grossman’s spot.

I don’t think Austin is an option against right handed pitching. His strike out rates against righties through the minors and majors does not project well. I think he will be very good against lefties. Ideally the Twins would have found someone to take the that half of the platoon. Cron is better against right handed pitching but it would be nice to have a left handed bat that could play 1B while sitting him a few times a week. He isn’t someone you want in the middle of the line up against right handed pitching. Cron is likely an upgrade over Austin. If this move means the Twins stop looking for a bat to replace Mauer, I am disappointed.